Saturday, September 20, 2008
Poet and author Dr. Maya Angelou introduces Michelle Obama at a Women for Obama rally in Greensboro, North Carolina.
But in the mean time, what do you want to talk about? ;-)
Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking (bold mine), would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation.And Obama takes on McCain for his every bizarre economic proposal articulated in this campaign, and especially over the last several days. Look at our nominee set forth today a compelling economic case why John McCain should not be president:
Like Senator Obama says, you can't make this stuff up.
The Research 2000/Daily Kos numbers had Obama and McCain in comparable territory:
Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation.Why? 'Cuz we're on a roll - we're on a wild ride.
Rasmussen observes, "While Obama’s lead is statistically insignificant, it is the first time he has held even a single-point advantage in a week-and-a-half. One week ago today, McCain was up by three points."
Research 2000/Daily Kos sees the race differently:
Their analysis of the race yesterday was that it was a seven point spread, and of course, today, it is an eight-point spread. So, Rasmussen and Research 2000 seem to agree that, whatever the difference in their numbers, Obama is moving up.
The Los Angeles Times yesterday reported:
The 3.2-mile-long partially paved "road to nowhere" meanders from a small international airport on Gravina Island, home to 50 people, ending in a cul-de-sac close to a beach.If this isn't earmark profligacy of the first magnitude, I don't know what is.
Crews are working to finish it. But no one knows when anyone will need to drive it.
That's because the $26-million road was designed to connect to the $398-million Gravina Island Bridge, more infamously known as the "bridge to nowhere." Alaskan officials thought federal money would pay for the bridge, but Gov. Sarah Palin killed the project after it was ridiculed and Congress rescinded the money. Plans for the road moved forward anyway.
It is said that Gertrude Stein once observed of her hometown, "There's no there there." It is absolutely certain that we may say the same thing about where the new road leads, that is, "There's no there there." And it perhaps has become apparent to many of us that Stein's comment is equally applicable to Palin. There's no there there. I think putting Barack Obama and Joe Biden in the White House is the most important project on the national agenda, but second to it is the project of keeping Sarah Palin as far away from the White House as Wassila is from Washington. Fortunately, the second project is the obverse side of the coin: doing one thing gets us the other.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Obama was in Coral Gables, Florida today, and he had a lot to say about his awareness of the obstacles that face women and why it concerns him:
This isn’t just about politics for me; this is personal because I come here today not just as a candidate for president but as a son and a grandson, as a husband and a father who’s seen first hand, throughout my life, the challenges so many women face everyday in this country.It's a very good speech. I recommend it to you. Obama observes that what hurts women in this country hurts all of us, whether or not we're women. He calls not just for the bailout of the fat cats in the financial markets but a bailout for the folks who live on Main Street, too. He critiques the people who blow it and walk away with millions of dollars in golden parachutes while the rest of us are left holding the bag. He disparages those who talk about family values but when family have needs stand by in silence. Like I said, it's a very good speech.
We did not arrive at this crisis by some accident of history. What led us to this point was years and years of a philosophy in Washington and on Wall Street that viewed even common-sense regulation and oversight as unwise and unnecessary; that shredded consumer protections and loosened the rules of the road. CEOs and executives got reckless. Lobbyists got what they wanted. Politicians in both parties looked the other way until it was too late. And it is the American people who have paid the price. The events of this week have rendered a final verdict on that failed philosophy, and it will end if I am President of the United States. We must build upon the ideas I have laid out over the last several years about how to modernize our financial regulation in this country, and establish commonsense rules of the road for our financial system to help restore confidence in our financial system.
While his speech may seem "post-partisan" at first glance, read it again to see what Obama is really saying. He's actually placing the blame for this crisis directly where it should be: on the failed Reagan-Bush-McCain "supply side, trickle down, laissez-faire" philosophy of governance. For decades, the GOP has scared us with their "tax and spend lib'rul!" dogma while they've practiced a "Reverse Robin Hood" way of stealing from the working class to bequeath upon the oligarchs.
Even during President Clinton's years in the White House, the Republicans were sometimes able to scare him into submission by using cheap political tactics to get their way and deregulate the market even more. And ever since Bush II has been in office, too many Democrats have still been too afraid to actually challenge him on his economic record. So for Barack Obama to actually stand up and call out the Republicans for what they've done to cause this crisis, good on him.
I just hope we don't see Obama lose his voice ever again this year. If he wants to win, he needs to continue pointing out how McCain is more of the same economic failure, and how Obama will bring about real change that will not only undo what Bush broke, but also bring about economic justice by restoring our middle class and the safeguards that protect it. Obama's on the right track now, and I hope this is only the beginning.
