Saturday, October 11, 2008
couldn't put poor Humpty together again. Florida at 50%?! If that's the case come November 4, Barack Obama is president. Period.
Hey, it beats sitting around the house while still trying to figure out all the new features of this new "smartphone" of mine! :-D
So what are you up to today? Who are you working for? Or are you even at work?
OK, I'd better get back to figuring out this neighborhood in Garden Grove. I have some walking for Debbie Cook to do! :-)
Obviously, that a 10 point race; the margin between the two candidates seven points when the poll measured Obama at 49 and McCain at 41.
For all statistical intents and purposes, Gallup Daily also sees the race exactly the same way:
That's a nine point race, slightly tighter (but not meaningfully) than it was yesterday when it was 51-41.
The four trackers with the longest history in the field in this race all see Obama at 50 or above (52-52-51-50) and McCain at 44 or below (44-42-40-40), suggesting that Obama likely leads by somewhere between six and 12 points.
This is the first update based entirely on interviews conducted after the second Presidential debate and it shows virtually no change. On Tuesday morning, just before the debate, Obama was leading 52% to 44%.Though Rasmussen calls the race stable, and statistically, it is true, the margin this morning is three points wider than yesterday when the race was 50 to 45.
Research 2000/Daily Kos also suggests the amazing durability of Obama's lead. This morning's tracker suggests that Obama continues to maintain a 12 point lead over McCain:
DemFrom CT at Daily Kos observes:
On successive days in the R2K poll, Obama was up +12 Wed, +14 Thurs and +12 Fri. Wednesday-Friday's sample represent entirely post-debate polling. Obama's percentage has been at or above 50 since 9/29.
McCain Supporters in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania
The Republican nominee for president has built his career on a premise of fastidiousness to principle even when it meant he had to step on the toes of his friends and party. For his willingness to do this, he garnered for himself the appellation maverick.
Yet his ambition to be president of the United States has so consumed him, he has been willing to lay aside every virtue that made him appealing during his long career in order to pander to a small but powerful segment of his party's base. During the general election campaign, he has found himself up against a young and charismatic politician with broad and deep appeal during a time of great national crisis when circumstances in the crisis have favored his opponent. The things that have caused some in the nation to hesitate at the selection of the younger man are personal heritable characteristics, such as skin color, name, and rearing. Basely, and perhaps exposing some heretofore unrecognized corruption in his psyche, John McCain has sought to exploit unhealed wounds in the American spirit to gain the upper hand against Barack Obama. Unable to make a case against his opponent based on the great issues of the day, McCain crassly chose instead to make people aware and afraid of otherness in order to advance his personal aggrandizement.
Terrifyingly, McCain has come close to fanning the flame of the sort of hatred that fueled the Ku Klux Klan for more than a century; his behavior caused myriad observers of the race, observers in both parties, to fear the tenor of his campaign might lead to unthinkable violence. Moreover, McCain has fomented a narrative among his base to doubt the legitimacy of Obama's election to the presidency, if in fact, this be the outcome of the election on November 4.
Part of McCain's effort to exploit the ugly underside of American history was the cynical nomination of Sarah Palin to be vice president of the United States. Attractive, voluble, and energetic, the governor of Alaska on even cursory examination has proven unequal to the call she received. Her appeal to a section of the electorate most vulnerable to fear-mongering was apparent from the outset to those of us in the progressive movement. But her selection brought to the national campaign unresolved legal problems related to per diems, unpaid taxes, and abuses of power that have proven unwelcome distractions to the Republican ticket. Blinded by a lust for power, McCain rashly chose a running mate who has brought to his campaign a relentless string of problems.
Over a few hours on a Friday evening in the first third of the month of October, a mere few weeks before election day, the whole program became derailed. His poll numbers crashing and concern at the tenor of his campaign publicly voiced by honest brokers in his party, John McCain had to say that Americans had no reason to fear Barack Obama as president. Having abandoned the issues to Obama, the only thing that McCain had left was fear, but because fear as a tactic had raised the ugly specter of unthinkable violence, McCain was forced to retreat from the raison d'etre of his campaign, that is, that the embrace of change was too risky.
Even more astonishing, in the same several hours, a bipartisan committee of the Alaskan legislature composed of a majority of Republicans and a minority of Democrats, voted to issue a report that, like some petty despot, the governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, the Republican nominee for vice president of the United States, meanly did abuse her public trust to pursue a private vendetta. Let us make no mistake about this: presidents of the United States have been brought to trial in the Senate for removal from office for charges of lesser magnitude than the crime the report purports Palin has committed. As Gerald Ford famously said when he succeeded to office upon the resignation of Richard Nixon, "We are a government of laws, not men." For justice to be served, Sarah Palin ought to be impeached for her actions, and if found guilty by the legislature of her state, she should be removed from her high office. That's a fact, whether or not it occurs.
So there we have it. Who knows where this will end and what paths the tale will take to reach the last period of the last chapter, but there are in this story the makings of a Greek tragedy: a hero with an Achilles's heal in his lust for power that caused him to eviscerate his legend to achieve his ambition, and if justice be served, in the end, neither to possess the prize for which he compromised himself nor the legend for which he congratulated himself.
Friday, October 10, 2008
The Anchorage Daily News reports that lawmakers have voted 12-0 release the report on the troopergate affair. The vote was unanimous.
The report says Sarah Palin did unlawfully violate her power as governor.
We are all in this together. Necessity is the mother of bipartisanship. And so, for the first time in my life, I'll be pulling the Democratic lever in November. As the saying goes, God save the United States of America.
