The Remainder of the Debate Schedule

Here is the schedule of the remainder of the debates:

When: Thursday, October 2, 9:00 PM (Eastern Time)
What: Vice Presidential Debate
Where: Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri
Moderator: Gwen Ifill of PBS

When: Tuesday, October 7, 9:00 PM (Eastern Time)
What: Second Presidential Debate
Format: Town Meeting
Where: Belmont University, Nashville, Tennessee
Moderator: Tom Brokaw of NBC News

When: Wednesday, October 15, 9:00 PM (Eastern Time)
What: Third Presidential Debate
Focus: Domestic Affairs
Where: Hofstra University, Hempstead, N.Y.
Moderator: Bob Schieffer of CBS

So we are embarking on a fast paced affair. The next encounter is only five days from how. Then another event occurs only five days after that. Finally, just eight days later, is the final presidential debate. So in less than three weeks, the whole presidential debate cycle will conclude.

Barack Obama on the Debates in Greensboro, NC

Obama spoke to a crowd of 20,000 about John's McCain's debate performance and failure to mention the middle class in last night's debate. Obama points out how out of touch John McCain is with the needs of working Americans:

John McCain had a lot to say about me, but he had nothing to say about you.

Republicans are concerned about Palin

Ed Schultz reports that insiders within the McCain camp consider Palin to be "clueless":

The campaign has held a mock debate and a mock press conference; both are being described as "disastrous." One senior McCain aide was quoted as saying, "What are we going to do?" The McCain people want to move this first debate to some later, undetermined date, possibly never. People on the inside are saying the Alaska Governor is "clueless."

Doubtless, rumors like this must have prompted syndicated conservative columnist Kathleen Parker yesterday to call for Palin to remove herself from the ticket.

Angry John McCain

Second Two Tracking Polls Out

The first two tracking polls of the day pegged Obama at six points over McCain. The second two tracking polls of the day give him a five point lead:

Gallup shows:

Obama 49
McCain 44

Diageo Hotline suggests:

Obama 48
McCain 43

Prior to the debate, then, Obama appears to have led McCain by between five and six points. Taegan Goddard at Political Wire correctly observes:

These trackers do not include the impact of last night's presidential debate but will serve as a useful baseline.

McCain Swore in the Debate

You can hear it at about 4:30 in this video. He says, "Horseshit," twice.

First Two Tracking Polls of the Day

Rasmussen has Obama up still more than he was yesterday:

Obama 50
McCain 44

This matches Obama's post-convention bounce. Rasmussen observes:

The overwhelming majority of interviews for today’s report were completed before last night’s Presidential debate. Tomorrow morning’s update may give a hint of the debate reaction but the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the debate will come on Tuesday.

Research 2000/Daily Kos also shows Obama gaining a point over his standing yesterday:

Obama 49
McCain 43

DemFromCT, commenting on the R2K polling numbers, observed, "Trackers will not reflect yesterday's strong Obama debate performance until tomorrow."

New Obama Ad Uses Debate Footage

Wow, they're fast:

Some of the Early Takes on the Debate

Here are some of the early reviews of the performances of the two candidates last night:

Halperin gives Obama an A- and McCain a B-. He said of Obama, "Polished, confident, focused. Fully prepared, and able to convey a real depth of knowledge on nearly every issue." About McCain, he observed, "Cluttered, jumpy, and often muddled. Keenly aware of the grand, grave occasion, McCain wavered between respectful and domineering, and ended up awkward and edgy."

Chuck Todd observed, "I suspect that only the most partisan McCain supporters wouldn't say Obama looked as presidential as McCain . . . . There are some who believe a "draw" is better for the candidate perceived to be ahead. If that's the case, then the polls will continue their Obama drift. But I wouldn't be surprised if the polls don't move much in either direction because neither candidate gave a reason why voters ought to stop listening and make their decision now."

Marc Ambinder observed, "The press will probably conclude that McCain did not fundamentally change impressions tonight. And that Obama held his own."

Andrew Sullivan said, "My main stylistic impression was that Obama was crisper than usual, sharper, and more aggressive than in his debates with Clinton."

Ben Smith summed it up, "People tuning into the race now now think of McCain as an experienced hand, and Obama as a newcomer. Obama more than held his own, and McCain failed to expose him -- as he tried -- as out of his depth."

CNN Instant Poll

Who did the best job in the debate?

Barack Obama 51
John McCain 38

Who would better handle Iraq?

Barack Obama 52
John McCain 47

Who would better handle the economy?

Barack Obama 58
John McCain 37

Early Poll: Obama Wins

CBS News and Knowledge Networks did an instant poll of 500 uncommitted voters. Obama wins:

Forty percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-two percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-eight percent saw it as a draw.

Forty-six percent of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama got better tonight.

I personally thought that it was a draw, but given that this was McCain's strong point, Obama won. He won because he could stand up against McCain. McCain needed a game changer, and he didn't get it. Obama was confident, knowledgeable, and comfortable with the subject matter.

RNC Plans a Six-Figure Ad Buy in Indiana

Indiana certainly stands among all the states of the Union as one of its staunchest Republican states. It never once has voted for a Democrat since 1964 when the nation repudiated wholesale Barry Goldwater's conservative agenda. Now comes Ben Smith with a report that the Republican National Committee has spent $100,000 on television advertisements in Indiana in an attempt to keep the state's 11 electoral votes red. Comments Smith:

With its own polling presumably confirming public polls showing Obama seriously competitive in Indiana . . . the Republicans are being stretched thinner than they would like. Meanwhile, elements of Obama's attempt to expand the map appear to be succeeding, at least by a preliminary measure: He's making the GOP spend money.

Palin Should Quit, Conservative Columnist Says

Kathleen Parker is a conservative syndicated columnist whose work is syndicated by Washington Post Writers Group. She initially was an avid supporter of Sarah Palin, but she now believes Palin should bow out of the race. Parker calls Palin, "an attractive, earnest, confident candidate. Who Is Clearly Out Of Her League." She indicts Palin for having too much to say but too little content in the words that come out of her mouth. She concludes her column:

McCain can’t repudiate his choice for running mate. He not only risks the wrath of the GOP’s unforgiving base, but he invites others to second-guess his executive decision-making ability . . . . Only Palin can save McCain, her party, and the country she loves. She can bow out for personal reasons, perhaps because she wants to spend more time with her newborn. No one would criticize a mother who puts her family first.

I wonder if Parker is a lonely voice, or if she is going to start an avalanche of voices. I doubt that McCain will rebound either from Palin leaving the ticket or Palin staying on the ticket. Personally, I think the one is probably as disastrous for him as the other.

Missouri seems to be a tie

St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV hired Research 2000 to conduct a poll of the presidential preferences of Missourians. The results show a statistical tie:

McCain 47
Obama 46

The poll has a standard error of +/-3.5. AP observed:

The poll shows the race between McCain and Obama is roughly even in Missouri, a change from just last week when McCain held a 4 percentage point lead.

The poll's internals suggested more respondents trusted Obama than trusted McCain to manage the economy.

CNN Sez: Obama Gains on Electoral Map

CNN now shows its electoral map as:

Obama (D) 240 EVs
McCain (R) 200 EVs
Toss Up 98 EVs

Because of Obama's strong showing in all the new Michigan polls, Michigan has been moved from "Toss Up" to "Leans Democratic", meaning 17 more electoral votes in Obama's column. CNN still lists as "Toss-Up":

New Hampshire (4 EVs)
Virginia (13 EVs)
Florida (27 EVs)
Ohio (20 EVs)
Wisconsin (10 EVs)
Minnesota (10 EVs)
Colorado (9 EVs)
Nevada (5 EVs)

If we add Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire to Obama's column, he has 264 EVs. If he holds all the Kerry states and wins Iowa and New Mexico (these 2 states are likely now to turn blue this year), all Obama needs is either Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and/or Florida... Along with Nevada for some extra padding.