Diageo/Hotline doesn't have its poll for today up on its web site, but Talking Points Memo lists today's results as:
So there is a little static in the daily tracking polls today. Research 2000 and Gallup indicate Obama is extending his lead; Rasmussen says the race is staying even; and Diageo/Hotline, if these numbers are correct, says the race has tightened.
Btw, here are the new Marist Battleground Polls (via TPM):
The bad news: I can't see any.
The good news: This is another poll out this week that shows Obama slightly in Ohio, so it looks like the current financial turmoil may be helping to swing The Buckeye State back toward Obama. Meanwhile, the new polls from Michigan and Pennsylvania are truly welcome news. With other polls from earlier this week (conducted before the Lehman-Merrill-AIG crisis made headlines) suggesting a VERY tight race in these two states, Marist now suggests that like Ohio, the recent financial crisis may be moving Michigan & Pennsylvania back into Obama's column.
Conclusion: With Marist now chiming in, we can safely conclude that Ohio is DEFINITELY a "toss-up state" that we can win. And while I'm not yet ready to conclude that we're all clear in Michigan & Pennsylvania, it does look like Obama still has a slight edge in these Blue States we need to keep blue. Overall, the states of the race look good up in Great Lakes Country. :-)
Research 2000 Tracking:
OK, it looks like these two polls are really diverging. Rasmussen shows a stable tie while Research 2000 shows a strong Obama lead. So who's right? We can't answer that, but we can shed some light on why the numbers are so different.
Basically, Rasmussen weights its number with Party ID while Research 2000, Diageo-Hotline, and Gallup don't. Diageo-Hotline and Rasmussen have also recently adjusted their samples to include more Republicans, so that can also explain why Rasmussen's numbers lately seem to be favoring McCain.
So what do all these polls mean? Well, they all confirm that the "McSurge" is completely gone while Obama's made his comeback. The renewed focus on the economy has really given Barack Obama his second wind, as he's making a connection with voters while McCain's many gaffes just remind voters that he's the self-proclaimed "non-expert on the economy". As long as the election remains focused less on personality-driven "scandaliciousness" and more on how we'll handle real problems like the economic downturn, Obama has the advantage.
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 40%
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 43%
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 42%
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 46%
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 41%
The bad news: OK, let's start with Strategic Vision. They're a Republican polling firm, so I'm not too surprised that they show some fairly ugly numbers in Washington and New Jersey. If other polls confirm this, we can start worrying. Otherwise, they're most likely outliers.
The good news: Now, let's move on to those Portland Tribune poll. The new Oregon poll contradicts Rasmussen's small 4 point lead for Obama, but it also goes a little beyond the other polls showing a 7-9 point advantage for Obama. So most likely, the race is somewhere between Rasmussen and Portland Tribune. This would most likely mean Oregon's now leaning Democratic (as in no longer a toss-up state), and perhaps Obama's reason to continue campaigning here is to help downballot (like Jeff Merkley for Senate).
And finally, Insider Advantage... Yowzer! Their Virginia poll shows a tiny McCain lead, which mostly falls in line with other polls of this state (a range of McCain +2 to Obama +4). However, their Colorado poll looks quite surprising. No other poll of this state has shown either Obama or McCain with a double-digit advantage, so I'm a little tempted to call this an outlier. But since Insider Advantage usually has a good track record, I don't want to just flippantly dismiss them... Let's wait to see if other polls confirm their findings.
Conclusion: Whoa! ;-)
This new ad for Barack Obama comes out swinging. As it notes that John McCain admits he doesn’t understand the economy, it asks who advises him. Then it answers that questions with three names: Carly Fiorina, “the fired CEO who got a $42 million golden parachute”; Phil Gramm, “the ex-Senator who pushed through deregulation, and called Americans hurt by this economy ‘whiners’”; and George Bush “whose disastrous policies McCain wants to continue.” The ad concludes with two messages: “They think the economy is fundamentally strong. We know they’re fundamentally wrong.”
The ad is interesting because it attacks McCain in areas where the Republicans are weakest. There is a goodly amount of resentment in the country against CEOs who screw up their companies only to reap multimillion dollar severance packages. There is a sense that the Republican Congress's abandonment of responsibility led to the current crisis. And we all know how all of us feel about the clown who has pretended to president the last eight years.
The ad justly but ferociously ties McCain to each of them.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
My perspective is that the ticket is Mr. Obama and Mr. Biden that they have the breadth of experience, I think they are prudent, they are knowledgeable. We just can’t use four more years of the same kind of policy that’s somewhat hazardous which leads to recklessness.Gilchrest, who has opposed the war in Iraq, lost his primary bid this year in the Republican primary.
