Pew's final poll

The Pew Research Center has released its final poll. Its results are these:

Obama 49
McCain 42
Other 2
Undecided 7

It estimates that more of the undecided voters will split for McCain than Obama; based on this assumption, it predicts the following will be the spread on election day:

Obama 52
McCain 46
Other 2

The sample size was 2,587 likely voters, and Pew conducted the field work between October 29 and November 1.

Pew makes the following observations:

Obama holds a wide lead over John McCain among those who say they have already voted (32% of all likely voters) or say they plan to vote before Election Day (7%). However, it is not quite as large as it was a week ago. More significant, the race is about even among voters who plan to vote on Election Day: 46% support McCain while 45% favor Obama.

These are the current breakdowns:

Among those who already voted:
Obama 54
McCain 36

Among those who will vote after the poll's conclusion but before election day:
Obama 64
McCain 26

Vote on Election Day:
Obama 46
McCain 45

MSNBC defines its final map

Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann at First Read furnish us their last electoral map. First the numbers, and then the states:

Obama 286
McCain 157
Toss-Up 95

Alright, behind the numbers:

Likely Obama: 227 electoral votes

CA CT DE DC
HI IL ME MD
MA MI MN NJ
NY OR RI VT
WA WI

Lean Obama: 59 votes
CO IA NH
NM PA VA

Toss-Up: 95 votes
FL IN MO
MT NV NC
ND OH

Lean McCain: 34 votes
AZ GA NE 02
SD WV

Likely McCain: 123 votes
AL AK AR
ID KS KY
LA MS NE (the rest of the state)
OK SC TN
TX UT WY

Baracking the Vote in Nevada

In case you forgot, I'm busy this week helping Barack Obama's campaign here in Nevada. And of course, this also means I'm working hard for the Dina Titus for Congress campaign in Nevada's 3rd District. And as I get ready for another hard day of campaigning today in Las Vegas, I want to share with you my experience on the ground yesterday.





First off, the rally yesterday morning was fantastic! We filled up the entire football field AND the whole set of open bleachers at Coronado High School in Henderson to see Barack Obama lay out his vision for a stronger America. It's just amazing to witness how Obama has grown as a candidate. Not that long ago, I wondered where all the specifics were amidst all the talk of hope and change and unity. But now, he can inspire while also fleshing out concrete plans for change on Iraq, the economy, health care, energy, and so much more. Obama has really found his inner Clinton, and I think he's all the better for it.

After the rally, I headed over to Obama & Titus office near McCarran Airport to pick up my assignment. And guess what? They gave me a neighborhood in Henderson's Green Valley community, arguably the most Republican heavy area in the Vegas Valley! I suddenly wondered how much success I'd have with even finding Democrats, let alone Democrats who will vote on Tuesday.

But ultimately, my fears were misplaced as usual. For one, there were as many Obama yard signs as McCain signs up in the neighborhood. Oh yes, and I ran into quite a few Democrats who already voters! Of the many Obama supporters I found at home, only two had not voted yet. And remember, this is supposed to be a "Republican stronghold"! Not bad, eh?

So really, we have good reason to feel good about Tuesday. But still, this election is NOT a done deal for us! Remember that my friends and I here in Nevada still need to turn out the last-minute Obama-Titus voters and persuade those still undecided voters to vote for Obama & Titus! So if you can, please keep up the good work by volunteering and making calls from wherever you're at!

If you work as hard as you can in these next three days, we will win and WIN BIG! So what are you waiting for? Let's go out and win this election, baby!

Gallup Daily Out

The Gallup Daily Tracker is out, and these are the results:

Registered Voters
Obama 52
McCain 41

The numbers were 52-41 yesterday. Today's figure is unchanged from yesterday.

Likely Expanded Voter Model
Obama 52
McCain 43

The numbers yesterday were 52-42. McCain gains a point while Obama's number remains stable.

Traditional Model
Obama 51
McCain 43

Yesterday's numbers were 52-42, so in the traditional model, Obama leads today by eight where yesterday he led by 10.

It's all noise. This race is on autodrive at this point.

Frank Luntz predicts an Obama win

Republican strategist Frank Luntz says:

I cannot foresee a scenario that John McCain is elected president of the United States.

It's around 3:25 or so. Luntz believes that whatever improvements McCain has experienced have been in California, New York, and Texas, that is, in places where it makes no difference. He sees Obama's lead as solid and, perhaps, growing in the swing states that will spell the difference in the election.

Alaska women for Obama

CNN's final poll of the election is out

Bill Schneider on CNN gives his network's last poll of the season. They find Obama has a seven-point lead:

Obama 53
McCain 46

It has a +/-3.0. When they include other candidates in their poll, they gets this:

Obama 51
McCain 43
Others 4

It has +/-3.5. Wolf Blitzer observed that their last polls of 2000 and 2004 went this way:

2000
Bush 47
Gore 45

2004
Bush 49
Kerry 47

CNN's web site has the poll up.

Two changes on CNN's magic map

John King on CNN has flipped Montana from lean McCain to tossup. He also has moved Iowa from lean Obama to strong Obama. McCain says it's not impossible for McCain, but he needs to have a perfect 48 hours.

