Arizona is within reach

Myers Research (D) & Grove Insight (D) has the following data to report for the race for Arizona's 10 electoral votes:

Likely voters
McCain 44
Obama 40

Early voters (34% of the sample)
McCain 46
Obama 47

Yep, it seems possible that Barack Obama has a marginal lead among early voters in Arizona. Arizona is not in the bag for John McCain.

David Frum argues for the Republicans to abandon the McCain campaign

Writing in Sunday's Washington Post, neoconservative former Bush speechwriter David Frum calls for the Republican Party to abandon the McCain campaign and focus instead on imperiled Republican senators. He says in the article that McCain's campaign is pulling down the entire entire Republican ticket from top to bottom:

McCain's awful campaign is having awful consequences down the ballot. I spoke a little while ago to a senior Republican House member. "There is not a safe Republican seat in the country," he warned. "I don't mean that we're going to lose all of them. But we could lose any of them."

He calls for the Republicans to behave strategically and abandon the McCain campaign to attempt to save enough Republican seats in the Senate to stop Democrats' initiative during the first years of the Obama Administration:

In these last days before the vote, Republicans need to face some strategic realities. Our resources are limited, and our message is failing. We cannot fight on all fronts. We are cannibalizing races that we must win and probably can win in order to help a national campaign that is almost certainly lost. In these final 10 days, our goal should be: senators first.

They're abandoning the McCain campaign like rats taking flight from a sinking ship.

A Wingnut Interviews Biden

WFTV's Barbara Lee is a whack job of the Michele Bachmann vintage.

The Washington Post Tracking Poll

The Washington Post/ABC tracking poll says that Barack Obama maintains the same nine point lead he had yesterday over John McCain:

Obama 53
McCain 44

The Post observes the continuing enthusiasm gap between supporters of the two campaigns:

As Election Day creeps closer, Obama's supporters are expressing near unanimous enthusiasm for his campaign, while McCain's backers remain more reserved. Seventy-one percent of Obama backers said they feel "very" enthusiastic about the campaign and 97 percent feel at least somewhat fired up about his candidacy. Among McCain's backers, 88 percent said they were enthusiastic, but far fewer, 39 percent, were decidedly so.

So to sum up, we're following six tracking polls. Obama's margins of victory over John McCain in each of these polls are these:

Gallup Expanded Likely Voter Model, Obama +7
Hotline, Obama +7
Rasmussen, Obama +8
Washington Post/ABC, Obama +9
Zogby, Obama +10
Research 2000/Daily Kos, Obama +12

Talking Points Memo observes:

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.6%-42.8%, a lead of 8.8 points, compared to the 51.6%-43.1% Obama lead from yesterday.

Obama continues to put traction between himself and McCain; yesterday, the margin between the two men was 8.5, so we're up 0.3 over yesterday.

CNN reports that Sarah Palin is off the reservation

CNN is reporting that the famously undisciplined campaign of John McCain, someone who during the course of the campaign frequently has been described as erratic, has lost control of Sarah Palin. McCain aides apparently consider her to be a "rogue" vice presidential candidate. McCain campaign aides cite several instances where Palin has criticized the campaign and gone off message. The story notes that a McCain aides complains that "she appears to be looking out for herself more than the McCain campaign." This aide said:

She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone. She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else. Also, she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party. Remember: Divas trust only unto themselves, as they see themselves as the beginning and end of all wisdom.

Great. First, the Republican Party thrusts upon the United States a pathological gambler in the person of its presidential nominee, and then he selects for vice president a woman he cannot trust. Andrew Sullivan asks:

If McCain doesn't trust her, why should anyone else?

All I can say is this, Barack Obama for president.

I was born in Omaha, Nebraska

That's where the second congressional district lies in the state of Nebraska. Omaha is the most Democratic place in the state, which isn't saying a lot, but it does explain how I was born into a long line of Democrats. Nebraska divides its electoral votes, so if Obama were to win the second congressional district, he would win an electoral vote in Nebraska. Hillary visited Omaha a few days ago, so I thought I would share this video on the effort to turn the Nebraska Second Congressional District blue:

Obama back on the trail: Here he's in Reno, Nevada

James Taylor for Obama

What's the word? Tinklenberg.

Gallup Daily

1:00 EDT has come and gone, and the Gallup Daily Tracker is out. Here are their three scenarios:

Registered Voters
Obama 51
McCain 42

The numbers were 50-42 yesterday.

Expanded Likely Voter Model (Intent)
Obama 51
McCain 43

The numbers were 51-44 yesterday.

Traditional Likely Voter Model (Intent and past behavior)
Obama 51
McCain 44

The numbers were 50-45 yesterday.

So like the morning trackers, Gallup Daily is showing a steady race for Barack Obama An interesting fact in today's tracking polls to this point in the day is that McCain is now below 45 in each of them.

Ohio Poll: Obama up

A poll conducted for Ohio newspapers sees Barack Obama by three:

Obama 49
McCain 46

The trend line in this poll is for Obama, who moved seven points from trailing McCain to beating him in the current findings. The article observes that Ohio has missed the winner of the presidential race only twice in the last 108 years.

Keith Olbermann Special Comment

First trackers of the day

Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 52
McCain 44

The numbers yesterday were 52-45, so today's poll represents a one point gain in Obama's margin over McCain. Rasmussen observes:

This eight point advantage matches Obama’s biggest lead of the year in a race that has been remarkably stable down the stretch. A week ago today, Obama was up by five. Two weeks ago, he was up by seven

Rasmussen observes that Obama's number in his poll has been 50, 51, or 52 now for 30 days.

Research 2000/Daily Kos reports this morning:

Obama 52
McCain 40

The numbers yesterday were the same, that is, 52-40.

Dkos Poll Guru DemFromCT comments:

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +10 Wed, +14 Thurs and +11 Friday.

As a statistical matter, Zogby sees Obama's and McCain's numbers as essentially stable:

Obama 51
McCain 42

Yesterday, the numbers were 51-41. Zogby describes the overall trends this way:

Since the beginning of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking two-and-a-half weeks ago, Obama has gained 3.4 points, while McCain has lost 3.7 points.

Hotline Diageo shows the race with the same numbers we saw yesterday:

Obama 50
McCain 43

Steady as she goes.

Barack Obama's new two-minute ad

John McCain: Gambler

Colorado Looks Great for Obama

The latest Rocky Mountain News/CBS4 News poll suggests Obama enjoys a commanding double digit lead in Colorado:

Obama 52
McCain 40

The poll is August gave McCain a three-point edge. Rocky Mountain News reports:

In the latest survey, only 11 percent of Coloradans said the country was heading in the right direction, while 83 percent said it was on the wrong track.

Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican firm, interviewed 500 likely Colorado voters. The article notes, "Obama's lead was well outside the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points."

PPP also sees Obama up in Ohio

PPP has released a poll that shows Obama leading John McCain by nine points in Ohio"

Obama 51
McCain 44

Constituent factors in his lead involve his lead among independents, a unified Democratic Party, a strong showing among white voters, and dominance among African American and young voters. PPP noted:

PPP surveyed 993 likely voters from October 21st to 23rd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.1%.

Some Friday evening amusement

New Newsweek Poll: Obama by 13

Newsweek Has released a new poll of the upcoming election, and as many polls recently have suggested, Barack Obama is dominating the field:

Registered
Obama 53
McCain 40

Likely Voters
Obama 53
McCain 41

Newsweek notes:

The new poll suggests Obama is consolidating his support across demographic groups. He now leads McCain in every age group, even among voters 65 and older, who choose him over McCain 48 percent to 42 percent. He leads handily among men, 52 percent to 42 percent, and among women, 54 percent to 39 percent. He now leads McCain by 46 percent to 44 percent among working class whites, a dramatic reversal from April, when McCain led him in that group 53 percent to 35 percent.