Last week, I began analyzing the state of the races out West. And ever since then, I've received feedback about me not including all the competitive races out here. And to all of you fretting, I say... Don't worry!
Because we have so many opportunities to not just pick up electoral votes for Obama, but also additional House and Senate seats, I just couldn't pack them all into one diary. So today, without further adieu, I give you Part 2 of "On Winning the West"!
OK, there's no denying it. Colorado is one of the top swing states this year. Colorado is one of our best opportunities outside of New Mexico for a Western pick-up this year, but it's also a state where the Republicans are going for broke as they're doing everything they can to prevent us from turning the state blue. But because we have the facts, the issues, and the momentum on our side, we have a great opportunity to not just turn Colorado blue on the Presidential level, but also make the state's Congressional Delegation bluer as well.
Mark Udall is currently a Member of Congress representing the Boulder area, and he's the Democrat running for Senate here. Udall has a strong record of standing up for the values we believe in as well as working across the aisle to make change happen. He's been a leader on energy and environmental issues, and he's really the perfect fit for Coloradans on the issues they care about most. Despite a recent barrage of ugly attacks, Udall has the edge in this race. Still, our friends at the DSCC are taking the GOP threat seriously... And we should, too. As long as we have Udall's back, we can win here.
Another great opportunity for us in Colorado lies with Betsy Markey in the state's 4th Congressional District. This area has traditionally been more Republican-leaning, but that's quickly changing. The incumbent anti-environment, anti-choice, anti-gay, anti-immigrant, anti-working-class Marilyn Musgrave is so extremist that she couldn't even get 50% last time she ran for reelection. And already, Markey has taken the lead in the last indpendent poll done in the district. So far, it looks like the people here would rather see someone who's ready to work for them like Betsy Markey rather than face another two years with Musgrave. And with the DCCC and EMILY'S List making a move here, we know this is a real race that we can win.
Now I know we can win Oregon for Obama. It's a pretty reliably blue state, although the polls are often close here. With some hard work and a strong message, we can not only keep Oregon blue for Obama... But also send another Democrat to the Senate!
Jeff Merkley is the Democrat running for Senate here. He has a strong record as Oregon's State House Speaker of bringing all sides to the table to pass legislation that has made a difference in people's lives while still holding true to his progressive values. That's why a multitude of progressive advocates, such as Oregon's labor unions, the Sierra Club, the League of Conservation Voters, Planned Parenthood PAC, and NARAL Pro-Choice America have all endorsed Merkley. Now the Republican incumbent Gordon Smith may claim to be "bipartisan", but we know he's just another Bush-Cheney-McCain enabler. The polls here may be close, but withour help and the DSCC's help Merkley can win.
So will you join us in helping these good Democrats win? We can win the West... As long as we stand up and fight! So will you fight with us? If we want change, we need to suppport it and work for it. So come on, let's bring some positive change to the West! :-)
On Monday, I talked a little about what's at stake in this election. And today, I'd like to expand on that some more. Now that the stupid scandals are gone and we're all focusing again on the economy, now's the perfect time.
When John McCain talk about "change", he talks about some supposedly high-minded concept of "reform". Now of course, McCain has never actually supported any effort to regulate the financial sector and curb the runaway "laissez-faire" madness that threw us into this nmess in the first place. He's never supported reforming our trade agreements to make them fairer for our workers. He's never taken real action to help us working people afford good health care or avoid losing our homes to foreclosure. But now that his poll numbers are dropping like Lehman Brothers' stock price on Monday, he's now embracing the "reform" mantle. But no matter how much McCain talks "reform", we can't believe it.
Why not? Well, let's look at the facts. McCain's "plan to clean up Wall Street" basically consists of appointing a commission to "study what went wrong". Huh?! Don't we all now know what went wrong? McCain's good buddy Phil Gramm pushed to deregulate the financial sector, and he stood by and supported those efforts. McCain's other good pal, George W. Bush, pushed to loosen up regulations even further, basically creating an environment where mortgage lenders could devise ridiculous schemes to entrap borrowers in loans they couldn't really afford while institutional investment banks could pounce upon these subprime mortgages, claim them as "hard assets" as good as cash. If we had the regulations intact that had once set rules for the institutional investment houses, the commercial banks, and the mortgage lenders, we wouldn't be in this debacle today.
But now, John McCain wants us to forget his role in creating the problems he claims he can solve. He wants us to forget that he's supported the Bush Agenda over 90% of the time. He wants us to forget that his chief economic adviser only thinks of us working class people as "a nation of whiners". McCain wants us to forget that even though he's consistently stood with Bush in opposing common-sense regulation of Wall Street, equal pay for women for their equal work, real solutions for affordable and accessible health care, and creating new, well paying "green-collar jobs" that would revitalize our economy while helping us solve the climate crisis, that somehow McCain is different from Bush.
