Viva Las Vegas Open Thread Spectacular!

Hey, everyone! How's your Saturday been? I've had quite a blast in my favorite Sin City today! First, I saw our next President rock the casbah in Henderson. Then, I worked the streets for Dina Titus & Barack Obama. So far, I've noticed that A WHOLE LOT OF DEMOCRATS HAVE VOTED EARLY. As long as we continue the momentum into election day, I'm thinking Nevada may be a blowout for us Democrats. We probably only need to break even on election day to win. But as you all know already, I want us to win BIG... So I'm willing to put the extra effort in to make sure Barack & Dina win BIG!

And now, I'm drunk & happy as I gamble my way up The Strip. You won't believe how many people I've seen everywhere from Mandalay Bay to Ceasars Palace wearing Obama t-shirts! YAY!

So what have you been up to? What good news do you want to share with me. Talk to me, baby! I promise I'll have fabulous photos from today up on the blog tomorrow morning! :-D

Dick Cheney endorses John McCain

Sorry, I've been away from my computer

atdnext is in Nevada trying to turn the Silver State blue (and I am pretty sure he's going to do a damn good job at it, too.) I was out of the house all afternoon, so I haven't been updating the site today. Anyway, I'm sure you're all more up-to-date than I am. The Washington Post/ABC poll suggests that Obama continues to enjoy a commanding lead over John McCain, 53-44. The Post observes this evening:

For the first time, the slice of likely voters who report they will "definitely" vote for Obama has (by just a hair) now reached 50 percent, a milestone which George W. Bush never reached in Post-ABC tracking polls in 2004 or 2000.

McCain is making some big ad buys in Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina, but I have become convinced today that the only way McCain can win on Tuesday is for him to steal the election. Aside from the polls, McCain appears to have no ground game:



Obama's going to win on Tuesday. He has the poll numbers, and he has the organization.

Gallup Daily

The Gallup Daily Tracker is out, and these are the results:

Registered Voters
Obama 52
McCain 41

The numbers were 50-41 yesterday. This figure is now Obama +11, the same as yesterday.

Likely Expanded Voter Model
Obama 52
McCain 42

The numbers yesterday were 52-43. McCain declines a point, so the expanded model is Obama +10.

Traditional Model
Obama 52
McCain 42

Yesterday's numbers were 51-43, so Obama rises a point while McCain loses one. The traditional model is Obama +10.

Note that the traditional and expanded models have the same numbers and, hence, the same point spread.

Hyperventilation about Pennsylvania

Rasmussen has a new poll out this morning on Pennsylvania that shows the state growing tighter:

Obama 51
McCain 47

A few points:

1. Today's Pennsylvania Trackers sees the race this way:

Obama 52
McCain 44

2. Pennsylvania polls in 2004 showed Kerry taking Pennsylvania by 0.9 in the Real Clear Politics final average. He actually won the state by three. The RCP average right now is Obama +8.5. The Pollster.com trend analysis is Obama 51.7, McCain 42.9. Last night on CNN, a reporter following the McCain campaign observed that McCain's internal polling showed him down by five points in the Keystone State.

3. Nate puts this all in perspective:

Suppose that Barack Obama were to concede Pennsylvania's electoral votes. Literally, concede them. Throw 'em back, like a Chase Utley home run at a Cubs' game. How often would he still win the election? ...89.0% of the time, according to our most recent run of simulations, along with another 2.4% of outcomes that ended in ties.

New Hotline Diageo is, well, hot

Hotline Diageo is out this morning, and it shows Obama at over 50 percent. Blares the headline, "With 72 Hours Left Until Election Day, Obama Leads McCain by Seven Points." Here are the results:

Obama 51
McCain 44
Undecided 5

In other words, according to Hotline, McCain could win every single undecided voter and still lose. Yesterday, the results were 48-41, so both candidates firmed up their numbers by three points each.

First trackers of the day

Rasmussen is out this morning with the suggestion that Obama's lead today is holding firm:

Obama 51
McCain 46

That lead yesterday was one point more narrow, 51-47. I think that rounding is causing this fluctuation between 46 and 47 in McCain's number, which means it's nothing but statistical noise, not real movement. So what is Rasmussen's take away observation?

Nearly a third of voters say they have already cast their ballot and Obama leads by nine among this group. Obama also has a similar lead among the small group who have not voted but still plan to vote early. The candidates are essentially even among those who plan to vote on Tuesday.

The fruitcakes on the right like to tout the number of persuadables left on the ground at this late date, but Rasmussen finds that only 43 percent of McCain's voters are rock rib, while 47 percent of Obama supporters say there is no way they're going to tilt the other way.

Research 2000/Daily Kos also sees Obama extending his lead as we enter the last few days of the campaign:

Obama 51
McCain 44

Daily Kos poll blogger extraordinaire DemFromCT observes:

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +5 Wed, +8 Thurs, and +9 Fri with a +5 Tues sample rolling off (rounding can take place.) The Obama video (33.6 million viewers) is reflected today, but not completely until Sunday. The last R2K poll of the election will be published Monday.

The one day numbers were 52-43 with a five point margin of error. Keep this in mind as we move on to Zogby of the Big Headlines.

Poor Zogby is the crack addict of pollsters. He has a few days of serious analysis, and then he's back hitting the pipe like an addict in relapse. Zogby rolling total released today is:

Obama 49
McCain 44

Yesterday, the numbers were 50-43. In an analysis that made every Whack Job Heart on the Right skip a beat, Zogby observed:

Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%.

Let's be clear about this: R2K numbers for yesterday were 52-43, and Zogby's were McCain 48, Obama 47. Let's be still clearer about this: Since Zogby started pulling, he never once has had McCain above 45 percent in his rolling total, and as of today, it's been four days since McCain got to 45. On the other hand, Zogby has never had Obama below 47, and 47 occurred just one time in the entire time this poll has been in the field, more than three weeks ago.

Today's First Trackers

Please excuse the messiness of this post, as I'm doing this while I'm packed in a crowd on the football field at Coronado High School in Henderson, Nevada, for the BIG Obama rally. Go ahead and check tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com for the linkys, but I'll give you the poll numbers for today.

Zogby
Obama 49
McCain 44
+2 for McCain

Research 2000
Obama 51
McCain 44
Obama +1 from yesterday

Rasmussen
Obama 51
McCain 46
Obama +1 from yesterday

Seriously, Zogby is f**ked up. So far, the other polls are showing a stable race or a slight upward trend for Obama. All the huffing & puffing from Drudge on Zogby showing a tightened race is simply crap. Again, this is no reason for us to be complacent. You don't have to come all the way to Nevada like I have, but you can go to my.barackobama.com to see how you can help! Let's win this election and win it BIG! :-D

Where are the candidates today, and what does it mean?

You can tell a lot about candidates' internal polling, which at this point surely involves knowledge of early polling results, by where their campaigns are sending them during the last days of the campaign. So without further ado, here are the candidates' schedules:

McCain plans to rally in Newport News and Springfield, Virginia and later in Perkasie, Pennsylvania:

1. Virginia has not gone for a Democrat since 1964, and McCain, confident he didn't need to worry a red, red state, didn't put together any kind of ground game until late. Obama has dominated the airwaves with expensive ad buys in northern Virginia and he and Biden have not ignored the parts of the state where they have little chance to win, thus trying to suppress McCain's voter margins there. About one in five residents of the Old Dominion is African American. Obama concludes his campaign on Monday night with a rally in northern Virginia. Pollster.com's trend analysis currently sees the state at Obama 51, McCain 44.

2. Pennsylvania has been reliably Democratic since 1992 in presidential politics. It threw Santorum out of the Senate in 2006. I heard on CNN last night the much touted internals from John McCain's camp show that McCain is losing the state by five points. Keep in mind that Kerry won Pennsylvania in 2004 by three points even though the polls showed him up in the state by just one point on the eve of the election. Pollster.com's trend analysis sees the state as Obama 52, McCain 43. Neither Obama nor Biden is currently scheduled to go back to Pennsylvania.

Obama will hold events in Henderson, Nevada; Pueblo, Colorado; and Springfield, Missouri.