Barack Obama's sister discusses their mother

This is really very touching; it's quite well done:



Barack's sister Maya Soetoro-Ng discusses the strong influence their mother has had on their values and outlook. Visit Women for Obama.

Washington Post/ABC shows Obama's support steady

The Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll sees Obama up by nine points this evening:

Obama 53
McCain 44

Sarah Palin's unfavorable ratings are pretty high:

Both Obama and John McCain sport high favorability ratings. So too does Democratic vice presidential candidate Joe Biden. By contrast, ratings for GOP No. 2 Sarah Palin continue to slump. In each Post-ABC poll since the GOP convention, Palin's negatives have gone up among likely voters. Just after the party's nomination convention, 29 percent of likely voters held unfavorable views of Palin; in the new poll that is up to 51 percent.

So the six trackers we follow have these spreads among them:

Gallup Expanded Voter Model, Obama +7
Rasmussen, Obama +7
Hotline, Obama +7
Washington Post/ABC, Obama +9
Zogby, Obama +10
Research 2000/Daily Kos, Obama +12

Talking Points Memo observes:

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.6%-43.1%, a lead of 8.5 points, compared to the 51.5%-43.1% Obama lead from yesterday.

Today, Obama increases his weighted average lead by 0.1, a lead he has increased now each day for several days.

And George W. Bush Voted for...

John McCain for President! Yippee!!!! Let's hope McCain uses this in his next campaign ad.

"George W. Bush Trusts John McCain to Continue the EPIC FAIL That He Started"

I love that. ;-)

Plouffe quietly confident

Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe had one of his periodic talks with reporters about his assessment of the state of the race. Halperin reports that Plouffe believes McCain's challenges in Pennsylvania are daunting:

The Obama camp manager says McCain would have to win 15% of the Democratic vote, 95% of the Republican and 60% of the independent vote to take the battleground.

Scott Helman of boston.com outlines a number of points from the conversation, including this one:

The campaign believes it can hold all the states John Kerry won in 2004, and that Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia (all states Bush won) may be in the bag. They like their position in Nevada, Ohio, and Florida, and believe they could also pull off wins in Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Montana, and West Virginia.

It sounds like they have put together tiers of probable wins. If this is the case, it seems the tiers are these; note that Tier One is sufficient to win the presidency:

Tier One (Most Likely)
Kerry States
Iowa
New Mexico
Colorado
Virginia

Tier Two
Nevada
Ohio
Florida

Tier Three
Missouri
Indiana
North Carolina
Montana
West Virginia

I'm glad that, given their insider knowledge, they seem to have relatively high hopes for Ohio and Florida. With all the attention we've been paying to it, I think it's interesting that they should place North Carolina in the same category as Indiana, Montana, and West Virginia. I have been thinking it was in the same category as Nevada, so I wonder if this is a signal from the campaign that our hopes for the Tar Heel state have dimmed a little.

Helman also says that Plouffe made these points:

-- Obama's unprecedented groud organization claims 1.5 million active volunteers and 770 offices across the country.

-- Since Labor Day alone, the campaign says it has had conversations with 1.3 million voters in Florida, and 1.5 million Ohioans.

-- Those big crowds Obama keeps drawing? Well, they're not just listening. They're being put to work. Out of the roughly 120,000 people who came to see Obama and his wife this week in Florida, for example, the campaign says it got 40,000 volunteer shifts covered.

Reading between the lines, it seems to me that Plouffe is hinting we're meeting our goals for volunteers and voter contacts.

Finally, Helman says that Plouffe made this observation:

The early voting numbers favor Obama in a host of important states, with Democrats voting at higher rates than they did in 2004. And many of them are new voters: The campaign says that 20 percent of all Democrats who have voted by mail in Colorado have never voted in a general election, and that 18 percent of Democrats voting early in North Carolina are new voters. The takeaway: Democrats are voting early in greater numbers, and many of them are first-timers, suggesting that there will still be plenty of more practiced Democrats to cast ballots on Nov. 4.

To be honest, of everything he said, I think this may be the most important insider information. If underperforming voters are voting en masse and early, we're going to be very happy on November 4.

Whack Job Authentique in trouble

A second poll in 24 hours has shown the Whack Job Authentique is trailing her Democratic rival, El Tinklenberg:

Tinklenberg 45
Bachmann 43
Anderson 5

This poll, conducted by Minnesota Public Radio, is quite comparable to the poll we saw this morning from Survey USA:

Tinklenberg 47
Bachmann 44
Anderson 6

McCain adviser endorses Obama

drip

drip

drip

Charles Fried, a McCain adviser and Solicitor General under Ronald Reagan, has voted by absentee for Barack Obama. He cited Palin's vice presidential nomination as a reason why he was supporting the Democratic nominee. Understandably, he has asked that the McCain campaign remove his name from the list of advisers to the Arizona senator.

Gallup looks at early voting trends

Gallup is looking at early voting trends. It currently estimates that 11 percent of registered voters have voted. They anticipate that 19% of registered voters will have voted early by the time early voting concludes. Currently, 69% of registered voters intend to cast a ballot; were that to happen, this election would have unprecedented turnout. Here are some interesting trends that Gallup is finding among early voters:

1. As a percentage of their candidate preference, Obama and McCain voters are equally likely to vote early. Currently, 10 percent of Obama voters have cast a ballot and nine percent of McCain voters have case a ballot.

2. While "equal percentages of Obama and McCain voters have voted early, there are more of the former than of the latter, meaning that early voting generally reflects the same Obama lead evident in the overall sample." In other words, without exactly saying it, Gallup is suggesting that Obama must be ahead by roughly seven points in early voting.

Gallup concludes:

If McCain gains rapidly in the days left, Obama benefits, since Obama can't lose votes he has already received.

Of course, at the moment, there doesn't seem to be a sign that McCain is gaining, rapidly or otherwise.

Gallup Tracker

The Gallup Daily Tracker is out. Here are their three scenarios:

Registered Voters
Obama 50
McCain 42

The numbers were 50-43 yesterday.

Expanded Likely Voter Model (Intent)
Obama 51
McCain 44

The numbers were 51-45 yesterday.

Traditional Likely Voter Model
Obama 50
McCain 45

The numbers were 50-46 yesterday.

Most Recent Georgia Numbers: Almost a Million

967,210: That's the number of Georgians who have voted early in this election. Mind you, we have about a week more of early voting to go, but we already have a 128 percent increase in 2008 over all early votes cast in 2004. At present, 35.4% of early voters in Georgia (n=342,802)are African American, even though they represent just 29% of registered voters in the Peach State; in 2004, African Americans represented 25% of the total electorate in Georgia.

Obama's New Tax Cut Ad

Barry Goldwater's Granddaughter Endorses...

Barack Obama for President! Why? Oh, just because John McCain is NO Barry Goldwater! Apparently, many in Goldwater's family are not impressed with McCain's sleazy campaign, support for The Bush-Cheney-Neocon-Corporate Right Agenda, and complete sell-out of the libertarian values that Barry Goldwater fought for.

So hooray for McCrazy losing even MORE Republican votes! ;-)

Polling Cell Phone Users and Not Polling Them

Brian Schaffner yesterday examined the issue of pollsters who are finding a wide Obama margin of victory and pollsters who are reporting a narrower Obama margin of victory. He observes that the pollsters who show the greatest margin for Obama are the ones who include in their sample persons who exclusively use cell phones (that is, don't have landlines.) Schaffner notes:

Obama's support increases by almost 3% in the national trend that includes polls reaching cell phone only respondents while McCain's support decreases by about 1%.

