Zogby, Zogby, Zogby!

You know you want it. You know you must have it. You know you need your Zogby fix, so here are today's numbers!

Obama (D) 50.8%
McCain (R) 43.7%

Zogby shows Obama steadily growing a larger lead. Let's see if the other pollsters confirm this in the morning. Still, it's always fun to see what new wild numbers Zogby comes up with! ;-)

GWU Battleground

Whoops! Where's the "tightening" that was promised? Not even GWU Battleground is showing any "tightening" for McCrazy!

Obama 49%
McCain 45%

McCrazy lost 1% from yesterday, so what was a 3% lead for Obama has increased 1% to a 4% Obama lead. Again, if even the least favorable polls for Obama show no "tightening", then McCrazy's in for a rough weekend. ;-)

And Finally, ABC-Washington Post...

ABC-WaPo is in, and here are today's numbers:

Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 44%

No change from yesterday. And again, no clear evidence of "tightening". McCrazy wants to believe that victory is in his reach, but it's now our job to make sure it doesn't get anywhere near him.

So far, so good. ;-)

IBD-TIPP Is In

Let's see where they have the state of the race.

Obama 48%
McCain 44%

Obama's +1 from yesterday, so he now has a +4 lead. So if the most conservative (in more ways than one) pollster so far this cycle shows a stable or slightly growing Obama lead just before we start to see post-30-Minute-Ad numbers, then I guess we're in good shape. ;-)

Here's Gallup!

And what's the surprise? No surprise, really. Obama's still leading, no matter how you want to count it.

All Registered Voters:
Obama 50%
McCain 42%

"Traditional" Likely Voters:
Obama 50%
McCain 45%

"Expanded" Likely Voters:
Obama 51%
McCain 44%

Since yesterday, Obama lost 1% in All Registered Voters, gained 1% in "Traditional Likely Voters", and stayed the same among "Expanded Likely Voters". Basically, Gallup shows us a stable +5 to +8 Obama lead.

Nice. ;-)

Ugh, IBD-TIPP...

Well, I guess yesterday was a fluke. Their numbers today pretty much reverted back to Monday's.

Obama 47%
McCain 44%

I guess the silver lining here is that aside from their occasional wild swings both ways, IBD & TIPP have shown a fairly stable 3-4% Obama lead. And if the most pessimistic pollster has Obama ahead 3% nationally while most of the rest have a 5-10% Obama lead, then we're not really in all that bad shape less than a week out from the election. ;-)

GWU Battleground

GWU Battleground is in, and here's what they say:

Obama 49%
McCain 46%

No change from yesterday. It will be OK. Just breathe.

Well, at least that's what I tell myself. ;-)

Our Final Trackers for Today

It's OK to breathe. Really.

ABC-Washington Post:
Obama 52%
McCain 45%

IBD-TIPP:
Obama 48%
McCain 44%

Phew! ABC-WaPo is unchanged from yesterday, while IBD-TIPP shows Obama +1 from yesterday. All in all, it looks like we have a stable Obama lead.

Keep up the good work & we'll win this election! :-D

Today's First Trackers

Let's see what they're telling us.

Research 2000:
Obama 50%
McCain 43%

OK, it looks a little scary at first. However, remember that Sunday's Obama +5 number is included in today's average. And with yesterday being Obama +6, it looks like we may start to see a recovery over the week.

Rasmussen:
Obama 51%
McCain 46%

No change from yesterday. Of all the trackers, Rasmussen has been clearest in showing a stable race. We've seen Obama at or above 50% and with a 4-8% lead for about a month now, so this reassures me.

Diageo-Hotline:
Obama 50%
McCain 42%

Nice. The same numbers for three days in a row. Let's hope these numbers hold over the next and final week!

So far, so stable, so good. Let's wait & see how the other trackers report.

Diageo-Hotline Sez: No "McSurge" Here!

Diageo-Hotline is in, and it looks like there's no "McSurge" to be found.

Obama 50%
McCain 42%

Whoops! McCain actually lost 1% from yesterday's numbers. Obama now has an 8% lead. Overall, it looks so far like the race remains stable... Which looks good for us. :-)

The Morning's Trackers

Here we go! Just after the "news" of a "tightening race" in the Zogby poll, some were expecting a new "McSurge". Well, guess what?

Research 2000 Tracking:
Obama 51%
McCain 40%

Rasmussen Tracking:
Obama 52%
McCain 44%

It ain't happening! So far, the state of the race is stable with a comfortable Obama lead. Again, while we should NOT become complacent in these numbers, we also shouldn't start worrying over nothing.

So far, nothing scary... It's OK to breathe. ;-)

First trackers of the day

Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 52
McCain 45

The numbers yesterday and the day before were, 51-45.

Rasmussen observes:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That seven-point lead is Obama’s largest in nearly two weeks. This is also the first time since October 11 that the Democratic candidate has reached the 52% level of support, his highest total of the year.

Research 2000/Daily Kos reports this morning:

Obama 51
McCain 41

The numbers yesterday were the same, 51-41.

DemFromCT comments:

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +9 Mon, +12 Tues and +10 Wed. Today's polling will completely reflect Colin Powell's endorsement.

Zogby sees Obama's number essentially stable but McCain's dipping by two points from his position yesterday:

Obama 52
McCain 40

Yesterday, the numbers were 52-40. Zogby vouches for his sample by noting that he he believes other samples do not include enough of the young, Hispanics, and college-educated voters, demographics where Obama has real strength:

Democrat Barack Obama has slowly built a 12-point lead over Republican John McCain, consolidating support among young voters, Hispanics, and independent voters while McCain's support, even among his Republican base, is fading heading down the stretch.