1. Early vote totals from Nevada's two most populous counties have shown Democrats are going to the polls in droves. Early voting ended yesterday, and when it ended the state had produced about 60% of its total votes from 2004. Exit polling yesterday of Nevada's early voters suggest Obama enjoys a lead of 52.5 to McCain's 44.5. Plouffe said yesterday that the voters whom they have gotten to the polls in Nevada have been first timers and sporadic voters; the percentage he cited for this demographic was 43%. Henderson, a suburb of Las Vegas, is in Clark County, the most Democratic part of the state. CNN moved this state into Obama's column this week and commented that in making this change, they had interviewed Republicans who believed the state to be out of reach. Nevada provides something of a firewall for Obama, because he could lose Pennsylvania, and if he won the Kerry states, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada, he has 270 electoral votes. Pollster.com's trend analysis currently sees the state at Obama 50.3, McCain 44.4. If those numbers held, it would mean that Tuesday voting in the state will drive down Obama's lead in early voting, but that early voting provided Obama a comfortable edge.

2. Obama is headed to Colorado today. The place where he is going, Pueblo, is a Democratic bastion with a university. Marist Poll on Thursday said that there had been a slight tightening in the state, but saw the race as 52-43 with an Obama edge in early voting of 51-45.

3. Pollster.com's trend analysis shows Obama with a marginal advantage in Missouri, 48.6 to 46.7. The Real Clear Politics average has the state it at McCain, +0.4. CNN's poll of polls sees Missouri at 47-47. This is a true tossup. Obama is stopping today in Springfield, Missouri, a sign of Obama's fundamental strength in the electoral map. Why? The New York Times yesterday observed, "Mr. Obama is not only returning to Missouri, he is headed to one of the state’s most conservative bastions. Of all the cities that he will pass through in the closing stages of the race, Springfield, Mo., is one of the most reliably Republican."

The vice presidential candidates are on the road, too. Palin will tour Florida for the greater part of the day and stops in North Carolina and Virginia while Biden heads to Indiana and Ohio.

So that happening in Florida? A Miami Herald story has the following tidbits:

1. Plouffe observes that in 2004, Republicans won the early vote and absentee vote, but Democrats have turned out 200,000 more voters this year than Republicans did this year. Plouffe acknowledges Florida is going to be a battle over the last days of the campaign. To date, 44% of the total voters who went to the polls in 2004 have gone to the polls in early voting in 2008: In 2004, Republicans dominated early voting 43.5 to 40.7. This year, Democrats thus far have dominated early voting 45.6 to 38.2.

2. Al Gore and Hillary Clinton are campaigning this weekend for Obama-Biden in the Sunshine State.

3. A new poll with a sample of more than 8,000 Floridian Latinos suggest that McCain is not doing as well against Obama among Hispanic voters as Bush did in 2004.

4. McCain returns to Florida on Sunday. Obama is in Jacksonville on Monday.

Both vice presidential candidates are stopping in Indiana today, so what is that about?

1. Indiana historically is among the most Republican states in the Union. Utah probably has the edge because of a greater Republican dominance in local elections, but Democrats win in Indiana only by playing the role of blue dogs. Indiana has not gone for a Democrat since LBJ's landslide in 1964.

2. The Indianapolis Star reports that 10 percent of registered voters have cast ballots in Indiana, and early voting continues today. Like elsewhere in the country, people are waiting in line for hours to exercise their franchise. Marion County election official expect that 100,000 voters will have voted in Marion County by the end of early voting on Monday. Marion County is the location of Indianapolis, which Obama must carry disproportionately to have a chance at Indiana's electoral votes.

3. Pollster.com's trend analysis gives the edge to McCain by less than one point, 47.2 to 46.6.

What about North Carolina?

1. Pollster.com's trend analysis shows Obama with the edge in North Carolina, a state that has not gone for a Democrat in presidential politics since Jimmy Carter won it in 1976. The numbers at Pollster.com are Obama, 48.5 to McCain, 46.7. Real Clear Politics sees a 2.5% Obama advantage. CNN's poll of polls shows Obama by four.

2. Early voting in North Carolina has brought 66.2% of North Carolina's total votes to the polls in early voting. In early voting in 2004, 48.6% of voters were Democrats, and 37.4% of them were Republicans. In early voting in 2008, 51.8% of early voters have been Democrats, and 30% have been Republicans. Black voters represent 26.3% of early voters. I remember hearing on CNN last week that the Obama campaign anticipated it needed black voters to represent 23 to 24 percent of total voters in North Carolina to carry the state.

3. AP reports that North Carolina has extended early voting by four hours today and that polls suggest Obama enjoys a 59-33 advantage in those early votes.

What about Ohio?

1. Pollster.com's trend analysis sees a 49.6 to 43.3 advantage for Obama-Biden (Obama +6.3). CNN's poll of polls sees a five point for Obama. Real Clear Politics calls it for Obama at +5.4.

2. McCain ended a two-day bus tour yesterday in Ohio.

3. Democrats are working Ohio very hard this weekend. Biden was there yesterday with a campaign stop in a Dayton suburb. He is in Marion, Ohio at 2:00 this afternoon with a bus tour that ends in Bowling Green, Ohio later today.

4. Obama has a campaign appearance in Columbus on Sunday. Hillary is working the Appalachian portion of the state with a visit to Ironton in Lawrence County; she also is appearing in Lake County. NPR observed about Lake County: "The pressure is on for Lake County, Ohio. The region, which consists of Cleveland as well as a large rural area, has been a bellwether in past presidential elections."

In summary, though the Wing Nuts are ecstatic about a one day, 400-person sample in a Zogby poll that shows McCain up one point, 48-47, McCain and Palin today are campaigning exclusively in states where all the data suggest they are behind, while Obama and Biden are campaigning in places where the data show that they are ahead or even. McCain and Palin are trying to make inroads in traditionally red states. Unfortunately for them, so are Obama and Biden.

What else is there to say about the real numbers in this campaign?

The real Mavericks

After one unquestionably stolen election,

and after a second one that left a lot of us not secure that the people's will was accomplished, we never seem to get enough assurance. It's like a scratch that won't stop itching. I confess that my rational mind tells me the chances of a McCain victory are remote, but my emotional mind is on edge. Anyway, Political Wire has an interesting post tonight. It seems that a mathematics and computer professor at Franklin & Marshall College used poll numbers from late October to run 50 million scenarios on the electoral college, and Obama won 99.98% of the time.

For his part, Nate at 538 says:

McCain’s win percentage is down to 2.8 percent, his lowest number of the year.

Voting in Georgia

You want to see something breathtaking? Look at this.

Currently, 1,767,139 Georgian have voted early. Today is the last day to cast a ballot. More than four times the number of people who voted in both early voting and on election day have voted already in Georgia.

Obama's top five priorities as president

Wolf Blitzer interviewed Barack Obama today, and Obama listed his top five priorities as president:

1. Fixing the financial system.

2. Energy independence.

3. Healthcare reform.

4. Tax cuts for the middle class as part of a broader program of tax reform.

5. Reforming the education system.

Another prominent Republican endorses Obama

Ken Duberstein was chief of staff under Ronald Reagan and plans to vote Barack Obama. He cites Colin Powell's endorsement as highly influential of his decision:

Well let's put it this way - I think Colin Powell's decision is in fact the good housekeeping seal of approval on Barack Obama.

Washington Post/ABC Tracker

The Washington Post/ABC tracker is out, and it confirms what we are seeing in other trackers today, that Obama's lead marginally has increased:

Obama 53
McCain 44

This poll yesterday was 52-44. So we're now in a position to sum up the six trackers we follow religiously:

Rasmussen, Obama +4
Research 2000/Daily Kos, Obama +6
Hotline, Obama +7
Zogby, Obama +7
ABC/Washington Post, Obama +9
Gallup Expanded Likely Voter Model, Obama +9

Talking Points Memo observes:

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.0%-44.1%, a lead of 6.9 points, compared to the 50.5%-44.2% Obama lead from yesterday.

The weighted average yesterday was 6.3.

Gallup Daily

The Gallup Daily Tracker is out, and these are the results:

Registered Voters
Obama 52
McCain 41

The numbers were 50-42 yesterday. This figure is now Obama +11.

Likely Expanded Voter Model
Obama 52
McCain 43

The numbers yesterday were 51-44. So the expanded model is Obama +9.