We're so close to victory... Let's make it happen! :-)

Obama with a hefty lead in Michigan?

Detroit Free Press/WDIV-TV hired Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa to conduct a poll in the Wolverine State. The poll suggests Obama has a substantial lead up there:

Obama 51
McCain 38

Selzer, of course, has had a strong Democratic lean this year, but she alone saw the Obama and McCain wins in Iowa last January. Nate at 538.com thinks she's the best pollster in the business. Nate spoke with her and observes about her analytical metholodology:

Selzer thinks that a lot of pollsters may be undercounting the youth vote, and potentially also the black vote.

Gallup Daily Out

The daily tracking poll from yesterday seems to have been just statistical noise. Gallup Daily Tracking is now out and it shows Obama with his earlier lead:

Obama 48
McCain 45

Letterman, Olbermann, and McCain

The Europeans love this:



It's all funny, but the really funny part is at 5:18.

Diageo-Hotline Sez: Obama Opens a Bigger Lead!

Our third daily tracking poll is out! No wonder why McBush is in panic mode.

Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 42%

WOW! So why is this happening? Simple. Obama now has a 48-34 edge on who can best handle the economy. No wonder why McCain is in full panic mode now. Obama is connecting with voters, and he's doing what he needs to do to win. :-)

Rasmussen Has Obama Up by Five in Virginia

Wow. Just Wow.

Obama 50
McCain 45

McTool Wins Debate!

The Washington Post has this screen shot from an ad at The Wall Street Journal:



Gosh. I didn't think McTool was planning to show up at the debate until a few minutes ago. I wonder if McTool's financial meltdown intervention was just a campaign stunt?

The Fix has the story.

BREAKING: McBush WILL Debate, Stunt's Over!

OMG! How many more drama queen diva antics must McBush inject into this race? He says he'll debate now. Now that all of Washington are picking up the pieces from yesterday's McCraziness, McCrazy himself feels it's OK to go to Mississippi tonight to actually do what was planned nearly a year ago.

I can hardly wait to see McBush try to make this sh*t smell like roses... Keyword being TRY. ;-)

McTool's Next Hail Mary Pass

Slate has a list of McTool's next 10 possible crazy stunts. They include:

Returns to Vietnam and jails himself.

Challenges Obama to suspend campaign so they both can go and personally drill for oil offshore.

Does bombing run over Taliban-controlled tribal areas of Pakistan.

Their list concludes with this invitation:

Do you have an idea for McCain's next campaign stunt? Send it to us at NextMcCainStunt@gmail.com, and we will publish the best ideas. E-mails may be quoted by name unless you indicate otherwise.

New State Polls

All right! We have ourselves some new state polls. Take a look below.

Survey USA:

Missouri-
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 46%

Suffolk:

New Hampshire-
Obama (D) 46%
McCain (R) 45%

Rasmussen:

Florida-
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 47%


Research 2000:

Missouri-
McCain (R) 47%
Obama (D) 46%

New Hampshire-
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 44%

Muhlenberg:

Pennsylvania-
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 43%

The bad news: I can't see much here... Maybe that Obama hasn't yet captured the lead in Florida & Missouri?

The good news: Florida & Missouri, two states where McCain has been banking on winning, are now extremely close. If Obama wins either or both, it's game over. Meanwhile, two new New Hampshire polls show Obama with a slight lead. This is major relief, as earlier polls showed a possible hold of the "McSurge" there. And finally, the new Pennsylvania poll out today confirms Obama's rebuilding a lead here.

Conclusion: If Obama holds Pennsylvania and New Hampshire while also winning Florida and/or Missouri, he wins. It's that simple. Let's see if we continue to see a trend here. :-)

McTool is going down

Political Wire has the Diageo/Hotline numbers for today, and it suggests that Obama is now up by seven points, expanding his lead from four yesterday:

Obama 49
McCain 42

No Suspension for McLiar

Oh, jeez! McBush's campaign ads will be pulled today... Only to be put back on the air tomorrow! So really, there's no "suspension" happening here. McBush is just pulling another media stunt to get attention.

Party before country

Ed Rollins believes that the House Republicans are more interested in their party than they are concerned about the country:



Meanwhile, Pelosi says there is no deal if the deal is not bipartisan:



President Bush now has called upon House Republicans to act responsibly in this program.

So, yes, it's a complete and total mess. We have a little John McTool magic here in your nation's capital. Guess what: the old guy with "lots of experience" is erratic and unstable, and the young guy is as cool as a cucumber and completely presidential.

First Two Tracking Polls of the Day

Rasmussen now has Obama much further ahead than it has had Obama since the conclusion of the Democratic Convention:

Obama 50
McCain 45

This finding tends to confirm Research 2000/Daily Kos which also documents a five point spread:

Obama 48
McCain 43

The present debacle in Washington surely will give more McToolophiles greater pause about their preferred choice for president, but who knows, they are the same folks who gave us whack job George W. Bush, so they seem to be capable of just about any manner of bad judgment.

Washington implodes, and it's McTool's fault

Marc Ambinder this morning has posted a piece which suggests that it is McTool's "Put Campaign First" high stakes gamble that directly led to the chaos that now engulfs the capital:

The CW in Washington this morning is that McCain's suggestion for the grand, high-stakes summit meeting was the very thing that caused all of Washington to explode.

Toobin has it right: Suspending the campaign is just talk

The media has bought this blather from McCain that he was suspending his campaign, so McCain could ride into Washington and save the country. My friends, let's make no mistake about it. McCain went to Washington, threw the discussions about the markets into absolute chaos, continued his ads, continued to collect money, made a major speech, and continued to have his whacked vice presidential nominee campaign. The notion that John McCain suspended his campaign is ludicrous.

Obama on the McCraziness

Thank you, Barack Obama.

"John McCain sought to change the subject from his out-of-touch response to the economic crisis with a big announcement that he was 'suspending' his campaign. But the only thing McCain really wants suspended is the American people's disbelief. In fact, he's been in full campaign mode the entire time...

"When McCain finally arrived in Washington, almost twenty-four hours after his announcement -- and after Congressional leadership announced a deal in principle -- he huddled with his lobbyist campaign advisors while his running mate held a political rally and his political spokesmen and surrogates were out in full force, continuing to attack Barack Obama.

"So make no mistake: John McCain did not 'suspend' his campaign. He just turned a national crisis into an occasion to promote his campaign. It's become just another political stunt, aimed more at shoring up the Senator's aimed more at shoring up the Senator's political fortunes than the nation's economy. And it does nothing to help advance this critical legislation to protect the American people during this time of economic crisis."

Suspension of disbelief. That's all it is. So why can't McCain just join David Blaine in some new stupid stunt like jumping off the Sears Tower or hanging by their big toes from a plane flying over The Grand Canyon? McCain's latest stunts look more like cheap "magic acts" than something we'd expect from someone who wants to be President.

Deal? No Deal. McTrashed.

Wow. So McBush parachutes his way into Washington today... To do what? Torpedo a deal on the financial recovery bill? Offer more of the same pure crap deregulation that got us into the mess in the first place?

CBS-NYT Sez: Obama Stilll Up

Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 43%

Here are the new CBS-New York Times numbers. McCain gains slightly among Independents, but Obama gains slightly among Democrats and Republicans. They cancel each other out, so the final numbers are unchanged and Obama remains +5.

McCain holds an edge on most national security issues, but his numbers on Iraq are slipping. Meanwhile, Obama continues to gain on the economy. Overall, Obama is more trusted to make change happen while McCain still looks like a third Bush term.