He includes some great visuals in his analysis that makes clear the problem. I tried to embed them here, but it didn't work, so I recommend you click through and take a look at the differences between the two groups of pollsters.

GEORGIA??!! YES. WE. CAN!

Seriously... GEORGIA??!! Insider Advantage says it can happen.

President:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 47%

Senate:
Chambliss (R) 44%
Martin (D) 42%

Yes, these numbers are for real! That's why we can't stop going now. Not since Bill Clinton in 1992 has a Democrat won Georgia's 13 electoral votes. And even better yet, we're extremely close to winning a Senate seat here.

So don't give up... Help Barack Obama & Jim Martin win! :-D

Indiana really seems to be trending our way

Yesterday, the Big Ten Battleground poll suggested that Obama is leading in the Hoosier State. Almost as if to confirm this trend, Obama held a rally for 35,000 persons in Indianapolis yesterday. Today comes new word from a different pollster that Obama leads McCain in Indiana. Survey USA informs us:

Obama 49
McCain 45

Obama leads in voters below the age of 50 (O-50, M-44) and is tied among voters who are 50 and above (O-47, M-46).

The Morning's States of the Race

Brought to you by Politico-Insider Advantage!

Florida:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 47%

Ohio:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 42%

The bad news: I guess Florida is close.

The good news: Still, remember that this is the first time Politico-IA has shown Obama ahead in Florida, so he's still moving in the right direction. And OHIO??!! Wow, Obama is REALLY pulling ahead in The Buckeye State! This is the fourth consecutive poll this week (along with Big Ten, Qunnipiac, and Suffolk) showing Obama ahead far outside the margin of error in Ohio, so there's obviously real movement happening here. I guess it's about time that Ohio catch up with the rest of The Rust Belt.

Conclusion: Florida & Ohio may not be key to Obama's victory this year, but they still are key to a large Democratic victory vs. a narrow win. If we can win one or both states, we'll likely see a landslide that gives Obama a BIG mandate AND sends far more Democrats to the House & Senate. That's why it's critical that we NOT give up, NOT get complacent, and keep working until we win & win BIG! :-D

First trackers of the day

Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 52
McCain 45

The numbers yesterday were the same, 52-45.

Rasmussen observes:

Forty-six percent (46%) of all voters say they are certain to vote for Obama and will not change their mind before Election Day. Forty-one percent (41%) are equally certain of their support for McCain.

Research 2000/Daily Kos reports this morning:

Obama 52
McCain 40

The numbers yesterday were, 51-41.

Dkos Poll Meister DemFromCT comments:

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +12 Tues, +10 Wed and +14 Thurs.

Zogby sees Obama's and McCain's numbers as essentially stable:

Obama 51
McCain 41

Yesterday, the numbers were 52-40. Zogby describes the elements in his polling that contribute to Obama's sustained strength:

Obama continues to dominate among independent voters – he leads by a 56% to 30% margin over McCain among those voters – and among those who have already cast their ballots. Those who have already voted now comprise more than 10% of the Zogby sample, and Obama holds a 20–point lead in that category. Among those who are new voters – registering in the last 6 months – the Democrat holds a 69% to 26% edge over McCain.

Hotline/Diageo is out showing Obama's margin has increased over his position yesterday:

Obama 50
McCain 43

The numbers yesterday were 48-43, so while McCain's number remained flat, Obama's increased by two.

Al Tinklenberg for Congress, Minnesota 6

Your blog dollars at work:



Put Michele Bachmann out of our collective misery. As a sign of your desire to have the Whack Job Authentique go to her well-deserved retirement:

1. If you haven't done so already, sign the petition asking Congress to censure Michele Bachmann.

2. Donate to Whack Job's Democratic opponent, Elwyn Tinklenberg, to defeat her and replace her as the congressman from Minnesota's sixth District come the November Election.

Saturday Night Live, Weekend Update Thursday

Brian Williams's interview with McCain and Palin continues

Poor John has to babysit Sarah, and he obviously isn't enjoying himself. The baby musses her diapers in this interview, and grandpa cleans up the mess:



She makes Dan Quayle look good.

Tinklenberg leads Whack Job Authentique in poll

A new Survey USA Poll finds that Elwyn Tinklenberg leads the Whack Job Authentique in Minnesota's sixth district:

Tinklenberg 47
Bachmann 44
Anderson 6

The lead is within the poll's margin of error, which is four points. Anderson is a member of the Independence Party. The prior poll in the race, taken before the Whack Job Authentique's infamous gaffes on Chris Matthews's "Hardball," showed Whack Job enjoyed a four point advantage.

Put Michele Bachmann out of our collective misery. As a sign of your desire to have the Whack Job Authentique go to her well-deserved retirement:

1. If you haven't done so already, sign the petition asking Congress to censure Michele Bachmann.

2. Donate to Whack Job's Democratic opponent, Elwyn Tinklenberg, to defeat her and replace her as the congressman from Minnesota's sixth District come the November Election.

Obama speaks Spanish in this ad

Michelle Obama Addresses Florida Obama Supporters

New York Times Endorses Obama

The Gray Lady, the nation's newspaper of record, has endorsed Barack Obama for president of the United States.

Al Bundy for Obama

Some updates on early voting around the country

North Carolina: A total of 737,000 North Carolinians have voted in the first week of voting, and there is no easing up of the number from day-to-day. To this point, Democrats have outpaced Republicans 2 to 1 at the polls. Of registered Democrats, nearly one in six has come to the polls while only one in 11 Republicans have made it. Though White individuals outnumber Black persons who have come to the polls by 2 to 1, one in six registered Black persons already has voted while one in 10 White persons has. An AP story reports, "More than 210,000 blacks who are registered as Democrats have cast early ballots in the Tar Heel State — compared with roughly 174,000 registered Republicans overall."

Georgia: 892,230 Georgians have come to the polls since early voting started. In the entire 2004 cycle, only 425,000 Georgians voted early. To date, 317,212 African Americans have come to the polls in Georgia; that's 36% of all early voters even though Black Georgians represent only 29 percent of registered voters in the state and the fact that the presented only 25 percent of voters in 2004.

Nevada: Nevada so far has seen 11 percent of its voting population already cast ballots, that is, 136,000 people. Clark and Washoe counties are Nevada's largest counties and have a majority of Democrats; voting there has had the Democrats outstripping the Republicans by more than 2-1.

Florida has seen 482,000 citizens come to the polls, and a poll of early voters in the Sunshine State suggests Obama leads McCain among those voters by about four points. Democrats have represented 55 percent of early voters.

CBS-NYT Sez: No "McSurge" Here!

12 days left to go... And still no magic "McSurge" that could instantly send McBush-Failin' to victory. That's what tonight's new CBS-New York Times poll shows.

Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 39%

Essentially, no change from last week's results & the results from earlier this week. At this point, McCrazy needs to pick up just over 1% a day just to get to a tie. Sounds doable? Not quite.

Remember that no candidate has ever in the history of modern polling has come from this far behind to win a Presidential Election. Even in 1980, Reagan came from behind with still over a month to go. But with only 12 days to go in 2008? Bye, bye McCrazy.

So does this mean we get complacent in victory? HELL, NO!!!! Again, let's keep working as hard as we can to make this win so BIG that there's no way the GOP can steal it from us.

Rallies by the Numbers: A Tale of Two Trajectories

Barack Obama stopped in Indiana today on his way to Hawaii to be with his ailing grandmother. There were 35,000 Hoosiers who came out to see him.

