Saturday, November 8, 2008

Where We Stand Now

Hey, everyone! I justed wanted to update you on where we stand electorally. I don't think you'll want to miss this! :-D

- Barack Obama looks to win the popular vote 52.4% to 46.1% and the electoral vote 365-173. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico have all flipped from red to blue. No state went from blue to red. Missouri currently looks to be going VERY narrowly for McCain, but as provisional votes are still being counted and a recount quite likely to happen, there's still a possibility Obama may win here as well.

- Democrats look to pick up at least six more Senate seats with three more seats still too close to call. Graduated All-Star Mark Udall won in Colorado while All-Stars Jeff Merkley in Oregon, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, and Kay Hagan in North Carolina all won & are headed to the Senate. Meanwhile, C4O All-Star Jim Martin in Georgia is going to a run-off election next month as C4O Rising Star Al Franken in Minnesota may still win as provisional votes are being counted and a mandatory recount looms ahead.

- In the House, Democrats have so far gained a net twenty seats with six seats still too close to call. C4O All-Stars Dina Titus (NV-03), Martin Heinrich (NM-01), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), John Boccieri (OH-16), Debbie Halvorson (IL-11), Gary Peters (MI-09), and Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) have all won & are on their way to Capitol Hill. Meanwhile, C4O Rising Stars Glenn Nye (VA-02) and Eric Massa (NY-29) have also won and are both on their way to Congress. So far, it's still too close to call for C4O All-Stars Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15) & Charlie Brown (CA-04) as provisional ballots and likely recounts may still change the outcome.

So are you excited about the change that's coming to Washington? I know I am! So congrats, everyone! WE WON! :-D


Reliving Election Night

Jed L at Daily Kos reminds us what a great night it was:

Friday, November 7, 2008

The Diva Drama Continues

The comedy just doesn't end. Hilarious! And this is who so many wacko fundie wingnuts want to be the Rethuglican Presidential Nominee in 2012?

If only more in the GOP really knew how to say "Thanks, but no thanks." But hey, I guess they'd rather give us the the comical gift that keeps on giving! :-D

Enough of the Loserman

Really. It's time for Democrats to stop appeasing him. Either he can take whatever Harry Reid offers or he can become completely irrelevant.

CA-44, Are you going to let Republicans steal this one?

Bill Hedrick did this without the help of the DCCC or the DNC and was outspent by Calvert (painfully corrupt Republican).

Calvert's team has apparently been having private conversations with the registrar's office in Riverside County, which was the last county in California to report its election results. There were numerous reports from Democratic Party officials, voters and even a poll worker in Riverside County that voters were "forced to use provisional ballots" or "denied ballots entirely" on Tuesday.


Bill Hedrick needs our help! He is only 4,000 votes away from being the second Democratic Congressperson in Orange County, CA and there are thousands of ballots left to count.

I just received this email from the South Orange County Democratic Club President, Gila Jones:

I've long been saying that the most competitive partisan race in Orange County was in the 44th Congressional District where Democrat Bill Hedrick faced corrupt Republican Ken Calvert last week.

Provisional, paper, and late absentee ballots -- 100,000 of them -- are still being counted, and Calvert leads Hedrick by only about 4000 votes.

Please do not let Calvert steal this election! Republican lawyers have descended on Riverside and are working around the clock to try to disqualify as many ballots as possible. Bill Hedrick has retained a top-notch election lawyer to help him, but he needs money to help pay the lawyer's fee.

Please, please, do NOT allow a Florida-style debacle right here in Orange County. Donate here:

The local and national media are taking notice. One of the biggest stories of the election is taking place right here in Orange County. Please, make your donation to be sure Bill's supporters aren't disenfranchised the way Al Gore's were in Florida 8 years ago.

Here are some of the printed and online reports:

Please, donate today. You are the margin of victory, and Bill Hedrick needs whatever financial support you can spare to prevent this election being stolen.

Please donate if you can, I just gave $25 myself. This is the best chance the OC has to add another Democrat to our ranks in Congress (with Loretta Sanchez) and this could also help turn the OC blue. But it's also another vote for Barack Obama when he needs help passing his very important legislation.

I know we're all tapped out, but it's worth it. I met Bill Hedrick on the Fourth of July and was impressed with him immediately. He was easy to talk to, amazingly knowledgeable and he's a good Democrat.

Some background...

A native of Los Angeles, Bill was born in 1952. The son of a Teamster and a teacher, both from the South, he absorbed the lessons of hard work, common sense, and tolerance modeled by his parents. After church, Sunday dinner table conversation always centered around current events, politics in general, and the Democratic Party. Through annual summer visits to east Texas, he learned first-hand the value of tradition, but also the human cost of segregation and poverty. The contrast between middle class Los Angeles and the deep poverty of the rural South left an indelible impression on him and a desire to change the world one student at a time.

A product of public schools, Bill received his BA in Social Science and MA in Education from CSULA. He began teaching elementary school in Hollywood in 1974, and has spent 34 years in education in Southern California, the last eight years serving as president of the Rialto Education Association, an NEA/AFL-CIO affiliate. Bill's particular area of expertise has been working with English language learners, and early in his career, he traveled to Mexico to learn Spanish to better communicate with his students and their parents.