Who do you think this is? Lincoln Chafee? Jim Leach? Chuck Hagel? Some other moderate Republican disgusted with the current state of the GOP?
Nope, it's CHRISTOPHER BUCKLEY of "National Review"! Yes, William F. Buckley's son will be voting for a Democrat this fall! Crazy, huh? Nah, it's nothing compared to a "normal" day at the McCrazy campaign. ;-)
This poll was done by telephone interview on October 9 with 531 likely voters and a standard error of +/- 4.0%. I imagine that Palin is planning a bus tour through Georgia even now.
This poll was done by telephone interview on October 9 with 509 likely voters and a standard error of +/- 4.0%. Actually, Palin is already scheduled to be in reliably red southeast Ohio.
CNN is reporting:
In what may be another signal that the troubled economy is forcing John McCain’s campaign to play electoral map defense, Sarah Palin has scheduled a bus tour for Sunday through West Virginia, a state that’s been leaning red throughout this presidential race.When the Republican ticket isn't pushing the latest sleaze it dreams up, it's attempting to put out fires on the electoral map. I think it's a good thing that McCain feels he needs to send Palin to West Virginia. It means the Obama campaign really must be making inroads in West Virginia.
Last month, Obama and McCain were tied at 46 percent apiece. Observes Newsweek:
Underlying Obama's surge in support: An historic boiling over of dissatisfaction with the status quo. An astounding 86 percent of voters now say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States, while a mere 10 percent say they are satisfied.This poll was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International from Oct. 8-9, 2008 by means of telephone interviews with 1,035 registered voters and a standard error of +/-3.7%.
In the face of so much rage pushed by McCain and Palin, this is how Obama responds:
The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday and had a standard error of +/-3.0. Prior polls by Fox since the end of the Republican National Convention were:
The poll found that Obama-Biden had the edge in voters' perceptions of their judgment, "right change," understanding the problems of American families, and understanding America's role in the world. The McCain-Palin ticket had the advantage on experience.
"I pledge to fight the Supreme Court's decision to allow gay marriage in California by working to ensure the passage of the California Marriage Protection Act this November," Walters concluded.Yes, she doesn't just oppose Gay Marriage, Mimi Walters is doing all she can to see that Proposition Eight passes this November.
Mimi Walters Calls Supreme Court Ruling on Gay Marriage a Travesty for Family ValuesAnd Assemblywoman Walters not only opposes marriage equality, she works adamantly against our Counties unions and public education. Gary Pritchard has come across many Republican PTA parents who were appalled by the reaction they received from Walters when they approached her as concerned parents. Walters doesn't even have to pretend to care about the issues that are a concern to both Republicans and Demorats in her district, why would she be any different in the State Senate? And to wit, why would she be any different as she continues to climb the electoral ladder. Mimi Walter's ambitions do not stop at State Office, she's determined to move on to Federal seats.
SACRAMENTO - Today, in response to the California Supreme Court ruling that struck down Proposition 22 on a 4-3 vote, Assemblywoman Mimi Walters called the decision a travesty for family values.
"The Supreme Court today blatantly disregarded the will of Californians to protect the sacred institution of marriage. The Court stated that it could not 'find that the retention of the traditional definition of marriage constitutes a compelling state interest,'" Walters said. "I could not disagree more strongly with the Court's ruling today. Marriage between a man and a woman is the foundation of our society, and the Court's action is a travesty for family values."
"Today's decision completely ignores the will of over 60% of California's voters who approved Proposition 22 eight years ago," Walters continued.
The California Marriage Protection Act, an initiative in circulation that has gathered 1.5 million signatures and will appear on the November ballot, will write into the California Constitution that the only marriages recognized in this state are those between one man and one woman.
"I pledge to fight the Supreme Court's decision to allow gay marriage in California by working to ensure the passage of the California Marriage Protection Act this November," Walters concluded.
My husband Gary Pritchard, could not be more different from Assemblywoman Watlers. Not only is Gary a teacher, we have a five year old in Orange County's public schools. Gary is also a Union member, proudly so.
When the Orange County Employees Association had a food drive for their members this summer, Gary Pritchard was there with a box full of donations. Even as we struggled to get through the summer, it was imperative that we support those who not as lucky as Gary and I. You don't just talk the talk, you walk the walk.
And as you can see from the photo, the board was grateful for the gesture (I also found out that Gary gave a twenty to a guy circling the parking lot in his truck, he had driven from Riverside to Orange County to collect a check owed to him and the business was not to be found. He needed money for gas TO GET BACK HOME).
I'm so proud of this man, I'm so proud that he's stood up to say that there is a choice, that we have to give people an alternative to Republicans in Orange County and that he put his name on the ballot to give people that choice.
And here is Charlotte with our second rescue dog, Emma. Rescue dogs are like potato chips, you can't just have one! Orange County has been hit hard by the mortgage meltdown and many of our innocent animals are being abandoned at high kill shelters. Both our girls (Kona and Emma) were saved on their last day and we've welcomed them into our home.
We also support defeating Proposition Eight and for me it's very personal. A very good friend of mine married recently so they could do it before the vote. They are worried like many other same sex couples that they might not be able to LEGALLY marry after November 4th.
I want to be at that big wedding next June (Gary has already agreed to play their wedding without cost and is going to try to get friends to do the same, it's good to know a musician!) and I want to be there to see them take those vows as Gary and I did ten years ago. I want to bring my daughter to their wedding and show her what love looks like, what it means to share your life with another humanbeing and to bear the burdens that life puts upon us all together, with equality and dignity.