Overall, the CBS-NYT numbers still look good for Obama.

Sarah Palin Stares Down the Russian Bear

I feel sooooooooooooooooooo much safer:

Couric: You've cited Alaska's proximity to Russia as part of your foreign policy experience. What did you mean by that?

Palin: That Alaska has a very narrow maritime border between a foreign country, Russia, and on our other side, the land . . . boundary that we have with . . . Canada. It . . . it's funny that a comment like that was . . . kind of made to . . . cari . . . I don't know, you know? Reporters . . . .

Couric: Mock?

Palin: Yeah, mocked, I guess that's the word, yeah.

Couric: Explain to me why that enhances your foreign policy credentials.

Palin: Well, it certainly does because our . . . our next door neighbors are foreign countries. They're in the state that I am the executive of. And there in Russia . . . .

Couric: Have you ever been involved with any negotiations, for example, with the Russians?

Palin: We have trade missions back and forth. We . . . we do . . . it's very important when you consider even national security issues with Russia as Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where . . . where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border. It is . . . from Alaska that we send those out to make sure that an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right there. They are right next to . . . to our state.

"McMaverick to the Rescue!!"... OR NOT!

OK, so a tentative deal is being finalized. So why again is McBush there? What is he doing in DC?

Rasmussen's Take on the States of the Race

OK, here are some new Rasmussen state numbers (via TPM).

West Virginia-
McCain (R) 50%
Obama (D) 42%

Pennsylvania-
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 45%

Ohio-
McCain (R) 47%
Obama (D) 46%

Massachusetts-
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 38%

Arkansas-
McCain (R) 51%
Obama (D) 42%

The bad news: They still show a tough race for Obama in West Virginia, contradicting somewhat the other polls showing a close race.

The good news: Obama's still within 10% in West Virginia, as well as Arkansas. These have been considered "Solid Red States" this year, so perhaps McCain's still in danger in these states. Meanwhile, Ohio remains tight and Obama maintains a slim lead in Pennsylvania. Oh yes, and Massachusetts is safer than ever.

Conclusion: While opportunities close up in some areas on the map while opening up in other areas, it looks overall like Obama's in a good position. And as long as he holds Pennsylvania and keeps Ohio as an option, Obama's still on track to win. :-)

What McCain Doesn't Want Us to Remember

I'm really starting to think that one of the reasons why McCain pulled his wild "suspension" stunt yesterday was to make sure the media wouldn't pay more attention to this. Seriously, think about it. If your campaign manager was revealed to be a corporate lobbyist who was STILL being paid for his work for two failed mortgage giants that you're trying to blame your opponent for killing, wouldn't you try something to distract?

No "Suspension" of Palin Campaign

Whoops! I guess Sarah Palin didn't get the memo. While the McCain campaign has supposedly been "suspended", what is Sarah Palin doing? Oh, just CAMPAIGNING!

Cheese louise, the hypocrisy.

Free Liddy Dole

I just love this idea. If only we can just "free" more of these Republicans from the jobs they don't seem to like. ;-)

Marist Sez: Obama Has the Edge

Here's the new Marist national poll:

Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 44%

Independents are breaking for Obama 50-38, Obama holds the edge on "who has the plan for change", and Obama voters are more enthusiastic than McCain voters. That's why Obama has the edge here. Another day, another good poll.

I wonder what McBush will do next to cause a commotion and try to "pull a game-changer"... ;-)

Today's Poll Report

Via TPM Election Central:

Gallup Daily:
Obama (D) 46%
McCain (R) 46%

Diageo-Hotline Tracking:
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 43%

National Journal:

New Hampshire-
Obama (D) 44%
McCain (R) 43%

Pennsylvania-

Obama (D) 43%
McCain (R) 41%

Michigan-
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 39%

Overall, not bad. Gallup shows Obama slipping, but that seems out of tune with the other daily trackers. Meanwhile, New Hampshire & Pennsylvania remain close... But Obama has a slight advantage. Oh yes, and National Journal confirms Obama's rising numbers in Michigan.

Overall, a good day for us. :-)

McHypocrite

OK, so McBush has "suspended his campaign"... To speak at the Clinton Global Initiative meeting in New York to shower flowery praise upon President Clinton? OK, so not only is McBush is hypocrite for not really suspending his campaign. He's now also a hypocrite for smiling at Bill Clinton after stabbing him in the back repeatedly!

Remember when McBush said that Chelsea Clinton was ugly "because Janet Reno is her father"? Remember when he laughed after one of his supporters called Hillary Clinton "the bitch"? Remember WHEN HE VOTED TO IMPEACH PRESIDENT CLINTON IN 1999??!! And now, we're supposed to believe him when he says he likes Bill Clinton?

Gimme a f**king break! I'm not buying this new line of McCrap. It's obvious that McLiar will say or do anything to win. So much for "I'd rather lose an election than lose my honor".

Guess what? I'll work to make sure McBush loses BOTH!

So Why Doesn't McBush Want to Debate?

Congress is already near a deal on the bailout bill. Progress is being made in Washington. So why is McBush still saying he may not debate Obama on Friday? Is he afraid to talk economics? Is he just afraid of "giving straight talk" to us the people?

Jeez, McBush has become a sick joke.

Obama Up in Michigan

The new Detroit News/EPIC-MRA poll is out!

Obama 48%
McCain 38%

The financial crisis is hitting hard here, and more Michigan voters prefer Obama than McCain on the economy. If this holds up, this means another state is off the table for McBush.

Today's States of the Race

Mmmm, mmmm, delicious! We have ourselves some yummy new state polls!

Rasmussen:

North Carolina-
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 47%

Research 2000:

Wisconsin-
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 43%

Survey USA:

Maine-
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 44%

Massachusetts-
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 39%

Delaware-
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 37%

Oregon-
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 41%

Survey USA on the Senate Races:

Maine-
Collins (R) 55%
Allen (D) 39%

Oregon-
Merkley (D) 44%
Smith (R) 42%

The bad news: The race looks pretty close in Maine. While Obama's still ahead there, it's by a narrower margin. That also seems to be hurting Tom Allen in the Senate race.

The good news: Still, Obama's ahead in Maine. And now, Ras shows Obama slightly up in NORTH CAROLINA!! This is the first poll ever that has Obama up here, and better yet it's Rasmussen! Meanwhile, we have yet another poll showing a double-digit Obama lead in Oregon. Oregon's looking solidly blue now, just like Delaware & Massachusetts!

Conclusion:

Overall, the map looks great for Obama. If he keeps the race tied in formerly "solid red states" like North Carolina while running up the margin in formerly "baby blue states" like Oregon, we're in for a good November 4. :-)

Research 2000 & Rasmussen Today

Oh my! The first trackers are out! Here's the news.

Rasmussen Tracking:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 46%

Research 2000 Daily Tracking:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 43%

Obama was +2 yesterday in Rasmussen, so they show a +1 shift to Obama. Obama was +4 yesterday in Research 2000, so they show a +2 shift to Obama. If this is the aftermath of McCain's "suspension of his campaign", then the silly ploy may have backfired on him. Good. I'm glad the voters are smarter than that. ;-)

Another McLie from the McLobbyists

Yes, we have more McLies to discover! The McBush campaign claims that campaign managr Rick Davis quit his lobbying firm in 2006. But apparently, he's still with them. I mean, how else could he have been getting those checks from client Freddie Mac until last month?

Lies, lies, lies... The whole McBush campaign is based on lies.

