And Now, The 2010 Election!

You think it's too soon? Think again! We have ourselves more vulnerable Republican incumbents... Including a Senator in Florida! (via MyDD)

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist remains overwhelmingly popular with a 68 - 18 percent job approval rating that makes him a strong favorite for re-election in 2010, but Sen. Mel Martinez's 42 - 33 percent approval rating makes him much more vulnerable, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
[...]
Although Sen. Martinez gets a somewhat favorable job approval rating, only 36 percent of voters say he deserves another term, while 38 percent say no and 26 percent say they are not sure. If the election were today, 36 percent say they would vote for Martinez while 40 percent would support his unnamed Democratic opponent and 24 percent are undecided.

As soon as we have a candidate in Florida, it might be a good idea for us to invest in this campaign. Hey, why don't we want another Democratic Senator from The Sunshine State? ;-)

Quinnipiac's Final Battleground Polls

Are you ready? Well, here they are! Let's take a look.

Florida:
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 45%

Ohio:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 43%

Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 42%

The bad news: Florida is awfully close!

The good news: OMG, we may actually win Florida??!! And Ohio? And win comfortably in Pennsylvania? If anyone had told me this two months ago, I wouldn't have believed that person. But now, it seems quite possible.

Conclusion: So how do we make the possible into the actual? WE WORK! So don't stop now! Keep up the good work, and I know we'll win! :-D

MORE States of the Race!

So you can't get enough state polls? Well, here are some more polls from Quinnipiac that show what's happening in the three biggest swing states.

Florida:
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 45%

Ohio:
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 42%

Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 41%

The bad news: Florida is close.

The good news: Florida is close, so McCrazy's original plan to "bank" on The Sunshine State's 27 EVs isn't working! Also, Obama still looks to be running away with The Buckeye State & The Keystone State. If Obama wins Ohio & Pennsylvania, then it's all over on Tuesday night... WE WIN!

Conclusion: Again, DON'T LET UP! Keep working. Keep calling. Keep walking. As long as we work for it, we will win! :-D

LA Times Sez: Obama Ahead in Ohio & Florida

Whoops! McBush may just be losing the two last swing states he was banking on for victory. Here are the new LA Times-Bloomberg polls out:

Ohio:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 40%

Florida:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 43%

These are McCain's last hope of a win in a week. If he loses either of these states to Obama, stick a fork in his White House chances. So come on, you know what we need to do... Keep working until we WIN! :-)

Hooray for Florida!

Early voting has just been extended, thanks to an executive order from Gov. Charlie Crist (R). Yes, you heard me right. For once, a Florida Republican actually did something to help people vote!

So whatever Crist's motivations were, we here at C4O are glad that more Florida voters will actually be able to have their say. :-)

The Morning's States of the Race

Brought to you by Politico-Insider Advantage!

Florida:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 47%

Ohio:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 42%

The bad news: I guess Florida is close.

The good news: Still, remember that this is the first time Politico-IA has shown Obama ahead in Florida, so he's still moving in the right direction. And OHIO??!! Wow, Obama is REALLY pulling ahead in The Buckeye State! This is the fourth consecutive poll this week (along with Big Ten, Qunnipiac, and Suffolk) showing Obama ahead far outside the margin of error in Ohio, so there's obviously real movement happening here. I guess it's about time that Ohio catch up with the rest of The Rust Belt.

Conclusion: Florida & Ohio may not be key to Obama's victory this year, but they still are key to a large Democratic victory vs. a narrow win. If we can win one or both states, we'll likely see a landslide that gives Obama a BIG mandate AND sends far more Democrats to the House & Senate. That's why it's critical that we NOT give up, NOT get complacent, and keep working until we win & win BIG! :-D

Tonight's States of the Race

Where should we begin? How about Florida?

St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 42%

And how 'bout those new Rasmussen polls?