Traditional Model
Obama 51
McCain 43

Yesterday's numbers were 50-45, so Obama is up one point from yesterday, and McCain drops two point from yesterday. The traditional model is Obama +8.

As I Leave for Nevada

My bags are packed. The car is ready. My bedroom door is locked. The housesitter is here to watch my grandmother and my house.

Basically, I'm all ready to go. This will be the last time before the election that I will have this kind of time to sit down & chat with you. Because once I unpack at the hotel in Vegas, I will be busting my ass nonstop to help Obama win Nevada and get Dina Titus elected to Congress. I'll try my best to update you in these last few days on what's happening on the ground in Nevada, but I can't make any promises.

That's why I'll mostly be entrusting our C4O community to my fellow terrific admins. DCDemocrat and all our other wonderful bloggers will be providing you with campaign updates, polling news, and wise insight that only they can give.

And when I return, the fun will NOT end! Please stay tuned on November 5 as we unveil our post-election plans. I can hardly wait to share with you what's to come with C4O.

But in the mean time, please do whatever you can in these last five days to MAKE VICTORY HAPPEN! Whether it's making calls or knocking doors or organizing online, please keep up the good work. I'm so honored that you all have done so much alongside me to help Democrats win. Let's not stop now. Keep up the good fight, and I know we will win! :-)

Arizona is so close to being ours

Research 2000/DailyKos

McCain 48
Obama 47

Early voters (17 percent of sample)

McCain 42
Obama 54

Will the Youths Turn Out?

Well, will they? Will they vote? Take a look at some new stats on young voter turnout to see what's happening. :-)

David Plouffe tells us what it is

David Plouffe had one of his periodic telephone calls with the media and provided a number of promising details. Ben Smith at Politico reports:

On the conference call, David Plouffe made the case that in key states -- including Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, and New Mexico -- the race is already well on its way to being decided, because so many people have voted early.

Smith reports that Plouffe said:

We’re sort of out of the land of theory in a lot of these states. You’re starting to see how the election is going to unfold.

According to Plouffe, the new and sporadic voters are showing up. If you recall last night New York Times/CBS poll, the difference between that poll that had an 11-point margin and polls like Fox's was the projections about whether new voters would appear at the polls.

According to Scott Helman of boston.com, Plouffe noted that the campaign is opening advertising fronts in North Dakota, Georgia, and Arizona.

Plouffe said:

The die is being cast as we speak.

Locking down Arizona's 10 electoral votes

The Daily Courier reports that McCain will finish his effort to reach the presidency with a campaign stop in Prescott, Arizona on Monday evening.

GWU Battleground

Whoops! Where's the "tightening" that was promised? Not even GWU Battleground is showing any "tightening" for McCrazy!

Obama 49%
McCain 45%

McCrazy lost 1% from yesterday, so what was a 3% lead for Obama has increased 1% to a 4% Obama lead. Again, if even the least favorable polls for Obama show no "tightening", then McCrazy's in for a rough weekend. ;-)

Bottom of the Barrel

McBush is no longer scraping it. He's living down in it! Disgusting. :-(

First trackers of the day

Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 51
McCain 47

McCain's number in the Rasmussen poll has gone from 47-46-47 on three successive days. The phenomenon well might be an artifact of rounding with a fraction of a point explaining the fluctuation across the three days. Rasmussen observes:

McCain has been solidifying support, (but) Obama has not lost ground. This is the 36th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%.

Research 2000/Daily Kos reports this morning:

Obama 51
McCain 45

The numbers yesterday were 50-45. Dkos Poll Guru DemFromCT comments:

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +5 Tues, +5 Wed and +8 Thurs, with a +6 Mon sample rolling off (rounding can take place.) These are starting to look like stable numbers. The Obama video (33.6 million viewers) will start to be reflected today, but not completely until Sunday. The last R2K poll of the election will be published Monday.

R2K provides us its internals: It's interesting to note that the one day numbers yesterday, which have a margin of error of 5.1%, were 52-44, a phenomenon that may reflect the high viewership of the Obama television program.

Zogby saw the "race stuck in neutral":

Obama 50
McCain 43

Yesterday, his numbers were exactly the same for both candidates. Zogby opines:

The race for President appeared to slip into neutral Thursday, as support for Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain moved only slightly in the last 24 hours.

Hotline Diageo is out this morning with a poll that shows Obama's number steady with yesterday and McCain's number dropping by one point:

Obama 48
McCain 41

The numbers yesterday were 48-42.

Poll: McCain edging Obama in Louisiana

A poll conducted by Loyola University in New Orleans suggests there is a tight race for Louisiana's nine electoral votes:

McCain 43
Obama 40

The pollster observes that while McCain makes a strong showing among White voters, Obama shuts McCain out among African American voters. Moreover,

(There will) probably be people who don't usually vote, who don't vote often, or weren’t registered to vote until recently. Those people would not be heavy McCain voters. They would be Obama voters.

Happy Halloween from the scary folks at Clintonistas for Obama

New Mexico, Oregon, Colorado, Minnesota, West Virginia, and Michigan

Yeah, baby!

Public Policy Polling has a lot of fresh numbers this morning, and save for West Virginia, things are trending our way in a big way.

New Mexico

Obama 58
McCain 41

Observes PPP:

Obama is polling extremely well with two key groups of New Mexico voters: independents and Hispanics. Among independents he has a remarkable 66-28 lead, and with Hispanics it’s 62-37.

Oregon

Obama 57
McCain 42

Observes PPP:

He’s racked up a 64-35 lead with those who have already filled out their ballots and is winning across every demographic subset of the population that PPP tracks.

Colorado

Obama 54
McCain 44

Observes PPP:

Obama is also banking a huge lead in early voting. 65% of respondents said they had already cast their ballots, and among those folks Obama has an even more dominant 58-41 lead.

Minnesota

Obama 57
McCain 41

Observes PPP:

Obama is leading with every single demographic group that PPP tracks in the state- men, women, young voters, old voters, whites, blacks, etc. Perhaps most notably he has a 55-37 lead among independent voters, and is pulling twice as much of the Republican vote (12%) as John McCain is of the Democratic vote (6%).

West Virginia

McCain 55
Obama 42

Observes PPP:

Obama was never going to be able to win the state without exceeding 70% of the Democratic vote, and in this survey he leads just 65-31 among folks within his own party.

Michigan

Obama 55
McCain 42

PPP hasn't published its analysis of this race yet; only the topline numbers are available.

My Final Plea for Change

That's the front of my house. Sometimes, I feel so alone. I see McBush-Failin signs all over the neighborhood across the park from mine. I see the Christianists (aka radical right fundamentalists) put up signs in support of the marriage ban all over my neighborhood. Sometimes, I just want to cry because I feel so alone.



But you know what? In the last few weeks of walking my neighborhood and surrounding areas, I found out something quite reassuring. I'm actually not alone! Quite a few of my neighbors are just as disgusted with the radical right as I am. I can tell.

How so? They tell me. They tell me when I knock on their doors. They tell me with their bumper stickers. They tell me with their yard signs. They tell me that I'm not alone in wanting an end to fearmongering, an end to hatemongering, and the dawn of a new day filled with hope and understanding and compassion and love.

For far too long, the Rethuglicans have tried to convince all of us that each of us is alone and isolated. We're alone in not being truly "pro-America". We're alone in not persecuting gay & lesbian couples and blaming them for all our problems. We're alone in thinking that it's wrong to steal from the working class to bestow upon the ultra-wealthy.

But guess what? They're WRONG! We are not alone, and we'll find out on November 4.

That's why it's critical that we stand up now & let ours and! our friends' voices be heard! Whatever you can do, please do it! Give, volunteer, speak up.

I'll be leaving home tomorrow to help elect Democrats (including Barack Obama) to office in Nevada. But if you'll still be in California, please stay & work to defeat the hateful and bigoted Proposition 8 and elect great Democrats like Debbie Cook to office. This is our last call to make real change happen. Please take it.

What the heck. Another poll.

This one from The New York Times/CBS News:

Obama 52
McCain 41

Likely voters and conducted October 25-29.