Meanwhile, John McCain seems to be having a somewhat more difficult time generating turnout at his events:

Apparently McCain drew less than 500 people to a rally in suburban PA two days ago. Then he went to Western PA and flubbed the attack lines against John Murtha's comments so that the sound bite was completely incoherent. On Monday he drew crowds of about 2000, then 15 people at an airport rally (yes, that is correct--no zeros), and then his third rally of the day was described as "sparsely attended."

Tracker Summary for the Day

Here is a summary of Obama's lead in the six trackers of the day:

Hotline, Obama +5
Gallup Extended Likely Voter Model, Obama +6
Rasmussen, Obama +7
Research 2000/Daily Kos, Obama +10
Washington Post/ABC, Obama +11
Zogby, Obama +12

Talking Points Memo observes:

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.5%-43.1%, a lead of 8.4 points, compared to the 51.3%-43.1% Obama lead from yesterday.

In other words, the weighted average increased by 0.2 from yesterday.

Tonight's States of the Race

Where should we begin? How about Florida?

St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 42%

And how 'bout those new Rasmussen polls?

Louisiana:
McCain (R) 57%
Obama (D) 41%

Georgia:
McCain (R) 51%
Obama (D) 46%

Washington:
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 43%

Minnesota:
Obama (D) 56%
McCain (R) 41%

The bad news: I guess Louisiana is out of reach.

The good news: Fortunately, we don't need Louisiana to win. However, we are winning all the must-win Kerry states like Washington & Minnesota! Oh yes, and how about Georgia??!! Wow... Georgia!!!!

Conclusion: I hate sounding like a broken record, but if this holds up in the next 12 days we'll be in for a good November 4. So you know what to do now. Make us win & make this win BIG! :-D

ABC-WaPo Reporting

ABC-Washington Post is in now, and here are today's numbers.

Obama 54%
McCain 43%

This is unchanged from yesterday, which means good news for Obama. As long as the race remains this stable, we're in a good position for November 4. :-)

A friend sent me this

If you're about my age, you will appreciate this video

See more Ron Howard videos at Funny or Die

MONTANA?! YES. WE. CAN!

For a few weeks during the summer, it looked like Montana was a swing state. But shortly after the Republican Convention, it seemed like "Palinpalooza" sealed the deal for McCain here. Well, that's obviously not the case any more!!

Obama (D) 44%
McCain (R) 40%
Paul (I) 4%
Nader (I) 1%
Barr (L) 1%

With the economy in peril, Montanans seem to be giving Obama another look. Also, Ron Paul stands a serious threat to eat into McCain's numbers enough to throw the state's 3 electoral votes our way.

Simply put, this is nothing short of breathtaking! Who'd have thought that a Democrat could win MONTANA this year??!! This is all the more reason for us to work our behinds off to MAKE. THIS. VICTORY. BIG!!!! :-)

Survey USA: Obama by 12 in Pennsylvania

SurveyUSA releases results this afternoon that indicate Barack Obama leads John McCain by 12 points:

Obama 53
McCain 41

This is today's fourth poll to show Obama at 10 or more points:

AllState, Obama +10
Big Ten Battleground, Obama + 11
Quinnipiac, Obama +13

Allstate-National Journal Does the Rust Belt

And the results? Pretty damn good for Democrats!

Minnesota:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 40%

Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 41%

Wisconsin:
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 40%

The bad news: None here!

The good news: All 3 "Barely Blue States" from 2004 look awfully "Solid Blue" now! This is obviously good news for Obama & for us. No matter what crap McCrazy tries to throw at the wall in these states, it doesn't seem like any of it is working. Obama no longer looks to have any "blue-collar" or "white working class" problems anywhere in The Rust Belt. And now with the economy as Issue #1, this only helps Democrats here.

Conclusion: Still, let's NOT get complacent. Let's get working to make our victory BIG! :-D

Colorado: Who Needs All Those Mountains Anyway

The AP reports that the Republicans are slashing their spending at three Colorado television stations. That can't be a good sign for McCain, even though Colorado expects all four candidates in the state over the next several days.

National Republican Senatorial Committee assumes we will win the White House

The subtext in this ad is that the Democrats will control all the branches of government if Kay Hagan in North Carolina is elected to the Senate.

And now for Gallup...

Ugh.

All Registered Voters:
Obama 50%
McCain 43%

"Traditional" Likely Voter Model:
Obama 50%
McCain 46%

"Expanded" Likely Voter Model:
Obama 51%
McCain 45%

Well, at least this has been cancelled out so far by the other trackers showing a stable race or slight Obama gain. Most likely, we're just experiencing a noisy day with the trackers today.

McBush Pulling the Plug on Nevada to Dress Up Failin'?

Not yet... But they have cut back on their Nevada campaign. What shocks me the most is that they have yet to pay for & execute the live paid calls (you know, the "OSAMA OBAMA PALS AROUND WITH TERRORISTS!" bullshit) in Las Vegas that they ordered some two months ago.

So apparently, they can't afford to make the ugly attack calls in Vegas... But they can afford to buy $150,000 worth of ugly AND expensive clothes for Sarah Failin' at Saks, Neiman, Macy's, & Bloomingdales??!! Wow, talk about "fiscal conservatism" being thrown out the window!

But hey, if they'd rather play "Extreme Makeover" with Failin' than win Nevada, I'm happy with this. I'm sure Barack Obama awfully appreciates those extra 5 electoral votes. ;-)

GWU Battleground

OK, so today's numbers are in... And they don't look quite as screwy as yesterday.

Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 45%

Apparently to answer my own questions from yesterday, this poll is a five-weekday average... And the October 16 result is what's holding the overall numbers down. I guess we'll just have to wait for 10/16 to be flushed out before we can see a more realistic number from them.

Still, better news for us today. :-)

Obama in Richmond yesterday

Larry Sabato Hints at "The L Word"

Hardly any political reporter/analyst/pundit has the kind of reputation that Larry Sabato has. So for him to now openly suggest the possibility of a DEMOCRATIC LANDSLIDE is nothing short of breathtaking. Here's what he says will happen.

President:
Obama 318 EVs
McCain 171 EVs
Toss-up 49 EVs

In addition to all the Gore-Kerry states going to Obama, Democrats also have a BIG advantage in Iowa & New Mexico and have the edge in Colorado, Nevada, Virginia (just upgraded from "Toss-up"), and Florida. Only North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, and North Dakota (just upgraded from "Leans Republican") are still "Toss-ups".

Senate:

57 Democrats
41 Republicans
2 Toss-up

Larry Sabato notes that North Carolina & Oregon have now become "Lean Democratic Pick-ups" while Minnesota & Mississippi are the new "Toss-ups" and Georgia only barely "Leans Republican".

Feeling good? You should! Feeling complacent? You should NOT! Remember that the win on November 4 is only as BIG as we make it, so let's go out, work hard, and MAKE THIS WIN A LANDSLIDE!

Pro-America America vs. anti-America America

First trackers of the day

Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 52
McCain 45

The numbers yesterday and the day before were, 51-45.

Rasmussen observes:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That seven-point lead is Obama’s largest in nearly two weeks. This is also the first time since October 11 that the Democratic candidate has reached the 52% level of support, his highest total of the year.

Research 2000/Daily Kos reports this morning:

Obama 51
McCain 41

The numbers yesterday were the same, 51-41.

DemFromCT comments:

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +9 Mon, +12 Tues and +10 Wed. Today's polling will completely reflect Colin Powell's endorsement.

Zogby sees Obama's number essentially stable but McCain's dipping by two points from his position yesterday:

Obama 52
McCain 40

Yesterday, the numbers were 52-40. Zogby vouches for his sample by noting that he he believes other samples do not include enough of the young, Hispanics, and college-educated voters, demographics where Obama has real strength:

Democrat Barack Obama has slowly built a 12-point lead over Republican John McCain, consolidating support among young voters, Hispanics, and independent voters while McCain's support, even among his Republican base, is fading heading down the stretch.