Late Nite Open Thread

Sit back, relax, & enjoy. ;-)

Bush Has Invited Obama & McCain to the White House

The meeting is supposed to happen tomorrow. Let's hope Obama is prepared. He should take his own water and be prepared to talk Bush down when he whines about not just getting $700 billion to give to his BFFs. ;-)

While McCain Was "Not Campaigning"

He seemed to be doing an awful lot of campaigning. Let's see, he did an interview with CBS News' Katie Couric and a meeting with that "working class hero" Lady Lynn Forrester de Rothschild while he was supposedly "suspending his campaign". Wow, more lies from the McLiar! Is there any reason we can believe him on anything?!

If This Is "Good News" for McCain...

Then he's in trouble. Here are two new polls out tonight:

NBC News-Wall Street Journal:

Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 46%

LA Times-Bloomberg:

Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 45%

The NBC-WSJ poll shows Obama move +1, while this is the first time LA Times-Bloomberg has narrowed down a pool of likely voters (among registered voters, there was virtually no change: 45-43 to 46-44 in Obama's favor). Again, the economy is Issue #1 and more voters trust Obama to handle the financial meltdown.

If the "best news" the GOP can point to are polls only showing a slight Obama lead, then they're in deep sh*t. Good. :-)

Give 'Em Hell, Harry!

Thank you, Harry Reid! Finally, some backbone!

What Really Happened

"I believe we should continue to have the debate," he just said. "I believe it makes sense for us to present ourselves to the American people."

"Obviously if it turns out that we need to be in Washington, we've both got big planes, we've painted our slogan on the side of them," Obama also said. "They can get us from Washington to Mississippi pretty quickly." The debate is set to take place in Mississippi.

Obama also said that he was blindsided by McCain's public call for a debates suspension. After describing their conversation about a possible suspension, Obama said: "I thought that this was something that he was mulling over. Apparently this was something that he was more decisive about in his own mind."
Obama described their conversation as follows: "I proposed putting out the joint statement. He concurred with that. he then also said, 'I would like us to look at suspending the campaign and pushing the debates off.' I said, 'let's put out the joint statement first, and then get our campaigns to discuss this.'" Obama said he later saw McCain announcing his plans on television.

So there you have it. Obama just described what really happened. Obama tried to work with McCain, and McCain then pulled what may end up being THE. LAMEST. POLITICAL. STUNT. EVER! I'm glad Obama's behaving rationally today. Lordy knows we need a President who's actually a grown-up!

CNN Sez: The States of the Race Are Shifting

Here are the new CNN-Opinion Research state polls:

Montana-
McCain 54%
Obama 43%

West Virginia-
McCain 50%
Obama 46%

Colorado-
Obama 51%
McCain 47%

Michigan-
Obama 51%
McCain 46%

Pennsylvania-
Obama 53%
McCain 44%

Wow! No wonder why McCain's afraid to debate. Other than Montana, there simply isn't good news for him. West Virginia is now in play, while Obama is starting to solidify his leads in Colorado, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. With each passing day of Obama delivering a clear message of change and McCain delivering gaffe after scandal after another gaffe, the state of the race isn't looking hot for the GOP. I'm looking forward to seeing Obama cutting through the McCrap and telling some truth on the economic crisis later this week, as the voters clearly are looking for real leadership.

UPDATE: Obama Is NOT Taking the Bait, Wants a Debate

It looks like Obama is NOT taking the bait! The campaign is saying they're still planning to debate on Friday.

Good. We the people need to see for ourselves how these candidates plan to solve this crisis. Obama seems ready to talk to us... So why won't McCain? What's he scared of?

Desperately Flailing McCain

Ben Smith of Politico has a good point. The only thing that's changed in the last 48 hours has been the poll numbers! So why does McCain really want to delay the debate and stop campaigning? What, he can't multitask?!

I hope Obama doesn't take the bait. Go ahead, agree to a joint statement on the bailout bill, meet with Bush, and negotiate in Washington over the final legislative package. Then on Friday evening, how about a debate on the economy? I hope Obama makes this suggestion.

If anything, we need to know MORE about where the candidates stand on the economy... Not less! So why is McCain afraid to debate on the economy? What's he hiding? In these tough times, we need a leader with real solutions... Not a politician with cheap stunts.

BREAKING: McCain Suspends Campaign

Seriously. What is this?! We'll try to keep you updated on this.

Palin Poll Numbers Crumbling

First Read has some news about a poll from NBC that is coming out this evening:

The new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll will be released at 6:30 pm ET, but here's an early look at one set of numbers:

Forty-nine percent say that Palin is unqualified to be president if the need arises, compared with 40 percent who say she's qualified.

By contrast, 64 percent believe Biden is qualified to be president, versus just 21 percent who disagree.

Gondoliers in Venice for Obama

Fox Up, too

In a new poll out today, Fox News confirms the general trend in the polling results we have seen the last few days. Among likely voters, Obama leads McCain by six points:

Obama 45
McCain 39

In a move sure to excite warm feelings among Americans for a McCain presidency, George W. Bush will address the American people tonight at 9:00 EDT about the bailout.

Gallup's In

Here are today's Gallup numbers:

Obama 47%
McCain 44%

They show no change from yesterday, but overall Obama has moved up from a +3.25% average lead (mean of 4 daily trackers) yesterday to a +3.75% lead today. Nice. :-)

Diageo-Hotline Sez: Obama's Moving Up!

Maybe that ABC-WaPo poll isn't so whacked out after all! Diageo-Hotline has released its new tracker today, and Obama is starting to pull away!

Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 42%

For months, we've heard the pundits scream about Obama being somehow "weak" because "he's not running away with this election". But now that Obama's building a lead, what can they say? The more John McCain shovesd his foot in his mouth, the more they tried to make sense out of his faux-populism. The more his campaign was being revealed as a sleazy corporate lobbyist operation, the more they talked about his "Maverick Ways". They talked about his "reform agenda", even though it's no different from Bush's. And now, the media pundits are left speechless.

Fortunately, the American people are smarter than the corporate media. They're finally connecting the dots and realizing that Mr. "I Love Deregulation, The Fundamentals of the Economy Are Strong" simply isn't the change we need. And hopefully as more is revealed about McCain's Bushian economic "plan" and his sleazy campaign, the people will finally send him back to one of his 7-10 houses in one of his 13 cars... And we'll have a President Obama who will actually clean up the Rethuglican mess & make this economy work for working people again! :-)

Delicious. Delightful. Delectable.

Halperin has new numbers from a number of battleground states. You will note one consistent feature among all of these Marist polls: Barack Obama is ahead.

Among likely voters:

Iowa
Obama 51
McCain 41

Sept. 18-21; Error margin 4.5 points

New Hampshire
Obama 51
McCain 45

Sept 17-21; error margin 4 points

Michigan
Obama 52
McCain 43

Sept. 16-17; error margin 4 points

Ohio
Obama 47
McCain 45

Sept. 11-15; error margin 4.5 points

Pennsylvania
Obama 49
McCain 44

Sept. 11-15; error margin 4.5 points

A Couple of Interesting Notes about Sarah Palin

Andrew Sullivan today has published on his blog 12 documented lies of Governor Palin:

- She has lied about the Bridge To Nowhere. She ran for office favoring it, wore a sweatshirt defending it, and only gave it up when the federal congress, Senator McCain in particular, went ballistic. She kept the money anyway and favors funding Don Young's Way, at twice the cost of the original bridge.

- She has lied about her firing of the town librarian and police chief of Wasilla, Alaska.

- She has lied about pressure on Alaska's public safety commissioner to fire her ex-brother-in-law.

- She has lied about her previous statements on climate change.

- She has lied about Alaska's contribution to America's oil and gas production.

- She has lied about when she asked her daughters for their permission for her to run for vice-president.

- She has lied about the actual progress in constructing a natural gas pipeline from Alaska.