Summary of the day's trackers

We are following six trackers here at Clintonistas for Obama, and here is the Obama spread on each of them:

Research 2000/Daily Kos, Obama +5
Rasmussen, Obama +5
Hotline, Obama +6
Zogby, Obama +7
Gallup Expanded Likely Voter Model, Obama +7
Washington Post/ABC, Obama +8

Talking Points Memo observes:

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.5%-44.2%, a lead of 6.3 points, compared to the 50.2%-44.4% Obama lead from yesterday.

In other words, Obama with an increase of 0.5 today more than made up in the trackers today what he lost yesterday (0.4). All of this is statistical noise.

And Finally, ABC-Washington Post...

ABC-WaPo is in, and here are today's numbers:

Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 44%

No change from yesterday. And again, no clear evidence of "tightening". McCrazy wants to believe that victory is in his reach, but it's now our job to make sure it doesn't get anywhere near him.

So far, so good. ;-)

IBD-TIPP Is In

Let's see where they have the state of the race.

Obama 48%
McCain 44%

Obama's +1 from yesterday, so he now has a +4 lead. So if the most conservative (in more ways than one) pollster so far this cycle shows a stable or slightly growing Obama lead just before we start to see post-30-Minute-Ad numbers, then I guess we're in good shape. ;-)

Clintonomics

It works. End of story. :-)

If It Worked for Taylor...

Then that 30 Second Ad must have been good! ;-)

SOUTH DAKOTA??!! YES. WE. CAN!

Believe.

McCain 45%
Obama 40%

And better yet, DO SOMETHING! Even if we don't win South Dakota, we can at least make McCrazy sweat here... And that's enough to help us WIN BIG. ;-)

Here's Gallup!

And what's the surprise? No surprise, really. Obama's still leading, no matter how you want to count it.

All Registered Voters:
Obama 50%
McCain 42%

"Traditional" Likely Voters:
Obama 50%
McCain 45%

"Expanded" Likely Voters:
Obama 51%
McCain 44%

Since yesterday, Obama lost 1% in All Registered Voters, gained 1% in "Traditional Likely Voters", and stayed the same among "Expanded Likely Voters". Basically, Gallup shows us a stable +5 to +8 Obama lead.

Nice. ;-)

Today's States of the Race

Brought to you by Allstate & National Journal! They've released their new set of swing state polls. To get a better sense of what's happened in the last 10 weeks, I've included their Mid-September numbers in parentheses.

Ohio:
Obama 48%
McCain 41%
(Was 41-42 for McCain)

Virginia:
Obama 48%
McCain 44%
(Was 41-48 for McCain)

Colorado:
Obama 48%
McCain 44%
(Was Obama 45-44)

Florida:
Obama 45%
McCain 44%
(Was Tied 44-44)

North Carolina:
Obama 47%
McCain 43%
(NC wasn't polled in September.)

The bad news: NJ shows a closer race than most other pollsters in these swing states.

The good news: LOOK AT THE TRENDLINE! Obama has risen dramatically in the last 10 weeks! He's gone from losing all these states except Colorado to leading in all of them. That's nothing short of breathtaking.

Conclusion: Again, we should NOT count on "winning" before we make it happen! Perhaps the trend is moving in our direction... Or perhaps not so much. Whether we're just barely ahead for leading by a mile, nothing really counts until after the polls close on November 4. So what are you waiting for? Get out and MAKE VICTORY HAPPEN! :-D

A deluge of polls

First, the Hotline Diageo daily tracker:

Obama 48
McCain 42

The numbers were 49-42 yesterday and 50-42 the day before. Comments Hotline:

After losing 2% of support over the last two days, Obama now leads by 6%. McCain meanwhile has held steady at 42% for five consecutive releases.

Hotline says that among people who already have voted, Obama leads 55-36.

Seltzer for The Indianapolis Star finds that in Indiana:

Obama 46
McCain 45

The article observes:

It portends a cliff-hanger election in Indiana, a state that usually is declared "red" by the TV networks within minutes of most polls in the state closing at 6 p.m.

We haven't heard too much from New Jersey, and for obvious reasons, as Research 2000 confirms:

Obama 54
McCain 38

The numbers were 50-41 in September. Again signaling McCain's suspense of his judgment in his choice of Sarah Palin, the article observes:

The poll indicates Republican presidential candidate John McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin hurt him with New Jersey voters.

Just as New Jersey holds no suspense, Texas holds no suspense. The University of Texas finds:

McCain 51
Obama 40
Barr 1

Here is a poll of a different stripe. Nielson reports that 21.7% of households, that is, one household in five in the United States, watched the Obama commercial last evening.

"JtP": The New JLo? KFed? TI?

Is this snark? Will he start dating Paris Hilton? And will he soon be on "Dancing With the Stars"?

Serious questions. hehe ;-)

Closing ads for Obama

Change vs. More of the Same

The choice couldn't be any clearer. Really.

That socialist rag, "The Economist," endorses Obama

That commie pinko terror rag, The Economist, has endorsed Senator Obama for president. The bastion of American capitalism notes that The Economist doesn't have a vote, but that if it did, it would vote for Barack Obama:

Mr Obama in (a) respect is a gamble. But the same goes for Mr McCain on at least as many counts, not least the possibility of President Palin. And this cannot be another election where the choice is based merely on fear. In terms of painting a brighter future for America and the world, Mr Obama has produced the more compelling and detailed portrait. He has campaigned with more style, intelligence and discipline than his opponent. Whether he can fulfil his immense potential remains to be seen. But Mr Obama deserves the presidency.

Nevada Early Voting UPDATE

Here's the latest news. Democrats have been outnumbering Republicans in early voting turnout so far by a 48%-34% margin in Washoe County (Reno) and a 52%-30% margin in Clark County (Las Vegas). And to put things further into perspective, Bush won Washoe County by 4% in 2004 while Kerry won Clark County by 6%. So far, SO GOOD for Democrats! ;-)

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

Political scientist and media commentator Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia projects the following results for this next Tuesday:

Presidential Electoral Votes
Obama 364
McCain 174

Senates Seats
Democrats 58-59
Republicans 41-42

(a pick up of seven or eight seats in the Sentate)

House Seats
Democrats 262-271
Republicans 164-173

(a pick up of 25 to 35 seats in the House)

Governors
Democrats 28-29
Republicans 21-22

(in other words, stay even or pick up one)

First trackers of the day

Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 51
McCain 46

Rasmussen's numbers yesterday were Obama 50, McCain 47, Others 1, and Undecided 2. Rasmussen observes:

This is the 35th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%. With the exception of yesterday, McCain’s support has stayed between 44% and 46% during that stretch.

Research 2000/Daily Kos reports this morning:

Obama 50
McCain 45

The numbers yesterday were 50-44. Note that Obama has been at 50 in this poll for four days; the number that is changing is McCain's which has increased one point each day in the same period, 42, 43, 44, and 45. Dkos Poll Meister DemFromCT comments:

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +6 Mon, +5 Tues and +5 Wed with a +5 Sun sample rolling off (rounding can take place.) These are starting to look like stable numbers. The Obama video will not be reflected until tomorrow.

In other words, it seems improbable that McCain's number will rise again tomorrow.

Zogby saw both a rise in Obama's number and a decline in McCain's number:

Obama 50
McCain 43

Yesterday, the numbers were 49-44. Zogby opines:

With less than a week to go, today’s numbers are not a good development for McCain. There is no momentum for him, and the clock is starting to run short. Worse news for McCain today is that Obama hit 50% in the single day of polling, while he dropped back to the low 40s. Obama increased his lead among independents compared to yesterday, has moved into a lead among men, and still holds about one in five conservatives. But six days, including Election Day, is an eternity and McCain cannot be counted out yet, though he may need a wing and a prayer.

CNN/Time: More morning poll goodness from the battlegrounds

From Time/CNN, more good news this morning:

Pennsylvania
Obama 55
McCain 43

North Carolina
Obama 52
McCain 46

Nevada
Obama 52
McCain 45

Ohio
Obama 51
McCain 47

Arizona
McCain 53
Obama 46

They conducted these polls between October 23 and October 28. The standard errors ranged between 3.5 and 4.0 points.

A message from Hillary and Bill Clinton

Obama's busy night

Late Nite Open Thread

What's happening tonight?

Fight the Suppression!

And thanks to TPM Muckraker, this becomes much easier! So please, see what's happening & fight for your right to vote!