Zogby also has some other interesting trends, particularly among those who already have voted:

Obama is leading by 29 points among independents, 22 points among those who have already voted, and also holds leads among every age demographic group. He holds a 50-point lead among voters under age 25.

Diageo Hotline reports their numbers this morning:

Obama 48
McCain 43

The numbers yesterday were 47-42.

Open the floodgates

Obama Leads All Midwestern States says the Big Ten Battleground Poll

Illinois
Obama 61
McCain 32

Indiana
Obama 51
McCain 41

Iowa
Obama 52
McCain 39

Ohio
Obama 53
McCain 41

Michigan
Obama 58
McCain 36

Minnesota
Obama 57
McCain 38

Pennsylvania
Obama 52
McCain 41

Wisconsin
Obama 53
McCain 40

National Lead
Obama 52
McCain 42

Quinnipiac takes the pulses of the three largest swing states:

Florida
Obama 49
McCain 44

Ohio
Obama 52
McCain 38

Pennsylvania
Obama 53
McCain 40

The "L" word appropriate to this post is, "landslide."

A word about early voting

Zogby says that Obama has a 22 percent lead among early voters. Gallup is tracking the number of people who already have voted, and he says 10 percent of all registered voters already have voted. In the past three elections, the percentages of voters who voted are these:

1996 58.4% of registered voters went to the polls
2000 59.5% of registered voters went to the polls
2004 63.8% of registered voters went to the polls

My guess is that we will remain at least even with 2004, but the historic nature of this election may bring out a still greater percentage of voters. If we assume that we will see the same rate of increase in 2008 over 2004 that we saw in 2004 over 2000, about 68.4% of registered voters will go the polls in 2008. These assumptions would suggest that somewhere between 14.6% and 15.7% of the electorate that will cast ballots already has voted.

If Zogby is correct about Obama's 22-point margin in early voting, it means he must have something like 61% of the early vote compared to 39% of McCain's early vote. These assumptions, and they are wild guesses, would indicate that Obama is wracking up totals in early voting that will allow his margin a lot of comfort for tightening in the national polls as we approach election day, should that occur.

California

PPIC has a new statewide poll out, and we have some BIG news being made.

The good news:

Obama (D) 56%
McCain (R) 33%

The not-so-good news:

Proposition 4 (mandated parental notification of teen abortion)-
Yes 46%
No 44%

The not-so-bad-but-still-not-good news:

Proposition 8 (same-sex marriage ban)-
Yes 44%
No 52%

If you're in California, please get to work to defeat Props 4 & 8! And no matter where you are, please help us win! As I've said before, PRESIDENT OBAMA IS NOT ENOUGH! We must also win the battles on the state level to make change happen.

Late Nite Open Thread

So wazzup, homies? Feeling good tonight? Let's talk. ;-)

More Happy News Tonight

More of our favorite unsavory Rethuglicans look to be in deep sh*t with less than two weeks left to turn the ship around. I love it. All these red districts are about to turn blue.

Remind me to make extra calls at the phone bank tomorrow night. ;-)

Brian Williams's Interview with McCain and Palin

Throwing another whack job to the wolves

If Michele Bachmann is the Whack Job Authentique, Marilyn Musgrave is the Whack Job Extraordinaire. Guess what. The Republican National Congressional Committee is pulling out of Musgrave's race just the same as it pulled today out of Bachmann's race. That's right. The RNCC is throwing its whack jobs to the wolves. The Colorado Independent reports:

In a surprise move, National Republican Congressional Committee canceled its TV advertising buy in the 4th Congressional District for the last week of the election on Wednesday in what some experts say is clear sign Republican incumbent Rep. Marilyn Musgrave’s re-election bid for a fourth term is at risk.

Purging the body politic of these two people will be a great step forward for the restoration of democracy in the United States.

Obama talks about his trip to visit his grandmother

Watch CBS Videos Online

Kentucky??!!

Who would ever guess that McCain could only cling onto a single digit lead in The Bluegrass State? Don't believe me? Believe Rasmussen!

McCain (R) 52%
Obama (D) 44%

Will Obama win Kentucky next month? Probably not. But does this prove McCain's terrible weakness in this and other supposed "Solid Red States"? HELL, YEAH!

Btw, I can hardly wait for Ras' new Indiana, Ohio, and West Virginia polls. ;-)

Brian Williams and Chuck Todd Reflect on McCain-Palin Interview

Aside from the fact that Palin once again has no clue what she's talking about, look at their body language. You see exactly what Williams and Todd were talking about:

Yay! Hillary Goes to Colorado!

She'll be in the Denver suburbs on Friday. That's what Jeralyn at TalkLeft is reporting. I only wish I could be there for that! ;-)

Republicans Concede Congress

Haha. This is hilarious. They're losing it... REALLY! Still, now's the perfect time to win as BIG as possible! ;-)

Recap of Today's Trackers

Essentially, we're now following six daily trackers, namely, in order of the release each day, Zogby, Research 2000/Daily Kos, Rasmussen, Hotline, Gallup Expanded Likely Voter Model, and Washington Post/ABC News. Today lined up this way:

Hotline, Obama +5
Rasmussen, Obama +6
Gallup Expanded Likely Voter Model, Obama +8
Zogby, Obama +10
R2K, Obama +10
WaPo/ABC, Obama +11

Talking Points Memo observes:

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.3%-43.1%, a lead of 8.2 points, compared to the 50.5%-43.1% Obama lead from yesterday.

In other words, Obama's lead increased from yesterday's results to today's by 0.8%.

Republicans are abandoning the Whack Job Authentique

The Scorecard at Politico is reporting that the National Republican Congressional Committee does not plan to spend any money on advertisements for the Whack Job Authentique Michele Bachmann who, in an unhinged interview, called for a revival of McCarthyism in the United States and accused Barack Obama of un-American beliefs. This comes in the face of her opponent Elwyn Tinklenberg raising a million dollars over the Internet and a promise by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to reserve an additional $1 million in advertising time.



Whack Job, we hardly knew ye'.

Tinklenberg for Congress:

ABC-WaPo Sez: No McSurge Here!

ABC-Washington Post is in the hizzy! And oooh yeah, it shizzles my bodizzle! ;-)

Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 43%

Oh yes, and what did they also say? That voters' confidence in Obama's ability to be Commander in Chief is now equal to that of Bill Clinton's in 1992? HELL TO THE YEAH!

And the McTrolls say McBush is in a "McSurge" because one outlier AP poll has f*cked up results with REALLY f*cked up internals? Eh, let 'em have their AP outlier. I'll take all the trackers reporting today... Even Zogby!

So should we get complacent? NO. But should we now worry about some nonexistent "McSurge"? NO! Keep working hard, and all these good polls will come true. ;-)

Update by DCDemocrat: The Post observes:

Former secretary of state Colin Powell's endorsement provides a new boost for Obama, who has made significant progress with voters as a leader in international affairs. But Obama also continues to be lifted by more fundamental advantages, including a 2 to 1 advantage on "helping the middle-class."

CNN: Obama maintains leads in key states

CNN is reporting new polls that show Barack Obama maintaining his lead in key states:

Nevada
Obama 51
McCain 46

North Carolina
Obama 51
McCain 47

Ohio
Obama 50
McCain 46

Virginia
Obama 54
McCain 44

West Virginia
McCain 53
Obama 44

CNN observes that McCain's attacks on Obama are missing their mark; voters remain unpersuaded by his accusations:

McCain's failure to move the needle in these four states likely reflects, in part, the fact that his latest attacks on Obama are not having much impact. Although a majority of voters in Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina had heard of Ayers and ACORN, less than a third of voters said such issues would affect their votes.