- She has lied about Obama's position on habeas corpus.

- She has lied about her alleged tolerance of homosexuality.

- She has lied about the use or non-use of a TelePrompter at the St Paul convention.

- She has lied about her alleged pay-cut as mayor of Wasilla.

- She has lied about what Alaska's state scientists concluded about the health of the polar bear population in Alaska.

He concludes that we cannot trust anything she says. The Palin news of the day does not end there; I am sure the readers of this blog are well aware that the McCain campaign has done somersaults to keep the press away from Sarah Palin. Campbell Brown of CNN has demanded that the McCain campaign end its sexist protectionism of Ms. Palin and allow the media access to Palin just as it has access to Obama, Biden, and McCain:



The transcript of Ms. Campbell's appeal is:

Tonight I call on the McCain campaign to stop treating Sarah Palin like she is a delicate flower that will wilt at any moment. This woman is from Alaska from crying out loud. She is strong. She is tough. She is competent. And you claim she is ready to be one heart beat away form the presidency. If that is the case, then end this chauvinistic treatment of her now. Allow her to show her stuff. Allow her to face down those pesky reporters. Let her have a real news conference with real questions. By treating Sarah Palin different from the other candidates in this race, you are not showing her the respect she deserves. Free Sarah Palin. Free her from the chauvinistic chain you are binding her with. Sexism in this campaign must come to an end. Sarah Palin has just as much a right to be a real candidate in this race as the men do. So let her act like one.

First Two Tracking Polls of the Day

The first two tracking polls of the day are out, and just as The Washington Post confirms, both Rasmussen and Research 2000/Daily Kos suggest Obama continues to be up over McCain:

Rasmussen has Obama up for two, and though it certainly is the most conservative estimate of Obama's lead in the field, it is the widest lead they have recorded since Obama recovered his footing after the Republican National Convention:

Obama 49
McCain 47

Research 2000/Daily Kos suggests that the race remains even with the way it stood yesterday:

Obama 48
McCain 44

A preview of coming attractions, Political Wire is reporting that the Diageo/Hotline poll today will show Obama up by six points, the widest margin yet reported in that poll.

This is how an American president behaves

Obama condemns the, "My Way or the Highway," behavior of Mr. 19 Percent. He calls for a rescue of Wall Street that involves accountability, that asks individuals on Wall Street to sacrifice, and looks not just to the problems of Wall Street but the problems of Main Street. After the disaster of the last eight years, the petulance of King Baby and the self-aggrandizing denizens of his dominion, Barack Obama's behavior and demeanor are sweet music to my ears. This is the way an American president behaves and speaks. Let's make it so.

ABC-WaPo Sez: Obama Jumps Ahead!

Wow! The Washington Post & ABC have some shocking new poll numbers out. Are you sitting down? You should be!

Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 43%

Now how can this be? Simple, really. It's the economy, stupid!

Obama has a 2-1 lead with "economy voters". Overall, most voters see the reality of the faltering economy. And once again, this is what's moving people to Obama's message of change.

Still, that's not the only good news for Democrats. Obama has also gained ground on foreign affairs and the Iraq Occupation. This really calls into question the media's assertion that McCain is "strong on foreign policy". Perhaps the "Pain in Spain for McCain" disaster is now hitting home, and/or voters are waking up to the reality that his stance on Iraq is no different from Bush's.

This may make for an interesting debate on Friday. If Obama proves his foreign policy bona fides while also keeping the economy front and center at the debate, perhaps the convential wisdom on "The Great McDebater" will have to be thrown out the window. ;-)

Late Nite Open Thread

Sit back, relax, enjoy. ;-)

McLiar, MacFreddie

Newsweek has the details.

Since 2006, the federally sponsored mortgage giant Freddie Mac has paid at least $345,000 to the lobbying and consulting firm of John McCain's campaign manager Rick Davis, according to two sources familiar with the arrangement.

Freddie Mac had previously paid an advocacy group run by Davis, called the Homeownership Alliance, $30,000 a month until the end 2005, when that group was dissolved. That relationship was the subject of a New York Times story Monday, which drew angry denunciations from the McCain campaign. McCain and his aides have vehemently objected to suggestions that Davis has ties to Freddie Macan especially sensitive issue given that the Republican presidential candidate has blamed "the lobbyists, politicians and bureaucrats" for the mortgage crisis that recently prompted the Bush administration to take over both Freddie Mac and its companion, Fannie Mae, and put them under federal conservatorship.

But neither the Times storynor the McCain campaignrevealed that Davis's lobbying firm, Davis Manafort, based in Washington, D.C., continued to receive $15,000 a month from Freddie Mac until last monthlong after the Homeownership Alliance had been terminated.

Whoops! And McBush the McLiar still wants to say that "Barack Obama is responsible for the Fannie-Freddie Meltdown" because he once spoke with a Fannie Mae executive three years ago for a whole of TEN MINUTES?! Again, is there any reason to believe McBush on ANYTHING??!!

Remember What This Is All About

Taylor Marsh is right on the money as usual. When the discussion shifts to the economy, Obama wins. When the election is about those kitchen table issues that we're all worrying about, it's easy for us to connect the dots & understand why we need real change.

That's what's scaring the GOP & the McCain campaign now. They can't seem to figure out what to do, so McCain erratically attacks Obama, the media, random government officials, and just about everyone other than himself. He condemns "the excesses of Wall Street" one day, then celebrates "the wonders of deregulation" the next. The GOP can't hide the disaster they don't know what to do, so they're in full panic mode.

Good. This is just where we need them. When the election's about stupid "personality" garbage, they win. But when the election's about the real issues we're facing, Democrats win.

That's why we can't take the bait, not any longer. No more "culture wars" crap. No more "can I have a beer with him?" nonsense. No more "what did he mean by lipstick on a pig?" BS.

We have the Rethuglicans right where we want them. Don't let them escape. Keep talking about the economic downturn, the health care mess, the failed Iraq occupation, the climate & energy crisis... And what Democrats will do to solve the problem. Connect the dots, and make victory happen.

Questions Need to Be Asked...

On this wild Wall Street bailout deal. Will the media ask them?

Making Change Happen in Colorado

Here's what a real Colorado voter has to say about Barack Obama.

Joe Biden in Virginia Today

Speaking the truth like no one else can!



:-)

What's Happening in Pennsylvania

Oooh!



Ah!



Yeah! :-)

On Winning the Midwest: Part 1

(Proudly cross-posted at Swing State Project, Motley Moose, Open Left, and CCN)

Last week, we finished surveying the lay of the land out West. This week, we begin to turn our attention to the Midwest. Yes, that's right. The Midwest looks to be once again a crucial battleground to win both the White House and Congress. And with just six weeks left until election day, we'd like to talk about the state of the races in America's Heartland.

So would you like to join us?

Let's begin with Ohio. Ohio may yet again be THE critical swing state this year, as polls show an extremely tight race here. However, the Presidential race isn't the only exciting contest in The Buckeye State. We also have some great opportunities to win some more Congressional seats as well!



In the Columbus based 15th District, we have a great candidate in Mary Jo Kilroy. She's currently a Franklin County (Columbus) Commissioner who has a terrific record of accomplishments in bringing Republicans and Democrats together to enact real solutions to the county's economic, health care, and environmental problems. But while Kilroy offers a message of real change, her Republican opponent only offers more of the same Bush-Cheney-McCain nonsense. Mary Jo Kilroy nearly ousted the Republican incumbent in 2006 (who's now retiring) and Bush barely squeaked by with 50% of the vote here in 2004, so this district is ripe for the picking in 2008! With the DCCC and EMILY'S List already all in here, our help can really help put Mary Jo Kilroy (and Barack Obama, for that matter!) on top this November.