My Take on The 30 Minute Ad

I can promise you that I will always tell you what I think and where I stand. I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face.

I will listen to you when we disagree. And most importantly, I will open the door of government and ask you to be involved in your own democracy again.

That was Barack Obama in tonight's 30 Minute Ad. And honestly, I thought the whole ad was BRILLIANT! I never cried during a political ad before. But just an hour ago, I was crying.

Why was I crying? It was real. I related with those people who are suffering under the current Bush-Cheney-McCain regime. I related with Barack Obama's family and what they go through everyday. Basically, I got what Obama was saying & I could tell he felt my pain.

Wait... He felt my pain? Yes, it was utterly CLINTONIAN! Obama is now channeling the same empathy and understanding that President Clinton had. This clearly helped elect Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and I now fully believe this will now help Barack Obama in 2008.

So all in all, this was a great success. Barack Obama used these special 30 minutes as well as he possibly could. He connected in a way that McCain may never be able to do. But still, we must NOT be complacent. We must now join Barack Obama in working as hard as we can to make victory happen.

We only have 5 days left, so let's go out & win this election! :-)

Brilliant informercial

It pulls on the heart strings. It portrays Obama caring about ordinary people with extraordinary challenges. It's great stuff. It's a masterpiece of politics. Morning in America stuff. Perfect.

Sarah Palin is in it for 2012

Obama 30-Minute Ad Open Thread

Are you watching now? I am. Be prepared to watch something amazing.

Afternoon States of the Race

Brought to you by Rasmussen!

Alaska:
McCain (R) 57%
Obama (D) 41%

New Mexico:
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Minnesota:
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

The bad news: I guess Alaska's not flipping blue any time soon.

The good news: We don't need Alaska to win! However, we DO need Minnesota & New Mexico. And so far, Obama's safely ahead in BOTH states. As long as Obama wins these & the other states where he's leading outside the margin of error, he wins next week.

Conclusion: Keep up the good work! We're almost there! ;-)

What Can We Expect After Tonight

Obviously, all of us are curious about what may or may not happen after Barack Obama gives the "closing argument" of his life on national teevee tonight. How will "swing voters" react? What will Obama supporters do? How will the McCrazy campaign respond? All these questions and more are swirling in my head, and I'm sure you've been thinking about it all as well.

So what happens? I guess there's no way for us to know until after it happens. Still, let me offer some words of encouragement.

First, the Obama campaign knows what it's doing. For us to think otherwise is needless worrying. If anyone can do something to "seal the deal" in this final week, I'm sure the smart strategists at Chicago HQ have designed this half-hour presentation to do just that.

Second, how the heck can a 30 minute primetime special on Obama's solutions for our troubled economy hurt us? For all the talk among the radical righties about this causing "a massive backlash", they're simply hoping for the nearly impossible. After all, remember how they all bragged about how "McCain will cream Obama in the debates"? Yeah, how did that work out for them? When we talk about the real-life concerns facing real Americans, Democrats win. And with the GOP desperately trying one more time to distract us with "lipstick" and "socialists" and "terrorists", now's the perfect time to redirect the conversation back to what matters.

And finally, let's not forget the facts on the ground. Democrats have been voting early in greater numbers than Republicans, something that's totally unprecedented. Democrats have a better ground game also this year, something that's also unprecedented. So far, we're doing well. But still, why take any risks in the last week? Why not give Democrats one more reason to be "fired up & ready to go"? This 30 minute program may be able to do just that.

So there. We have reason to feel good going into tonight's historic media event. While we shouldn't be cocky and complacent, we do have every reason to trust the campaign's judgment and do all we can in these last days to support our candidate and our party.

ABC/Washington Post Tracker Comes In

The ABC/Washington Post Tracker sees Obama position improved by one point as McCain loses one in today's tracker:

Obama 52
McCain 44

To sum up the six trackers we are following:

Rasmussen, +3
Zogby, +5
Research 2000/Daily Kos, +6
Gallup Expanded Voter Model, +7
Hotline, +7
ABC/Washington Post Tracker, +8

Talking Points Memo observes:

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.2%-44.4%, a lead of 5.8 points, compared to the 50.6%-44.4% Obama lead from yesterday.

Obama's weighted average yesterday was 6.2. If he were to lose 0.4 each day between now and election day, Obama would win by 3.8%.

Changes in CNN's electoral map

CNN likes to approach its electoral map, that magic map of John King's, with an especial caution. The map has shown the Kerry states, plus Iowa, plus New Mexico for Obama for quite a while now. But that wasn't enough to project Obama over the top. Then a little bit of time ago, they switched Virginia from toss-up to "leans Obama," and they projected Obama had a sufficient number of electoral votes to clinch the presidency were the election held at that time.

Today, they have changed three more states, and two of those changes have electoral implications:

1. They have moved Colorado into the "lean Obama" category, which gives Obama an additional 9 electoral votes according to their projections.

2. They have moved Indiana's 11 electoral votes out of the "lean McCain" category into the tossup category.

3. They have moved Washington State from "lean Obama" to "solid Obama."

As of Wednesday, October 29, CNN projects that, if the election were held today, Obama would receive 286 electoral votes, and McCain would receive 163. They rate 89 electoral votes, including Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, and Nevada, as toss-ups.

Ipsos-McClatchy: Obama up by six nationally

Ipsos-McClatchy
Obama 48
McCain 42

This poll was conducted by live telephone interviews among 831 likely voters between October 23 and October 27. It has a margin of error of +/-3.4.

Hot off the presses: battlegrounds still look good

These CNN/Time polls were finished yesterday:

Colorado
Obama 53
McCain 45

Florida
Obama 51
McCain 47

Georgia
McCain 52
Obama 47

Missouri
McCain 50
Obama 48

Virginia
Obama 53
McCain 44

Polls were conducted between October 23 and 28. Error margin: 3.5 points.

Electoral Vote dot com observes about the 2004 election results and polls:

In 46 states plus D.C. the candidate leading in the polls a week before the election did, in fact, carry the state.

Ugh, IBD-TIPP...

Well, I guess yesterday was a fluke. Their numbers today pretty much reverted back to Monday's.

Obama 47%
McCain 44%

I guess the silver lining here is that aside from their occasional wild swings both ways, IBD & TIPP have shown a fairly stable 3-4% Obama lead. And if the most pessimistic pollster has Obama ahead 3% nationally while most of the rest have a 5-10% Obama lead, then we're not really in all that bad shape less than a week out from the election. ;-)

It's Not Just 2008

Look at the first signs of what will happen in 2009. The seeds of change are sprouting. And if we keep up the good work, they'll grow & flourish all the way into 2009 & beyond. :-)

Whoops, No "Voter Fraud" in Nevada!

The Nevada Secretary of State has issued a report debunking all the myths of "VOTER FRAUD!!" that the Rethuglicans tried so hard to push. Oh noes, so how will McBush & Failin' now be able to suppress enough votes to win The West? Haha. Hooray for Nevada! Let the people vote!

Gallup looks at early voting trends

Gallup yesterday took a look at early voting trends. The poll said that 18 percent of persons who plan to vote already have voted, and another 15 percent of persons who plan to vote will do so before election day. If this comes to pass, a total of 31% of voters will have cast an early ballot. Here are the trends in the balloting:

Among Those Who Already Have Voted (votes in the bank already)
Obama 53
McCain 43

Among Those Who Plan to Vote between Now and Monday
Obama 54
McCain 40

Among Those Who Plan to Vote on Tuesday
Obama 50
McCain 44

Gallup Daily

The Gallup Daily Tracker is out, and these are the results:

Registered Voters
Obama 51
McCain 42

Obama up one point from yesterday; McCain drops a point from yesterday.

Likely Expanded Voter Model
Obama 51
McCain 44

Steady as she goes. Numbers are unchanged.

Traditional Model
Obama 49
McCain 46

Obama even with yesterday; McCain drops a point from yesterday.

