Nevada: Up Close & Personal

(Proudly cross-posted at MyDD, Swing State Project, Motley Moose, Clark Community Network, & Open Left)



Last weekend, I was lucky enough to see the state of the race for myself. I traveled to the heart of Battleground Country. Because Nevada's 5 electoral votes are up for grabs and two Nevada Republicans may lose their House seats this fall, I wanted to do something to help. That's why I packed my bags, took some spare change for my favorite slot machines (NOT!), and made sure my family in Henderson had an extra bed for me to crash on.

I went to Vegas, baby, and I'm giving you the full report on what's happening there!





Luckily for me, my cousin's house is in the eye of the electoral storm. She lives in the 3rd Congressional District, the part of Nevada where Obama needs to win to carry the state... And the district where a Dina Titus win will give Democrats the majority in Nevada's Congressional Delegation. So when I left my house on Friday, I was thrilled to go to a place where I can double the impact with the same amount of time!

When I arrived in town on Friday night, the Presidential Debate was just ending. I had listened on the radio while my friend Harriet and I were driving up the 15, and I was personally impressed by Obama's performance. Still, I was anxious to find out what my moderate-conservative Republican cousin in Henderson thought about it. And to my surprise, she was also impressed!

Believe it or not, my Republican cousin will be voting for Democrat Barack Obama this fall. Why? Believe it or not, she may be upper middle-class... But she and her husband are still only a couple paychecks away from losing their home. Their house has now lost about $80,000 of its value while they still have to pay an "interest only mortgage" that's now after the "interest only" period. They consider themselves blessed that they have a beautiful house in a great neighborhood just down the hill from the most exclusive estates in the Las Vegas Valley, but they still fear what would happen to them and their two kids if one of them were to have a health scare or lose a job. That's why both my Republican cousin and her Democratic husband are voting for Obama.

And you know what? This isn't an isolated case. In fact, I would find more of this the following two days when I strapped on my tennies and hit the pavement.







On Saturday morning, I regrouped with Harriet and joined with all the other California Obama volunteers who drove to Nevada for the weekend. Before we were sent off to knock doors, we were given the lay of the land. In just four years, Nevada has turned from a Republican plurality state into a state with 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans! In the 3rd District alone, Democrats now have a 29,000 voter registration edge! And now in previously GOP friendly Vegas suburbs like Henderson, voters are afraid of losing their jobs, losing their health care, losing their houses, and losing the middle-class American Dream they thought they had achieved. That's why it was critical to get volunteers like us on the ground here to explain to voters what Democrats like
Barack Obama and Dina Titus will do to help working people.









So that's what we did over the next two days. We knocked doors. We talked to voters who still had doubts about Obama. We urged Obama voters to vote early. We reminded everyone not to forget Dina Titus and the state legislature candidates.

Oh yes, and we also listened. We listened as retirees told us about their health care worries. We listened as young people were telling us about their plans to finish college and get a real career. We listened to parents telling us about how they want to leave to their kids a better nation and a healthier planet. We listened to Democrats thrilled about a chance for us to make history (in a good way!). We also listened to Indpendents and Republicans, who have never voted for a Democrat before in their lifetimes, tell us that Barack Obama is the only candidate who they can trust with our nation's future.

And believe it or not, I could count the number of McCain supporters we encountered on our walks with one hand. Even though we were mainly walking middle-class and upper middle-class neighborhoods in leafy (for the desert) suburban Henderson, hardly anyone on our lists turned out to be McCain supporters. This just goes to show how Southern Nevada's changing and how much the people who live here are yearning for real change.

Now I know my experience in Las Vegas last weekend was only a snapshot of what's really happening in Nevada right now. However, I must admit came back on Sunday feeling more confident of the Democratic operation in Nevada. We have a real chance of winning and winning BIG here... But only if we support our Democrats!

There's plenty we can all do to help Democrats win this year. We can drive. We can walk. We can call. And yes, we can give. So please join us in helping in any way you can. The stakes are too high, and we can't afford to lose this time. Let's win, and let's take our country back!

More signs of senescence in McCain

John McCain on Sarah Palin quoted from Political Ticker at cnn.com:

This is not the first time that I've seen a governor being questioned by some quote, "expert." I remember that Ronald Reagan was a "cowboy." President Clinton was a governor of a very small state that had "no experience" either. I remember how easy it was going to be for Bush I to defeat him. But the point is I've seen underestimation before. I'm very proud of the excitement that Gov. Palin has ignited with our party and around this country.