Zogby also has some other interesting trends, particularly among those who already have voted:

Obama is leading by 29 points among independents, 22 points among those who have already voted, and also holds leads among every age demographic group. He holds a 50-point lead among voters under age 25.

Diageo Hotline reports their numbers this morning:

Obama 48
McCain 43

The numbers yesterday were 47-42.

ABC-WaPo Sez: No McSurge Here!

ABC-Washington Post is in the hizzy! And oooh yeah, it shizzles my bodizzle! ;-)

Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 43%

Oh yes, and what did they also say? That voters' confidence in Obama's ability to be Commander in Chief is now equal to that of Bill Clinton's in 1992? HELL TO THE YEAH!

And the McTrolls say McBush is in a "McSurge" because one outlier AP poll has f*cked up results with REALLY f*cked up internals? Eh, let 'em have their AP outlier. I'll take all the trackers reporting today... Even Zogby!

So should we get complacent? NO. But should we now worry about some nonexistent "McSurge"? NO! Keep working hard, and all these good polls will come true. ;-)

Update by DCDemocrat: The Post observes:

Former secretary of state Colin Powell's endorsement provides a new boost for Obama, who has made significant progress with voters as a leader in international affairs. But Obama also continues to be lifted by more fundamental advantages, including a 2 to 1 advantage on "helping the middle-class."

GWU Battleground Reports

Oh, my!

Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 43%

Obama gained 1% from yesterday while McCain dropped 4%. Overall, this means Obama's lead in this poll has grown from a measly +1% to a more significant +6%. It's nice to see GWU Battleground catch up with all the other pollsters today. ;-)

UPDATE: HUH??!! OK, I just saw the "trendline" page & noticed that they show the numbers as 49-47 for Obama. I'll double-check, but it looks to me that one page has one set of numbers while another page has a different set of numbers. I'm confused.

And finally...

The Investors' Business Daily-TIPP Tracker:

Obama 47%
McCain 41%

I just calculated the eight tracker average (Zogby, Research 2000, Rasmussen, Diageo-Hotline, GWU Battleground, Gallup Daily, IBD-TIPP, and ABC-Washington Post), and indeed Obama's lead has risen to +6.5%. Again, GWU looks like today's outlier as they showed a tightening race. Rasmussen and ABC-WaPo, on the other hand, showed no change. Research 2000, Diageo-Hotline, Zogby, Gallup, and IBD-TIPP, meanwhile, all showed Obama growing his lead.

Overall, it looks like we've had a good day today. ;-)

And now, Gallup...

Gallup Daily is in, and they have some pleasant news to cheer us up.

All Registered Voters:
Obama 52%
McCain 41%

"Traditional" Likely Voter Model:
Obama 51%
McCain 44^

"Expanded" Likely Voter Model:
Obama 52%
McCain 42%

Because we at C4O have concluded that Gallup's "expanded" likely voter model is the most likely of Gallup's voter turnout scenarios, we include that model in our tracking poll average. And so far, the six poll (Zogby, Research 2000, Rasmussen, Diageo-Hotline, GWU Battleground, and Gallup Daily's expanded likely voter model) mean average has Obama gaining a little ground with a +6.17% lead. Other than GWU's obvious Obama +1 outlier, all the others have Obama either holding steady or gaining ground.

And yes, I will update this into an eight poll average later today when IBD-TIPP and ABC-WaPo provide their numbers for today. ;-)

ABC-WaPo Tracking Poll Debuts

I guess we should now get used to one new tracker on the block: ABC Washington-Post. From now on, it looks like they'll be the last tracker of the day & the first newspaper poll that will now be daily.

Let's take a look at their first results for today:

All Registered Voters-
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 42%

Likely Voters-
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 44%

Wow. So much for that "McSurge". And with the Colin Powell endorsement now just starting to be factored in, this may not be the "good week" that McBush wanted.

OK, we have another tracking poll!

I had been hesitant before to include the Investors' Business Daily/TIPP daily poll, as it didn't seem daily at first and their results seemed out of whack with the other pollsters. But now that they're polling daily, I figured it may be worth including IBD/TIPP in our morning poll reports.

Yesterday:
Obama 45%
McCain 42%

Today:
Obama 46%
McCain 41%

Apparently, they show more undecideds than the other trackers. Still, they seem consistent with the other pollsters in showing a slight to moderate Obama advantage. If IBD/TIPP is included in our mean averages, yesterday's average would have been Obama +6.14% and today's average would be Obama +6.29%.

So should we regularly include IBD/TIPP in our daily tracking poll updates?

And finally, Gallup...

A bit of bad news:

Obama 51%
McCain 45%

The numbers tightened in yesterday's polling, even overall as the six tracking poll mean average tightened to an Obama +6.75% lead.

So what's the good news? The debate couldn't have come at a better time! While I guess anything could happen tomorrow, my hunch is that Obama picks up a little support in today's polling... Meaning better numbers tomorrow morning.

Still, this should remind us all that our work is NOT over yet. Keep it up: the calls, the donations, the door knocking. Keep it up until we win! :-)

And Now for Gallup...

Here 'ya go!

Obama 53%
McCain 43%

Essentially, Gallup shows no change from yesterday. And by the way, we at C4O are using Gallup's "Likely Voters 2" model because we believe this is closest to the most likely turnout situation on election day. Oh yes, and today's six tracker (Research 2000, Rasmussen, Zogby, Diageo-Hotline, GWU Battleground, and Gallup Daily) mean average shows Obama with a +8.5% lead today, up a full 1% from yesterday's +7.5% lead.

All in all, we have ourselves another good day for Democrats! :-)