Some Reflections, and a Mea Culpa

Earlier today I was reading a great diary called "I Was Wrong About Barack Obama" by Scan, a MyDD Hillary supporter who has "come around," as they say. This led me to engage in some reflection of my own about how we got where we are today and how my feelings about Barack Obama have evolved over the course of this campaign. Below, I'll repeat the lengthy comment I left in Scan's diary:

I always said that Obama had a bigger upside but also a bigger downside. I was doubtful about realizing the upside, but guess what, here it is. Hillary Clinton could have won this election, sure, but I don't believe she had the potential to win a mandate of the size that Obama is poised to achieve (knock on wood). I was right about one thing - the Republicans would have no problem whipping up Obama-hate just like they'd whip up Hillary-hate - but I failed to foresee a more important point: for whatever reason, Hillary-hate was perceived as mainstream and acceptable in a way that Obama-hate simply isn't. Maybe this is a function of the media liking him better but whatever, it's to our advantage.

There were two big turning points in this campaign: the choice of Sarah Palin, and McCain's erratic response to the economic crisis. To some extent, these were fortuitous from Obama's perspective since both were outside his control. But the important point is that they were not unforced errors. If McCain felt he could make a safe VP pick and win, he wouldn't have gone with Palin. It was because Obama had a great convention and seized all the momentum that McCain felt he needed a game-changer. Similarly, McCain's "suspension" of his campaign was a gimmick that he pulled because his back was up against the wall thanks to Obama. These mistakes by McCain don't happen if Obama doesn't run a strong campaign.

Two things I'll say about Obama, things that others saw while I remained a skeptic. First is that I always felt his primary campaign was sort of gimmicky. When he won Iowa, I was impressed like everyone, but I seriously questioned whether his model was capable of repitition. Sure, if you get six months to set up shop in a small state, you can shake every hand and ensure massive turnout, but no way could he pull that off in every state, or on Super Tuesday where it's impossible to focus your resources in the same way. Even after he met this challenge during the balance of the primaries, I had my doubts that he could translate the success into a GE model, because you need a broad base of support and not just a super-enthusiastic one. Well, he met that challenge too. My hat is off.

I credit Obama's generally excellent campaign not just to the smart people who ran it, but also to the guy at the top who quite clearly had a vision and an understanding of the nuts and bolts of a successful campaign. If you look at McCain, you see a guy who doesn't have a clue as far as what states to focus on or what groups to target or any of that, and he basically lets the handlers tell him where to go next and what to say. The result is that when you don't have strong views of your own, you basically have these disparate factions within the campaign yanking you in several directions at once. Hillary suffered from a similar problem; as great a campaigner as she was, she didn't take sufficient charge of the management of her campaign and it showed. And can I mention that the overall lack of leakiness from the Obama campaign is an incredibly new and exciting thing to see from Democrats?

The second thing about Obama is what gets me truly excited and optimistic, because this relates more to governance than campaigning. It's become clear to me that Obama really does have an understanding, based on his background and studies, of how change actually happens in the real world. The best historical example of someone who "got it" in this way was Dr. Martin Luther King. If you read up on him, he wasn't just a guy making eloquent speeches and engaging in random acts of protest. When he had a cause, sometimes he'd organize a protest march, or maybe it would be a boycott or a sit-in or whatever, but in all cases it was a calculated act designed to apply pressure at exactly the weak point where it was needed. He wasn't just out there in the street, waving a sign so he could feel good about himself for having gone on record against something. This is why 99% of protests have no measurable impact on the real world but MLK was someone who got stuff done.

You can tell Obama gets this, from the way he talks about why movements failed in the past, from the way he stays cool and keeps his options open when things don't just happen overnight. It's obvious to everyone that we face serious challenges in this country and that just because Obama ran a good campaign, we have no guarantees about how the next four or eight years will go. But it's clear that he has the potential, at a minimum, to make a big difference in the future of this country. I see the assets he brings to the table in a way I simply didn't before. Who would have imagined it, I guess I've come to Obama.

"Joe the Unlicensed Plumber/Foreign Policy Expert"?

Is this snark?. Serious question. ;-)

GWU Battleground

GWU Battleground is in, and here's what they say:

Obama 49%
McCain 46%

No change from yesterday. It will be OK. Just breathe.

Well, at least that's what I tell myself. ;-)

MORE States of the Race!

So you can't get enough state polls? Well, here are some more polls from Quinnipiac that show what's happening in the three biggest swing states.

Florida:
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 45%

Ohio:
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 42%

Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 41%

The bad news: Florida is close.

The good news: Florida is close, so McCrazy's original plan to "bank" on The Sunshine State's 27 EVs isn't working! Also, Obama still looks to be running away with The Buckeye State & The Keystone State. If Obama wins Ohio & Pennsylvania, then it's all over on Tuesday night... WE WIN!

Conclusion: Again, DON'T LET UP! Keep working. Keep calling. Keep walking. As long as we work for it, we will win! :-D

The Morning's States of the Race

AP-GfK has released a new round of state polls, so let's take a look at what they're showing.

Florida:
Obama (D) 45%
McCain (R) 43%

North Carolina:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 46%

Ohio:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 41%

Virginia:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 42%

Colorado:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 41%

Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 40%

Nevada:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 40%

New Hampshire:
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 37%

The bad news: Florida and North Carolina look tight.

The good news: Obama still has the edge there in these crucial final days. And even better, Obama leads far outside the margin of error in all the other states reporting! With states like Colorado and Nevada & states like Virginia and Pennsylvania showing such strong leads for Obama, it looks like "the firewall" is holding up and he has at least 300 EVs firmly in his corner.

Conclusion: Still, we can NOT afford to be complacent! The national polls suggest that a little tightening may be happening, so we need to work as hard as we can to secure all these leads in all these states. So please, let's keep up the good work and win this election! :-D

First trackers of the day

Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 50
McCain 47
Others 1
Undecided 2

Rasmussen's numbers yesterday were 51-46. Rasmussen's explanation of his numbers deserves a read. Rasmussen observes:

Among those who “always” vote in general elections, Obama leads by just a single point. Obama does better among more casual voters. However, among those with a high degree of interest in this year’s campaign, Obama leads by four. Among those who say they are following the race closely on a daily basis, Obama leads by five.

Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.

As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%. Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided.

Research 2000/Daily Kos reports this morning:

Obama 50
McCain 44

The numbers yesterday were, that is, 50-43. Dkos Poll Meister DemFromCT comments:

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +5 Sunday, +6 Mon, and +5 Tues with a +9 Sat sample rolling off.

Zogby saw a slight decline in both Obama's and McCain's numbers and a slight increase in undecideds, but through rounding, McCain's number (and not Obama's) this morning takes the hit:

Obama 49
McCain 44

Yesterday, the numbers were 49-45. Zogby once again denies his burning itch to make headlines and eschews any grand pronouncements about the imminent Apocalypse and the Second Coming of Jesus. Uncharacteristically humble, Zogby opines:

The race for President of the United States remained essentially frozen in time yesterday, with very little movement just a week to go before Election Day.

Hotline sees the race a little closer this morning, too:

Obama 49
McCain 42

The numbers yesterday were 50-42.

Telegraph: Republicans fear an Obama landslide

The Telegraph reports that senior Republicans believe we are on the precipice of an epic election:

Aides to George W.Bush, former Reagan White House staff and friends of John McCain have all told The Sunday Telegraph that they not only expect to lose on November 4, but also believe that Mr Obama is poised to win a crushing mandate.

The article goes on to suggest that they anticipate the election will provide Obama more political capital to remake the political landscape than Ronald Reagan enjoyed after the 1980 election.

The Telegraph last Friday published an article about police concern that were McCain to win on Tuesday night and the facts on the ground look suspicious, such an outcome would result in civil unrest. James Carville on CNN summed up the situation when he observed:

If Obama goes in and he has a consistent five-point lead and loses the election, it would be very, very, very dramatic out there.

The article sums up the situation:

Law enforcement officials say the intense public interest and historic nature of the vote could lead to violent outbreaks if people are unhappy with the results, encounter problems casting their ballots or suspect voting irregularities.

I suspect that is true.

Another Pennsylvania Poll Shows a Double-Digit Obama Lead

John McCain senses an opening in Pennsylvania, and he is working hard to exploit it. It must be troubling for McCain, what his internal polls may be telling him, that one public pollster and after another has seen a formidable Obama lead in the Keystone State. This morning comes a new poll by Franklin & Marsh/Daily News that suggests the senator from Illinois enjoys a 13-point advantage among likely voters over the senator from Arizona:

Obama 53
McCain 40

Obama's advantage among voters in Pennsylvania is nearly twice what it was in September.