Obama over McCain in Florida

Public Policy Polling released data today that put Florida in blue territory:

Obama 49
McCain 46

Naturally, the economy is on everyone's mind this yesterday, and I am willing to bet there are a lot of distraught retirees in the Sunshine State this afternoon:

64% of poll respondents named the economy as their top issue, and within that group Obama holds a 55-40 lead.

Moreover, PPP continues to believe that Sarah Palin has become a drag on the Republican ticket:

Another factor driving movement in Obama’s direction in Florida is Sarah Palin’s rapidly declining standing with voters in the state.

Diageo-Hotline Sez: Obama's Surging Where He Needs To!

We have some great news from Diageo-Hotline with their tracking poll today! You just have to see it to believe it.

Among registered voters surveyed in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin and Nevada, Obama tops McCain 50 to 40%. Just a week ago, Obama led 45% to 42%.

Nationwide, Obama leads 47% to 41%.

Whoa!! So Obama's +10 in just the "Big 10" swing states? This is terrific! If he wins all these states, he'll be a shoo-in on November 4!

Let's see what the other polls say in these states before we celebrate prematurely, but this sign bodes awfully well for us. :-D

Pssst. Do something. Send this video to your friends.

Send this video to your friends and ask them to pass it along.

It is an absolutely devastating indictment of McCain's lack of understanding of the crisis that engulfs the nation. The time is ripe. Let's make this baby fly with pretty wings.

Here is the url, so you can cut and paste:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4egXbhSOhk

First Two Tracking Polls of the Day

Rasmussen has numbers out today that suggest Obama must have had a good day of polling yesterday. For the first time in this poll, he moves past 50 percent:

Obama 51
McCain 45

Rasmussen observes that this is:

the first update with results based entirely upon interviews conducted following the first Presidential Debate.

Meanwhile, Obama continued his ascent in the Research 2000/Daily Kos poll with his first double digit lead in that poll:

Obama 51
McCain 41

DemFromCT notes:

On successive days, Obama was up +9 Sat, +11 Sun and +11 Mon (MoE +/- 5.1 for individual days.)

Two polls that show Obama at 51. As people a bit younger than I am sometimes observe, "Sweet."

They've Got the Fear

(cross-posted at Motley Moose, MyDD, & Daily Kos)

That's right, the GOP is terrified. They're skittish, they're nervous, they're running scared. Not from Obama, of course.

No.

They're afraid of Sarah Palin.

Honestly, can we blame them? Her record is sad enough, but her performance in interviews is abysmal. Anything unscripted, and she's in trouble. Here we have Ms. Palin seeming none too sure about what that mysterious "Bush Doctrine" might be:



At first I thought they were just a trifle nervous, but since the Couric interview their reaction to her seems to more closely resemble outright horror. And her performance was unquestionably both horrible and terror-inducing. If John McCain reaches the White House, a woman who thinks living near Russia gives her foreign policy experience is going to be a mere heartbeat (and a 72-year-old heartbeat at that) away from the Presidency. McCain is frightening, but Palin far more so. From the environment to healthcare, her positions are about as offensive as they come. Her position on abortion, a repudiation of it even in cases of rape and incest, is one which nauseates most staunch conservatives. If we think think Roe is in danger under the assault of a McCain administration, more unsettling still is the thought of the all-out crusade Palin will wage against it. If we're nervous about the prospect of having a president who doesn't know the difference between Sunnis and Shiites without Joe Lieberman whispering in his ear, we should be doubly terrified by the prospect of having a president who seems to believe that trade missions to Russia qualify as a form of negotiation with a foreign power.



CBS News reports that skittish conservatives are now asking Palin to bow out.

Palin, new to national politics, boosted Republican presidential nominee John McCain in polls and excited the party's core conservatives when he chose the first-term governor for his ticket.

Some of that shine has since worn off in polls.

And no plea has been louder or stronger than that of conservative columnist Kathleen Parker, who has desperately begged Palin to exit the race gracefully for the sake of her country. Once an enthusiastic supporter of the young governor from Alaska, Parker now writes:

When Palin first emerged as John McCain’s running mate, I confess I was delighted. She was the antithesis and nemesis of the hirsute, Birkenstock-wearing sisterhood — a refreshing feminist of a different order who personified the modern successful working mother.

[. . .]

It was fun while it lasted.

Palin’s recent interviews with Charles Gibson, Sean Hannity, and now Katie Couric have all revealed an attractive, earnest, confident candidate. Who Is Clearly Out Of Her League.

No one hates saying that more than I do. Like so many women, I’ve been pulling for Palin, wishing her the best, hoping she will perform brilliantly. I’ve also noticed that I watch her interviews with the held breath of an anxious parent, my finger poised over the mute button in case it gets too painful. Unfortunately, it often does. My cringe reflex is exhausted.