The polls were conducted between October 19 and October 21. Their standard errors ranged from 3.5 to 4 points.

Nevada Early Voting UPDATE

Nevada's premier political reporter & analyst, Jon Ralston, has an update on Nevada early voting in The Las Vegas Sun. Here's what he's saying today.

[... M]ore than 15,000 Democrats voted the first day, then about 12,000 the second and 13,000 the third. More important, for Beers and the GOP, everything is relative 5,700 Republicans voted Saturday, a little more than 5,000 on Sunday and about 6,000 on Monday. If that pathetic pace continues though it seems unlikely by the end of the 14-day early voting period, Republicans will be far enough behind to make Nov. 4 an afterthought.

The state Palin visited Tuesday has been overtaken by a Democratic registration tsunami that has put the GOP more than 100,000 voters behind statewide. And now, after three days of early voting, it appears Democrats have converted their registration machine into a turnout juggernaut, holding a 59 percent to 25 percent lead in Clark County in the early vote 56 percent to 29 percent, if mail ballots are counted.

That is nothing short of devastating if it holds up: no GOP Election Day machine, no voter suppression techniques, no wailing about ACORNs and Ayers can change that.

This is great news for us! The more Democrats vote and vote early, the less likely it is for Rethuglicans to steal the election for McBush-Failin'. That's why we must continue to drive Democrats to the polls NOW and why we must fight the GOP's efforts to supress the vote.

PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE DO WHATEVER YOU CAN TO HELP OBAMA WIN NEVADA!! See how you can help get out the vote! We're already winning The Silver State, so all we need to do now is seal the deal and make the victory as large as possible so that Dina Titus & Jill Derby are elected to Congress and so Democrats win both houses of the Legislature!

Oh yes, and please don't forget to donate while we can still make a difference! We can win Nevada and win here BIG! YES, WE CAN! :-)

McCain is busy nailing down Indiana

Marc Ambinder reports that just 13 days before the election, "The McCain campaign has decided to spend several hundred thousands dollars on a last-minute television buy in the state of Indiana." George Bush clobbered John Kerry in Indiana by 21 points. Barack Obama will stop in the Hoosier State on Thursday as he makes his way to Hawaii to visit his ailing grandmother.

Sarah Palin: A Threat to Polar Bears

Obama's a great

dancer.

"Michelle may be a better dancer than me, but I'm convinced I'm a better dancer than John McCain."--Barack Obama on "Ellen"

Is West Virginia Still Close?

The Rainmaker Group, a Democratic polling outfit, has released a new West Virginia poll. Here, take a look.

McCain (R) 42%
Obama (D) 41%

I figured these are good numbers to ruminate on while we all hold our collective breath for those shiny new CNN-Time swing state polls to be released this afternoon. I wonder if they'll also show West Virginia as a toss-up. Perhaps I was a little too fast to give up on The Mountaineer State. ;-)

Another Republican Admits Defeat!

Haha. Another Republican jumps ship before the USS McBush-Failin' goes the way of the Titanic. This just gets funnier and funnier to watch. ;-)

The S Word

Jon Stewart nails that great socialist leader, John McCain, for precisely the charge he levels against Barack Obama.

Fox News Sees Strong Obama Lead

A Fox News Poll finds that Obama leads McCain by nine points among likely voters:

Obama 49
McCain 40

Key findings include:

Eighty-eight percent of Democrats support Obama, and 83 percent of Republicans back McCain. Independents break 44 percent to 35 percent in Obama's favor.

In addition to independents, white Catholics are another important swing voting group and they support Obama 50 percent to 39 percent. White Catholics have voted for the winner in each of the last four presidential elections.

New voters — people who have registered to vote in the last two years — back Obama by 51 percent to 40 percent.

The margin in this poll is two points greater than the margin in their last poll, released October 10. That poll shows Obama over McCain 46-39.

Gallup Daily

Gallup Daily is out for Wednesday, October 22:

Registered Voters
Obama 51
McCain 42

McCain's number in this metric yesterday where the numbers were 52-41.

Expanded Likely Voter Model (Intent to vote)
Obama 52
McCain 44

Yesterday, the expanded likely voter model showed a 52-42 spread, so Obama has stayed the same as McCain moved up slightly. Yesterday's 10-point spread in this model is now an eight-point spread

Traditional Likely Voter Model (Intent and past behavior)
Obama 50
McCain 45

Yesterday, the traditional model showed only a seven-point split, 51-44; it's now a five-point spread.

The movement today likely represents noise in the data, but Obama enjoys a lead in all three models, with his lead in the expanded likely voter model about equal to his lead in the registered voter model.

And al-Qaeda Endorses...

John McCain for President! Why? Because he would be "a faithful son of Bush" who would continue the destruction of America!

I wonder when the McBush-Failin' campaign will start touting this lovely new endorsement from this terrorist group...

GWU Battleground Reports

Oh, my!

Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 43%

Obama gained 1% from yesterday while McCain dropped 4%. Overall, this means Obama's lead in this poll has grown from a measly +1% to a more significant +6%. It's nice to see GWU Battleground catch up with all the other pollsters today. ;-)

UPDATE: HUH??!! OK, I just saw the "trendline" page & noticed that they show the numbers as 49-47 for Obama. I'll double-check, but it looks to me that one page has one set of numbers while another page has a different set of numbers. I'm confused.

First trackers of the day

We're gonna have bright, bright, bright sun shiny days!

Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 51
McCain 45

The numbers yesterday and the day before were, 50-46, that is, Obama's number improved by one and McCain's declined by one.

Rasmussen observes:

The stability of Obama’s advantage in recent weeks suggests that it will be difficult for McCain to change the dynamic before the results are finally set in stone.

Research 2000/Daily Kos reports this morning:

Obama 51
McCain 41

The number over the last couple of day were 50-42.

DemFromCT comments:

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +8 Sun, +9 Mon and +12 Tues.

Zogby sees McCain's number remaining stable but Obama's rising by two points from his position yesterday:

Obama 52
McCain 42

Yesterday, the numbers were 50-42. Zogby sees Obama's strength coming from his dominance among Democrat and independents while he holds his own among Republicans:

Obama leads McCain by 15 points among independent voters (50% to 35%), and is also winning 12% of the Republican vote, all the while retaining a firm grip on his Democratic base, winning 87% support from members of his own party.

Zogby also has some other interesting trends that indicate our reason for hope is based in reality:

Time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter . . . . If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment.

Diageo Hotline reports their numbers this morning:

Obama 47
McCain 42

The numbers yesterday were 47-41. Today's numbers put the spread back to where they were two days ago, suggesting the ongoing stability of Obama's lead.

I think we are beginning to see that Colin Powell's endorsement went a long way to reassuring Americans that Barack Obama is worthy of our trust.

Biden on fire!

Biden attacks McCain's sleazy robo-slime. Meanwhile, Barack Obama's campaign takes on John McCain's robo-slime with a new robocall of its own. Not just classy: it's incredibly smart.

psssst . . . . Do something!

Help spread the truth about ACORN by sending this video from Brave New Films to all the people you know and asking them to forward it to their friends.

The Whack Job Authentique's Campaign Losing Its Wheels

Unhinged Whack Job Authentique Michele Bachmann is having real problems after she called Barack Obama un-American and demanded investigations into the patriotism of Democrats in Congress. So what's the title of the Christian Scientist Monitor story on her campaign problems? "Bachmann’s campaign implodes — anti-Americans run wild." And how does The Fix describe the race? “Bachmann Goes Boom!”

The Washington Post this morning reports that Elwyn Tinklenberg has raised more than a million dollars since the Whack Job Authentique appeared on "Hardball" last week.