Late Nite Open Thread

Wazzup? :-D

So Far, So Good With Early Voting

More happy stats from 538.com. Yay! Keep it up, everyone! ;-)

Sarah the Socialist

So who's been putting "spread the wealth around" into practice as Governor of a rural, oil-rich state? Barack Obama? Nope. Try Sarah Palin!

Ah, the putrid stench of Republican hypocrisy!

Talk About "Pro-America Family Values"!

Is this what Sarah Palin was talking about. Really?

ABC Tries to Compete With Obama

No, really! Because ABC waited too long to answer the Obama campaign's request to buy the 8:00-8:30 PM time slot, they're now trying desperately to keep their viewers from switching to the Obama 30 minute ad on the other networks. Haha. So if I had to choose, what would I watch? "Pushing Daisies" or something that's never been done on TV before?

Sorry, ABC, but if I weren't on The Left Coast I'd have to choose "Barack TV". ;-)

Ready for change?

As the GOP Falls Apart...

Haha. The entire radical right GOP "coalition" is collapsing. They're all turning on each other.

Perhaps the best part of this next week is witnessing Rush Limbaugh's drug-filled head explode. ;-)

LA Times Sez: Obama Ahead in Ohio & Florida

Whoops! McBush may just be losing the two last swing states he was banking on for victory. Here are the new LA Times-Bloomberg polls out:

Ohio:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 40%

Florida:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 43%

These are McCain's last hope of a win in a week. If he loses either of these states to Obama, stick a fork in his White House chances. So come on, you know what we need to do... Keep working until we WIN! :-)

Our Final Trackers for Today

It's OK to breathe. Really.

ABC-Washington Post:
Obama 52%
McCain 45%

IBD-TIPP:
Obama 48%
McCain 44%

Phew! ABC-WaPo is unchanged from yesterday, while IBD-TIPP shows Obama +1 from yesterday. All in all, it looks like we have a stable Obama lead.

Keep up the good work & we'll win this election! :-D

Arizona Is a Dead Heat

Really! Cronkite/8 News shows a dead heat in its new poll!

McCain (R) 46%
Obama (D) 44%

WHOA! If I were in the McBush campaign, I wouldn't want to be in the same room with the candidate on November 4. Especially if Obama pulls off an upset win in Arizona, I could see McCrazy losing it.

Ah, poetic justice! ;-)

The World Series and Obama's Speech

I don't know how many of you are baseball fans, but doubtless even those of you who are not baseball fans know that the Philadelphia Phillies and the Tampa Bay Rays are facing off. Right now, the series is 3-1 in favor of the Philadelphia Phillies. They tried to play the game last night in a monsoon and finally called it off after the Tampa Bay Rays tied the game (2-2) in the top of the 6th inning. The game was supposed to be a go from the top of the sixth this evening. But the weather has not cooperated. It has been rescheduled for tomorrow evening, immediately following Barack Obama's half-hour speech.

Now, if the Phillies come out on top during the next three innings, they will win the World Series for 2008. I suspect that an investment of time in three innings that will decide the year's top team probably is of great interest to many Americans.

The universe has conspired to put those three innings immediately after Obama's speech. I can't imagine that the numbers in his audience are going to suffer any as the result of this accident.

Hooray for Florida!

Early voting has just been extended, thanks to an executive order from Gov. Charlie Crist (R). Yes, you heard me right. For once, a Florida Republican actually did something to help people vote!

So whatever Crist's motivations were, we here at C4O are glad that more Florida voters will actually be able to have their say. :-)

So Far, So Good in The Silver State

That's what The Las Vegas Sun. Democrats continue to hold a large advantage in on-site early voting while only being slightly behind in vote-by-mail returns. Overall, this means Democrats hold a key edge in early voting.

So let's keep up the good work in Nevada! :-)

A bit more on Georgia

Clayton County, Georgia voters started early voting yesterday. This is a suburban African American community. People waited up to 12 hours in line to vote.

Mid-day States of the Race

Fortunately for us, Open Left has the great news! Where should we begin?

Strategic Vision-

Wisconsin:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 41%

New Jersey:
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 38%

Politico-Insider Advantage-

Colorado:
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 45%

Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 41%

Suffolk-

Nevada:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 40%

The bad news: Where?

The good news: The Mid-Atlantic States that gave us heartburn only a couple months ago, Pennsylvania & New Jersey, have come home strongly for Barack Obama. Wisconsin, a state that also looked close for a while, also looks strong for Obama. And now, the two Western Swing States of Nevada & Colorado that looked all tied up in the summer now look very strong for Obama.

Conclusion: WOW! This is simply stunning. Look at what our hard work is accomplishing! We are so close to a historic Democratic victory that will sweep through the Rust Belt all the way to the Mountain West. We're almost there, so let's keep going. Keep it up, and I know we will win & WIN BIG! :-D

Deadheat in Georgia

A Republican pollster, Insider Advantage, finds that the race for Georgia is razor thin:

McCain, 48%
Obama, 47%
Barr, 1%
Other, 1%
Undecided, 3%

Comments the president of Insider Advantage:

Ironically, Obama had a better shot of winning Georgia than North Carolina or Florida but he’s letting it slip away.

From time to time, I offer a guestimate of what is occurring in early voting in Georgia. As of today, 1,206,891 Georgians have cast early ballots, and among them, 35.4% (n=427,076) were African American.

If we assume that African Americans in Georgia cast 95% of their votes for Obama and 5% of their votes for McCain and further assume that 30% of other voters cast their votes for Obama and 70% of their votes for McCain, these are the numbers that result:

Obama
401,451 African American
241,632 Other
________
643,083

McCain
25,625 African American
563,808 Other
_______
589,433

In other words, early voting in Georgia, given my assumptions, would be:

Obama 53.2
McCain 48.8

Gallup Daily

Reporting some tightening, a phenomenon seen in the other trackers (except Hotline) either yesterday or today, Gallup Daily Tracker is out. Here are their three scenarios:

Registered Voters
Obama 50
McCain 43

The numbers were 52-42 yesterday.

Expanded Likely Voter Model (Intent)
Obama 51
McCain 44

The numbers were 53-43 yesterday.

Traditional Likely Voter Model (Intent and past behavior)
Obama 49
McCain 47

The numbers were 50-45 yesterday.

Gallup comments:

One forthcoming event with the potential to affect voter sentiments is a 30-minute Barack Obama paid program, for which his campaign has purchased time on Wednesday night on a number of national broadcast and cable television networks.

Today's States of the Race

Brought to you by Mason-Dixon & NBC News! Come on, let's take a look at what's happening!

Montana:
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 44%

North Carolina:
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 47%

New Hampshire:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 39%

The bad news: North Carolina looks awfully tight, so we can't afford to let up in The Tar Heel State!

The good news: Who would've ever guessed that "the bad news" would be North Carolina TIED... SERIOUSLY??!! Also, how 'bout Montana? Montana's a swing state!! Oh yeah, and whoo-hoo to The Granite State! Rasmussen & Marist suggested a tightening race in New Hampshire, but neither Mason-Dixon (which has NO Democratic lean!) nor other recent polls (like the University of NH) seems to show that.

Conclusion: Don't let up! The states of the race look good, but we can't afford to be complacent in these numbers. We need to secure a lock on AT LEAST 270 electoral votes before we start chatting about a "landslide".

So what are you waiting for? Let's win this election! :-D

The Race for Congress Looks Good

Swing State Project has released it's new House Forecast. And believe it or not, we're in for another "wave"! Haha, the Rethuglicans just can't catch a break. ;-)

Baffo Pew Numbers

Pew Research Center foresees an historic landslide come next Tuesday. Their numbers among registered voters are these:

Obama 52
McCain 36

That's right. That's a 16-point edge for Obama.

Among likely voters, they see the race narrower by one point:

Obama 53
McCain 38

Pew observes:

Just as ominous for the Republican candidate, Obama holds a 53% to 34% lead among the sizable minority of voters (15%) who say they have already voted. Among those who plan to vote early but have not yet voted (16% of voters), 56% support Obama, while 37% support McCain.