I hate beating our own drum, but right now, I don't know who else is going to and I'm proud of my family and our values. I'm proud of my husband, who just ten years ago refused to go to a same sex ceremony to someone who believes that equality is imperative if we are to move forward as a society. Pleople do grow, they do change and they do learn.
All I ask is that you help me support Gary by donating to his campaign. He's a good man, he's a great human being and I'm so proud to say he is the father of my only child and the person I intend to spend the rest of my life with. It kills me to see him struggle with this campaign, to see him attempt to raise money to pay off his ballot statement, to see him struggle to balance family, his job and his run for office. But that's what we do right? We fight for what we believe in without compromising those things most important to us in our personal lives.
You can donate via Act Blue or send a Check!. If you send me your address, I will even send you a contribution envelope with postage paid.
Fortunately, no one was in the office when the violence occurred. The Democratic Headquarters is continuing to work. No arrests have been made yet.
Obama's -1 from yesterday, but he still holds a solid lead. And overall, today's four tracker (Research 2000, Rasmussen, Diageo-Hotline, and Gallup) mean average shows Obama +8.5%, up 0.5% from yesterday. And when we add Reuters-Zogby and GWU Battleground into the mix, Obama has a +8.17% average lead. Overall, today looks like another strong day for Democrats. :-)
I hate saying this, but at this point I HAVE NO RESPECT WHATSOEVER LEFT FOR JOHN McBUSH. He's running the sleaziest, dirtiest, most spiteful, and all around most disgusting campaign in American history! I hope his campaign goes down in flames on November 4, and I hope he'll rediscover enough decency in 2010 to not run for reelection to the Senate. McBush has gone beyond the worst that either Nixon or McCarthy could have imagined, and it's time for him to stop injecting such toxic hatred into American politics.
Joe Klein sums up the problem that many people are talking about today:
I'm beginning to worry about the level of craziness on the Republican side, the over-the-top, stampede-the-crowd statements by everyone from McCain on down, the vehemence of the crowds that McCain and Palin are drawing with people shouting "Kill him" and "He's a terrorist" and "Off with his head."David Gergen noted last evening:
One of the most striking things we've seen in the last few day, we have seen it at the Palin rallies and we saw it at the McCain rally today . . . . There is a free-floating sort of whipping-around anger that could really lead to some violence. And I think we're not far from that.The New York Times several days ago, commenting on this phenomenon, plead with Senator McCain:
Mr. McCain and his team can come up with a better answer to that problem than inciting more division, anger and hatred.Josh Marshall comments this morning:
This is not a laughing matter.Though he hints darkly at the unspeakable, Andrew Sullivan pulls few punches and comes very close to expressing a fear that has begun to lurk in many hearts in recent days:
This is a moment of maximal physical danger for the young Democratic nominee. And McCain is playing with fire. If he really wants to put country first, he will attack Obama on his policies - not on these inflammatory, personal, creepy grounds. This is getting close to the atmosphere stoked by the Israeli far right before the assassination of Rabin.Yes, Senator McCain, for God's sake, just stop it.
For God's sake, McCain, stop it. For once in this campaign, put your country first.
The numbers yesterday were 48-44. One note on the Zogby numbers: Jerome Armstrong at MyDD has access to the internals, and he observes that Zogby "weights party ID by 38% Democratic, 36% Republican and 26% Independent." I think the Democratic numbers may be correct, but I am willing to bet the Republican numbers are a little high, which makes the independent numbers a little low. Given that Obama leads among Democrats and independents, my wild guess is that a readjustment of Zogby's numbers would give us something more like what we have been seeing in Gallup and R2K.
Meanwhile, Battleground/GWU sees McCain beginning to tank. Its numbers this morning look a little more like the R2K numbers:
McCain two points below 40 is an astonishing finding.
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 40%
And even better, Open Left has the early numbers for two more trackers!
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 45%
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 41%
Rasmussen shows a stable race while both Research 2000 & Diageo-Hotline show Obama gaining. Let's see what Gallup shows, but in the mean time it looks like Obama's post-debate jump continues. :-)
This isn't about intelligence. It isn't about national security. It's sadism. Treating human beings this way is simply evil.I recall the long and drawn out process that Sullivan undertook in 2000 to decide to vote for George Bush when all along, we knew that was where Sullivan was headed and would land; he did not disappoint us: he voted for Bush. There were those among us who recognized that Bush was a crippled soul unfit for the presidency, and we warned our fellow Americans that this was the case. They derided us as deluded, but they now know what then we knew, that Bush was not equal to the presidency.
My fellow prisoners, be assured that we are sounding the warning again. John McCain must not become president.
The New York Times is reporting that Sarah Palin, her husband, and her office contacted the Alaskan Commissioner of Police more than three dozen times in the space of 19 months in their effort to have Palin's former brother-in-law Michael Whooten fired. The article observes that the commissioner thought the Palins were obsessed with Whooten.
Governor Palin is under investigation because she removed the commissioner from office. Clearly, using the power of the governor's office to prosecute a personal vendetta is a violation of the public trust. We are awaiting the report of the investigation into the matter. Since Palin's nomination as vice president, the national Republicans have sought to quash the investigation, but the Alaskan Supreme Court yesterday cleared the matter to move forward.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
It's time for us to pony up & show our support for our Democrats! Let's finish off the Rethuglican Era once & for all. It's time for some real change. :-)
McCain now says he's bringing up Ayers to get answers to the questions that Hillary supposedly said "should come up". However, he refuses to state the fact that Hillary only mentioned Ayers & Weather Underground ONCE... During a primary debate, when she only said that the issue MAY come up again during the general election. That's all.