Their map:
Obama 291
McCain 157
Toss-Up 90

First trackers of the day

Rasmussen is out this morning with these numbers:

Obama 51
McCain 46

That lead yesterday is the same as yesterday when Rasmussen's numbers were 51-46. This is Rasmussen's take away observation:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday once again shows Barack Obama with 51% of the vote while John McCain is five points back at 46%. This is the 38th straight day that Obama’s support has stayed between 50% and 52%.

Research 2000/Daily Kos sees the race this way:

Obama 51
McCain 44

The numbers yesterday were the same, 51-44. Daily Kos poll guru DemFromCT observes:

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +8 Thurs, +9 Fri and +4 Sat with a +5 Wed sample rolling off (rounding can take place.) The Obama video (33.6 million viewers) is reflected today. The +4 (50-46) is the tightest single day sample we've seen in the poll (but one-day samples are very variable.) There has been no major event to change the numbers.

That Saturday number should tell everyone what they need to know about working hard to turn out our vote on Tuesday.

Our own atdnext already shared the news about poor pathetic Zogby. He trumpets his one day numbers the night before last of a one-day McCain one-point lead and has to eat crow the next night:

Obama 50
McCain 44

Yesterday, the numbers were 49-44. Zogby blames bloggers for his crack binge on his perpetual hunt for newspaper headlines:

Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42% . . . . So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too . . . . Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health.

Zogby needs to admit that he is a crack addict before he starts pointing fingers at bloggers.

Hotline is out and records the race this way:

Obama 50
McCain 45

The numbers yesterday were 51-45. The poll finds that 27% of registered voters already have voted.

State polls this morning

A number of state polls are out this morning. They come from different sources, so let's go through them.

First, Pennsylvania is on the minds of many Democrats because the polls have tightened over the last several days as the McCain camp as made a full frontal attack on the Keystone state. Muhlenberg College's tracking poll is out this morning and sees a seven-point race:

Obama 52
McCain 45

The poll was conducted by live telephone interviews between October 29 and October 31; it included a sample of 599 likely voters. The standard error was +/-4.0%.

We have The Washington Poll for the state of Washington:

Obama 51
McCain 39

The poll was conducted by live telephone interviews between October 27 and October 31; tt included a small sample of 387 registered voters. The standard error was +/-5.0%.

Monmouth is out this morning with a poll for New Jersey:

Obama 55
McCain 34

The poll was conducted by live telephone interviews between October 29 and October 31; it included a sample of 801 likely voters. The standard error was +/-3.5%.

Deseret News entitles its article on a poll for Utah, "Poll: Obama gains but McCain remains Utah's choice." The poll observes:

McCain 57
Obama 32

The poll was conducted by live telephone interviews between October 29 and October 31; it included a sample of 1,205 registered voters. The standard error was +/-2.9%.

Ohio University is out this morning with a poll of the Buckeye State. It is riddled with problems, but first the numbers:

Obama 57
McCain 41

I would love to believe this is true, but the poll was in the field too long, and it was released more than a week after the end of data collection. The pollsters conducted live telephone interviews between October 12 to October 23, and they conducted it of 611 adults, that is, neither likely nor registered voters. It seems to me to have been a class project poll.

New Obama ad out

A word on irrational exuberance

I believe in my heart of hearts that Barack Obama is on the road to becoming president of the United States. But I have been listening this morning to a variety of broadcast shows, and the dancing in the streets is a bit premature. Wednesday is the day of dancing. We have not won this election yet, because America does not vote until Tuesday.

You Democrats appearing in the broadcast media, just cut the crap. Get the vote out. If we win, as well we should if we give it everything today, tomorrow, and Tuesday, dance all day on Wednesday.

Tucson, Arizona newspaper endorses Barack Obama

Tucson, Arizona is home to the University of Arizona at Tucson. (I attended summer school there one year in the 1980s as an undergraduate.) It's newspaper is the Arizona Daily Star. The Arizona Daily Star has endorsed Barack Obama for president of the United States:

This moment in history requires courage to change. Our nation must find a way to restore the confidence that our government is of the people, by the people, for the people — all of our people.

We share Obama's vision of America. And we share his urgency.

Live from New York: It's Saturday Night

And, of course, Palin was punked yesterday by radio comedians from Quebec. As The Washington Post attests this morning:

The conversation, captured on a Montreal radio program, was, in a word, embarrassing.

She is a complete tool.

Zogby, Oh, Zogby!

I don't know about you, but I find it highly appropriate that I'm blogging the new Zogby daily tracker from my "smart phone" just as I'm recovering from being drunk & playing my favorite nickel slot machines at the MGM Grand!

Obama 49.5%
McCain 43.8%

And my favorite tidbit from Zogby? Supposedly, they went from McCain +1 in yesterday's sample to Obama +10 in today's sample! Can you believe it? I can't!

So you want to take a bet that John Zogby may just be making these numbers up while drunk & gambling like hell just like me? I don't know for sure, as there may be a chance his poll may really be legitimate. But come on, can you believe it? Uh huh, and I'm a part of the brand new Cirque du Soleil show? hehe ;-)