Another race that the DCCC and other top Democrats are targeting in Ohio is the 16th District. Here, Air Force veteran and current state representative John Boccieri is running to bring some real change for Northeast Ohio. He's fought for our country, and he now wants to fight for Ohioans... For more and better jobs, affordable health care, and real help in these perilous economic times. Meanwhile, Republican Kurt Schuring... Well, he's not quite as fond of his possible future constituents. This race is quite winnable for Democrats, and we have a terrific candidate in John Boccieri. If we support him, he will win.



Another state that's critical for Barack Obama this fall is Michigan. The race here is close, but the renewed focus on the economy does seem to help Obama here. If there's any state that's been severely hit by the economic downturn, it's Michigan. And hopefully with Obama's message resonating here, we can also elect more good Democrats to Congress from here.



One great candidate running is Gary Peters from Michigan's 9th District (Oakland County, Detroit suburbs). Peters is an accomplished state legislator, business owner, and a Navy Veteran who signed up again to serve after 9/11. Unlike the incumbent Republican Joe Knollenberg, Peters wants to get to work to help rebuild Michigan's economy. But in order to make change happen here, we need to help Gary Peters win.





Michigan and Ohio are two critical swing states for Barack Obama to win this fall. If he wins them both, he'll likely win the White House. But in addition to the Presidential race, we have critical Congressional races to win as well in these two states. Please don't forget to help all these wonderful Democrats win by giving what you can here and by volunteering for the campaign if you live in or near any of these districts. With our help, we'll make victory happen on November 4 in the Midwest and all over the country! :-)

Two New Obama Ads

This ad takes McCain on for his relationship to lobbyists:



This ad is playing in Michigan. It takes McCain on for claiming he drives only American cars when, in fact, he owns various foreign vehicles:

Obama has a nice lead in Colorado

Public Policy Polling has released data that shows Barack Obama leads John McCain by seven points in Colorado:

Obama 51
McCain 44

In the prior poll, he led by just one point. The poll shows that Sarah Palin apparently has turned into a drag on McCain's chances. The President of PPP observed:

It seems like the more voters have learned about Sarah Palin the less they’ve liked her, and that’s allowed Obama to open up the largest lead he’s shown in a PPP poll of Colorado.”

I know some Obama supporters have objected to the efforts of other Obama supporters to show what Sarah Palin is like, but the more the people know her, the further McCain sinks in the polls.

Today's States of the Race

Yowzer! We have ourselves some new national & state polls from ARG. Let's take a look at what they say is happening.

National-
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 46%

Arkansas-
McCain (R) 53%
Obama (D) 41%

Massachusetts-
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 39%

Oregon-
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 41%

Pennsylvania-
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 46%

Vermont-
Obama (D) 56%
McCain (R) 38%

Nationally, ARG shows a dramatic shift back to Obama. McCain was actually +3 in their last poll from last week, so the financial crisis is having an impact here as the conversation moves back to the economy and Obama regains his footing. But with the state polls, we don't see too many surprises. Obama's slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, still behind in Arkansas, and building a commanding lead in Oregon while also holding strong leads in Vermont and Massachusetts.

Overall, we're looking good. :-)

The Ground Game in Colorado

Here's a good update from TalkLeft on what's happening in The Centennial State. Basically, the new voter registration figures provide some great news for us. Also, the ballot initiatives up for a vote over there may provide an extra boost to Democrats. :-)

Florida Heats Up!

Hot off the presses! Here's a brand spanking new NBC News poll that you're sure to love!

Florida-

Obama 47%
McCain 45%

No, I'm not kidding! This is the first poll since August that has shown Obama take the lead in The Sunshine State. And again, the renewed focus on the economy is causing Floridians to take another look at Obama.

This is terrific news because this means Obama has more options to reach 270 electoral votes. While it's likely he'll get there by way of the "Big 3" Western Swing States of Nevada (pure toss-up, baby!), New Mexico (now leaning Democratic!), and Colorado (so far, so good) and/or Virginia (looking better and better for us). But if Obama can also compete in Florida, this means he'll have another option to win... And another battleground to force the McBush GOP campaign to fight in. As long as our options remain open through November, we'll be in good shape to win! :-)

Today's First Trackers

Come & get 'em!

Rasmussen Tracking:

Obama 48%
McCain 48%

Research 2000 Daily Tracking:

Obama 49%
McCain 43%

Nothing too exciting. For some reason, Rasmussen seems to always show a near or exact tie. Meanwhile, Research 2000 seems to be stabilizing with a healthy Obama lead. Which one is right? We'll see when the other new numbers come out today. ;-)

New Quinnipiac Battleground Numbers

Quinnipiac/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal has new numbers on four states:

Colorado
Obama 49
McCain 45

Michigan
Obama 48
McCain 44

Minnesota
Obama 47
McCain 45

Wisconsin
Obama 49
McCain 42

Dates conducted: September 14-21; Error margin: Ranges from 2.6-2.7 points.

An Average Prognosticator's View of the Shape of the Electoral College on September 22

I thought it might be interesting to get a sense of the basic current view of Internet prognosticators of the Electoral College outcomes. Three Blue Dudes provides an overview to 84 sites on the web that use various methods to project trends in the Electoral College. Twenty-one of those web sites updated their projections yesterday, September 22. Of those 21 sites, 17 gave Obama the advantage in the Electoral College, two gave the advantage to McCain, and two projected a tie. Neither of the sites that saw an advantage for McCain projected he had enough electoral votes to claim the presidency: just that he had an advantage among the states they felt they could project. The average Electoral College projections for the 21 sites that updated their projections yesterday were these:

Obama 262.5
McCain 234.8

Ten of the 21 sites included estimates of toss-ups in their projections. Those 10 sites had an average 83.7 toss-up electoral votes.

Among the 11 sites that did not include a toss-up category, nine saw an outright Obama victory, and two saw a tie between the Democratic and Republican nominees. Among these 11 sites, the average of the Electoral College estimates were:

Obama 280.5
McCain 257.5

States of the Race: Good, Bad, or Ugly?

Oh my! We have ourselves some new Rasmussen polls, along with a new UNH poll of New Hampshire. Whee, here we go!

University of NH Poll of New Hampshire:

McCain (R) 47%
Obama (D) 45%

Rasmussen:

Florida-
McCain (R) 51%
Obama (D) 46%

Michigan-
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 44%

Ohio-
McCain (R) 50%
Obama (D) 46%

Pennsylvania-
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 45%

Virginia-
McCain (R) 50%
Obama (D) 48%

The bad news: This should be our rude awakening for the "Live Free or Die" State. We'll have to fight hard for New Hampshire, and I hope Obama's ready for that fight.

The good news: Rasmussen confirms that Obama's on the up-swing in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Hopefully, this means our climb there won't be so difficult. Meanwhile, their Florida, Virginia, & Ohio numbers look better than their last polls of these states. Since Ras usually leans more Republican, hopefully this means the other polls showing more of a tied race in these states are correct.

Conclusion: Michigan and Pennsylvania look good, and with hard work & true grit I'm sure we'll win these states. On the other hand, we still have work to do to turn things around in New Hampshire. Overall, it's not bad... And Obama's still in good shape in most of these critical swing states. :-)

Hillary to the Rescue!!

This puts a HUGE smile on my face!

Hillary just held a private conference call with Ohio Governor Ted Strickland and dozens of donors to her campaign and to Ohio Dems, urging them to plow funds into the coffers of the Ohio state party so it can help execute the ground game on Barack Obama's behalf, a Hillary aide confirms to me.

"There isn't any doubt that Ohio once again will be the pivotal state in this election and I know that it's extremely close in the state," Hillary told the donors, according to excerpts of the call sent our way by her office.