In fact, Hillary Clinton spokesperson Kathleen Strand had this to say:
As Hillary Clinton has criss-crossed the country for Barack Obama, she has said to anyone who will listen that we can't trust John McCain and the Republicans to fix this economy and turn our country around. Funny, John McCain isn't using those words.How very true! If the best McBush can do to explain why his campaign is resorting to such disgusting attacks is to try to drag Hillary into the mud, then they're goners. Stick a fork in him, McBush is toast. ;-)
From Talking Points Memo:
The Alaska Supreme Court has rejected the effort by Republican legislators to quash the Trooper-Gate investigation, affirming the decision of a lower court last week.
Nero fiddles while Rome burns.
On a day when the Dow has collapsed to below 8,600, what does John McCain do? He pursues questions of the irrelevant, the tangential, and the inconsequential. We are in economic meltdown, and McCain, typically out-of-touch today as yesterday and tomorrow, is obsessed with William Ayers.
John McCain, let me give you a little advice: why don't you just go home to Arizona and take that well-deserved rest you need? It's time to concede the election and leave your distressed fellow
If this poll is correct, it's one sign of how deeply McCain in tanking across the United States. According to the poll, McCain leads Republicans by 79% to 10%, but Obama's lead comes from his strength among Democrats (76-20) and Independents (50-38).
Men in West Virginia now are almost as likely to support Obama as they are to support McCain (McCain 49, Obama 46), and Obama shows real strength among women in Virginia (Obama 54, McCain 36). Obama leads among voters above and below 50.
The poll was taken October 4-8, 2008. It included 600 likely voters and had a margin of error: ± 4 percentage points.
Essentially, it's unchanged from yesterday. Still, it would be nice to see what just yesterday's numbers look like. But hey, I'm happy. The four poll (Research 2000, Rasmussen, Diageo-Hotline, & Gallup) mean average shows Obama +8, up a full point from the four poll mean average of Obama +7 yesterday! :-)
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 43%
This is the largest lead ever recorded for Obama by PPP in Virginia. Obama's narrowing McCain's lead with white voters while also expanding his lead in Northern Virginia and taking a commanding lead among those voters most concerned about the economic crisis. If these numbers hold, Obama's in a great position to turn The Old Dominion blue! :-)
Now take the closer weighting into consideration as I show you today's numbers (check the web site at 9:00 AM PT when the numbers officially go public)...
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 41%
That's one hell of a bounce in one day! Obama's gone from a near-tie to 6% ahead! Obviously, the debate helped.
I just wonder now if the folks at Diageo-Hotline regret reweighting their poll to include more Republicans. Perhaps they thought their numbers leaned too Democratic, but they forgot that this is a Democratic year with a strong Democratic candidate. Sure, I guess anything can happen in the next 26 days. But absent another "October Surprise" that's unlike all the other surprises we've had this campaign season, I'm starting to think the other 3 major trackers (Research 2000, Rasmussen, & Gallup) are onto something here. ;-)
Rasmussen has the race one point tighter than it was yesterday and three points points tighter than it was two days ago:
On Tuesday, Rasmussen saw the race at 52-44; yesterday, he saw it 51-45. It seems that Rasmussen sees the changes as probably statistical noise, for he observes:
The race remains quite stable--for the past fourteen days, Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% every day while McCain has been at 44% of 45%.Battleground/GWU also sees Obama declining one point over yesterday and McCain staying steady at 45:
Now polls that seem to suggest an improvement in Obama's position over McCain:
Reuters/Zogby reports the race is a couple points wider than it reported yesterday. The numbers yesterday suggested a two-point spread at Obama 47, McCain 45. Today, the numbers suggest a four-point spread:
The three day numbers from Research 2000/Daily are actually in the same place they were yesterday, but I'll make a note about the internals in a second:
DemFromCT at dkos observes about the internals that Obama had a very good night of polling last evening:
On successive days in the R2K poll, Obama was up +9 Mon, +8 Tues and +12 Wed.Though the three day numbers have a standard error of +/-3.0, the numbers from any one day of the three day rolling total is +/-5.1%.
Also, Georgia & West Virginia were shifted from Solid Republican to Likely Republican while Indiana was moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. And finally, New Mexico was moved from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic while Iowa was moved from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic.
OK, so what does this all mean? This means the electoral map is firming up for Barack Obama! If the map holds up on November 4, Obama wins. Even if all the Toss-up States go to McCain, Obama still wins. But more likely, Obama will pick off some of the Toss-up States & expand his lead.
So what can we do between now and election day? Work it! Let's keep working our @*ses off and MAKE VICTORY HAPPEN! :-)
Michelle says that it's safe to say she's an Obama mama. Here is the second part of the interview:
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Why? Let's see. Florida is second only to Nevada in forecloures. Florida is suffering from job losses due to the weak real estate market and sluggish tourism. At this point, I think Florida is in that second tier of "Red States" (along with Nevada & Colorado) almost as likely as Iowa, New Mexico, and Virginia to turn blue this fall.