In November 1988, Bill was elected to the Board of Education of the 51,000 student Corona-Norco Unified School District. He has served four terms as president of the Board, representing 250,000 residents of the 44th district, and deals with an annual budget in excess of $400,000,000.

Upon election he immediately set to work to expand choices for students and families. In doing so, he was instrumental in the adoption and/or expansion of AVID (Advancement Via Individual Determination), IB (International Baccalaureate), Dual Immersion (English-Spanish), JROTC (Navy, Air Force), and a host of other options to provide support for students.

Student safety is foremost for Bill. In the wake of a tragic off-campus incident charged with racial overtones, he championed district efforts to develop a comprehension response, including tolerance education, enhanced safety measures, and a comprehensive district plan that values diversity.

Bill demanded an aggressive response from the District to news that toxic vapors were present at a district high school, most likely caused by a contaminated ground water plume. He doggedly pursued remediating despite strong opposition, a fight that continues to this day. He has also worked to create a "green" high school to be uniquely situated in a recovered quarry.

Bill and his wife of 28 years, Beth, have lived in Corona since 1981, and have five children. Their son Adam, a soldier with the 3rd ID, is currently serving a second Iraqi deployment east of Baghdad. Son Jesse served in Baquba with the 1st ID before suffering a near-fatal "heat event," while his wife, Evelyn, was an army convoy driver in Baghdad, also serving a second tour. Sarah is an apprentice electrician, and Zach and Rebekkah are students.

and his amazing commercial!

Bill Hedrick on Challenges Facing Working Families

Fun Friday Open Thread

So what are you most excited about? Go ahead and talk about it with us. It's Friday... AND WE WON! :-D

Thursday, November 6, 2008

How The West Was Won... And Lost


This week has been nothing short of amazing! Barack Obama will be our next President. More and better Democrats will be going to Congress. The electoral map has undergone a major blue shift.

So why has this whole experience been bittersweet at best for me? Well, all is not well in my own home state. So what can we celebrate and what must we fix? Let me share with you the story of this election from behind the scenes.


First off, let's start with the bad news. We lost in California. But wait, you ask, didn't Obama win by about 24%? Isn't that good? Of course it is, and that isn't the problem.

The problem in California is that Barack Obama had hardly any coattails here. Look at how Prop 8, the marriage ban, may end up having to be stopped at the courts (again, hopefully). Look at how, barring the results in CA-44 & CA-04 changing in the provisional vote count, we have not gained any new Congressional seats. Look at how we're still short of a 2/3 supermajority in both houses of the state legislature.

Simply put, we failed our mission in The Golden State. There were hundreds of thousands of "undervotes" here, meaning that people voted Obama for President but did NOT continue downballot to vote on Congress, the initiatives, and local races. This is nothing short of tragic, and there's no excuse for the nation's biggest Blue State to still show so much red! Because of the inept and disastrous "leadership" of the state party, the refusal of the DCCC to invest in real races like CA-44 & CA-46, and the horribly gawd-awful "leadership" by The Task Force & Equality California on the No on 8 campaign & their failure to have a real ground game, we missed the opportunity to turn the Obama victory into a progressive victory in California.




Now contrast what happened in California on Tuesday to what happened in Nevada on the same day. While one state didn't change much, the other state next door underwent a massive transformation! Like Mountain West neighbors New Mexico & Colorado, Nevada is now officially a Blue State! And not just that, but Democrats now have a broad and clear mandate for progressive change.

Progressive Democrat Dina Titus was elected to Congress in a "swing district" that Bush won in 2004. Democrats now control both houses in the state legislature for the first time since 1991, including a 2/3 supermajority in the Assembly. Voters approved a good initiative that will actually help Nevada fully fund its schools. And of course, Barack Obama won the ex-Red State by a whopping 12%, including an 18% win in Clark County (Las Vegas Metro) and wins in the formerly Republican Carson City & Washoe (Reno) Counties!

So why were the results in Nevada so dramatically different? Let's see, Harry Reid and the state party leaders actually began early in registering more Democrats and building an aggressive field operation while the GOP was power drunk and asleep at the wheel. The Obama campaign and the state party were effective in coordinating with the Dina Titus campaign, the Jill Derby campaign up north, and the local campaigns. All the candidates up and down the ballot had a clear and consistent message for change on the economy, energy & environment, education, health care, and so much more. Basically, Democrats worked together on the ground and that's why we won!

So what lessons can we learn from this tale of two states? First off, there's no real substitute for a grassroots door-to-door, face-to-face campaign. Despite the good last-minute ads, they may have been too little & too late to make up for the lack of a ground game for No on 8 in California. Meanwhile in Nevada, no amount of negative attack ads from the Republicans against Dina Titus & Barack Obama could make up for their complete lack of a ground game while we Democrats truly rocked the vote!

Secondly, Nevada Democrats succeeded in translating an Obama victory into a progressive victory while California Democrats were simply lost in translation. Why couldn't we win the 45th & 48th Congressional Districts when Obama carried them? Why couldn't Debbie Cook win in the 46th when Obama carried it? Why were there so many undervotes statewide? Whatever the Nevada Democratic Party did right, the California Democratic Party needs to learn how to do it.

And finally, we should all be of good cheer! The West is ours if we want it! The results across the region prove that where Democrats work, Democrats win. But in places like California where state party leaders grew complacent, we lost out on real opportunities.

