The Rest of the West: Part 1

About 2 weeks ago, we talked about the rising Democratic tide in The Southwest. Now, I want for us to discuss what's happening in The Northwest. Believe it or not, we have plenty of opportunities up north as well.

Want to come along with me as we look at where we can win in 2010 and beyond?

Let's start in Wyoming. While John McCain beat Barack Obama by 32%, it was an improvement over Bush's 40% margin of victory in 2004. And believe it or not, Wyoming voters twice elected Democrat Dave Freudenthal as Governor while Democrat Gary Trauner twice lost the At-Large House seat by surprisingly narrow margins. We have an opportunity in 2010 to win both races, as Freudenthal is termed out and newly elected GOP Rep. Cynthia Lummis doesn't seem much more popular than outgoing GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin. I see both races as "Leans Republican" now, but that can change if we find good candidates.

Unlike Wyoming, Montana is rapidly trending Democratic. Bush won the state by 20% in 2004, but McCain could only muster a 3% win and Obama may be the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992 to win here in 2012. And better yet, Montana now has 2 Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, and a split legislature. But for some reason, incumbent GOP Rep. Dennis Rehberg is still in office. If we find a strong Democrat to challenge Rehberg in 2010, I think we can make this "Likely Republican" seat more competitive.

Now Idaho may not be trending Democratic as quickly as Montana, but the state is moving our way. Bush's 39% win in 2004 was reduced to a 25% McCain win this year. And better yet, Democrat Walt Minnick scored a stunning upset win over incumbent GOP Rep. Bill Sali in ID-01. But even though Minnick won this year, we must remember that this House seat will be the top GOP target in 2010. This race looks like a "Toss-up" now, and we'll need to work hard to hold ID-01 while continuing to make electoral gains in Idaho.

While all the other Northwest states previously mentioned still tilt toward the GOP, Washington state is quite the different game. Barack Obama won here by 17%, a great improvement over Kerry's narrower 7% win in 2004. Meanwhile, Democratic Governor Chris Gregoire won reelection this year while Democratic majorities in both house of the legislature, both Democratic Senators, and all 6 Democratic House Reps. look pretty safe. However, we have a chance to pick up another House seat in the eastern suburban Seattle WA-08 district. Incumbent GOP Rep. Dave Reichert only narrowly won reelection in 2006 & 2008 in a district that both Kerry & Obama won. If we perhaps find a candidate with legislative experience to challenge Reichert in 2010, we can finally win this "Toss-up" race.

As you can see, The Northwest is undergoing many of the same changes being seen Southwest. Wyoming and Idaho may still look strongly Republican, but Montana has rapidly become a swing state as Oregon and Washington have gone from simply leaning Democratic to strongly Democratic. As the population grows, diversifies, and changes from rural to suburban & urban, Democrats are rising to victory.

As long as demographics change and voters continue to care less about "the culture wars" and more about issues like energy, environmental preservation, and economic development, Democrats will win. That's why our party must continue to invest in winning The West. So are you ready to win?

Tonight's States of the Race

Where should we begin? How about Florida?

St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 42%

And how 'bout those new Rasmussen polls?

Louisiana:
McCain (R) 57%
Obama (D) 41%

Georgia:
McCain (R) 51%
Obama (D) 46%

Washington:
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 43%

Minnesota:
Obama (D) 56%
McCain (R) 41%

The bad news: I guess Louisiana is out of reach.

The good news: Fortunately, we don't need Louisiana to win. However, we are winning all the must-win Kerry states like Washington & Minnesota! Oh yes, and how about Georgia??!! Wow... Georgia!!!!

Conclusion: I hate sounding like a broken record, but if this holds up in the next 12 days we'll be in for a good November 4. So you know what to do now. Make us win & make this win BIG! :-D

The States of the Race: Whoa!

We have some new numbers coming in this morning that are sure to knock your socks off. Please sit down as I reveal the new Portland Tribune (Oregon), Strategic Vision, and Insider Advantage state polls (all others via Political Wire).

Oregon-
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 40%

Strategic Vision:

New Jersey-
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 43%

Washington-
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 42%

Insider Advantage:

Virginia-
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 46%

Colorado-
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 41%

The bad news: OK, let's start with Strategic Vision. They're a Republican polling firm, so I'm not too surprised that they show some fairly ugly numbers in Washington and New Jersey. If other polls confirm this, we can start worrying. Otherwise, they're most likely outliers.

The good news: Now, let's move on to those Portland Tribune poll. The new Oregon poll contradicts Rasmussen's small 4 point lead for Obama, but it also goes a little beyond the other polls showing a 7-9 point advantage for Obama. So most likely, the race is somewhere between Rasmussen and Portland Tribune. This would most likely mean Oregon's now leaning Democratic (as in no longer a toss-up state), and perhaps Obama's reason to continue campaigning here is to help downballot (like Jeff Merkley for Senate).

And finally, Insider Advantage... Yowzer! Their Virginia poll shows a tiny McCain lead, which mostly falls in line with other polls of this state (a range of McCain +2 to Obama +4). However, their Colorado poll looks quite surprising. No other poll of this state has shown either Obama or McCain with a double-digit advantage, so I'm a little tempted to call this an outlier. But since Insider Advantage usually has a good track record, I don't want to just flippantly dismiss them... Let's wait to see if other polls confirm their findings.

Conclusion: Whoa! ;-)