Louisiana:
McCain (R) 57%
Obama (D) 41%

Georgia:
McCain (R) 51%
Obama (D) 46%

Washington:
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 43%

Minnesota:
Obama (D) 56%
McCain (R) 41%

The bad news: I guess Louisiana is out of reach.

The good news: Fortunately, we don't need Louisiana to win. However, we are winning all the must-win Kerry states like Washington & Minnesota! Oh yes, and how about Georgia??!! Wow... Georgia!!!!

Conclusion: I hate sounding like a broken record, but if this holds up in the next 12 days we'll be in for a good November 4. So you know what to do now. Make us win & make this win BIG! :-D

Florida, Florida, Florida!!!

It was all about The Sunshine State in 2000... And PPP hints that it may be all about this state again in 2008.

Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 47%

Still, there's a difference this year. Unlike Gore & Kerry in the past, Obama does not need Florida to win. Still, this state is critical for us to win. Why?

I have a hunch that what happens in Florida may determine how big of a win Democrats have on November 4. If Obama narrowly loses Florida & Democrats stay even (probably trading in FL-16 for FL-24) or pick up just one net House seat, I think we'll probably be in for a comfortable but still fairly close 3-6%, ~300 EV Obama win along with a moderate 5-7 Senate seat pickup & 10-20 House seat pickup. Not bad, and I certainly won't cry. But still, we may later grumble about missed opportunities.

But if Obama wins Florida & Democrats pick up a net 2-4 House seats here, expect a landslide. Because Florida's run consistently slightly behind the national average, an Obama win here on November 4 will likely mean a larger 6-12% popular vote & 330+ EV national Obama landslide win AND a hearty 7-10 Senate seat pickup & 20-30 House seat pickup. Now do you see what I mean?

Florida makes the difference between a narrower Democratic victory & a wider Democratic victory. While I'm satisfied with either scenario, I obviously want us to work as hard as possible to win as BIG as possible. Now's our chance, so let's take it! :-D

And btw, about Florida...

In case you missed it, here's the new Reseach 2000 poll of Florida:

Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 45%

Nice. The Sunshine State seems to be going our way. If we keep up the good work, I know we can win. :-)

States of the Race: New Rasmussen Polls

Here we go!

North Carolina:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 48%

Ohio:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 47%

Virginia:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 47%

Missouri:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 47%

Florida:
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 46%

The bad news: North Carolina is a tie.

The good news: North Carolina is a tie! And better yet, Obama now leads in Missouri! If Obama wins The Show-Me State, this election is OVER. Same goes for Ohio, where Ras for the first time shows Obama ahead. And finally, Obama's leads in both Virginia & Florida seem to be stabilizing.

Conclusion: This map being shown by Rasmussen is simply remarkable! If this holds up, Obama wins hands down. Let's make sure this dream becomes reality! :-)

More States of the Race for Sunday

In case you missed it, let's review the other state polls out today:

Univ. of Cincinnati of Ohio:
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 46%

Mason-Dixon/Las Vegas Review-Journal of Nevada:
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 45%

Research 2000 of Florida:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 44%

The bad news: According to the University of Cincinatti, McCain still has an edge in Ohio.

The good news: Its new Buckeye State poll, however, shows a closer race than it did last month... So at least the trend falls in line with other polls showing Obama gaining here. Same goes for Mason-Dixon in Nevada. While the poll's internals baffle me and they show a closer race than other recent polls here, they did show McCain +7 in August... So at least the trend for Obama is consistent with other recent polls. Meanwhile Research 2000 shows, like all the other recent polls, that Obama now has an edge in The Sunshine State. Florida has gone a remarkable transformation in only a month from a "Lean Republican" state to one where Obama may actually have a small advantage.

Conclusion: Overall, good news. The states of the race look good for Democrats. If we keep this up, we'll be in for a good November 4. :-)

Obama Makes His Move in Florida

Many thanks to MyDD diarist RandyMI for finding this! Still, I disagree with his assessment of this move to The Sunshine State. Obama is now sending top campaign officials to finish the job in Florida & direct more resources to winning here. Some may call this "crazy", but I think it's brilliant.