So what do we do next? After we're done celebrating, we will go back to work! We have more work to do to keep progress going, so let's do it! :-D



Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Yes, We Did!

Yes, I'm back home now. And yes, I wanted to congratulate all of us for all we did to make victory happen. Thank you so much!

We've lived through a whole lot in these last five months. We've seen all the ups and downs of the campaign. And now, we WON! Thanks to us, we have a Democratic President & a better & stronger Democratic Congress.

So can we all just take a break now? NO! OK, I guess we can take it easy tonight. But starting tomorrow, we have work to do. We have a President-elect to support, a party to continue building, and yes... We have errors to fix. Our victory could have been bigger & better in places like California & Arizona that lacked needed support & infrastructure, but the GOP caught a lucky break when "The Big Blue Wave" forgot to wash ashore when it left Nevada.

So what next? Honestly, we're still figuring out the details. Mainly, I'm thinking we need to remember what we stand for as Democrats, how to fight for our values, and how to keep winning. So please, please stay tuned. We have more to do & more to win!

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

The President of the United States


President-Elect Barack Obama

Halperin goes there.

Dana Bash on CNN

Dana just said that the mood inside the McCain camp is "stoic."

I take Drudge with a grain of salt,

but he reports, "Polls Say Obama Big!"

My experience at the polls

I live in a predominantly African American precinct in Washington, D.C. My plan today was to go to work in the morning, get lunch, and come home to cast my ballot. On my way to work, I drove past my polling place just to see how it was going. The line at 9:00 in the morning stretched out of the building and down the street. I imagine there must have been more than a hundred people waiting on the sidewalk.

I got to my polling place to exercise my own franchise at 1:00. Getting in the building wasn't hard at that hour, but there were probably 60 people in the room. A lot of them, a lot of them were very, very young, 18, 19, 20. It was clear that many people were casting the first ballots of their lives.

Now I am home waiting to hear what happens.


Intrade this morning is predicting that Barack Obama will win 364 electoral votes and John McCain will win 174 electoral votes.

Rasmussen predicts an Obama win

The final Rasmussen poll is out, and it sees Barack Obama by six points:

Obama 52
McCain 46
Others 1
Undecided 1

Rasmussen observes:
Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters cast their ballots early this year and those voters favored Obama by a double-digit margin. Among those who will actually cast their ballots on Tuesday, the candidates are essentially even.

The Closer



There's a reason why Michelle Obama is called "The Closer". I found it out yesterday in North Las Vegas. She knows how to seal the deal!

I was amazed yesterday as I heard from Michelle Obama herself on her own story, Barack's story, their family's common story, and our common story as Americans. Because both she and Barack actually remember where they came from what struggles they endured, they understand the economic problems that all of us are facing. I got that, and so did everyone else in North Las Vegas. We were all fired up & ready to go!

When Michelle Obama finished rallying us up, I quickly moved to the campaign office near the airport to see if I can be a "closer" as well. I was assigned a neighborhood in Silverado Ranch, a fairly Republican suburban area. I was up to the challenge, so I took it!

So I hit the pavement. I took notes from those who already voted early for Barack Obama & Dina Titus. I reminded those that haven't yet voted to vote today. All in all, I was able to reach out to some last-minute voters and remind them just how important today is.

Upon returning to the office, I made a few more calls to Henderson. And after that, I visited my family there. Oh yes, and I did remind them to vote for Obama & Titus today!

Here in Nevada, polls will be open today from 7:00 AM to 7:00 PM PDT. If you can, please make the calls and help me turn out the vote! Now's the time for all of us to be closers. Let's seal the deal and make victory happen today! :-D




Research 2000/Daily Kos

Research 2000/Daily Kos is out this morning with a prediction of an Obama win:

Obama 51
McCain 46

That is a five point margin.

Dkos poll guru DemFromCT observes:
On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +4 Sat, +4 Sun, and +7 Monday (52-45) with a +9 Fri sample rolling off (rounding can take place.)

IBD/TIPP Predicts Obama Victory

IBD/TIPP is out with its final poll of the season. It sees Obama by 7.2 points:

Obama 51.5
McCain 44.3

Notes the pollster about its methodology:
IBD/TIPP’s final results are based on a random nationwide survey of the voting age population, which yielded a sample of 981 likely voters. Polling was conducted November 1st to November 3rd, 2008.

Obama 351, McCain 187

Three Blue Guys have run a database of electoral college projections. Forty-five prognosticators have given their final projections. I averaged the 45 Obama projections and the 45 McCain projections, and this is the average of how people see it:

Obama 351
McCain 187

All prognosticators among the 45 foresaw an Obama win.

Obama's numbers range from a low of 286 to a high of 396. The most common projection was 353. Only four prognosticators among the 45 saw Obama's electoral vote count below 300; 41 projected Obama at greater than 300 electoral votes.

McCain's numbers ranged from a low of 142 to a high of 252. The most common projection was 185. A total of 13 prognosticators among the 45 saw McCain's electoral vote count at 200 or more electoral votes; 32 projected McCain would garner fewer than 200 electoral votes.

Okay, let's go change the world

A word on the trackers, including Zogby's Daily Poll

I am going to provide what trackers that come out today piecemeal today. Gallup put out its last poll yesterday. Washington Post/ABC put its last out last evening. Zogby, Research 2000/Daily, Rasmussen, and Battleground all are putting out their last polls today.

