MN-Sen: Franken by 224?

It may happen. The Minneapolis Star-Tribune now projects that Al Franken will win the recount by that many votes. Crazy, huh?

Well, it'll be nice to see Paul Wellstone's seat filled by another solid Minnesota prairie progressive. Let's hope it happens. :-)

BREAKING: Mark Begich WINS Senate Race in Alaska!

Hooray! Senate seat #58 is OURS! Democrats are closer to the 60 seat dream.

This is breaking on MSNBC. I'll grab a linky as soon as I can get one. Right now, convicted felon & Republican incumbent Ted Stevens is trailing by 3,724 votes. Right now, there only about 2,500 votes left to be counted.

So yippee, Democrats win... IN ALASKA! You betcha! :-D

And Now, The 2010 Election!

You think it's too soon? Think again! We have ourselves more vulnerable Republican incumbents... Including a Senator in Florida! (via MyDD)

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist remains overwhelmingly popular with a 68 - 18 percent job approval rating that makes him a strong favorite for re-election in 2010, but Sen. Mel Martinez's 42 - 33 percent approval rating makes him much more vulnerable, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
[...]
Although Sen. Martinez gets a somewhat favorable job approval rating, only 36 percent of voters say he deserves another term, while 38 percent say no and 26 percent say they are not sure. If the election were today, 36 percent say they would vote for Martinez while 40 percent would support his unnamed Democratic opponent and 24 percent are undecided.

As soon as we have a candidate in Florida, it might be a good idea for us to invest in this campaign. Hey, why don't we want another Democratic Senator from The Sunshine State? ;-)

Where We Stand Now

Hey, everyone! I justed wanted to update you on where we stand electorally. I don't think you'll want to miss this! :-D

- Barack Obama looks to win the popular vote 52.4% to 46.1% and the electoral vote 365-173. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico have all flipped from red to blue. No state went from blue to red. Missouri currently looks to be going VERY narrowly for McCain, but as provisional votes are still being counted and a recount quite likely to happen, there's still a possibility Obama may win here as well.

- Democrats look to pick up at least six more Senate seats with three more seats still too close to call. Graduated All-Star Mark Udall won in Colorado while All-Stars Jeff Merkley in Oregon, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, and Kay Hagan in North Carolina all won & are headed to the Senate. Meanwhile, C4O All-Star Jim Martin in Georgia is going to a run-off election next month as C4O Rising Star Al Franken in Minnesota may still win as provisional votes are being counted and a mandatory recount looms ahead.

- In the House, Democrats have so far gained a net twenty seats with six seats still too close to call. C4O All-Stars Dina Titus (NV-03), Martin Heinrich (NM-01), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), John Boccieri (OH-16), Debbie Halvorson (IL-11), Gary Peters (MI-09), and Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) have all won & are on their way to Capitol Hill. Meanwhile, C4O Rising Stars Glenn Nye (VA-02) and Eric Massa (NY-29) have also won and are both on their way to Congress. So far, it's still too close to call for C4O All-Stars Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15) & Charlie Brown (CA-04) as provisional ballots and likely recounts may still change the outcome.

So are you excited about the change that's coming to Washington? I know I am! So congrats, everyone! WE WON! :-D

-

Quinnipiac's Final Battleground Polls

Are you ready? Well, here they are! Let's take a look.

Florida:
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 45%

Ohio:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 43%

Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 42%

The bad news: Florida is awfully close!

The good news: OMG, we may actually win Florida??!! And Ohio? And win comfortably in Pennsylvania? If anyone had told me this two months ago, I wouldn't have believed that person. But now, it seems quite possible.

Conclusion: So how do we make the possible into the actual? WE WORK! So don't stop now! Keep up the good work, and I know we'll win! :-D

Zogby, Zogby, Zogby!

You know you want it. You know you must have it. You know you need your Zogby fix, so here are today's numbers!

Obama (D) 50.8%
McCain (R) 43.7%

Zogby shows Obama steadily growing a larger lead. Let's see if the other pollsters confirm this in the morning. Still, it's always fun to see what new wild numbers Zogby comes up with! ;-)

GWU Battleground

Whoops! Where's the "tightening" that was promised? Not even GWU Battleground is showing any "tightening" for McCrazy!