Hillary also promised extensive future visits to the state on Obama's behalf. "I will be back campaigning up and down the state to make the case that the failed leadership of the last eight years should not be rewarded with another four," she told the donors.

If the most recent polls released are correct, then Ohio is a genuine toss-up swing state that's within our reach. With Hillary promising more support to the Ohio Democratic campaign, this may be the one lift up that's enough to put Obama over the top. If there's anyone who can vouch for Obama's ability to make real change to help real working people, it's Hillary Clinton. And with her and all of us uniting to help Democrats here, there may be nothing the McBush GOP campaign can do to stop us!

Btw if you want to help Hillary win Ohio for Obama, sign up here & give here! :-)

Virginia? YES. WE. CAN!

ABC-WaPo confirms what we've all been hoping for...

Obama 49%
McCain 46%

Wow! And why is Obama taking the lead in Virginia? Apparently, the economy has become Issue #1 here. And on the economy, most voters here prefer Obama over McCain.

Virginia is now officially a top swing state. Virginia & Colorado may very well end up being the states that decide the next President. Obama seems to have an edge in Colorado, and he's now forging ahead in Virginia. If we can win both states for Obama, we'll likely have a fantastically easy victory on November 4. :-)

CNN Sez: It Really Is the Economy, Stupid!

"The economy has always been considered John McCain’s Achilles heel, and the CNN poll of polls started to show an Obama edge in the middle of last week — just as the financial crisis began to hit home for many Americans,” said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

And oh my, look at the brand new CNN-Opinion Research national poll!

Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

So why has Obama been doing so much better lately? Basically, this election has become all about the economy. With people losing their jobs, their retirement savings, and even their homes, they can't afford to fret over trivial crap like "lipstick" and "bullying". The GOP is trying to make this election all about "personality" nonsense, but that simply doesn't work when people are worried about their own livelihoods.

This is why Democrats can't stop making a personal connection on this election's top issue. We need to keep talking about why the McBush deregulation agenda hurts working class people. We need to explain why a campaign run by corporate lobbyists can't be trusted to protect workers and middle-class investors once elected. We need to keep making the case that only a Democratic President and Democratic Congress can fix this economic mess and make our economy work for working people again.

Obama's been doing a great job at this. He just needs to stay on message, and we can't let GOP ploys distract us. Make this election a referendum on the failure of Bush-Cheney-McCain to protect the middle class, and see Democrats win.

More States of the Race: We Can Win The Wild West

Yum! TPM has just fed us two new polls from the West:

Suffolk University- Nevada:
Obama 46%
McCain 46%

Public Policy Polling- New Mexico:
Obama 53%
McCain 42%

Wow! Combine a renewed focus on the economy with increasing strength among Latinos, and we have a more favorable map for Obama here. The more polling I see out of New Mexico, the more easily I breathe. While I don't think we should rest on our laurels quite yet, I do think Democrats are in for a good year in The Land of Enchantment. Hopefully the Obama campaign will keep up the good work here, so that we'll see a strong enough Obama win to help Democrats down ballot like Tom Udall and Martin Heinrich have an easier time winning.

And what can I say about Nevada? The race here is HOT, HOT, HOT! Because The Silver State's been hit hardest by the mortgage meltdown, people here seem quite open to Obama's message of real change to help real working people. Now if Obama just wins over a few more Indpendents while turning out the Democratic base en masse (which would help, since Dems now outnumber Reeps in the state), we can also win here.

So what can we conclude? Basically, the West will still be a key for us to win. While traditional battleground states like Ohio and Florida are still quite important this year, the "Big 3" Western Swing States of Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada provide Democrats for more options to win the White House as well as more seats for Congress. New Mexico now shows a good Democratic lean, so we now must focus on winning Colorado and Nevada to seal the deal and make Barack Obama our next President!

Btw, now's a great time to make victory happen! :-)

Bush's Approval Rating at an Unprecedented Low

George Bush has fallen from a 30 percent approval rating last month to a 19 percent approval rating in poll ARG released today. There is no precedent in American history for so low a rate of approval for an American president. Even so, I think 19 percent really is way too high and speaks poorly of the judgment of a large number of Americans.

The States of the Race: Map Changing?

Yay! Here's a flood of new state polls courtesy TPM Election Central:

SurveyUSA:

Virginia-
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 45%

ARG:

Georgia-
McCain (R) 57%
Obama (D) 39%

New Jersey-
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 42%

South Dakota-
McCain (R) 55%
Obama (D) 39%

Wisconsin-
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 45%

Rasmussen:

Minnesota-
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 44%

North Carolina-
McCain (R) 50%
Obama (D) 47%

Mason-Dixon:

Pennsylvania-
Obama (D) 46%
McCain (R) 44%

The bad news: South Dakota & Georgia look pretty solid for McCain, and Pennsylvania still looks too close for comfort.

The good news: Obama still holds a lead in Pennsylvania, and he seems to be strengthening in Virginia, Minnesota, and New Jersey. In fact, I'd dare to say that New Jersey is pretty darn safe for us now. Meanwhile North Carolina is officially in play, which means Obama has more options to reach 270 EVs.

Conclusion: Even though we've lost a few opportunities in places like Georgia and the Dakotas, that's not too surprising as these are "Solid Red States" that may take a while to purple. But with Obama ahead in Virginia and close in North Carolina, we still have plenty of opportunities to turn the map more than blue enough for Democrats to win! :-)

Today's Other Trackers

OK, before I forget... Here are today's other tracking polls (courtesy of TPM Election Central)!

Research 2000:
Obama 49%
McCain 43%

Diageo-Hotline:
Obama 47%
McCain 42%

Interesting. Obama moves slightly down in one while rocketing up in another. (Yesterday had Obama +7 in Research 2000 and +1 in Diageo-Hotline.) This may just be meaningless statistical noise, or one may be right and another wrong. But overall, it still looks like Obama has a slight edge today. :-)

Virginia

Virginia data for the general election has glided around a certain close range in recent days with some polls suggesting a slight Democratic edge and some polls suggesting a slight Republican edge. In the last week, four polls have shown that McCain leads, two have show that Obama leads, and one has shown a straight up tie. One poll that showed an edge for Obama, Survey USA, about a week ago reported findings that warmed all of our hearts:

Obama 50
McCain 46

Today comes new data for Virginia from the same polling company, Survey USA, that tends to confirm its earlier finding:

Obama 51
McCain 45

Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Today's Polls: Stable

After all the millions McBush spent to trash Obama... After all the time spent at the GOP Convention to attack Obama... After all the effort spent in the last week to blame the entire financial meltdown on Obama... What are the results?

Rasmussen Tracking:

Obama 48%
McCain 47%

Gallup Daily:

Obama 48%
McCain 44%

Essentially no change from yesterday, and no change from the summer. The numbers seem to be stabilizing with a slight Obama lead. Does that mean we're a shoo-in to win? No, but it does mean we don't need to be demoralized over some silly "McSurge" that seems to be all gone now.

So what does this mean about the state of the race from now until November? The debates have potential to be game-changers, but unless someone truly stumbles we may just see Obama hold onto a small lead overall for the next few weeks through November 4. As long as the economy is the #1 issue, Democrats have the edge. And if we work our hardest to get out the vote, we have a good chance to win on November 4.

We'll have to wait and see if the first debate causes another shift, but for now it looks like the political battlefield has stabilized and we now need to take advantage of the current opportunities to make our case to America and win this election.

McBush = Hypocrisy

Remember how John McCain was saying that Barack Obama was somehow responsible for the financial crisis because he once met with someone from Fannie Mae for less than ten minutes several years ago? Even though this allegation makes absolutely no sense, there may be a method to McCain's madness. After all, the McCain campaign manager used to lobby for Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac!

