The four candidate race: Obama in a landslide

From NBC/News Wallstreet Journal. Just released

Barack Obama 48
John McCain 35
Ralph Nader 5
Bob Barr 2

Bob Novak: Hit and Run Driver

FLORIDA??!! Yes. We. Can.

Oh, my! Take a looky at this brand new gem of a poll from Rasmussen on Florida! Guess who's ahead in the Sunshine State now?

The raw numbers are:

Obama 46%
McCain 45%

But when "leaners" are included, the final numbers for Florida are:

Obama 49%
McCain 47%

Will we FINALLY get our revenge from 2000 this year? Can we FINALLY turn Florida blue, once & for all? I think so.

There's been a general trend of late (as in the last couple months) of a tightening race in Florida. Just like the national numbers, McCain just isn't making the cut. He's offering more of the same Bush-Cheney bulls**t when all of us want a new direction.

So can we make this into reality in November? YES. WE. CAN! :-)

Unity Bitchez.

In a sign that senior Democratic party officials remain deeply concerned that post-primary bitterness, two top Democratic officials have emailed a sharply-worded letter to major donors and other leading Dems confessing "fatigue and irritation" at those withholding full support from Obama and demanding that they get behind him "without conditions or demands."

Dear Democratic Friends:
2008 is a Democratic year-at all levels in all the states. The opportunity is ours. We just have to seize it.

We experienced an exciting, intense, sometimes difficult, campaign to nominate our presidential candidate. Now it's over. Barack Obama won.

I supported Hillary Clinton and am proud and pleased that I did. But she lost. Barack Obama won. It's over.

It is time for all Democrats, supporters of Senator Clinton and all other contenders for the nomination, to stand with him to secure his election and the election of Democrats at all levels of competition.

I must confess a bit of fatigue and irritation with people who continue to carp, complain, and criticize the results of the primary and lay down conditions for their support. The Los Angeles Lakers didn't establish conditions to recognize the Boston Celtics as NBA Champions; Roger Federer did not demand concessions before recognizing that Rafael Nadal defeated him at Wimbledon.

It is time to act in a mature and resourceful fashion. It's time to put the primaries behind us. It's time to support Barack Obama without conditions or demands.

It's time to WIN for Barack Obama, the Democratic Party, America, and our future. We have an unparalleled opportunity. I hope we will all do everything we can to seize the moment.

See you at the Inauguration.

Sincerely,

Don Fowler
DNC Member At-Large, South Carolina
Former Chair of the Democratic National Committee

Alice Germond
Secretary, Democratic National Committee

Bullying progressives that are wary and mistrustful of the party and/or its nominee by barking that it's "time to support Barack Obama without conditions or demands" is categorically dumb and goes against what the party is supposed to represent. It comes across as treating the electorate as nothing but votes to exploit, certainly not as people with genuine issues that need urgent addressing, and it echoes the dictatorial tone of the administration currently in office.

Who could have possibly thought this letter was a good idea?

Obama up by one point in Florida & 14 points in New Jersey

A new Rasmussen poll released today suggests that Florida is going to be a squeaker again this year:

Obama 46
McCain 45

Last month, McCain was up by seven points in the Sunshine State, and he has maintained a lead in Rasmussen there for the last six months. So the tightening of the race is good news indeed.

A new poll in New Jersey by Monmouth University/Gannett shows Obama holds tight to his lead there:

Obama 42%
McCain 28%
Undecided 23%

Obama up by seven points in Colorado

A new Rasmussen poll released today shows that Barack Obama is up seven points over Darth McVader in Colorado:

Obama 49
McCain 42

When leaners are included, the gap narrows: Obama leads McVader 50% to 47%. Last month, Rasmussen saw the race as a tossup, but given that two months ago, Obama led by six points, last month perhaps was an outlier.

Virginia is very competitive

New findings from Public Policy Polling shows Obama up by two points in the state. This was the same spread the poll indicated last month. The race today, according to the newly released poll, suggests:

Obama 46
McCain 44

Last month, the poll showed Obama with the advantage in a 47-45 split.

"PPP surveyed 1,327 likely voters from July 17th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.7%." Obama's lead is not statistically significant, but the trend line from last month to this month is encouraging.

Puma Bashing [updated]

[Update--For all those who have asserted this diary is not factual. These are the facts: He didn't have reporters with him, he didn't have a press pool, he didn't do a press conference while he was on the ground in either Afghanistan or Iraq. No one disputes this. This was not only due to the security of the situation. An interview, by the way, is not any of the preceding. And in the place of real media coverage we were shown stage managed questions and the appearance of press conferences. Get it? Stage managed. If you think this is a small matter and that I am nitpicking--we will converse again in a year or so. Obama's treatment of the press has been deplorable. I am not saying the press isn't also deplorable, ok? What I am saying is this isn't any way to improve matters. We are reaching the point of a stage managed, state run media. Obama shows no inclination to reverse this aweful trend. And I will stand up for improving real media access, no matter who the candidate is!!!]

I made a different choice than the Hillary supporters who joined Puma which means Party Unity My Ass. It was a hard choice. And at first I was irritated at those who refused to support the nominee as Hillary had done and asked her supporters to do.

But Enough is Enough!!!

Leave the pumas alone. I do not think they are dishonest, misguided or stupid. I do not think they are ripping Hillary off. And I certainly do not think ridiculing them, bashing them and humiliating them serves any useful purpose.

So get over it!!! Some Hillary supporters will not back the nominee. And they do so for excellent reasons, be it dislike of Barack Obama  and/or outrage over the way Hillary was demeaned in the media and railroaded by the DNC.