Fortunately, Hillary and Joe remind us of the real truth on McCain:
Can we afford to forget all of that? Can we afford the "change" John McCain offers us? Bush is doing nothing now to help us working people survive the financial meltdown, yet all McCain offers is some silly "commission to investigate" what we already know went wrong. We continue to lose good jobs to unfair trade agreements, but McCain has no plan to fix these broken trade agreements and no plan to create new and better jobs for our workers. McCain seems more interested in pleasing his neoconservative and economic royalist friends than enacting an agenda that helps people survive. Barack Obama got it right when he made his point on how his plan of action offers real help and real change over the Bush-McCain plan for more of the same.
Simply put, John McCain offers "change" we can't afford. He only offers more of the same Bush-Cheney ideology when we need practical solutions. And if we want this nation to recover and our economy to work for working people again, we can't afford more of the same. We need
real change that we can count on.
Now I know times are tough, and many of us can't afford to give much of our money or our time. That's OK, as there is plenty we can do to make real change happen. Tell your friends who are still considering McCain that he's not the "maverick" he claims to be. Spend a few minutes tonight making some calls or writing a letter. And if you can, please donate whatever you can to help Democrats win this fall. I donated $15 myself this week, and I'll continue to give whatever I can to make sure we have a President and a Congress that will put working people first, not corporate lobbyists. I hope you'll join me.
But above all else, I hope you see the truth for yourself and I hope you join me in bringing about the change we need.
The average of today's four tracking polls, then, is:
That's an average 3.5 lead.
The other poll in this, which has been cut off, is for Virginia:
There was a two point spread yesterday. Today, it's four points. Says Gallup, confirming the observation that is becoming the common wisdom:
The presidential race has essentially devolved back to a structure very similar to what pertained throughout the months of June and July, during which time Obama consistently averaged a three percentage point lead over McCain.
What exactly is our risk that Sarah Palin will become president?
Riordan said the Illinois senator was by far the best choice for the White House and the only one with the intellect to shepherd the country through troubled economic times. "He's extremely bright and energetic, and he's a guy who gets things done," said Riordan, who was a successful venture capitalist before he was elected mayor in 1993, serving two terms.
Riordan criticized GOP presidential nominee John McCain's past support for financial deregulation, saying it helped trigger the mortgage crisis and subsequent economic downturn. "There's nothing in his background that shows he's a person who can understand these complicated economic issues, or shows that he is entrepreneurial enough to bring about change."
Riordan is really onto something. And really, he should know. He's actually been successful with his business (unlike,
I think he's right, and now's the time for Barack Obama. :-)
I like pollster.com the most because it does not treat all samples equally and uses statistical methods to make data from different poll comparable to each other. Pollster.com yesterday observed that the totality of national polling data is trending toward Obama:
Real Clear Politics yesterday gave McCain an advantage of 0.7 in its average of polls. Today, that has shifted:
Finally, CNN issued its Poll of Polls this morning:
So, based on these data, we see the race has swung dramatically back to what we saw before the convention. If Obama is at 48 on November 4, I think we all will be very happy that evening as we watch the results, because even if the undecided voters that day split 70 percent for McCain, Obama will become president.
Rasmussen shows that the race is now tied:
This is the third straight day that Obama's position has improved in the poll.
Research 2000/Daily Kos also shows Obama has risen:
The six point margin is two points wider than yesterday when the poll showed a 48-44 spread. This is a three day rolling poll, and the one day numbers yesterday were very good for Obama, 50-42. Of course, with a small sample size (360 interviews), one day numbers have a very large standard error (5%), but the trend clearly reflects events on the ground, events that do not benefit McCain's campaign or narrative.
Their August 19 poll, the one conducted prior to the rollercoaster ride of the conventions had Obama up 47-42, essentially the same spread Obama now enjoys in this poll. This is yet more evidence that the race might be returning to its pre-convention dynamics. The poll observes:
In the matchup, McCain leads 50 - 43 percent among men, compared to 46 - 41 percent August 19, and 52 - 43 percent among white voters, compared to 48 - 40 percent last month. He also leads 71 - 21 percent among white Evangelical Christians, up from 65 - 25 percent.
Obama leads 54 - 40 percent among women, compared to 53 - 39 percent last month, and 93 - 2 percent among black voters. The Democrat leads 57 - 37 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old while McCain inches ahead 49 - 47 percent among voters 35 to 54. Voters over 55 tilt to Obama 47 - 45 percent.
