Today's First Trackers

Let's see what they're telling us.

Research 2000:
Obama 50%
McCain 43%

OK, it looks a little scary at first. However, remember that Sunday's Obama +5 number is included in today's average. And with yesterday being Obama +6, it looks like we may start to see a recovery over the week.

Rasmussen:
Obama 51%
McCain 46%

No change from yesterday. Of all the trackers, Rasmussen has been clearest in showing a stable race. We've seen Obama at or above 50% and with a 4-8% lead for about a month now, so this reassures me.

Diageo-Hotline:
Obama 50%
McCain 42%

Nice. The same numbers for three days in a row. Let's hope these numbers hold over the next and final week!

So far, so stable, so good. Let's wait & see how the other trackers report.

The Morning's Trackers

Here we go! Just after the "news" of a "tightening race" in the Zogby poll, some were expecting a new "McSurge". Well, guess what?

Research 2000 Tracking:
Obama 51%
McCain 40%

Rasmussen Tracking:
Obama 52%
McCain 44%

It ain't happening! So far, the state of the race is stable with a comfortable Obama lead. Again, while we should NOT become complacent in these numbers, we also shouldn't start worrying over nothing.

So far, nothing scary... It's OK to breathe. ;-)

And btw, about Florida...

In case you missed it, here's the new Reseach 2000 poll of Florida:

Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 45%

Nice. The Sunshine State seems to be going our way. If we keep up the good work, I know we can win. :-)

The Morning's First Polls

Where should we start? How about Research 2000!

Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 40%

And even better, Open Left has the early numbers for two more trackers!

Rasmussen Tracking:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 45%

Diageo-Hotline Tracking:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 41%

Rasmussen shows a stable race while both Research 2000 & Diageo-Hotline show Obama gaining. Let's see what Gallup shows, but in the mean time it looks like Obama's post-debate jump continues. :-)

atdnext, wowzer!

Research 2000 finds Obama has opened a nice lead in Nevada over the cranky guy with a long history of erratic judgments:

Obama 50
McCain 43

Research 2000 & Rasmussen Today

Oh my! The first trackers are out! Here's the news.

Rasmussen Tracking:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 46%

Research 2000 Daily Tracking:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 43%

Obama was +2 yesterday in Rasmussen, so they show a +1 shift to Obama. Obama was +4 yesterday in Research 2000, so they show a +2 shift to Obama. If this is the aftermath of McCain's "suspension of his campaign", then the silly ploy may have backfired on him. Good. I'm glad the voters are smarter than that. ;-)

Today's First Trackers

Come & get 'em!

Rasmussen Tracking:

Obama 48%
McCain 48%

Research 2000 Daily Tracking:

Obama 49%
McCain 43%

Nothing too exciting. For some reason, Rasmussen seems to always show a near or exact tie. Meanwhile, Research 2000 seems to be stabilizing with a healthy Obama lead. Which one is right? We'll see when the other new numbers come out today. ;-)

Today's Other Trackers

OK, before I forget... Here are today's other tracking polls (courtesy of TPM Election Central)!

Research 2000:
Obama 49%
McCain 43%

Diageo-Hotline:
Obama 47%
McCain 42%

Interesting. Obama moves slightly down in one while rocketing up in another. (Yesterday had Obama +7 in Research 2000 and +1 in Diageo-Hotline.) This may just be meaningless statistical noise, or one may be right and another wrong. But overall, it still looks like Obama has a slight edge today. :-)

Today's First Trackers

Here are the hot new numbers from Rasmussen and Research 2000-Daily Kos!

Rasmussen Tracking:

Obama 48%
McCain 48%

Research 2000 Tracking:

Obama 49%
McCain 42%

OK, it looks like these two polls are really diverging. Rasmussen shows a stable tie while Research 2000 shows a strong Obama lead. So who's right? We can't answer that, but we can shed some light on why the numbers are so different.

Basically, Rasmussen weights its number with Party ID while Research 2000, Diageo-Hotline, and Gallup don't. Diageo-Hotline and Rasmussen have also recently adjusted their samples to include more Republicans, so that can also explain why Rasmussen's numbers lately seem to be favoring McCain.

So what do all these polls mean? Well, they all confirm that the "McSurge" is completely gone while Obama's made his comeback. The renewed focus on the economy has really given Barack Obama his second wind, as he's making a connection with voters while McCain's many gaffes just remind voters that he's the self-proclaimed "non-expert on the economy". As long as the election remains focused less on personality-driven "scandaliciousness" and more on how we'll handle real problems like the economic downturn, Obama has the advantage.

Today's Tracking Polls

So far, no change from yesterday:

Rasmussen Tracking-
McCain 48%
Obama 47%

Research 2000 Tracking-
Obama 48%
McCain 44%

For the most part, yesterday's numbers held up today. However, there were a few changes with Research 2000. Obama's favorables inched up to +18, Biden's favorables hit 50%, McCain's favorables fell to +3, and Palin's favorables are now -1! Basically, McCain & Palin are increasingly looking like polarizing figures. If this holds up, it shouldn't be too hard for Obama to hold onto the Democratic base while appealing to swing voters on his message of real, concrete change on important issues like the economy.

Today's Polls: The Race Is Close

POLL ALERT!! The tracking polls are in, and here's what's happening:

Gallup Daily-
McCain 48%
Obama 45%

Rasmussen Tracking-
McCain 49%
Obama 46%

Diageo/Hotline-
Obama 45%
McCain 44%

Research 2000-
Obama 47%
McCain 46%

Overall, it looks painfully close to a tie right now. While McCain gained 1% in Research 2000 and 3% in Rasmussen, Obama gained 1% in Gallup and 2% in Diageo/Hotline. And in all four cases, the race is just too close to call. Thankfully, we still have seven more weeks to see what happens... And work our asses off to help Obama win! :-)

Research 2000 Sez: McSurge Losing Steam

I know, I know, this poll has been commissioned by Daily Kos. HOWEVER, this poll has NOT been skewed or fudged one way or another. Research 2000 is a respected polling outfit, so these numbers have credibility.

President:

Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 45%

Congress:

Democrats 47%
Republicans 40%

Overall, good news on both fronts. We stand to strengthen our hand some in Congress while Obama has a slight lead in the Presidential Race. But hold on, the news gets better. Because a bunch of bloggers commissioned this poll, we get to see all the internals. This one especially caught my eye.

Sep. 8 Results:
McCain 47%
Obama 46%

Sep. 9 Results:
Obama 47%
McCain 46%

Sep. 10 Results:
Obama 48%
McCain 45%

Clearly, the "McSurge" that developed after the GOP Convention has helped McCain take this race into a virtual tie this week. But as other tracking polls have shown and what Research 2000 demonstrates here, the "McSurge" is slowly but surely deflating over the course of this week.

Why? Where do we start? "Lipstick-gate", new Bush scandals, new Palin scandals... Oh yes, and let's not forget the real issues like the economy & Iraq. As McCain & his GOP have started to lose the media narrative, the focus of the race is returning to the poor state of this union and what we need to do to CHANGE that. When this election is about issues, Democrats win. These results prove that.

So what can we do? Keep hammering away on McCain = Bush. Keep the focus on the issues. When voters vote on what matters, we win. :-)