Obama 49%
McCain 45%

McCrazy lost 1% from yesterday, so what was a 3% lead for Obama has increased 1% to a 4% Obama lead. Again, if even the least favorable polls for Obama show no "tightening", then McCrazy's in for a rough weekend. ;-)

And Finally, ABC-Washington Post...

ABC-WaPo is in, and here are today's numbers:

Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 44%

No change from yesterday. And again, no clear evidence of "tightening". McCrazy wants to believe that victory is in his reach, but it's now our job to make sure it doesn't get anywhere near him.

So far, so good. ;-)

IBD-TIPP Is In

Let's see where they have the state of the race.

Obama 48%
McCain 44%

Obama's +1 from yesterday, so he now has a +4 lead. So if the most conservative (in more ways than one) pollster so far this cycle shows a stable or slightly growing Obama lead just before we start to see post-30-Minute-Ad numbers, then I guess we're in good shape. ;-)

Here's Gallup!

And what's the surprise? No surprise, really. Obama's still leading, no matter how you want to count it.

All Registered Voters:
Obama 50%
McCain 42%

"Traditional" Likely Voters:
Obama 50%
McCain 45%

"Expanded" Likely Voters:
Obama 51%
McCain 44%

Since yesterday, Obama lost 1% in All Registered Voters, gained 1% in "Traditional Likely Voters", and stayed the same among "Expanded Likely Voters". Basically, Gallup shows us a stable +5 to +8 Obama lead.

Nice. ;-)

Today's States of the Race

Brought to you by Allstate & National Journal! They've released their new set of swing state polls. To get a better sense of what's happened in the last 10 weeks, I've included their Mid-September numbers in parentheses.

Ohio:
Obama 48%
McCain 41%
(Was 41-42 for McCain)

Virginia:
Obama 48%
McCain 44%
(Was 41-48 for McCain)

Colorado:
Obama 48%
McCain 44%
(Was Obama 45-44)

Florida:
Obama 45%
McCain 44%
(Was Tied 44-44)

North Carolina:
Obama 47%
McCain 43%
(NC wasn't polled in September.)

The bad news: NJ shows a closer race than most other pollsters in these swing states.

The good news: LOOK AT THE TRENDLINE! Obama has risen dramatically in the last 10 weeks! He's gone from losing all these states except Colorado to leading in all of them. That's nothing short of breathtaking.

Conclusion: Again, we should NOT count on "winning" before we make it happen! Perhaps the trend is moving in our direction... Or perhaps not so much. Whether we're just barely ahead for leading by a mile, nothing really counts until after the polls close on November 4. So what are you waiting for? Get out and MAKE VICTORY HAPPEN! :-D

Nevada Early Voting UPDATE

Here's the latest news. Democrats have been outnumbering Republicans in early voting turnout so far by a 48%-34% margin in Washoe County (Reno) and a 52%-30% margin in Clark County (Las Vegas). And to put things further into perspective, Bush won Washoe County by 4% in 2004 while Kerry won Clark County by 6%. So far, SO GOOD for Democrats! ;-)

My Take on The 30 Minute Ad

I can promise you that I will always tell you what I think and where I stand. I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face.

I will listen to you when we disagree. And most importantly, I will open the door of government and ask you to be involved in your own democracy again.

That was Barack Obama in tonight's 30 Minute Ad. And honestly, I thought the whole ad was BRILLIANT! I never cried during a political ad before. But just an hour ago, I was crying.

Why was I crying? It was real. I related with those people who are suffering under the current Bush-Cheney-McCain regime. I related with Barack Obama's family and what they go through everyday. Basically, I got what Obama was saying & I could tell he felt my pain.

Wait... He felt my pain? Yes, it was utterly CLINTONIAN! Obama is now channeling the same empathy and understanding that President Clinton had. This clearly helped elect Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and I now fully believe this will now help Barack Obama in 2008.

So all in all, this was a great success. Barack Obama used these special 30 minutes as well as he possibly could. He connected in a way that McCain may never be able to do. But still, we must NOT be complacent. We must now join Barack Obama in working as hard as we can to make victory happen.

We only have 5 days left, so let's go out & win this election! :-)

Afternoon States of the Race

Brought to you by Rasmussen!

Alaska:
McCain (R) 57%
Obama (D) 41%

New Mexico:
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Minnesota:
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

The bad news: I guess Alaska's not flipping blue any time soon.

The good news: We don't need Alaska to win! However, we DO need Minnesota & New Mexico. And so far, Obama's safely ahead in BOTH states. As long as Obama wins these & the other states where he's leading outside the margin of error, he wins next week.