The pollster was J. Ann Seltzer of Des Moines who correctly predicted, much to the terror of us Clintonistas last January, the outcome of the Iowa Caucus, that is, the victory of Barack Obama in the Iowa causes, an unexpected result and one that propelled Obama on his path to the nomination. The Star observes:
The poll, conducted Sunday through Tuesday by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, also revealed a geographic disparity between the two candidates: Obama, the Democrat, holds a 54 percent to 40 percent advantage in Indianapolis, but McCain, the Republican, leads in all other regions of the state, including Northwest Indiana.The Washington Post this morning uses John McCain's gaffe that the "fundamentals of our economy are strong" as a point of departure to analyze the race. That point of departure perhaps illuminates something of the meaning of this poll. It seems apparent that the race is returning to the position where it stood prior to the two nominating conventions. Dan Balz observes in that article that McCain faces a landscape where the political fundamentals are completely unsound:
1. An economy where every gain has now been wiped out (and then some: my pension fund has lost 25 percent of its value the last few months);
2. An impossibly unpopular president;
3. An overwhelming sense that the country has lost its way;
4. The Republican Party with a terrible public image; and
5. An imbalance in registration between the parties that greatly favors the Democrats.
Balz doesn't throw in the towel for McCain's chances, and neither must we, but he observes, as this poll out of Indiana might suggest:
Absent external events, (McCain) was doing well. With the economic news of this week, the polls hint at a deflation in his position. The playing field has once again tilted slightly toward Obama, who now must take advantage of it.
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 44%
Udall (D) 56%
Pearce (R) 41%
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 46%
Christopher Newport University:
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 39%
Warner (D) 54%
Gimore (R) 30%
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 44%
The bad news: This Virginia poll shows McCain gaining strength, while Rasmussen shows a close race in Wisconsin and Oregon.
The good news: The Virginia poll goes against everything else that's been released this week, and since the pollster isn't well known, I'd call this an outlier. Otherwise, everything else looks great. Rasmussen state polls often lean a little more Republican than polls from other firms, so it may not be bad at all that even they show Obama up in Wisconsin and Oregon. SurveyUSA, meanwhile, confirms the Obama resurgence in New Mexico that ARG first spotted... And that also seems to help Tom Udall bounce back to a strong double-digit lead in the Senate race there. And finally while I'm cautiously considering the Selzer poll of Indiana may be an outlier (considering the other polls recently released), Ann Selzer simply is the best pollster in the Midwest so perhaps she may be onto something that all the other pollsters are missing (think Iowa Caucus).
Conclusion: Overall, this is more good news for Obama. He's holding onto the Gore-Kerry Blue States, so hopefully this means he can do more to play offense than get stuck in defense mode. Again that one Virginia poll smells like "OUTLIER!", so it probably shouldn't dissuade Obama from making a move here. And if we get any confirmation on the Selzer poll of Indiana, Obama may soon have an Option #6 to 270. :-)
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Why do I have a feeling that this won't hurt Barack Obama one bit? ;-)
Obama-Biden (D) 48%
McCain-Palin (R) 43%
Obama was down 2% in the last poll just last week... So this dramatic 7% shift is a HUGE rebound for us! What looks big to me so far is that white women, Independents, and voters who care most about the economy are shifting back to Obama. Oh yes, and with the economy being the #1 issue on voters' minds in this poll, this presents a major opportunity for Democrats.
So what should we get out of this hot new poll? Basically, Obama needs to hammer home his economic message. Keep talking about how Democrats will solve the problems that led to the current financial crisis and mortgage mess, and don't take the GOP bait on "culture war" crap.
If these numbers hold up in the coming weeks, we'll be in a good position for November 4. :-)
The bad news: Wisconsin looks too close for comfort.
The good news: Obama's still winning Wisconsin, and he's now pulling ahead in Ohio, a state that recently seemed to be slipping away from us. Also, Obama's back to a tie in Florida, which means we may once again have a shot at winning The Sunshine State. And finally, Obama has a great opportunity to force McCain to play defense in what are supposed to be "solid red states" like North Carolina and Indiana.
Conclusion: If new polling in the next few days confirm these new numbers, then John McCain's in for a rough ride this fall. As I've talked about before, Barack Obama has five main paths to victory. And today, CNN seems to be telling us that Options #4 & #5 are looking more possible. While it's important for Obama to keep his options open in Virginia and the Big 3 Western Swing States of Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado, it also helps that Obama can keep Ohio and Florida on the table. Because when Obama has more options for victory, that makes it easier for us to limit McCain's options and force the GOP to play defense rather than make things harder for us.
So overall, it's a good day for Obama. :-)
So which McCain do we believe? Either? When one's two-faced, we can't trust either face.