Palin filibusters. She repeats words, filling space with deadwood. Cut the verbiage and there’s not much content there.

[. . .]

If BS were currency, Palin could bail out Wall Street herself.

What to do?

McCain can’t repudiate his choice for running mate. He not only risks the wrath of the GOP’s unforgiving base, but he invites others to second-guess his executive decision-making ability.

[. . .]

Only Palin can save McCain, her party, and the country she loves. She can bow out for personal reasons, perhaps because she wants to spend more time with her newborn. No one would criticize a mother who puts her family first.

Do it for your country.

Laughable though it is that Ms. Parker should describe the ultimate anti-feminist as a charasmatic feminist icon, she makes a number of good points (even a broken clock is right twice a day). Another conservative columnist Kathryn Jean Lopez, who could still be described as a Palin supporter, seems almost as disturbed by her party's nominee for vice president as her peers, writing:

But I also watch these interviews and I cringe a little. That Russia answer with Couric. Oy. It was a loaded question to be sure. But I thought a certain governor of Alaska had told us this was a time for no blinking. For (Uncle) Sam’s sake. You’re Sarah Palin. You’re governor of Alaska. You’re the mom of five. You’re married to a tough guy. You can handle America’s Former Sweetheart. And yet, you didn’t. She may have come off catty, but you came off hesitant and unprepared. What happened to the pitbull? I see the lipstick.

I don’t know Sarah Palin. Having missed the last cruise to Alaska, I’ve actually never met her. National Review wasn’t on her list of stops this week in New York. So I can’t pretend to know what her wiring is all about. But I know I like a lot of what I’ve heard her say. I also know a lot of what I like about her could be projection. I’m not where my friend Kathleen Parker is — wanting her to step aside to spend more time with her family and Alaska — but that’s not a crazy suggestion. She's right to say that something’s gotta change.

My personal disgust for Palin is off the charts. As a former (and current) Clinton supporter, my vision momentarily went red when she attempted to compare herself to Hillary. Using her "18 million cracks" line and asserting that she could prove capable of breaking the glass ceiling herself -- after doing nothing, accomplishing less, and offending the sensibilities of every reasonable American -- infuriated me. One would be hard pressed to find someone more opposed to Palin as a candidate and as a person than I am. Still, even I cringe watching her interviews. A great deal of cringing followed by a greater amount of laughter. But I almost feel sorry for the people who feel obligated to support this woman. Even my mother, once a Palin fan herself and a proud Republican, admitted after seeing clips of the Couric interview that she's terrified of the idea of Palin running the nation.

So how does the GOP respond?

As everyone will recall, first they managed to harass the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates until it was agreed that the vice presidential debate format would allow for shorter answer segments, their hope being that Governor Palin would have less time to embarrass herself, her state, her party, her running mate, and her nation. From the New York Times:

At the insistence of the McCain campaign, the Oct. 2 debate between the Republican nominee for vice president, Gov. Sarah Palin, and her Democratic rival, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., will have shorter question-and-answer segments than those for the presidential nominees, the advisers said. There will also be much less opportunity for free-wheeling, direct exchanges between the running mates.

McCain advisers said they had been concerned that a loose format could leave Ms. Palin, a relatively inexperienced debater, at a disadvantage and largely on the defensive.

Now it seems that the McCain campaign has shipped Palin off to Arizona for "debate camp", apparently a more intensive exercise than the usual debate prep a candidate typically receives. Meanwhile the Obama camp is wisely playing the expectations game with the media, touting Palin's (undoubtedly formidable) debate skills and anticipating a lively, spirited debate between Palin and Democratic vice presidential nominee Senator Joe Biden. With current expectations for Palin's performance being set so low in the wake of three painful interviews, we have legitimate reason to fear that a mediocre performance would be lauded by the MSM as outstanding. At this point, the Obama campaign building her up as a talented debater is a skillful move.

"We've looked at tapes of Gov. Palin's debates, and she's a terrific debater," Plouffe told reporters on a conference call. "She has performed very, very well. She's obviously a skilled speaker. We expect she'll give a great performance next Thursday." [...]

"She's obviously prepping this weekend in Pennsylvania," Plouffe continued. "Anyone who watches any of her previous debates would be impressed by her debating skills."

There was a time when I was afraid of Sarah Palin. She fired up the lethargic conservative base (though she fired ours up as well) and got the sort of positive media coverage Barack and Hillary could only dream of. But her star has fallen, the MSM and the country are onto her. She'll do more to sink McCain's campaign than he will (and he's currently doing his utmost). So thank you, Governor Palin. Stay in the race. Make a fool of yourself Thursday night as we watch and laugh.