But first, we have Zogby:

Obama 54
McCain 43

That's an eleven point margin. Zogby observes:
Obviously anything can happen on Election Day, but Americans want change and it seems very clear that the historic candidacy of Sen. Obama defines that change.


It would seem that Florida is going to be tight, tight, tight. There were four polls released yesterday that showed Obama up by one to three points:


Obama 47
McCain 45

10/27 - 11/2/08; 1,773 likely voters


Obama 48
McCain 46

10/30 - 11/2/08; 600 likely voters

Strategic Vision

Obama 49
McCain 47

10/31 - 11/2/08; 1,200 likely voters


Obama 50
McCain 48

10/31-11/2/08;1,717 likely voters

Survey USA

Obama 50
McCain 47

10/31-11/3/08; 691 likely voters

There also were two polls that showed McCain with a one point lead:


McCain 48
Obama 47

11/1-11/2/08; 657 registered voters


McCain 50
Obama 49

11/2/08; 1,000 likely voters

Monday, November 3, 2008

Obama takes the lead with a huge win in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire

John McCain 6
Barack Obama 15
Ralph Nadar 0

That's right, Obama leads the presidential race 71.4% to 28.6%. (Dixville Notch is a Republican stronghold that went Democratic only once before, in 1968.)

Last Tracker of the Day

The Washington Post/ABC tracker is out, and the good news just keeps coming:

Obama 53
McCain 44

The Post article observes about early voters:
Those early voters remain an Obama-leaning group, 58 percent said they voted for the Illinois Democrat, 40 percent for McCain. That's a flip from 2000 and 2004, when George W. Bush scored around 60 percent among early voters.
So the six trackers for today were these:

Hotline, Obama +5
Rasmussen, Obama +6
Research 2000/Daily Kos, Obama +6
Zogby, Obama +7
Gallup Expanded Likely Voter Model, Obama +11
Washington Post/ABC, Obama +11

Talking Points Memo observes:
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.9%-44.3%, a lead of 7.6 points, compared to the 51.5%-44.2% Obama lead from yesterday.
In other words,Obama increased his lead in the weighted average once again.

Vote. Take your kids to Vote. Get out the Vote.

Tomorrow's the big day. There are three things left to do:

1. Vote. Okay, we all know this one. Some of you already have voted. I prefer voting on election day at my polling place because I like the whole activity of going to vote and the community feeling you get voting amongst your neighbors.

2. Take your kids to vote. It's a great way to teach kids about democracy and get them excited about voting in the future. Kids are always eager to participate in things they aren't allowed to do until they're older. By taking your kids to the polls, they will look forward to turning 18 so they can vote, just like they look forward to turning 16 so they can drive.

3. Get out the vote! There are many ways to do this, both formal and informal. You can help through your local Democratic party with telephone banking, knocking on doors, or observing polling places and reporting numbers.

But even if you can't participate in organized GOTV activities, you can still get out the vote on your own. Wear your "I Have Voted" sticker proudly, and ask everyone you talk to, "Have you voted YET?" Call your friends and family members and remind them to get out and vote. When you leave work, remind everyone that they need to get to the polls by 8pm (and even the Presidential race has already been called, remind them of the state and local races that need their votes).

Help someone else get out to vote. Offer to give someone a ride to the polls. Offer to watch a friend's kids, or pick up their kids from school so they have time to vote. Cook dinner for a busy friend (or bring over a pizza) so they can make it to the polls. If you're an employer or manager, let your employees have as much time as they may need to vote.

When more people vote, Democrats win. So whatever you do, make tomorrow about more than just your own vote. Help get out the vote anyway you can.

Two polls show Missouri tied straight up

Survey USA released its final poll of Missouri:

Obama 48
McCain 48

PPP did as well:

Obama 49
McCain 49

Guess it's pretty close, huh?

Evidence of enthusiasm in the Birkshires


Final national polls are coming fast and furious


Obama 53
McCain 44

Democracy Corps

Obama 51
McCain 44
Nader 2
Barr 1


Obama 50
McCain 43


Obama 50
McCain 42

I've got Georgia on my mind

I have been speculating about what's going on in Georgia for some weeks now. As recently as October 28, I guessed that Obama must be winning in early voting in Georgia by a margin of about 53-49. Now comes confirmation from PPP that I was so far off:
Barack Obama still has a decent chance of pulling off the upset in Georgia. He's leading 52-47 among voters who have already cast their ballots, which accounts for 57% of those surveyed. John McCain is up 54-43 with those planning to vote tomorrow.
I was guessing it was a four point lead, and PPP suggests it was a five point lead. In any event, here is how they see the race going tomorrow:

John McCain 50
Barack Obama 48
Bob Barr 2

Fingers crossed for a great victory in the Peach State.

McCain will put the coal out of business

This is courtesy of Jed at Daily Kos:

Sarah Palin is running around Ohio accusing Barack Obama of trying to put the coal industry out of business. Not only is this false, but John McCain's position on clean coal is exactly the same position as Barack Obama's.

They're just a bunch of lying scumbags on the right. That's all you need to know.

Et tu, Battleground?

Does no one love John McCain this morning? How is the Republican Party supposed to steal an election when no one provides them any cover?