Why? Let's see. Florida is second only to Nevada in forecloures. Florida is suffering from job losses due to the weak real estate market and sluggish tourism. At this point, I think Florida is in that second tier of "Red States" (along with Nevada & Colorado) almost as likely as Iowa, New Mexico, and Virginia to turn blue this fall.

So why shouldn't Obama double down in Florida? If he wins Florida, he wins the election hands down! Oh yes, and we have a number of competitive Congressional races in The Sunshine State... So why not also maximize coattails in electing as many Democrats as possible? This is a win-win situation that can really solidify our chance of taking back The White House AND increasing our Congressional majority! :-)

Today's States of the Race

Brought to you by TPM Election Central!

Mason-Dixon of Florida:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 46%

Public Policy Polling of Ohio:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 43%

Muhlenberg of Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 38%

Research 2000 of Nevada:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 43%

Survey USA of Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 40%

Survey USA of Wisconsin
Obama (D) 52
McCain (R) 42

The bad news: I see none here!

The good news: As we discussed in DC's post, Obama is starting to pull away in Nevada. However, it's not limited to The Silver State! With the exception of Mason-Dixon's new Florida poll (which now looks different from the other FL polls because they all show Obama farther ahead!), everything else here looks fantastic! McCain's chances in Pennsylvania continue to dim while Obama takes the lead in Ohio. Obama's doing a terrific job swinging the swing states our way, and hopefully the debate tonight will only help us more.

Conclusion: This map looks like a dream come true for Democrats. So we can make it real? Yes! Keep donating, keep walking, keep calling! We're so close now... We can do it! :-)

Tonight's States of the Race

Rasmussen has some new state numbers for our viewing pleasure, so let's take a look at them!

Ohio:
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 47%

Virginia:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Missouri:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 47%

Colorado:
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 45%

Florida:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 45%

The bad news: Ohio??!! McCain's still slightly ahead in Ohio? Rasmussen says so, but they contradict just about all other pollsters that have recently shown Obama's numbers rising in The Buckeye State. So is Ras right and everyone else wrong? I don't know, so let's wait and see.

The good news: At this point, Obama's fortunes don't lie with Ohio alone! After all, Ras is yet another pollster showing Obama up by a healthy margin in Florida! If Obama can secure Florida, then it's truly game over... We win! Also, Obama has rebuilt a lead in Colorado while also taking the lead in Missouri. If Obama wins all these states and Virginia, then we're in for a sea of BLUE on November 4!

Conclusion: Now's a good time to give Obama an extra lift up if you're in Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Missouri, or Ohio! And no matter where you are, now is the perfect time to give some $$$ to local parties and Congressional candidates in these states. Let's make sure we maximize on a Big Blue Wave! :-)

This Morning's States of the Race

Brought to you by Insider Advantage (via TPM Election Central)!

Georgia-
McCain (R) 50%
Obama (D) 44%

Nevada-
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 47%

Florida-
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 46%

The bad news: Where? Georgia, perhaps?

The good news: If Georgia's within single digits, then McCain's in deep sh*t! And with yet another poll showing Obama ahead just to the south in Florida, the sun's really shining on Democrats here! Oh yes, and how about those sunny numbers from Nevada? They may be The Silver State, but Obama may actually win "The Gold Medal" thanks to Nevada!

Conclusion: Obama now looks to win all the Gore 2000 states... Also known as all the Kerry 2004 states - New Hampshire + Iowa + New Mexico. This makes for 260 electoral votes (EVs). If Obama also holds New Hampshire, that brings him up to 264 EVs.

So where can Obama find the additional 6 EVs to put him over the top? Let's start with Nevada. Nevada's 5 EVs bring Obama to 269 EVs, so he needs only 1 more EV to win. Any combination of Colorado, Virginia, Florida, and/or Ohio will take him there.