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 45%
As the ridiculous, "scandalous" distractions that fueled the "McSurge" fade away and the economic crisis now becomes Issue #1, Obama's now looking better to voters. Why? Perhaps because he's the one candidate who actually proposes real solutions!
Oh, and here's an extra bonus from Reuters-Zogby:
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 45%
Now I think you all know what I think of Zogby polls. I usually don't pay too much attention to them, and I simply ignore their unreliable internet polls. But since the Zogby numbers now fall in line with the more accurate pollsters, I figured I might as well include them. ;-)
Can you imagine how many lives would be ruined right now if McCain and Bush had gotten their way?
He provides many great reasons to donate.
The bad news: ARG confirms the "McSurge" effect in Ohio, North Carolina, and Colorado.
The good news: ARG shows an Obama rebound in New Mexico and a surprisingly close race in Missouri, Montana, and West Virginia. Oh yes, and Public Policy Polling confirms the Obama rebound in Virginia is for real.
Overall: The states of the race look quite good. :-)
Public Policy Polling-
The Summary: Obama still has many paths to 270+ electoral votes while McCain's path is only one. McCain needs to hold nearly all of Bush's red states, but the polls tell us that this scenario may not happen. Obama, meanwhile, can win by either sweeping all three Western swing states (Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico), winning at least two of those three states plus Iowa, winning at least one of those three states and Virginia, and/or winning Iowa and Virginia. If I had to choose which situation looks more plausible for victory, I'd choose Obama's in a heartbeat. :-)
Research 2000 Tracking-
For the most part, yesterday's numbers held up today. However, there were a few changes with Research 2000. Obama's favorables inched up to +18, Biden's favorables hit 50%, McCain's favorables fell to +3, and Palin's favorables are now -1! Basically, McCain & Palin are increasingly looking like polarizing figures. If this holds up, it shouldn't be too hard for Obama to hold onto the Democratic base while appealing to swing voters on his message of real, concrete change on important issues like the economy.
The good news: McCain was +1 last week, so it's an improvement.
Here are the new numbers:
Basically, the McSurge faded. His support softened as "Palinpalooza", "Lipstick-gate", and "Kinder-sex-gate" became increasingly irrelevant. Also, the Lehman-Merill-AIG financial crisis may have been on voters' minds in the final days of polling (the poll was taken Thursday-Monday).
Let's keep up the hard work, and hopefully we'll see continued improvement with these numbers.
Mark Halperin has assembled some pithy quotes from various sources about how Johnny "I was against Government Intervention before I was for It" McCain is recasting himself after the decline of his poll numbers in the wake of the financial crisis.
In an article that documents how McCain recklessly supported the deregulation of the industries that led to the current economic calamity, The Washington Post observes:
The Republican presidential nominee is scrambling to recast himself as a champion of regulation to end ‘reckless conduct, corruption and unbridled greed’ on Wall Street.Now, in case we're tempted to believe that McCain is repositioning himself because of his recognition that he has spent his lifetime supporting pig-headed and dangerous economic policies, The Los Angeles Times reassures us that it's just a simple cynical ploy to bolster his sagging poll numbers:
Under fire for his assertion that the American economy is fundamentally sound, John McCain moved Tuesday to assure voters of his empathy and accused Barack Obama of attempting to take political advantage of the roiling Wall Street crisis.Well, John, Barack Obama's lifetime of commitment to the weakest members of society is taking political advantage, but your conversion to Democratic economic policies in the midst of an economic crisis during a presidential campaign is a principled stand. Oh.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
The 500,000-strong women's movement, which "very, very rarely endorses in a general election", broke with its tradition of neutrality after "the addition of Sarah Palin gave us a new sense of urgency," said Gandy.
"She is being portrayed as a supporter of women's rights ... as a feminist when in fact her positions on so many of the issues are really anathema to ours," Gandy said. [...]
"The idea that she opposes abortion even in cases of rape and incest -- those kinds of positions are completely out of step with American women and once they find out about those positions, they get a little less excited about a woman running for vice president," Gandy said.
Well, it's the truth. McCain & Palin are anti-choice, anti pay-equity, and overall extremely anti-women's equality. How the hell is that "feminist"? No wonder why real feminists aren't buying their Bush*t.
Woo. Daddy. We're gonna fix it.
Make no mistake: my opponent is running for four more years of policies that will throw the economy further out of balance. His outrage at Wall Street would be more convincing if he wasnt offering them more tax cuts. His call for fiscal responsibility would be believable if he wasnt for more tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, and more of a trillion dollar war in Iraq paid for with deficit spending and borrowing from foreign creditors like China. His newfound support for regulation bears no resemblance to his scornful attitude towards oversight and enforcement. John McCain cannot be trusted to reestablish proper oversight of our financial markets for one simple reason: he has shown time and again that he does not believe in it.