I saw a clip today from Andrea Mitchell who was about as outraged as I have ever seen her over the fact no reporter was allowed to ask a question of Barack Obama in either Iraq or Afghanistan.

Everything the American public saw out of those two places about Barack Obama's trip was staged. This is something even  G.W. did not dare attempt in the general election contest. Mitchell said:

He didn't have reporters with him, he didn't have a press pool, he didn't do a press conference while he was on the ground in either Afghanistan or Iraq.

Gives you pause, doesn't it? And if it doesn't, it should.

Barack Obama is exercising  more press "management" than even George Bush.

So I think the PUMAs serve a legitimate purpose. They are saying that the primary contest was rigged which is not the way a democracy is supposed to work. And they are saying that practices like fake news conferences by a presidential candidate are not something they will vote for.

They are not saying this directly, but by their  existence These aren't just sore losers. And they aren't all weird and crazee. Many of them are longtime democrats who believe the Democratic Party needs to change, become more responsive to its members and more fair.

I could never be a PUMA, anymore than Hillary could be. But I respect their intention. It is time to stop smearing them and  accusing them of  being disloyal to Hillary. They are refusing to do as she has asked, but that is their right.

This is the way a democracy works. People get to promulgate their cause and act on their convictions. In this spirit I say  the PUMAS show us that democracy--at least at this level--is alive and still kicking--which is all to the good.

Fox News Rocks!

During a segment this weekend, Fox News’ Brett Baier said that “the high price of gas may be costing your kids some of their education. We’ll explain here.”

Now watch v. carefully.... (if you are drinking or need to use the restroom - please do so before you hit play)

Tuesday Strategy Session: Who Should We Support?

I don't know if you've talked about it with us before, but I'm inviting you all to participate once more in our Weekly Strategy Session focusing on which candidates & campaign organizations we should support. We're inviting suggestions from everyone in our community on who we should add to our new ActBlue page and promote here and at other blogs. So now, I'm giving the floor to you.

Who should we support? Who best embodies Hillary Clinton's progressive values? Who best delivers Barack Obama's message of change? Who will make great members of Congress? And which organizations best serve our cause?

So what do you think? Who should we support? I'm ready to listen to what you all have to say! :-)

And btw, let me leave you with an awesome video from young Dems! :-)

Hillary is BACK...

And she's ready to kick some Rethug ass! Read more here, and take action here. Let's go make Hillary proud! :-)

Check Me out at TM.com

Hey, everyone! I just wanted to let you know that I have a great new gig. Don't worry... I DEFINITELY won't be leaving here. I'll just be cross-posting more at somewhere new.

I'm one of the new guest bloggers at Taylor Marsh! So if you'd like, drop by & visit me some time. You can start out by looking at my latest post there.

Hopefully, I'll now see a few more familiar faces at TM.com! :-)

Some Thoughts about the Race in July

Barack Obama is commanding headlines in papers as he makes his way through the Middle East. These headlines should continue when he goes to Europe to continue his trip. One of the things that has impressed me is how presidential he appears in the photographs of him and leaders on the world stage. The other thing that impresses me is how people like King Abdullah of Jordan "have requested" an opportunity to meet him. The world and the media are treating him like a winner, and this is a very favorable psychological perspective.

Pollster dot com has a new nifty map up on their site that reviews the current positions of the candidates in the Electoral College. The way this site reads it, the race looks like this:

Obama 293
McCain 24
Toss Up 46

Notably, Obama in this assessment is close to a lock on the Electoral College. Pollster thinks that of his 293 prospective electoral votes, 260 are from states where he leads strongly. If that were to hold true for the next few months, Obama would need only to scrape up 10 more electoral votes to reach an electoral majority. On the other hand, Darth McVader has 97 votes from firmly held states and 117 from states that lean his way.

Gallup Daily Tracking has seen an up-tick in the Illinois senator's support. They currently report the popular vote spread this way:

Obama 47%
McCain 41%

These figures included two days of findings from when Obama started his trip. Those gauzy pictures of Obama at 6'2" towering over Hamid Karzai on the cover of USA Today recently might be a nice souvenir after the campaign concludes, huh?

Some Recent News with Numbers

There are some very interesting and encouraging findings released in the last few days. Let's move from today and go backward a few days:

1. Public Policy Polling released new findings today about the race in Ohio. The poll suggests Obama leads McCain in the Buckeye state, 49% to 40%. Last month, they found that Obama led McCain there 50% to 39%. There is no statistical difference between the two polls, so we can rest easy that Ohio is holding steady for Obama right now. It is notable that no Republican presidential nominee ever has won the presidency without winning Ohio.

2. The Virginia Pilot reports a significant up-tick in the number of young people in Virginia who are registering to vote. The report quotes the ubiquitous Larry Sabato, "Obama’s message of change resonates with young voters." I don't think that insight got him either his doctorate or his teaching position at UVA.

3. Democrats have gained 700,000 new voter registrations since the 2004 election while Republicans have lost one million registrants in the same period of time.

4. The Granite State Poll had McCain over Obama in New Hampshire in April by 49% to 43%. A poll they released today shows Obama over McCain 46% to 43%.

5. Kathy Frankovic observes that recent data suggest 50% of Obama supporters are enthusiastic about their candidate while only 16% of McCain supporters felt that way about their guy. She goes on to point out that Bush had the enthusiasm edge in July 2004, that it started earlier, and that it never diminished up to election day. "Strength-of-support numbers pretty much stayed the same for the rest of the campaign."

Looking good!

Lazy Sunday Open Thread

What's going on? I'm interested. Talk to me. :-)