Battleground/GWU gives us these data this morning:

Obama 50
McCain 44

The numbers were 49-45 yesterday.

First trackers of the day

Gallup Daily has come out at 1:00 PM (ET) throughout the race, but they have released their final view of the race based on the last data they collected:

Registered Voters
Obama 53
McCain 40

The numbers were 52-41 yesterday. Today's figure, at 13 points, is stronger for Obama today than yesterday.

Likely Expanded Voter Model
Obama 53
McCain 42

The numbers yesterday were 52-43. McCain loses a point while Obama gains a point in the likely expanded voter model.

Traditional Model
Obama 53
McCain 42

Yesterday's numbers were 51-43, so the traditional model settles on the same numbers and spread we see in the expanded voter model, that is, Obama at +11. Gallup observes in this last poll release:
The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support.
Rasmussen is out this morning with these numbers:

Obama 52
McCain 46

Those numbers yesterday were 51-46. This is Rasmussen's take away observation:
On Monday, the final full day of campaigning for Election 2008, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama with 52% of the vote while John McCain is six points back at 46%. That’s up a single point for Obama from his 51% to 46% advantage yesterday. There is just one more night of tracking and our final results for Election 2008 will be published here tomorrow morning at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.
Research 2000/Daily Kos, in its next to final poll of the race, reports these numbers:

Obama 51
McCain 45

The numbers yesterday were 51-44. Daily Kos poll meister DemFromCT notes the steadiness in Obama's number and observes:
At 50-51, Obama wins. McCain will close but he will not win.
My blog colleague and friend atdnext wrote about Zogby, whose reputations has suffered a great blow in this election because of his show-boat approach to his numbers. Zogby observes:

Obama 51
McCain 44

Yesterday, the numbers were 50-44. Zogby opines:
Barack Obama is where he needs to be and John McCain is not. In a multi-candidate race, assuming the minor candidates can win around 2%, 51% can win. Obama holds the groups that he needs and continues to hold a big lead among independents and his base. McCain seems to be holding his base without expanding it or moving into Obama's territory.
Zogby will release another poll on Tuesday morning.

Hotline sees the race unchanged today from yesterday:

Obama 50
McCain 45

Ohio Poll

Ohio Poll/University of Cincinnati is out this morning with more good news:

Obama 52
McCain 46

The poll was in the field between October 29 and November 2. It involved live telephone interviews of 1,308 likely voters and had a standard error of 2.7%. They lead their press release with the only thing we want to hear:
The final Ohio Poll for the 2008 election season finds Senator Barack Obama likely to win Ohio’s 20 electoral votes.

Quinnipiac's Final Battleground Polls

Are you ready? Well, here they are! Let's take a look.

Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 45%

Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 43%

Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 42%

The bad news: Florida is awfully close!

The good news: OMG, we may actually win Florida??!! And Ohio? And win comfortably in Pennsylvania? If anyone had told me this two months ago, I wouldn't have believed that person. But now, it seems quite possible.

Conclusion: So how do we make the possible into the actual? WE WORK! So don't stop now! Keep up the good work, and I know we'll win! :-D

What's Up in Vegas



Another day, another opportunity to win over some more Nevada voters! Yesterday, I had a chance to do this at the campaign office as I got my phone out and called local voters. I made the calls, and here's what happened.

First off, I found some voters who are understandably irritated by the 24/7 campaign in Nevada. I tried to explain to them that I wasn't out to deliberately annoy them, but I don't know if these people really got it. And honestly, these people are the ones who usually look for an excuse not to vote.

Fortunately, I found many more people at home who are planning to vote for Obama and Titus. These people missed early voting, so all they needed was a reminder to vote on Tuesday. Oh yes, and I also found even more Democrats who did vote early before the 10/31 deadline! And whether these folks already voted or will vote on Tuesday, they all sounded enthusiastic about Obama & Titus.

Oh, and did I mention that I was calling Henderson yesterday? And did I forget to say that I reached no McCain-Porter voters while on the phone?

So far, the state of the race looks good in Southern Nevada. However, our work is NOT done! We obviously still have voters to turn out to vote on Tuesday. So please, don't stop working now! Keep up the good work, help me turn out the vote, and I know we'll win! :-)



Final NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll

Here is an exciting poll. It's exciting because all the data were collected on Sunday, so the numbers are absolutely fresh. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll tells the story of likely voters this way:

Obama 51
McCain 43

The story at MSNBC observes:
To put Obama’s eight-point edge into perspective, the final NBC/WSJ survey before the 2004 presidential election had President Bush with a slim one-point lead over John Kerry, 48 to 47 percent.

Bush went on to win that election, 51 to 48 percent.

Intrade predictions

A lot of people credit Intrade with special insight into electoral outcomes because people actually put money on their prognostications. Intrade this morning sees an Obama victory in the Electoral College with 353 electoral votes to McCain's 185.

Halperin projects the electoral college

Mark Halperin writes this morning that Obama's path to 270 is easier to see than McCain's:
Based on interviews with political strategists in both parties, election analysts and advisers to both presidential campaigns — including a detailed look at public and private polling data — an Obama victory with well over 300 electoral votes is a more likely outcome than a McCain victory.
Halperin believes that Obama starts with a "seemingly impenetrable" base of 291 electoral votes. He cites Obama's funding edge, superior organization, and poll position as reasons that Obama can win most of the remaining toss-up states:
Obama could take all of the still contested battlegrounds, giving him nearly 400 electoral votes, and a significant multi-regional mandate.