So why shouldn't Obama double down in Florida? If he wins Florida, he wins the election hands down! Oh yes, and we have a number of competitive Congressional races in The Sunshine State... So why not also maximize coattails in electing as many Democrats as possible? This is a win-win situation that can really solidify our chance of taking back The White House AND increasing our Congressional majority! :-)
WRONG! Actually, McCain's plan is nothing like Hillary Clinton's! You see, Hillary's plan is for the federal government to buy bad loans at market value, letting the lenders take the hit, and helping the struggling homeowners keep their homes on the new and more affordable credit terms. McCain, on the other hand, simply wants to pass another "Bailout Bill" giving $100 billion of our tax dollars to the very mortgage lenders that made the bad loans in the first place! Now how is the McBush Big Lender Bailout like Hillary's plan to actually send the help to the homeowners who need it? It isn't!
Cheese louise, is McCain just asking for defeat now?! When we the people are sick and tired of being robbed so the oligarchs can continue living their lavish lifestyles and continue making bad investments that we then have to bail them out on AGAIN, McCain is proposing that we do even MORE of the same? He really has become McBush now. I wonder when he'll start referring to himself as "The Decider".
BTD said it best today...
"No way, no how, no more corporate giveaways McCain."
Across this country, this is the agenda I have set before my fellow prisoners and the same standards of clarity and candor must now be applied to my opponent.
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 40%
Nader (Ind.) 3%
Barr (Lib.) 1%
In their last poll, Obama had a 46-42 lead. So what's different? The economy is now far & ahead Issue #1, and Obama is preferred over McCain on the economy by a 52-37 margin.
If this trend continues, we'll have good reason to keep working as hard as possible... We'll be working hard for a BIG victory! :-)
They have a great new video just out. They are asking you to send it to all of your friends and ask them to pass it along. The title of the film is, "John McCain's Rage is a National Security Concern."
Psssst. Do something.
Meanwhile, Gallup Daily is reporting an Obama lead as expansive as the one we have been seeing in Research 2000/Daily Kos. Though R2K today reported a 10-point Obama lead, Gallup is reporting an eleven point lead:
Nate Silver at 538.com observes, "The Gallup and Rasmussen polls have by far the largest sample sizes, and so tend to get the most emphasis in the model." So to recap:
Gallup Obama, +11
R2K Obama, +10
Rasmussen Obama, +6
Diageo Hotline Obama, +1
Barack Obama, meanwhile, was able to discuss today's foreign policy challenges in places like Pakistan and Iran. He was able to offer a forward thinking energy policy that actually solves our long term problems. He stated well the need for an up-to-date regulatory system that deals with today's financial sector. Basically, Obama offered a coherent vision of the future.
That's the difference in this election. Barack Obama is thinking about the future while John McCain is stuck in the past. Obama's policy proposals move us forward to a better 2020 while McCain's campaign is trying to relive battles from 2000. One candidate is planning ahead while the other always seems to be looking back.
This leaves us with a clear choice. Do we want a President that will take us to a better future? Or one who will keep us stuck in the past?
The range yesterday was 52-44, so there was a slight narrowing in the race, the same as we see in the Research 2000/Daily Kos numbers:
Yesterday's numbers were 52-41. Last night's numbers do not reflect perspectives on the debate. We'll have to wait till Saturday before we have a complete sense of whether the debate moved anyone to one camp or the other.
McCain sounded like a legislator, Obama like a president.There is an old saying that you can't teach an old dog new tricks. At 72, John McCain has spent more than a third of his long life in Congress. He thinks like a legislator. He talks like a legislator. He may be a leader of a certain sort, but it isn't executive leadership. The kind of leadership to which he aspires may be worthy, but he doesn't think like a president. He sees governance as an aisle that divides the Senate floor, one that requires an arm to reach across. He seems incapable of the expansive big-picture thinking required to set the tone that leads a nation; try as McCain's aides might to get him to avoid the subject in a debate, he is obsessed with the nuts and bolts of earmarks. The Senate has an aisle, and it is the place to vote earmarks up and down; presidents in our system work in a place that has no aisle and do not have line-by-line authority to veto earmarks.
McCain may be senatorial, but he is not presidential. Obama is the candidate with the expansive perspective inherent in presidential leadership. A vote for Barack Obama is not just a vote to make Barack Obama president but also a vote to keep John McCain in the Senate where he belongs.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Who won the debate?
Who can better on Iraq?
Who can better handle terrorism?
Who can better handle the economy?
Who can better handle the financial crisis?
What's your opinion of John McCain?
(no change from the first debate)
What's your opinion of Barack Obama?
(Obama is +4 on favorable and -4 on unfavorable!)
My take: Obama clearly won tonight, and CNN's insta-poll confirms that! Obama was again a calm & reassuring voice on the financial crisis while McCain still seemed erratic & off-balance. Also, McCain doesn't do a good job of hiding his disdain for Obama. Do voters really want another President who turns friends into enemies?
McCain needed a game-changer in his favor. And frankly speaking, he didn't get it tonight. If anything, tonight's debate may very well seal the deal for Obama.
No handshake. Rude.
So McBush really wants to talk about terrorists? Does he really want to talk about his own involvement in a radical right haven for Nazi sympathizers and Central American death squads??!! Does McBush want to relive that not-so-distant history?
Sarah Palin accuses Barack Obama, for his harmless and casual association with William Ayers of palling around with terrorists. But her association with the Alaskan Independence Party is in no way casual:
Campaign Manager David Plouffe gives a strategy update from debate prep in North Carolina. Volunteer to support Barack Obama in the four days before the election at barackobama.com.
