Monday, July 21, 2008

Some Recent News with Numbers

There are some very interesting and encouraging findings released in the last few days. Let's move from today and go backward a few days:

1. Public Policy Polling released new findings today about the race in Ohio. The poll suggests Obama leads McCain in the Buckeye state, 49% to 40%. Last month, they found that Obama led McCain there 50% to 39%. There is no statistical difference between the two polls, so we can rest easy that Ohio is holding steady for Obama right now. It is notable that no Republican presidential nominee ever has won the presidency without winning Ohio.

2. The Virginia Pilot reports a significant up-tick in the number of young people in Virginia who are registering to vote. The report quotes the ubiquitous Larry Sabato, "Obama’s message of change resonates with young voters." I don't think that insight got him either his doctorate or his teaching position at UVA.

3. Democrats have gained 700,000 new voter registrations since the 2004 election while Republicans have lost one million registrants in the same period of time.

4. The Granite State Poll had McCain over Obama in New Hampshire in April by 49% to 43%. A poll they released today shows Obama over McCain 46% to 43%.

5. Kathy Frankovic observes that recent data suggest 50% of Obama supporters are enthusiastic about their candidate while only 16% of McCain supporters felt that way about their guy. She goes on to point out that Bush had the enthusiasm edge in July 2004, that it started earlier, and that it never diminished up to election day. "Strength-of-support numbers pretty much stayed the same for the rest of the campaign."

Looking good!


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