Ed Rollins makes a prediction

On CNN this morning, Republican strategist Ed Rollins said this:
Everything I know about politics tells me Barack Obama is going to have a big victory.

Last Public Policy Polling

PPP sees Pennsylvania this way:

Obama 53
McCain 45

PPP comments:
Obama has a commanding 56-38 lead with independent voters in the state. As he is in many swing states, Obama is actually carrying more Republican voters (16%) than John McCain is Democratic voters (15%), perhaps surprising in a state where Hillary Clinton won the primary in a walk.
PPP finds Ohio as pretty tight but still tilting towards Obama:

Obama 50
McCain 48

PPP observes that while the race has tightened, it doesn't represent a collapse in Obama's support, which has remained steady. Comments PPP:
(Obama's) banked a huge lead with early voters, who made up about 30% of the sample. He's up 65-34 with those folks. McCain's tightening the race to two points is predicated on his winning election day voters 54-44.
North Carolina also is incredibly tights:

Obama 50
McCain 49

PPP comments:
PPP projects that he racked up a lead of a little over 250,000 voters during early voting. He led 55-45 among those who said they had already voted in our poll, and a little over 2.5 million North Carolinians have already cast their ballots.

But among those planning to vote on election day John McCain leads 56-42. It is always better to have actual votes than hypothetical votes so there's no doubt Obama has the edge right now- the question is just whether enough of those McCain supporters really turn out to make up the gap.
Who would have imagined that Montana would be a tossup at the end of the day?

Obama 48
McCain 47
Paul 4

The story is the same in Montana as anywhere else:
Like in many states, the contest in Montana is going to come down to election day turnout. Among those who say they have already cast their ballots in the state, Barack Obama has built up a 61-35 lead. Among those planning to vote on Tuesday John McCain has a 53-40 advantage.
Florida is also close, close, close, but it trends the way all the other polls have said it is trending:

Obama 50
McCain 48

Once again, the same story:
Over half of those who plan to vote in Florida this fall already have, and among those voters Barack Obama has built up a a 56-43 lead. That leaves John McCain playing catch up if he hopes to take the state on election day- he has a 54-42 lead among those folks planning to vote Tuesday, but the big question is whether they will really turn out.

Zogby, Zogby, Zogby!

You know you want it. You know you must have it. You know you need your Zogby fix, so here are today's numbers!

Obama (D) 50.8%
McCain (R) 43.7%

Zogby shows Obama steadily growing a larger lead. Let's see if the other pollsters confirm this in the morning. Still, it's always fun to see what new wild numbers Zogby comes up with! ;-)

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Protect your vote

CBS News Poll

A new CBS News Poll shows Senator Obama enjoys a commanding lead:

Obama 54
McCain 41
Undecided 4

Among early voters, Obama's lead is even more commanding:

Obama 57
McCain 38

Interestingly, 40 percent of early voters voted in the Democratic primaries and 21 percent of early voters voted in the Republican primaries, but as perhaps some evidence of the new and sporadic voters Obama may be getting to the polls, 32% of early voters did not vote in the primaries. Wow.

New Virginia Numbers from PPP

This is just out this minute. From the Public Policy Polling blog:

Obama 52
McCain 46

McCain's Itinerary on Monday

Monday is the last day of campaigning before Election Day. Politico is reporting that McCain will be in seven days on Monday. He starts with a midnight rally tonight in Miami. He'll get a few hours of sleep and do a rally in Tampa. He will go on to Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada, and end his day in Arizona.


Obama says he's feeling good

CNN reports that Barack Obama said today in Cleveland:
I have to tell you the last couple of days I’ve just been feeling good. And part of the reason that I’m feeling good is because sometimes it’s, sometimes it’s lonely on the road but when you’ve got a wife like Michelle Obama – when you’ve got daughters like Malia and Sasha Obama and when they are with you on the road boy everything look a little better. The crowds seem to grow, and everybody’s got a smile on their face and you start, you start thinking that maybe we might be able to win an election on November 4th.


OBAMA +11 (This poll tomorrow will show Obama 53, McCain 42.)

Obama +13

Just reported on MSNBC. No links yet. Developing.

Public Policy Polling is in the field

Public Policy Polling (PPP) is in the field right now and plans to release polls in the hours to come in North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, Montana, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Virginia. Tom Jensen of PPP posted today at PPP's blog the following comment:
When we started running these polls Friday morning I was virtually certain Barack Obama would be elected President.

I still am.
As the polls are released, I'll try to keep them updated here.

Final tracking poll of the day is out

The Washington Post/ABC Tracking Poll is out. They find that while Obama's lead increased by one point from yesterday, McCain's declined by a point:

Obama 54
McCain 43

The spread yesterday was 53-44. The Post observed:
One part of McCain's steep challenge is that more than a quarter of the probable electorate has already voted - among these early birds, 59 percent said they voted for Obama, 40 percent for McCain.
Today's numbers were these:

Rasmussen, Obama +5
Hotline, Obama +5
Zogby, Obama +6
Research 2000/Daily Kos, Obama + 7
Gallup Expanded Likely Voter Model, Obama +8
Washington Post/ABC, Obama +11

Talking Points Memo observes:
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.5%-44.2%, a lead of 7.3 points, compared to the 51.2%-44.1% Obama lead from yesterday. Counting today, Obama's lead has increased by small amounts in the last four consecutive Composites.