My goodness, here they go again with another KKKarl Rove campaign tactic! Hopefully, American voters are smarter than that now.

ABC Panel Pans McCain's Performance

The political panel on ABC's "This Week" eviscerated the quirkiness of John McCain's performance over the last week.  It wasn't just Donna Brazile who called into question how McCain ricocheted from one position to the next since last Monday; even George Will called McCain's performance over the last seven days, "frightening."  The panel, which consisted of George Stephanopoulos, George Will, Donna Brazile, Cokie Roberts, and Sam Donaldson raised the specter of McCain's age as a disqualifying attribute of the Republican nominee for election as president.  It really is worth watching, because it's music to an Obama supporter's ears. George Will called Obama's handling of the crisis, "presidential."

Stars Against Palin

(cross-posted at Motley Moose and MyDD)

You almost have to laugh watching this much outrage coming out of Hollywood. I've never been one to pay much attention to the sleazy tabloids or the innumerable useless factoids about celebrities, but I have to admit, I'm enjoying the smackdown they're giving Sarah Palin. Since the primaries ended, Hollywood has remained relatively quiet about the presidential race -- until, of course, John McCain decided to put Palin in the spotlight. She is anathema to everything our liberal stars hold dear: her political ideology is positively prehistoric, the sort of positions born of nightmares. So naturally, our stars are reacting accordingly.

Here we have Gina Gershon toting a gun and wearing some kind of bathing suit. Clearly a devastating blow to the McCain campaign.

See more Gina Gershon videos at Funny or Die

Look! Even Ben Stein hates her! She scares him. And apparently feels like he's in a mental hospital. (I know that feeling.)





And who could forget the spectacular reaming provided by Matt Damon?



The best line being:

"I need to know if she really believes dinosaurs were here 4000 years ago. I want to know, I really do. Because she's gonna have the nuclear codes."

Always liked the guy, but he won major points from me during this interview. (Should I give him favorite actor status?) He makes a good point, though. Palin's line of thinking isn't just archaic -- it borders on delusional. When I think of this woman potentially obtaining the power to set off a string of missiles, a shiver runs down my spine -- and not the good kind.

Even Pink is weighing in! It's not as if anyone cares what she has to say, of course, but frankly I'm just stymied that I'm finally nodding my head approvingly at something that came out of her mouth:

“If I were writing a letter to Sarah Palin, it would be a lot of whys and hows. Who are you? Do you know? Why do you hate animals? Please point out Iraq on a map...This woman hates women. She is not a feminist. She is not the woman that’s going to come behind Hillary Clinton and do anything that Hillary Clinton would’ve been capable of . . . The woman terrifies me.”

As she should, Pink. As she should. And yes, my dear, she does hate animals. Blasting animals with a high-powered weapon from a helicopter isn't half as awesome as the NRA, the NHA, and Sarah "lipsticked pitbull" Palin make it out to be. But you'd never know it from the following photograph, would you? Looks like a party!



Oh my. That looks painful. Well, at least the baby seems to be enjoying it.

And you have my word, that pic is legit. I know because I found it on the Internets. Unedited. I'm sure PhotoShop didn't come within 5,000 pixels of it.

So the celebrities are yammering as loudly as possible about what an... unfortunate sort of human being (I'm using the term loosely, give me a break) Sarah Palin is. Now the question is, should we be concerned about this? The MSM thinks we should. As it has so worriedly pointed out, the louder the celebrities are, the more it looks like Senator Obama is in cahoots with the all-terrifying "liberal elite". Maybe we should be worried about public perception? Should we be scared of another "Obama is a celebrity" ad forthcoming from the McSame/Failin campaign? Well, I'm thinking No. The likelihood that a bunch of raucous Hollywood types are going to affect the outcome of the race seems slim. The average person doesn't care about endorsements, particularly celebrity endorsements (except for Oprah's, of course), and I seriously doubt anyone is particularly fussed over what Meg Ryan and Ben Affleck have to say. Still, it's funny to watch. I almost feel bad for McCain and Palin having this much outrage and hilarity thrown in their direction.

But hey, at least McCain still has Sylvester Stallone, Jon Voight, and Chuck Norris on his side. That's a formidable line-up right there. They could totally kick Pink's ass. Then again, McCain probably could too.

Obama Interview on "60 Minutes"

What Obama plans to do from Day 1:

1. Call in the Joint Chiefs to figure out how to get safely out of Iraq.

2. Stabilize the financial markets.

3. Develop a sensible energy plan.

4. Get moving on a health care plan.

Obama takes the race issue on in the second video. He acknowledges that some people won't vote for him because he's black, and he also points out that some people will vote for him specifically because of the fact. I thought he was quite disarming when he discussed it.

Sunday Late Nite Open Thread

What's happening? ;-)

Vote for Change

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Keith Olbermann Ponies Up for Sarah "Lying Sack of Shit" Palin's Litany of Prevarications

We all now recognize that the one thing that Sarah Palin does liberally is to lie. Keith Olbermann promised to pony up $100 from his own checking account every time Sarah "Lying Sack of Shit" Palin told another tall one. Now, as some background, despite being a family values kind of gal, Governor Sarah LSS Palin cut the budget of the Alaskan Special Olympics. Keith decided he would try to redress some of the injury that the Special Olympics in Alaska sustained in the budget cut, so in this clip, true to his word, he writes a check to draw his viewers' attention to 37 documented Palin prevarications:

Obama and McCain on "60 Minutes" Tonight

Watch CBS Videos Online

Obama and McCain both appear this evening in separate interviews on CBS's "60 Minutes."

The Supremes

This is probably one of the most important issues of this election. The next President will likely be able to affect our nation's future long after he loves office. How, you might ask?

Easy. It's called THE SUPREME COURT! In the last eight years, the court has decided on everything from women's reproductive rights to climate change to workplace discrimination to human rights to election results. And since the next President may very well appoint 2 or 3 or 4 or even 5 new Supreme Court Justices, it's crucial that we know what kind of judges the next President will appoint.

John McCain says he wants to appoint more "strict constructionist" judges like Clarence Thomas and Antonin Scalia, which would mean a hard-right shift in the court that could take away a woman's right to choose, dismantle labor and environmental and anti-discrimination laws, roll back the Bill of Rights, and allow a more "Imperial Presidency" that centralizes power in the Executive Branch. Barack Obama, on the other hand, would like to appoint judges that respect our Constitutional rights as well as balance of power and federal and state regulatory rights. The difference between Obama and McCain couldn't possibly be clearer here.

So what do we want? More erosion of the Bill of Rights? Another President who thinks he's above the Constitution? Another President that appoints judges who put extremist ideology over the principle of equal justice under the law? Or do we want real change?

Don't be fooled by McCain's "maverick" talk. His judicial philosophy is no different from Bush's. That's why Barack Obama is our only choice for real justice and real respect of our Constitution.

Drill, Baby, Drill

Brave New Films' most recent addition to the dialogue about John McCain's ill-advised and dangerous policy proposals is this video:



Now, let's be frank: The Republicans yelling, "Drill, baby, drill," on the eve of the the move away from traditional energy sources to the revolution of alternative forms of energy is a little bit like someone screaming, "I'll be damned if you'll take away my carbon paper," on the eve of the revolution of duplicating processes. It's like yelling, "You will pry this mimeograph machine from my cold, dead hands," as the moving company rolls the Xerox photocopier into the office.

There is simply no other conclusion you can make: We Democrats are the party of the future; the Republicans apparently think the internal combustion engine is a cutting edge technology.

Saturday Night Live Roasts McCain's Lying Advertisements