See why it helps Democrats to be able to compete in all these states? ;-)

What's up in Florida

Looking good!



:-)

Florida Turning Blue?

Public Policy Polling says it can happen this year.

Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 46%

Why is this happening? Simple. It's the economy again, stupid! The economic turbulence is the #1 issue in Florida, and Obama is favored 55-40 on the economy. Oh yes, and the "Palinpalooza" debacle is also hurting McCain. Floridians now narrowly say 41-40 that they're less likely to vote for McCain because he picked Palin, which is down from 45-34 saying they're more likely.

So what does this mean? Florida's seriously in play for Obama! As long as Obama continues to make connections on the economy and turns away McCain's distractions, Florida may end up going blue this year! :-)

Florida Heats Up!

Hot off the presses! Here's a brand spanking new NBC News poll that you're sure to love!

Florida-

Obama 47%
McCain 45%

No, I'm not kidding! This is the first poll since August that has shown Obama take the lead in The Sunshine State. And again, the renewed focus on the economy is causing Floridians to take another look at Obama.

This is terrific news because this means Obama has more options to reach 270 electoral votes. While it's likely he'll get there by way of the "Big 3" Western Swing States of Nevada (pure toss-up, baby!), New Mexico (now leaning Democratic!), and Colorado (so far, so good) and/or Virginia (looking better and better for us). But if Obama can also compete in Florida, this means he'll have another option to win... And another battleground to force the McBush GOP campaign to fight in. As long as our options remain open through November, we'll be in good shape to win! :-)

States of the Race: The "Oh!" in Ohio

Can Ohio once again be the final determinant in who becomes our next President? The new round of state polls suggest so. Here, take a look.

Quinnpiac University:

Florida-
McCain 50%
Obama 43%

Pennsylvania-
Obama 48%
McCain 45%

Ohio-
Obama 49%
McCain 44%

Public Policy Polling:

Colorado-
Obama 47%
McCain 46%

Well, Colorado also still looks to be in a position to swing the election Obama's way. At this point, Obama has five main roads to victory:

1. Win all the Kerry states + the 3 Western Swing States of Colorado + New Mexico + Nevada.

2. Win all the Kerry states + Iowa + at least 2 of the 3 Western Swing States of Colorado + New Mexico + Nevada.

3. Win all the Kerry states + Iowa + Virginia + at least one of the Western Swing States of Colorado + New Mexico + Nevada.

4. Win all the Kerry states + Florida.

5. Win all the Kerry states + Ohio.

So do you see how Ohio can be a complete game-changer? If McCain loses Ohio, he loses the White House. It's really that plain & simple. And if Florida & Virginia go to McCain on 11/04, we'll all be focusing once again on Ohio. As long as we win Ohio & win the Western battlegrounds, we win the White House. :-)

Rasmussen Sez: The States of the Race Look Good!

Phew! After the cacophony of national tracking polls, we're now starting to get a better look off what the ground game looks like. We now have new state polls from Rasmussen (via TPM), and we overall have good news. While Ohio looks difficult, Virginia & Pennsylvania haven't moved while Obama's trending up in Florida & Colorado.

So without further adieu...

Ohio-

McCain 51%
Obama 44%

Virginia-

McCain 49%
Obama 47%

Florida-

Obama 48%
McCain 48%

Pennsylvania-

Obama 47%
McCain 45%

Colorado-

Obama 49%
McCain 46%

If these kinds of numbers hold up, we can breathe a sigh of relief. I'm starting to get the feeling that as Florida and/or Colorado goes, so does the White House. :-)

UPDATE: For everyone freaking out over the daily tracking polls, Rasmussen just released today's new numbers:

Obama 48%
McCain 48%

Hmmm... It looks to me like the "McSurge" has just ended. ;-)