Yes, that's right... Iran! The very same Iran that McBush wants to "bomb, bomb, bomb" is the Iran that sponsored the founder of the Alaska Independence Party to go to the opening of the United Nations General Assembly in 1993 to denounce the US. Hmmm, Alaska Independence Party... Isn't that the same party Todd Palin has been a long-time member of and the same party that Sarah Palin "welcomed" JUST THIS YEAR??!!
So if McBush & Failin' want to talk about "terrorist ties", why don't they start out with THEIR OWN?
Mason-Dixon of Florida:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 46%
Public Policy Polling of Ohio:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 43%
Muhlenberg of Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 38%
Research 2000 of Nevada:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 43%
Survey USA of Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 40%
Survey USA of Wisconsin
Obama (D) 52
McCain (R) 42
The bad news: I see none here!
The good news: As we discussed in DC's post, Obama is starting to pull away in Nevada. However, it's not limited to The Silver State! With the exception of Mason-Dixon's new Florida poll (which now looks different from the other FL polls because they all show Obama farther ahead!), everything else here looks fantastic! McCain's chances in Pennsylvania continue to dim while Obama takes the lead in Ohio. Obama's doing a terrific job swinging the swing states our way, and hopefully the debate tonight will only help us more.
Conclusion: This map looks like a dream come true for Democrats. So we can make it real? Yes! Keep donating, keep walking, keep calling! We're so close now... We can do it! :-)
The president of PPP observed:
The polls are getting worse and worse for John McCain. There is virtually no way he can win the Presidency without Ohio but he is now trailing outside the margin of error here in several polls, and time is running away from him with the election less than a month away.
Verdict: Obama's account of the scandal, which involved McCain's efforts to degregulate banking attached to a financial crisis much the same as the one we see today, is spot-on.
What's that... DCDemocrat is more fun? Whatever! hehe ;-)
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 42%
This is an all-time high for Obama in Gallup Daily, just like Obama hitting an all-time high of 52-44 in the Rasmussen Tracker today. All Obama needs to do is perform well in tonight's debate and continue connecting with the voters on the issues that matter... And he wins! :-)
Obama previously had a narrow four point lead, but the economic crisis and the vice presidential debate have propelled him to a commanding 14-point lead:
The prior margin was Obama 47 to McCain 43.
Palin's routine attacks on the media have begun to spill into ugliness. In Clearwater, arriving reporters were greeted with shouts and taunts by the crowd of about 3,000. Palin then went on to blame Katie Couric's questions for her "less-than-successful interview with kinda mainstream media." At that, Palin supporters turned on reporters in the press area, waving thunder sticks and shouting abuse. Others hurled obscenities at a camera crew. One Palin supporter shouted a racial epithet at an African American sound man for a network and told him, "Sit down, boy."
For the sake of our nation's well being, we can NOT allow this hate to win! If the McCain-Palin GOP operation intends to resort to this kind of ugly racism to win, then they don't deserve to win. America is better than this.
Observed Fox 28 in South Bend:
McCain hasn't visited the state since July 1st. Obama plans to visit Indianapolis on Wednesday, his sixth trip to Indiana since the May primary.Time/CNN
Rasmussen sees the race as essentially frozen for nearly the last two weeks. He observes:
This is the second straight day that Obama has led by eight percentage points, his largest lead of the year. For the past twelve days, Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45% every day.Research 2000/Daily Kos likewise essentially sees the race as static, with Obama where he has been for the prior three days and McCain rising one point from 40 yesterday to 41 today:
According to these two polls, it's an eight to 11 point race at the moment, and the data that is coming from state-level polls seems to support such a conclusion.
John McCain had a rally:
Ask yourself which one of these men behaves presidential and which one of these men acts like a cranky old man temperamentally unfit to be president.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Talk about whatever. ;-)
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 47%
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 47%
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 45%
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 45%
The bad news: Ohio??!! McCain's still slightly ahead in Ohio? Rasmussen says so, but they contradict just about all other pollsters that have recently shown Obama's numbers rising in The Buckeye State. So is Ras right and everyone else wrong? I don't know, so let's wait and see.
The good news: At this point, Obama's fortunes don't lie with Ohio alone! After all, Ras is yet another pollster showing Obama up by a healthy margin in Florida! If Obama can secure Florida, then it's truly game over... We win! Also, Obama has rebuilt a lead in Colorado while also taking the lead in Missouri. If Obama wins all these states and Virginia, then we're in for a sea of BLUE on November 4!
Conclusion: Now's a good time to give Obama an extra lift up if you're in Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Missouri, or Ohio! And no matter where you are, now is the perfect time to give some $$$ to local parties and Congressional candidates in these states. Let's make sure we maximize on a Big Blue Wave! :-)
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 43%
Yet another national poll, yet another growing Obama lead. Again, this is NOT where the GOP ticket wants to be in the final month before the election. This IS, however, where Democrats want to be!
We can't let ourselves be distracted by the GOP low-blow smears! Yes, fight the smears... But also stay focused on what matters. Keep talking about Obama's plan to fix the economy, Obama's commitment to working class families, and Obama's desire to make our nation stronger.
We're almost there... Keep up the good work! :-)
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 45%
So why are we seeing Barack Obama pull away to a larger lead clearly outside the margin of error? CNN says it's mainly because of three major factors:
1. The economy is Issue #1, and Obama is preffered over McCain on the economy by a full 18%!
2. Sarah Palin's popularity is plummeting, and McCain's "Hail Mary" attempt has turned into a Debbie Downer dragging his numbers down as well.