That's right, Obama currently leads in the early vote by 19 points, and Pew believes it possible that that is the advantage he will have when the sun rises on election day next week.

More on Arizona

According to the Arizona Capitol Times:

Two Democratic polls were the first to illustrate a closing advantage for McCain. A poll conducted Oct. 23-24 by Virginia-based Myers Research and Strategic Services and Portland, Oregon-based Grove Insight shows McCain leading Obama 48 percent to 44 percent. Meanwhile, a poll conducted by Tucson-based Zimmerman & Associates showed McCain leading by just a 44 percent to 42 percent.

More disturbingly for Republicans, at least one internal Republican poll conducted toward the end of the week showed McCain clinging to a tiny 3-point lead. McCain is tied in Maricopa County, usually seen as a death knell for any statewide Republican candidate, but he makes up the difference with a strong performance in the northern part of the state.

That's right, an internal poll for the Republicans show McCain leading by just three points in the Grand Canyon State.

Pew Sez: What "McSurge"?!

The Pew Center for the People & the Press has its new national poll out. And guess what? There's no big "McSurge" for us to worry about! The media may be chattering about "tightening", but there's none to see in the Pew poll.

All Registered Voters:
Obama 52%
McCain 36%

Likely Voters:
Obama 53%
McCain 38%

Already Voted:
Obama 53%
McCain 34%

Will Vote Before Next Tuesday:
Obama 56%
McCain 37%

Oh, my! McBush isn't digging himself out of the hole he's in. If we're to believe Pew, he's only digging deeper into it.

Let's see what this week's other polls show. But so far, it looks like we have ourselves a stable race. And now, a stable race means a nice Democratic win next Tuesday! :-D

CNN Poll of Polls in Pennsylvania

CNN like its poll averaging technique, and they've released a new one for Pennsylvania:

Obama 52
McCain 42

Ohio from SUSA USA

Survey USA releases new numbers that show Obama with a 49-45 margin in the Buckeye State, but the breakout of early voters and likely voters yet to cast a ballot is particularly interesting.

Among those who already have voted:

Obama 56
McCain 39

Among those who are likely to vote by the close of the polls on November 4:

Obama 47
McCain 47

First trackers of the day

All three morning trackers suggest that a week out from the national election, the polls have tightened. Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 51
McCain 46

These were Rasmussen's numbers yesterday as well. Rasmussen observes:

Nationally, Obama has now been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 33 straight days. During that 33-day stretch, Obama’s voter support has stayed between 50% and 52% every day while McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range.

Research 2000/Daily Kos reports this morning:

Obama 50
McCain 43

The numbers yesterday were, that is, 50-42. Dkos Poll Guru DemFromCT comments:

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +9 Sat, +5 Sunday and +6 Mon, with a +11 Friday sample rolling off.

Zogby saw slight decline in both Obama's and McCain's numbers, though by rounding. McCain's number seem stable:

Obama 49
McCain 45

Yesterday, the numbers were 50-45. Zogby doesn't make any headline-grabbing pronouncements about the statistical noise in his numbers, but he does make this interesting observation:

Among those voters who have already cast ballots, Obama continues to lead – today by 18 points, while Obama and McCain are dead–even among those who are likely to vote but who have not yet cast their ballots.

Hotline Diageo for the third straight day posts the same numbers:

Obama 50
McCain 42

There is an interesting article by pollster Steve Lombardo at pollster.com. The article is entitled, "Eight Days to Go and McCain Can't Seem to Break Through." The take away paragraph perhaps is this:

While McCain has stopped most of his downward slide, he still lags Obama nationally and in key states. The LCG regression analysis shows McCain behind by 7.6 points. If the current trend holds, McCain will lose the election by 8.7 points. To give you an idea of the hole McCain finds himself in, we have not seen a single reputable national poll showing McCain at or above 50% in more than a month.

Today's First Trackers

Let's see what they're telling us.

Research 2000:
Obama 50%
McCain 43%

OK, it looks a little scary at first. However, remember that Sunday's Obama +5 number is included in today's average. And with yesterday being Obama +6, it looks like we may start to see a recovery over the week.

Rasmussen:
Obama 51%
McCain 46%

No change from yesterday. Of all the trackers, Rasmussen has been clearest in showing a stable race. We've seen Obama at or above 50% and with a 4-8% lead for about a month now, so this reassures me.

Diageo-Hotline:
Obama 50%
McCain 42%

Nice. The same numbers for three days in a row. Let's hope these numbers hold over the next and final week!

So far, so stable, so good. Let's wait & see how the other trackers report.

Sarah Palin declared a "whack job"

Anyone who looks into Clintonistas for Obama from time-to-time might know that I like styling Michele Bachmann, "the Whack Job Authentique." Apparently, there's a nomination that Sarah Palin also receive the appellation, "Whack Job." Mike Allen at Politico writes:

A top McCain adviser one-ups the priceless “diva” description, calling her “a whack job.”

The candidates' schedules

One week from now, we will decide the thing for once and for all. Word came yesterday that the the RNC has bought advertising time in Montana in an effort to win its three electoral votes for John McCain. The last Democrat to win in Montana was Bill Clinton in 1992 when Ross Perot was on the ballot. This year, Ron Paul is on Montana's ballot.

In any event, where the candidates go during the final days of the election can tell us a lot about what they hope to accomplish on election day. So without further ado, here is what we know about the candidates' and their surrogates' schedules as we go forward. First the Democrats and then the Republicans

Democrats

Today:

Obama: Pennsylvania, Virginia
Joe Biden: Florida
Michelle Obama: New Mexico, Colorado
Hillary: New Hampshire

Wednesday:

Obama: North Carolina, Florida
Joe Biden: Florida
Michelle Obama: North Carolina
Bill Clinton: Pennsylvania, Florida

Thursday:

Obama: Florida, Missouri
Joe Biden: Missouri
Bill Clinton: Florida, West Virginia, Minnesota

Republicans

Today:

McCain: Pennsylvania, North Carolina
Palin: Pennsylvania

Wednesday:

McCain: Florida
Palin: Ohio, Indiana

Thursday:

McCain: Pennsylvania
Palin: Pennsylvania, Missouri

Friday:

McCain: Ohio

Saturday:

Palin: North Carolina

Analysis of what we know

Bill and Hillary Clinton add substantial heft to the Democrats as surrogates for Senators Obama and Biden. Both the Democrats and Republicans appear to be leaving the mountain west; Michelle has events scheduled today in Colorado and New Mexico, and after that, there are no more scheduled events for the candidates in the west.

Pennsylvania gets a lot of love with four scheduled person days by the Republicans and two by the Democrats, a total of six scheduled person days there with a moderately strong emphasis by the Republicans who spend more time in Pennsylvania than in other state on their schedules.

John McCain spends only one day in Florida, but the Democrats will be there three days in a row with five scheduled person days for a total of six scheduled persons days with a decided emphasis on the state by Democrats.

North Carolina is going to get some more attention. At the moment, the Democrats have scheduled two person days there and the Republicans have scheduled two person days there. The Republicans obviously expect the polls to remain tight there, because they have an event schedule on Saturday for Palin. Four scheduled persons days in North Carolina at the moment.

Missouri gets the next amount of attention. The Democrats have scheduled two person days there, and the Republicans have scheduled one.

Presently, the Democrats have no more scheduled events in Ohio, but the Republicans have two.

Miscellanae include one visit by the Democrats to each of New Hampshire (Hillary), Virginia (Obama), West Virginia (Bill Clinton), and Minnesota (Bill Clinton). At the moment, the Republicans are still trying ensure Indiana's electoral votes with a visit by Sarah Palin. All-in-all, the candidates and their surrogates currently have events planned in a total of 12 states: nine of them were red in 2004, and three of them were blue. Aside from the red state-tilt of the candidates' campaigns, there is special emphasis on Pennsylvania by the Republicans and Florida by the Democrats.

Perceptions about the winner

Gallup has a video out on a new poll it conducted over the weekend about the perceptions of who would win the election.

By a large margin, 71-23, Americans believe Barack Obama will be the victor. In 2004, Americans thought Bush would win by margins of 56-36. In 2000, at one sampling, voters thought Bush would win and at another sampling, they thought Gore would win, so they both turned out to be right given the history of that race.