Read the full transcript & watch the video from Colorado here.
Obama (D) 41%
McCain (R) 40%
As the "McSurge" wears off and people are thinking more about who can help us in these hard times, Obama's inching back up. As long as we keep our focus on how Democrats will fix what the Republicans broke, we'll go on to win.
Is there anything he won't lie about?
John "The Fundamentals of Our Economy are at-Risk" McCain today:
Good. It's about time the Democratic Party stands up for the voters.
This is the same trend we saw in Diageo/Hotline as well as Rasmussen and Research 2000/Daily Kos.
Obama-Biden (D) 46%
McCain-Palin (R) 42%
Yesterday's numbers had Obama +1, so this is a 3% jump in one day! Obviously, it looks like the Lehman-Merrill-AIG financial crisis is now hitting home. This also looks to confirm Obama's strengthening numbers in Rasmussen & Research 2000. Let's see what happens in the next few days, but it looks like the worsening economic crisis is causing more voters to turn away from McCain's many gimmicks (like "Lipstick-gate", "Kinder-sex-gate", Palinpalooza, and "Original Maverick") and to Democrats for real solutions. Isn't it interesting how economic crises cause us to remember what's really important?
"He did this," Douglas Holtz-Eakin told reporters this morning, holding up his BlackBerry. "Telecommunications of the United States is a premier innovation in the past 15 years, comes right through the Commerce committee so you're looking at the miracle John McCain helped create and that's what he did."
Uh-huh... And I'm a world-class runner because I own a really awesome pair of tennis shoes! Hey, that makes as much sense as John McCain claiming credit for a product created by the CANADIAN company Reseach in Motion! Wow, is there anything McCain WON'T lie about?!
A teacher in Elmira, NY, who is a die hard McCain supporter, asked her 4th grade class, "How many of you are McCain fans?" Not really knowing what a McCain fan is, but wanting to be liked by the teacher, all the kids raised their hands, except Little Johnny.
The teacher asked little Johnny why he has decided to be different. Little Johnny said, "Because I'm not a McCain fan."
The teacher asked, "Why aren't you a McCain fan?"
Johnny said, "Because I'm a Democrat."
The teacher asked him why he's a Democrat. Little Johnny answered, "Well, my Mom's a Democrat and my Dad's a Democrat, so I'm a Democrat, too."
Annoyed by this answer, the teacher asked, "If your mom was a moron and your dad was an idiot, what would that make you?"
With a big smile, Little Johnny replied, "That would make me a McCain fan."
Rasmussen observes, "This is the third straight day Obama has been at 47% while McCain has dropped a point on each of the past two days."
The other poll out this morning is Research 2000/Daily Kos:
In today's Research 2000/Daily Kos poll, Obama has stayed steady, and McCain has declined by one point. This is the same phenomenon, with different numbers, that Rasmussen observed.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Curiously, an unreleased Obama ad addresses this very issue; it apparently is playing only in Virginia at present:
I mean it. What can we buy to help him? I was thinking about that last week as I was worrying over ugly poll numbers. But even though it looks like there's light at the end of our tunnel, I know we can't get complacent.
So what can we do to help Obama win?
Why don't we start with canvassing? We all know volunteer door-to-door, face-to-face contact is the best way for Democrats to win over voters. So obviously, we can help Obama this way. At My.BarackObama.com (aka "MyBO"), we can all sign up to help. But even if we're not in a swing state, we can always donate to help pay for neighborhood voter outreach. Oh yes, and it's always fun to make a weekend trip out of a journey to volunteer in a swing state!
We can always make the calls. Remember that real, live person-to-person phone calls are also extremely effective in winning over voters. Again, MyBO is a great resource for figuring out how to deliver more votes for Democrats just by dialing a phone. But hey, let's not forget that these phone banks cost money. Our donations go a long way in making sure that all those important calls are made.
Yes, yes, I know I haven't yet talked about TV ads. Personally, I don't think they're the all-important weapons that many professional consultants think they are. Still, I won't kid myself that they aren't important at all. TV and radio ads, along with mail pieces, can help in reaching voters. And yes, they can be useful in delivering one's own message and/or hitting hard at the opponent. That's why it's important for us to donate to put more ads on the air in more states.
And finally, we will do so much to further the progressive cause and the Democratic Party in the future by investing in our party and our candidates. We have numerous worthy Congressional candidates all over the nation, and we have a a great party that we can make stronger. Our investment helps elect more and better Democrats to Congress next year who will help President Obama enact a progressive agenda, and it will go a long way to ensure we don't see another assault on our values in the same way that's happened in the last eight years with George Bush, Dick Cheney, John McCain, and the rest of the radical right GOP.