3. McCain is now seen more than ever as the exact same as Bush.
But can McCain recover enough to give us a run for our money (to flee the country) in the next month? Possibly... Politics can be unpredictable at times. But at this point, attitudes are hardening and decisions are already being made. And with Obama now at a 50%+ majority in many of the polls with the remaining polls showing Obama well ahead in the high 40s, the Republicans are not in a good position in the final stretch of the 2008 Election.
If Obama stays strong, keeps debating well, and continues to speak to our concerns, we'll win. :-)
Democracy Corps of Ohio:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 43%
Public Policy Polling of North Carolina:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 44%
The bad news: Can't find any here!
The good news: Obama +6 in BOTH Ohio AND North Carolina?! Whoa! We have more polls confirming an Obama lead in both crucial swing states. Obama continues to expand his electoral vote lead as he offers real solutions on the economic crisis while McCain rummages through the bottom of the barrel to toss everything INCLUDING the kitchen sink at Obama.
Conclusion: Barack Obama is now not only pulling away in the national polls, but with the electoral map as well! Obama now stands a good chance of winning in an electoral landslide. We just need to keep up the good work, and the Obama campaign needs to stay on the offense and keep offering real solutions on the economy... And we'll win BIG!! :-)
Wow, and I thought McCain was "The National Security Candidate"! So why is it that McCain's campaign is stealing foreign policy & national security ideas from Barack Obama? Score another point for Republican hypocrisy!
All the resources Americans need to understand what a monumental failure in judgment means to John McCain only requires they go to this Keating Economics.
Suffolk University of Virginia:
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 39%
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 43%
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 40%
The bad news: Where?
The good news: Obama is now building strong leads in two states that looked like pure toss-ups only days ago! If Obama can take these two states and 17 electoral votes off the table for McCain, then it's realm game over for Election 2008! Obama now looks to have at least 270 EVs either solidly behind him or leaning his way. If he stays this strong he wins!
Conclusion: I hope Barack Obama will knock our socks off at the debate tomorrow night! If he can put away swing states like New Hampshire and Virginia now, then we'll be in awesome shape for November 4! :-)
Yesterday was 48-41. Given the small numbers on any given day, this may be a random fluctuation: the same as Gallup's report of a one-point expansion of the race over from where it stood yesterday:
Yesterday was 50-43. The take away message from the four trackers today is that the race is essentially even with where it stood yesterday.
Now how the hell is that "fiscally responsible"??!!
My dad is on Medicare. He was injured on the job, and he's now disabled. He relies on Medicare to see his doctors and obtain his prescription drugs. Why does John McCain want to hurt my dad so I'll have an even shittier "health" scare plan than I do now??!!
John McCain obviously doesn't have to worry about his health care. His Congressional plan is the best in the nation. But what about us working people? Why doesn't he give damn about us?
Well, John McCain can kiss the "senior vote" and the "health care vote" goodbye!
Question: You not only have had combat experience in Vietnam, but you were also a prisoner of war. When you look at terrorism right now, with people like Osama bin Laden, do you have any reservations about watching strikes like that?
Answer: You could say, Look, is this guy, Laden, really the bad guy that's depicted? Most of us have never heard of him before. And where there is a parallel with Vietnam is: What's plan B? What do we do next? We sent our troops into Vietnam to protect the bases. Lyndon Johnson said, Only to protect the bases. Next thing you know.... Well, we've declared to the terrorists that we're going to strike them wherever they live. That's fine. But what's next? That's where there might be some comparison.
(Emphasis added by me.)
Now yes, this was 1998. However, President Clinton and his National Security team knew Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda were a serious security threat in 1998. In fact, John McCain & his fellow Republicans accused President Clinton of "wagging the dog" to "distract" from the Monica Lewinsky bullsh*t when he tried to take out al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Senator Joe Biden also knew in 1998 that al-Qaeda was a serious security threat, and he was trying to convince his Senate colleagues to see what he was seeing as well. And only four years later, then Illinois State Senator Barack Obama warned us all of what would happen if we were to turn away from fighting al-Qaeda to invade Iraq.
And what did John McCain do this whole time? He joined George W. Bush and the rest of the GOP in dropping the ball on our real fight against real terrorists. No wonder why he still doesn't understand al-Qaeda.
And the GOP really wants us to entrust our security with John McCain?
The Los Angeles Times this morning tells the story of how John McCain's erratic behavior as a young pilot led to a pattern of dangerous mishaps, including three crashes in his early career. The Los Angeles Times indicates that McCain might have avoided his vaunted stint as a POW if he had not flown recklessly in the skies over North Vietnam:
Three months later, McCain was on his 23rd bombing mission over North Vietnam when a surface-to-air missile struck his A-4 attack jet. He was flying 3,000 feet above Hanoi.John McCain is incautious. He makes snap judgments that often end in disaster. Even in this campaign, we have seen him select a completely unqualified and morally-compromised vice presidential pick and then precipitously insert himself into the resolution of the financial crisis.
A then-secret report issued in 1967 by McCain's squadron said the aviators had learned to stay at an altitude of 4,000 to 10,000 feet in heavy surface-to-air missile environments and look for approaching missiles.
John McCain is erratic. His judgment is suspect. There is a trail of evidence that stretches back across decade that suggests his temperament makes him unfit to serve as president.
Perhaps even better is Rasmussen's comment:
This is the highest level of support ever recorded for Obama and is his largest lead of the year. It also continues a remarkable twenty-five days in a row where the Democrat’s support has never declined by even a single point.Meanwhile, Research 2000/Daily Kos reports the race looks like this:
Comments dkos poll guru DemFromCT:
This is not a good year to be a Republican.We at C4O concur.