Rasmussen on Pennsylvania

Rasmussen has conducted three polls of Pennsylvania during the last week. The first poll it released last Monday showed this spread:

Obama 53
McCain 46

The second poll was released on Thursday:

Obama 51
McCain 47

Today's poll by Rasmussen tells this story:

Obama 52
McCain 46

In other words, within one week, Rasmussen found Pennsylvania to be 7-5-6. These are random fluctuations in a static race.

Pew's final poll

The Pew Research Center has released its final poll. Its results are these:

Obama 49
McCain 42
Other 2
Undecided 7

It estimates that more of the undecided voters will split for McCain than Obama; based on this assumption, it predicts the following will be the spread on election day:

Obama 52
McCain 46
Other 2

The sample size was 2,587 likely voters, and Pew conducted the field work between October 29 and November 1.

Pew makes the following observations:
Obama holds a wide lead over John McCain among those who say they have already voted (32% of all likely voters) or say they plan to vote before Election Day (7%). However, it is not quite as large as it was a week ago. More significant, the race is about even among voters who plan to vote on Election Day: 46% support McCain while 45% favor Obama.
These are the current breakdowns:

Among those who already voted:
Obama 54
McCain 36

Among those who will vote after the poll's conclusion but before election day:
Obama 64
McCain 26

Vote on Election Day:
Obama 46
McCain 45

MSNBC defines its final map

Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann at First Read furnish us their last electoral map. First the numbers, and then the states:

Obama 286
McCain 157
Toss-Up 95

Alright, behind the numbers:

Likely Obama: 227 electoral votes


Lean Obama: 59 votes

Toss-Up: 95 votes

Lean McCain: 34 votes

Likely McCain: 123 votes
LA MS NE (the rest of the state)

Baracking the Vote in Nevada


In case you forgot, I'm busy this week helping Barack Obama's campaign here in Nevada. And of course, this also means I'm working hard for the Dina Titus for Congress campaign in Nevada's 3rd District. And as I get ready for another hard day of campaigning today in Las Vegas, I want to share with you my experience on the ground yesterday.



First off, the rally yesterday morning was fantastic! We filled up the entire football field AND the whole set of open bleachers at Coronado High School in Henderson to see Barack Obama lay out his vision for a stronger America. It's just amazing to witness how Obama has grown as a candidate. Not that long ago, I wondered where all the specifics were amidst all the talk of hope and change and unity. But now, he can inspire while also fleshing out concrete plans for change on Iraq, the economy, health care, energy, and so much more. Obama has really found his inner Clinton, and I think he's all the better for it.

After the rally, I headed over to Obama & Titus office near McCarran Airport to pick up my assignment. And guess what? They gave me a neighborhood in Henderson's Green Valley community, arguably the most Republican heavy area in the Vegas Valley! I suddenly wondered how much success I'd have with even finding Democrats, let alone Democrats who will vote on Tuesday.

But ultimately, my fears were misplaced as usual. For one, there were as many Obama yard signs as McCain signs up in the neighborhood. Oh yes, and I ran into quite a few Democrats who already voters! Of the many Obama supporters I found at home, only two had not voted yet. And remember, this is supposed to be a "Republican stronghold"! Not bad, eh?

So really, we have good reason to feel good about Tuesday. But still, this election is NOT a done deal for us! Remember that my friends and I here in Nevada still need to turn out the last-minute Obama-Titus voters and persuade those still undecided voters to vote for Obama & Titus! So if you can, please keep up the good work by volunteering and making calls from wherever you're at!

If you work as hard as you can in these next three days, we will win and WIN BIG! So what are you waiting for? Let's go out and win this election, baby!




Gallup Daily Out

The Gallup Daily Tracker is out, and these are the results:

Registered Voters
Obama 52
McCain 41

The numbers were 52-41 yesterday. Today's figure is unchanged from yesterday.

Likely Expanded Voter Model
Obama 52
McCain 43

The numbers yesterday were 52-42. McCain gains a point while Obama's number remains stable.

Traditional Model
Obama 51
McCain 43

Yesterday's numbers were 52-42, so in the traditional model, Obama leads today by eight where yesterday he led by 10.

It's all noise. This race is on autodrive at this point.

Frank Luntz predicts an Obama win

Republican strategist Frank Luntz says:
I cannot foresee a scenario that John McCain is elected president of the United States.
It's around 3:25 or so. Luntz believes that whatever improvements McCain has experienced have been in California, New York, and Texas, that is, in places where it makes no difference. He sees Obama's lead as solid and, perhaps, growing in the swing states that will spell the difference in the election.

Alaska women for Obama

CNN's final poll of the election is out

Bill Schneider on CNN gives his network's last poll of the season. They find Obama has a seven-point lead:

Obama 53
McCain 46

It has a +/-3.0. When they include other candidates in their poll, they gets this:

Obama 51
McCain 43
Others 4

It has +/-3.5. Wolf Blitzer observed that their last polls of 2000 and 2004 went this way:

Bush 47
Gore 45

Bush 49
Kerry 47

CNN's web site has the poll up.