Do it for your country.

Today's States of the Race

Courtesy of TPM Election Central, here are the new Fox-Rasmussen state polls out today:

Colorado:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 48%

Florida:
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 47%

Ohio:
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 47%

Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 42%

Virginia:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 47%

The bad news: Ohio seems static. Obama gained ground for a while and brought the race here back to a tie about 10 days ago. But ever since then, there hasn't been much movement. I wonder why, especially with the economy being such an important issue here.

The good news: Whatever movement we haven't seen in Ohio has more than been made up for in Florida! Not that long ago, I was wondering if The Sunshine State was starting to look safe for McCain. But with the ugly economic clouds covering the bright sun here, the state of the race has shifted. Without a doubt, Florida is DEFINITELY winnable for Obama now... Perhaps even more so than Ohio at this point. Obama's investment in Florida is certainly paying off.

Meanwhile, Obama maintains an egde in Virginia and Colorado while also building a larger lead in Pennsylvania. If this keeps up, Obama has a much easier path to 270 EVs than he had just a month ago.

Conclusion: I'm feeling better now that I'm seeing these numbers. :-)

Obama Up in North Carolina? Yes!

In case you missed DCDemocrat's post, Public Policy Polling has a new North Carolina poll out. You've got to see it to believe it!

Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 45%
Barr (Lib) 3%

Whoa! Could this be the beginning of a McCrash? He really bombed today in taking credit for "the success of the bailout bill" this morning... Then shifting to blame Obama when the bill failed in the House. Since a full 64% of North Carolinians view the economy as Issue #1, they're paying attention to what happens with this financial crisis. And with every new day of downright psychotic McCrazy behavior, his poll numbers fall some more.

And with Charlotte being the nation's #2 banking hub (after New York), McCrash may be burning himself now.

BONUS: In the Senate race, Kay Hagan now has an 8% lead over "Free Liddy" Dole!

A friend emailed me and had this to say:

I hate to be a moral relativist, but given the behaviour of the McCain campaign during this race, I think it would be ridiculous to argue that anything that is a factual statement about Cindy or Johnny (McCain) would be off-limits or unfair. Frank Rich points out that if Michelle were addicted to drugs, their daughter was pregnant out of wedlock, Barack had finished at the bottom of his class, Joe Biden was a complete fucking idiot, Barack and Michelle had met and apparently become engaged while each was married to someone else, Barack visited casinos at least monthly for 22 years while also purporting to oversee them - well, the election would go 100% to McCain. Instead, because the white guy is the one without morals, it's a close race.

Meanwhile

Public Policy Polling suggest Obama leads McCain in North Carolina:

Obama 47
McCain 45

Says PPP:

Last week the two were tied. In the previous survey the economic polled as the biggest issue for 58% of North Carolinians, a new record. This week that figure increased to 64%. Obama has a 55-38 advantage with voters who name the economy as their top concern.

Something to Cheer You Up

Dammit, today's been horrible. The Dow fell another 6% and the Nasdaq another 9% over the collapse of the financial recovery bill. The Republicans are now trying to use this to scare us all again... Though fortunately now, we all know this is all their fault (see how wonderfully deregulation works?). And to make things worse, I'm still feeling tired & sick now.

But hey, let me help if you need a reason to smile now. Because I love you all so much, I'm sharing all my Las Vegas pics with you! Please enjoy. And yes, I'll make sure to have a full report tomorrow. :-)

Obama Urges Calm

Barack Obama has urged the markets and the American people to remain calm. He added:

One of the messages I have to Congress is, get this done, Democrats. Republicans, step up to the plate . . . It's required for us to stabilize the markets.

Meanwhile, McCain is hiding under his bed: Kind of reminds me of Bush hiding on 9/11.

McCain wanted the credit

McCain, according to Ambinder, wanted the credit when the bill was passing. Said his chief strategist before the defeat of the bill:

What Senator McCain was able to do was to help bring all of the parties to the table, including the House Republicans, whose votes were needed to pass this.

Now that the bill has gone down to defeat and the markets are crashing, I imagine McCain will accept the blame. I mean, after all, that's the kind of guy he is, right?

Second Two Tracking Polls Out

The Diageo Hotline poll is out. They see the race unchanged from yesterday:

Obama 47
McCain 42

Gallup Daily also sees the race as even with where it was yesterday, but their spread is eight points:

Obama 50
McCain 42

So to sum up for today, all the polls show an Obama lead that ranges between five and none points; three of the polls today show McCain at 42, and one of them says that it's 45. Conversely, one poll says Obama has 51; two say he has 50; and one says it's 47. Anyway you slice it, Obama continues to lead McCain.