Here's his first ad. See what your money is doing to make our Congress ever more blue:



Put Michele Bachmann out of our collective misery. As a sign of your desire to have the Whack Job Authentique go to her well-deserved retirement:

1. Sign the petition asking Congress to censure Michele Bachmann.

2. Donate to Whack Job's Democratic opponent, Elwyn Tinklenberg, to defeat her and replace her as the congressman from Minnesota's sixth District come the November Election.

Sarah's wardrobe

Politco reports that the Republican National Committee has spent $150,000 to dress Sarah Palin and her family. Saks Fifth Avenue got $49,425.74. In September in Minneapolic, there was a $75,062.63 "spending spree" at Neiman Marcus. The RNC sprung for $4,716.49 in hair and makeup in September.



Aside from the legality of these expenditures, Marc Ambinder is reporting there is a political price tag: Republicans apparently are livid over these expenses. Ambinder reports:

Republicans, RNC donors and at least one RNC staff member have e-mailed me tonight to share their utter (and not-for-attribution) disgust at the expenditures.

Ambinder notes that we Democrats will have a field day with the story, but he believes the RNC will pay the greatest price in the ire of the members of the Republican Party.

Ipsos-McClatchy Sez: No "McSurge"

So for all the media hype late last week of a "McSurge", this week's round of polls shows no good news for McCain. And really, it has to be called lame that "good news for McCain" means a poll showing him down by high single digits, far outside the margin of error. So yes, let's take a look at tonight's new Ipsos-McClatchy Poll.

Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 42%

Obama has an advantage on the economy, health care, energy, and much more. McCain's still ahead on national security, but the gap is narrowing. Obama's approval rating continues to rise while McCain's falls some more.

And this is "good news for McCain"? Maybe in La-la-land. ;-)

Tuesday Strategy Session: What We Can Do

In case you've lost track of time, we only have two weeks left to make a difference in this election. So what can we do? Well, let me tell you about what I did last weekend.

In addition to my local walking, I also made phone calls to Nevada. Other than door to door, face to face contact, the best way to reach voters is by way of volunteer phone calls. Yes, that's right. Better than robocalls, better than mailers, better than teevee or radio ads... Calling works! And last weekend, I was able to do just that in calling Nevada. I talked to undecided voters, I reminded Obama supporters to vote early, and I may have been able to convince people that weren't originally planning to vote to vote early.

This is why it's critical for us to keep working right now. And especially now, it's critical for us to reach voters in the swing states and GET THEM OUT TO VOTE! The Obama campaign has made it easy for us to help. All we need to do is visit my.barackobama.com and either sign up to call online and/or sign up for a physical phonebank.

It's simple. It's easy. And best yet, IT WORKS! Please make the calls for Obama and help Democrats win!

At Least She'll Have a Job After the Election

Well, we need not worry about Sarah Palin's well being after the election. SNL Creator Lorne Michaels has the solution: Give Sarah Palin her own sitcom! Yeah, how about having her star in a spin-off of "30 Rock"? Or better yet, how about getting ABC to add her to the line-up of "Desperate Housewives"?

I think Sarah Palin will be a perfect fit for Wisteria Lane. :-D

NBC-WSJ Poll: Obama Surges!

McSurge? McGone! The new NBC-Wall Street Journal poll is out, and my, oh my, we have changes! Unfortunately for McCain, they do NOT favor him!

Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 42%

Fortunately for us, everything seems to be moving in Barack Obama's direction according to NBC-WSJ. His & Biden's favorables are up. McCain's & Palin's favorables keep falling. Obama voters are voting for Obama while McCain voters are voting against Obama. Obama now holds advantages on nearly all the issues and is making up ground in formerly weak areas like "tough on terrorism".

Remember that the last NBC-WSJ poll from 10/06 had Obama +6. So to go from +6 to +10 in two weeks with only two weeks to go until the election means we're solidifying a strong lead. We're almost there... Keep it up! :-D

New Obama Ad: Erratic McCain

I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message. Senator McCain and Governor Palin talk about experience, a steady hand but in this economic crisis, but it's McCain who's careened from stance to stance, been erratic, poured gasoline on the economic mess, all while promising more failed policies that give tax breaks to big corporations but almost nothing to the middle class. Yes, McCain's been erratic. What he hasn't been is on your side.

Who can keep up with it?

Wall Street Journal/NBC sees it this way:

Obama 52
McCain 42

Peter Hart, the Democratic poll taker who works with a Republican on the poll, observes:

Voters have reached a comfort level with Barack Obama. The doubts and question marks have been erased.

Pfriend or pfoe?

We cannot falter. We cannot stop. We cannot take a single vote for granted.

Hit the streets and make the calls.

Hillary sent you!

Take our country back!

(Hillary Clinton talks about voting early in Orlando, Florida.)

And finally...

The Investors' Business Daily-TIPP Tracker:

Obama 47%
McCain 41%

I just calculated the eight tracker average (Zogby, Research 2000, Rasmussen, Diageo-Hotline, GWU Battleground, Gallup Daily, IBD-TIPP, and ABC-Washington Post), and indeed Obama's lead has risen to +6.5%. Again, GWU looks like today's outlier as they showed a tightening race. Rasmussen and ABC-WaPo, on the other hand, showed no change. Research 2000, Diageo-Hotline, Zogby, Gallup, and IBD-TIPP, meanwhile, all showed Obama growing his lead.

Overall, it looks like we've had a good day today. ;-)

Last tracker of the day

The last tracker of the day is in. The Washington Post shows Obama lead by nine points (±3%):

Obama 53%
McCain 44%

These are the same numbers from yesterday.

So this is the summary from the day:

Rasmussen, Obama +4
Hotline, Obama +6
Research 2000/Daily Kos, Obama +8
Zogby, Obama +8
Washington Post/ABC, Obama +9
Gallup Expanded Likely Voter Model, Obama +10

Talking Points Memo comments:

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.5%-43.1%, a lead of 7.4 points, compared to the 50.5%-43.7% Obama lead from yesterday, when the ABC/WaPo numbers are included in yesterday's total.

In other words, Obama may have increased his lead by 0.6 from yesterday.

Want to Talk More Congress?

I'm at Swing State Project now. Want to join me? ;-)

Pew Poll: Obama knocking off McCain's socks

A new Pew Poll of likely voters finds Barack Obama enjoys a significant advantage over John McCain:

Obama 52
McCain 38

The poll was conducted over landlines and cell phone between October 16 and October 19. The poll had a huge sample: 2,382 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5%. Pew notes:

A widespread loss of confidence in McCain appears to be the most significant factor in the race at this point. Many more voters express doubts about McCain’s judgment than about Obama’s: 41% see McCain as “having poor judgment."

Here are excellent reasons to vote Republican

Real America: Wasilla Main Street

A primer on the tracking polls

Nate Silver at 538.com has written a primer on all you need to know about the eight tracking polls that are out in the field. For each one, he includes:

1. When it publishes;
2. Basic methodology;
3. Track record;
4. Features and strengths; and
5. Quirks and concerns.

It's a nice read and a thorough overview.

The Truth About ACORN

It's about time you know. It's about time we all know. We now have all the facts on ACORN.

Please spread the word.

Florida, Florida, Florida!!!

It was all about The Sunshine State in 2000... And PPP hints that it may be all about this state again in 2008.

Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 47%

Still, there's a difference this year. Unlike Gore & Kerry in the past, Obama does not need Florida to win. Still, this state is critical for us to win. Why?