Conclusion: Keep up the good work! We're almost there! ;-)

What Can We Expect After Tonight

Obviously, all of us are curious about what may or may not happen after Barack Obama gives the "closing argument" of his life on national teevee tonight. How will "swing voters" react? What will Obama supporters do? How will the McCrazy campaign respond? All these questions and more are swirling in my head, and I'm sure you've been thinking about it all as well.

So what happens? I guess there's no way for us to know until after it happens. Still, let me offer some words of encouragement.

First, the Obama campaign knows what it's doing. For us to think otherwise is needless worrying. If anyone can do something to "seal the deal" in this final week, I'm sure the smart strategists at Chicago HQ have designed this half-hour presentation to do just that.

Second, how the heck can a 30 minute primetime special on Obama's solutions for our troubled economy hurt us? For all the talk among the radical righties about this causing "a massive backlash", they're simply hoping for the nearly impossible. After all, remember how they all bragged about how "McCain will cream Obama in the debates"? Yeah, how did that work out for them? When we talk about the real-life concerns facing real Americans, Democrats win. And with the GOP desperately trying one more time to distract us with "lipstick" and "socialists" and "terrorists", now's the perfect time to redirect the conversation back to what matters.

And finally, let's not forget the facts on the ground. Democrats have been voting early in greater numbers than Republicans, something that's totally unprecedented. Democrats have a better ground game also this year, something that's also unprecedented. So far, we're doing well. But still, why take any risks in the last week? Why not give Democrats one more reason to be "fired up & ready to go"? This 30 minute program may be able to do just that.

So there. We have reason to feel good going into tonight's historic media event. While we shouldn't be cocky and complacent, we do have every reason to trust the campaign's judgment and do all we can in these last days to support our candidate and our party.

Ugh, IBD-TIPP...

Well, I guess yesterday was a fluke. Their numbers today pretty much reverted back to Monday's.

Obama 47%
McCain 44%

I guess the silver lining here is that aside from their occasional wild swings both ways, IBD & TIPP have shown a fairly stable 3-4% Obama lead. And if the most pessimistic pollster has Obama ahead 3% nationally while most of the rest have a 5-10% Obama lead, then we're not really in all that bad shape less than a week out from the election. ;-)

Whoops, No "Voter Fraud" in Nevada!

The Nevada Secretary of State has issued a report debunking all the myths of "VOTER FRAUD!!" that the Rethuglicans tried so hard to push. Oh noes, so how will McBush & Failin' now be able to suppress enough votes to win The West? Haha. Hooray for Nevada! Let the people vote!

GWU Battleground

GWU Battleground is in, and here's what they say:

Obama 49%
McCain 46%

No change from yesterday. It will be OK. Just breathe.

Well, at least that's what I tell myself. ;-)

MORE States of the Race!

So you can't get enough state polls? Well, here are some more polls from Quinnipiac that show what's happening in the three biggest swing states.

Florida:
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 45%

Ohio:
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 42%

Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 41%

The bad news: Florida is close.

The good news: Florida is close, so McCrazy's original plan to "bank" on The Sunshine State's 27 EVs isn't working! Also, Obama still looks to be running away with The Buckeye State & The Keystone State. If Obama wins Ohio & Pennsylvania, then it's all over on Tuesday night... WE WIN!

Conclusion: Again, DON'T LET UP! Keep working. Keep calling. Keep walking. As long as we work for it, we will win! :-D

The Morning's States of the Race

AP-GfK has released a new round of state polls, so let's take a look at what they're showing.

Florida:
Obama (D) 45%
McCain (R) 43%

North Carolina:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 46%

Ohio:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 41%

Virginia:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 42%

Colorado:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 41%

Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 40%

Nevada:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 40%

New Hampshire:
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 37%

The bad news: Florida and North Carolina look tight.

The good news: Obama still has the edge there in these crucial final days. And even better, Obama leads far outside the margin of error in all the other states reporting! With states like Colorado and Nevada & states like Virginia and Pennsylvania showing such strong leads for Obama, it looks like "the firewall" is holding up and he has at least 300 EVs firmly in his corner.

Conclusion: Still, we can NOT afford to be complacent! The national polls suggest that a little tightening may be happening, so we need to work as hard as we can to secure all these leads in all these states. So please, let's keep up the good work and win this election! :-D