Two changes on CNN's magic map

John King on CNN has flipped Montana from lean McCain to tossup. He also has moved Iowa from lean Obama to strong Obama. McCain says it's not impossible for McCain, but he needs to have a perfect 48 hours.

Their map:
Obama 291
McCain 157
Toss-Up 90

First trackers of the day

Rasmussen is out this morning with these numbers:

Obama 51
McCain 46

That lead yesterday is the same as yesterday when Rasmussen's numbers were 51-46. This is Rasmussen's take away observation:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday once again shows Barack Obama with 51% of the vote while John McCain is five points back at 46%. This is the 38th straight day that Obama’s support has stayed between 50% and 52%.
Research 2000/Daily Kos sees the race this way:

Obama 51
McCain 44

The numbers yesterday were the same, 51-44. Daily Kos poll guru DemFromCT observes:
On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +8 Thurs, +9 Fri and +4 Sat with a +5 Wed sample rolling off (rounding can take place.) The Obama video (33.6 million viewers) is reflected today. The +4 (50-46) is the tightest single day sample we've seen in the poll (but one-day samples are very variable.) There has been no major event to change the numbers.
That Saturday number should tell everyone what they need to know about working hard to turn out our vote on Tuesday.

Our own atdnext already shared the news about poor pathetic Zogby. He trumpets his one day numbers the night before last of a one-day McCain one-point lead and has to eat crow the next night:

Obama 50
McCain 44

Yesterday, the numbers were 49-44. Zogby blames bloggers for his crack binge on his perpetual hunt for newspaper headlines:
Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42% . . . . So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too . . . . Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health.
Zogby needs to admit that he is a crack addict before he starts pointing fingers at bloggers.

Hotline is out and records the race this way:

Obama 50
McCain 45

The numbers yesterday were 51-45. The poll finds that 27% of registered voters already have voted.

State polls this morning

A number of state polls are out this morning. They come from different sources, so let's go through them.

First, Pennsylvania is on the minds of many Democrats because the polls have tightened over the last several days as the McCain camp as made a full frontal attack on the Keystone state. Muhlenberg College's tracking poll is out this morning and sees a seven-point race:

Obama 52
McCain 45

The poll was conducted by live telephone interviews between October 29 and October 31; it included a sample of 599 likely voters. The standard error was +/-4.0%.

We have The Washington Poll for the state of Washington:

Obama 51
McCain 39

The poll was conducted by live telephone interviews between October 27 and October 31; tt included a small sample of 387 registered voters. The standard error was +/-5.0%.

Monmouth is out this morning with a poll for New Jersey:

Obama 55
McCain 34

The poll was conducted by live telephone interviews between October 29 and October 31; it included a sample of 801 likely voters. The standard error was +/-3.5%.

Deseret News entitles its article on a poll for Utah, "Poll: Obama gains but McCain remains Utah's choice." The poll observes:

McCain 57
Obama 32

The poll was conducted by live telephone interviews between October 29 and October 31; it included a sample of 1,205 registered voters. The standard error was +/-2.9%.

Ohio University is out this morning with a poll of the Buckeye State. It is riddled with problems, but first the numbers:

Obama 57
McCain 41

I would love to believe this is true, but the poll was in the field too long, and it was released more than a week after the end of data collection. The pollsters conducted live telephone interviews between October 12 to October 23, and they conducted it of 611 adults, that is, neither likely nor registered voters. It seems to me to have been a class project poll.

New Obama ad out

A word on irrational exuberance

I believe in my heart of hearts that Barack Obama is on the road to becoming president of the United States. But I have been listening this morning to a variety of broadcast shows, and the dancing in the streets is a bit premature. Wednesday is the day of dancing. We have not won this election yet, because America does not vote until Tuesday.

You Democrats appearing in the broadcast media, just cut the crap. Get the vote out. If we win, as well we should if we give it everything today, tomorrow, and Tuesday, dance all day on Wednesday.

Tucson, Arizona newspaper endorses Barack Obama

Tucson, Arizona is home to the University of Arizona at Tucson. (I attended summer school there one year in the 1980s as an undergraduate.) It's newspaper is the Arizona Daily Star. The Arizona Daily Star has endorsed Barack Obama for president of the United States:
This moment in history requires courage to change. Our nation must find a way to restore the confidence that our government is of the people, by the people, for the people — all of our people.

We share Obama's vision of America. And we share his urgency.

Live from New York: It's Saturday Night

And, of course, Palin was punked yesterday by radio comedians from Quebec. As The Washington Post attests this morning:
The conversation, captured on a Montreal radio program, was, in a word, embarrassing.
She is a complete tool.

Zogby, Oh, Zogby!

I don't know about you, but I find it highly appropriate that I'm blogging the new Zogby daily tracker from my "smart phone" just as I'm recovering from being drunk & playing my favorite nickel slot machines at the MGM Grand!

Obama 49.5%
McCain 43.8%

And my favorite tidbit from Zogby? Supposedly, they went from McCain +1 in yesterday's sample to Obama +10 in today's sample! Can you believe it? I can't!

So you want to take a bet that John Zogby may just be making these numbers up while drunk & gambling like hell just like me? I don't know for sure, as there may be a chance his poll may really be legitimate. But come on, can you believe it? Uh huh, and I'm a part of the brand new Cirque du Soleil show? hehe ;-)