I have a hunch that what happens in Florida may determine how big of a win Democrats have on November 4. If Obama narrowly loses Florida & Democrats stay even (probably trading in FL-16 for FL-24) or pick up just one net House seat, I think we'll probably be in for a comfortable but still fairly close 3-6%, ~300 EV Obama win along with a moderate 5-7 Senate seat pickup & 10-20 House seat pickup. Not bad, and I certainly won't cry. But still, we may later grumble about missed opportunities.

But if Obama wins Florida & Democrats pick up a net 2-4 House seats here, expect a landslide. Because Florida's run consistently slightly behind the national average, an Obama win here on November 4 will likely mean a larger 6-12% popular vote & 330+ EV national Obama landslide win AND a hearty 7-10 Senate seat pickup & 20-30 House seat pickup. Now do you see what I mean?

Florida makes the difference between a narrower Democratic victory & a wider Democratic victory. While I'm satisfied with either scenario, I obviously want us to work as hard as possible to win as BIG as possible. Now's our chance, so let's take it! :-D

And now, Gallup...

Gallup Daily is in, and they have some pleasant news to cheer us up.

All Registered Voters:
Obama 52%
McCain 41%

"Traditional" Likely Voter Model:
Obama 51%
McCain 44^

"Expanded" Likely Voter Model:
Obama 52%
McCain 42%

Because we at C4O have concluded that Gallup's "expanded" likely voter model is the most likely of Gallup's voter turnout scenarios, we include that model in our tracking poll average. And so far, the six poll (Zogby, Research 2000, Rasmussen, Diageo-Hotline, GWU Battleground, and Gallup Daily's expanded likely voter model) mean average has Obama gaining a little ground with a +6.17% lead. Other than GWU's obvious Obama +1 outlier, all the others have Obama either holding steady or gaining ground.

And yes, I will update this into an eight poll average later today when IBD-TIPP and ABC-WaPo provide their numbers for today. ;-)

No, It's NOT "Black Racism"!

I really think John Ridley at The Huffington Post did a good job this morning of putting an end to the false rumor being spread by Rush Limbaugh's Dittoheads PUMA McTrolls that Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama last weekend was entirely "ALL ABOUT RACE!!!!" & that African-Americans are always "racist" in only supporting African-American candidates.

Uh huh. So why didn't Al Sharpton or Carol Mosely Braun win the DC Primary in 2004? Why didn't African-American voters cross party lines in droves to vote for Alan Keyes in 1996 & 2000? Why didn't Jesse Jackson win the majority of the Afro-American vote in 1984 or 1988?

Obviously, black voters don't support black candidates "just because they're black". If that were the case, Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN) should have lost his Congressional race in the majority-black Memphis district in 2006 to Harold Ford's brother... But he didn't! Yes, believe it or not, black voters choose the best candidate, just like all the rest of us. And when we remember this, that only confirms what Colin Powell said himself on Sunday.

So there, another "PUMA McTroll myth" debunked for today! ;-)

Wow.

Barack Obama on Sunday in Saint Louis speaks to 100,000 supporters. A thing of beauty.

PPP: Obama leads in Indiana

Public Policy Polling suggests that Obama hold a slight lead in Indiana:

Obama 48
McCain 46

PPP observes:

New voters are going for Obama at a clip of 68-24, allowing him to overcome a 48-45 lead John McCain has with folks who did vote in the last Presidential election.

Obama plans to stop in Indiana on Thursday as he makes his way to Hawaii to visit his ailing grandmother.

Email from Wexler on the Election in Florida

Congressman Wexler has sent out the following email:

I saw it with my own eyes: The Bush and GOP machine stole the 2000 election and the presidency in Florida (not to mention Ohio in 2004) and the results have been catastrophic for our nation and the world.

Don't take my word for it - read the dissent of Supreme Court Justices Stevens, Breyer and Ginsberg in the absurd legal decision of Bush v. Gore: "Although we may never know with complete certainty the identity of the winner of this year's Presidential election, the identity of the loser is perfectly clear. It is the Nation's confidence in the judge as an impartial guardian of the rule of law."

Back in 2000, in Florida, I witnessed the votes of World War II veterans thrown away and GOP thugs bully the Miami Dade elections office into stopping a recount. I swore to myself that never again would the votes of Americans be thrown away and replaced by the votes of appointed judges. Following the 2000 election, I spent 7 years fighting to remove the DIEBOLD electronic machines from Florida and to install a voter verified paper trail which we accomplished last year.

I have bad news: They are trying again to silence our votes.

Most people associate the 2000 election with paper "chads" and the Supreme Court's tragic decision. Yet the voter suppression in 2000 went way beyond not counting votes – from illegal roadblocks near minority precincts to the complete purging of legitimate voters from the rolls through what is called "voter caging "– the practice of using databases to improperly delete voters.

Now, we are seeing signs of voter caging again in both Michigan and Florida.

In Michigan, the state is using a list of foreclosures to purge voters (many of which are still legitimate voters in their districts).

In Florida, my home state, the Republican led Supervisor of Elections is aggressively applying a new law designed to limit voter fraud by summarily deleting voters who might have – as part of a clerical error – a different driver's license or social security number than was put in the database.

If legitimate, legal voters are denied access to the voting booth – we risk a repeat of 2000, in multiple states.

We must remain vigilant, not just in defense of our economy, but in defense of our rights as Americans.

I am working with my colleagues in Congress to call attention to this matter, but I encourage you to contact your state elections supervisor and demand that they allow every person who claims to be a legitimate voter to submit a provisional ballot.

There is a system in every state to deal with provisional ballots – to verify their legitimacy after the fact.

Voter caging is a threat to our (already challenged) democratic principles. Please join me and pass this email along to spread the word.

If you have not already signed up at Wexler for Congress, and would like to be on this list, please sign up today.

Sincerely,
Congressman Robert Wexler

What We've Done

Barack Obama has more cash on hand than both the McBush campaign AND the RNC COMBINED! And when we combine Obama's cash on hand with the DNC's cash on hand, Democrats have a $27 million advantage over the Rethuglicans in this final month of the election! Thanks to our donations, for the first time in an eternity Democrats have the advantage.

Yay! ;-)

First trackers of the day

The one thing we do not lack now is data. In some ways, there just seems to be too much of it, but here goes.

Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 50
McCain 46

The numbers yesterday were exactly the same, 50-46.

Rasmussen observes:

The race has remained very stable over the past month and Obama’s support has not dipped below 50% in nearly a month

Research 2000/Daily Kos reports this morning:

Obama 50
McCain 42

These numbers yesterday were the same, 50-42.

DemFromCT comments:

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +7 Sat, +8 Sun and +9 Mon. Today's polling will not completely reflect Colin Powell's endorsement (or the less important but still politically potent announcement of Obama's 150 million Sep. fundraiser) but reflective data on that is included for today's poll.

Zogby sees McCain dropping a couple of points from his position yesterday:

Obama 50
McCain 42

Yesterday, the numbers were 50-44. Zogby sees Obama's strength coming from his dominance among Democrat and independents while he holds his own among Republicans:

Obama leads McCain by 15 points among independent voters (50% to 35%), and is also winning 12% of the Republican vote, all the while retaining a firm grip on his Democratic base, winning 87% support from members of his own party.

Zogby also has some other interesting trends that indicate our reason for hope is based in reality:

Obama leads by 21 points among those who have already voted, and also maintains a large lead among those who have registered to vote just in the last six months. He leads by two points among men and by 13 among women. He also leads in all but one age demographic - those aged 55-69 - where McCain has a scant one-point edge.

Hotline also sees Obama's lead over McCain expanding in this morning's numbers:

Obama 47
McCain 41

The numbers yesterday were 47-41.

Two polls show the race constant with yesterday. Two polls show Obama gaining a slight advantage. Doubtless, new data are on the way, so I'll opine more as the day goes along.