Sarah was in Omaha last evening, and she gave a little speech there, you betcha. Here is what Sarah LSS had to say:
The pundits today on TV—one of them was saying, check out the vice president’s schedule, check out where she’s going — she’s going to Nebraska. But the pundit was saying the only reason she’d be going there is ‘cause they’re scared, so they gotta go there and shore up votes. And I so wanted to reach into that TV and say no, I’m going to Nebraska because I want to go to Nebraska.Well, let's deconstruct this passage just a little. Never mind that to date a majority of electors have not chosen her to be vice president, and that even if they had, she would be vice president-elect, Sarah apparently already fancies herself to the the Vice President, doggoneit. I mean, she actually calls herself, "the vice president." Beyond that stunning plummet into the depths of hubris, she denies she was in Omaha for strategic purposes; rather, she was there because of her deep desire to take in the sights. Now given that she wasted a day campaigning in Dark Blue California, and given her wildly heralded desire to save Michigan for McCain after McCain threw in the towel there, maybe Sarah LSS actually was telling the truth, maybe the inchoate McCain campaign just sends Palin to whatever travel destination suits her fancy. Who am I to try and decipher the McCain campaign's strategy, if there is one?
John McCain seems to have a history of hanging out with the wrong crowd. Think about it. His chief economic adviser, Phil "Don't Have a Mental Recession About My Deregulation Screwing You Over, You Nation of Whiners!" Gramm. His campaign manager, Rick "The Corporate Lobbyist" Davis. In fact, his entire campaign run by corporate lobbyists! And how can we forget his running mate, Sarah Palin, and her cynically hypocritical "clean state house" in Alaska full of corruption and secrecy?
So really, we need to ask the question. Has McCain learned the lessons from The Keating Five? Well, has he?
Our economy is in peril. We need a President who will be ready & able to do what's necessary to make our economy work for working people again. We can't afford another President who puts the wants of his corporate buddies above the needs of working families.
So why should we take a serious risk with John McCain?
Sunday, October 5, 2008
She says she got the quote from Clinton Secretary of State Madeleine Albright on a Starbucks coffee cup. But as we have come to expect from Sarah, she lied about the quote on the coffee cup.
Karl Rove has published an updated map of the Electoral College which shows Obama over McCain in the Electoral College 273 to 163. His map shows 102 electoral votes in toss-up states. Of course, it take 270 electoral votes to become president.
Rove simply has joined the chorus. 3 Blue Dudes daily updates its list of prognostications from 84 web sites across the Internet; currently 81 sites see an Obama lead; two show a tie; and none predict a McCain lead. The eleven sites that updated their data yesterday show Obama with an average of 308 electoral votes. Those same eleven sites see McCain with an average of 196 electoral votes. Five web sites among those eleven include toss-up states; there was an average of 74 electoral votes among the toss-up states yesterday.
Denver Post-Mason Dixon of Colorado:
Obama (D) 44%
McCain (R) 44%
Columbus Dispatch of Ohio:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 42%
Minneapolis Star-Tribune of Minnesota:
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 37%
The bad news: Colorado. We can't sugar-coat this too much. This is the third consecutive poll showing Colorado at a tie or near-tie. So obviously, we have more work to do in The Centennial State. But on the other hand Mason-Dixon has consistently shown better numbers for McCain in the Western States than other pollsters, so we may have to wait & see before we decide just how close the race in Colorado is.
The good news: Ohio & Minnesota... Whoa!! Less than a month ago, McCain was growing his lead in Ohio while Obama's lead in Minnesota was shrinking to a near-tie. But now, Obama has strong leads in both states! With the economy becoming Issue #1 in so many of these Midwestern States, voters looking for real help are turning to Barack Obama.
Conclusion: Obama now looks to hold all the Kerry 2004/Gore 2000 states, meaning all the Blue States from both years + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire. That makes 264 electoral votes (EVs). All we need now are 6 more EVs.
And now, I see 5 plausible paths for Obama to take to get to 270+ EVs:
1. Gore-Kerry Blue States + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + Florida (291 EVs)
2. Gore-Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + Colorado + Nevada (278 EVs)
3. Gore-Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + Ohio (284 EVs)
4. Gore-Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + Virginia (277 EVs)
5. Gore-Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + North Carolina (279 EVs)
At this point, Obama has many roads to 270 while McCain's one path continues to narrow... This is right where we want to be just one month before the election! :-)
That's a seven-point spread. Rasmussen had this interesting and pithy analysis based upon his analysis of persuadable voters:
One way of understanding the difficult challenge now facing McCain is to consider the relatively small group of persuadable voters who could still change their mind. The Republican hopeful would have to win nearly 80% of those votes to pull ahead in the race. That’s especially challenging because most of those voters are currently leaning towards Obama. In other words, while the race is not over, McCain needs a significant--game-changing—event to win the White House. Simply doing what he’s been doing a little better will not be enough.Moreover, as I posted in the immediately prior post, there is no way to guarantee that a major event will work in McCain's favor; game-changing events have tended in this race to work in Obama's favor.
Diageo Hotline views the race essentially even with where it stood yesterday:
That's a seven point spread.
Research 2000/Daily Kos see the race even with where it was yesterday:
DemFromCT observes about the interals:
On successive days in the R2K poll, Obama was up +12 Thurs, +13 Fri and +13 Sat (MoE +/- 5.1 for individual days.)One more +13 days, and either Obama will rise to 53% in this poll, or McCain will fall below 40.