So what are you waiting for? Let's get to work now! We have a new President to elect, new members of Congress to elect, and a nation to save! :-)
10917.51 -504.48 -4.41%
2179.91 -81.36 -3.59%
1192.70 -59.00 -4.71%
Reality just came crashing down upon Wall Street.
C4O Reader --
Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden will be part of a video forum hosted by Women for Obama this Wednesday, September 17th, at 8 p.m. EDT. It's part of our Women's Week of Action -- and you can start the conversation.
They will discuss a range of issues important to women, from Equal Pay for Equal Work to reproductive health, from expanding the Family Medical Leave Act to giving tax cuts to strengthen the middle class. But they also want to know what's important to you. Be part of the conversation on women's issues with Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. Submit a question today:
Thanks, Women for Obama
P.S. -- After you've submitted a question, don't forget to join us on Wednesday, September 17th, at 8 p.m. EDT for the Women for Obama Online Video to hear Hillary and Joe answer your questions and talk about how we can bring the change our country needs.
Barack Obama: I'm Barack Obama, candidate for president, and I approved this message.
Ray Schoenke: This is Ray Schoenke. I played football with the Washington Redskins. Now I'm president of the American Hunters and Shooters Association. It's important to me that our next President protects our Second Amendment rights to own guns and defend ourselves.
Barack Obama and John McCain will both make sure we can keep our guns.
But what about keeping our jobs?
Barack's got a real plan that invests in creating jobs here at home and cuts taxes a thousand bucks for working families.
I saw a lot of cheap shots in my day...
But McCain's false attacks on Obama are just a fake to hide the ball. His plan sells out American workers.
McCain will keep giving tax breaks to companies that ship our jobs overseas.
And he'll look the other way while China breaks our trade deals.
It's the same old Bush playbook.
Look, when the coach loses eight years in a row, you don't bring him back for a ninth season!
We just can't afford more of the same.
Apparently, it's also up in Michigan, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland, Virginia and Ohio. Hopefully, we'll keep hearing more smart plays like this in the future. :-)
This was a live telephone poll of 906 Registered Voters and had a standard error of +/- 3.3%.
Gallup remains steady with the same margin it had yesterday:
If we're to believe the bullsh-t coming out of George Bush's and John McCain's mouths, "the fundamentals of our economy are strong". Yes, believe it or not, they're still in full denial on what they've done to ruin our economy.
John McCain tells us that "change is coming"... But is it the kind of change we need?
I don't think so. After all, he and his economic team are proposing to "solve" this crisis by implementing the same failed economic royalist policies that deregulated us into this mess in the first place. Because he stood by and quietly approved as his friend Phil Gramm moved to dismantle the Glass-Steagall Act that used to regulate the financial sector, we couldn't prevent the kind of disaster we're seeing unfold today. And because he once again stood by and approved as the Bushie-run SEC lowered the capital reserve requirements for major brokerage houses, these institutional investment houses (like Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, and Lehman Brothers) made these extremely risky investments in subprime mortgages, counted them as actual "assets", and ultimately collapsed as their once "profitable assets" went bust.
And what does John McCain want to do to solve this mess? Oh yeah, that's right. He thinks some vague hocus-pocus magic "reform" can solve everything! Unfortunately for us, his "reform" won't help us survive these hard times.
I'm sorry, but that isn't the change we need. If we want to see real change happen, we need new leadership. Oh yes, and how about new and better ideas as well.
Barack Obama understands what we need to do to solve this financial crisis, and he has the right ideas to do so. We need to restore reasonable regulations on the financial sector. We need to provide immediate, real relief to the working class people who are losing their homes to foreclosure, not just to the big Wall Street Titans that are losing their shirts from their risky investments. Ultimately, we need to enact a second stimulus package that will help stabilize and strengthen the economy by providing that aid to the homeowners hardest-hit by the housing crisis, as well as extending and expanding unemployment insurance for people who've lost their jobs. That sounds more like the real change we need.
We have a real choice to make. Our nation is facing hard times, and we need new leadership to get our country out of the mess George W. Bush & his GOP cabal got us into. Do we allow John McCain to give us four more years of the same ol' sh-t... Just branded differently? Or do we choose real change?
Our economy needs to be fixed... Why don't we actually elect leaders who want to fix it!
Interesting internals: McCain is leading only by one point among voters over 50, but among voter under 50, Obama leads McCain 52-44. This is particularly exciting given the numbers of younger voters whom Obama has registered this year in the Old Dominion. Though McCain has a strong lead among white voters, 57-39, Obama more than makes up for this as he trounces McCain among African American voters, 88-11. Interestingly, Obama leads among both persons with a college education and persons without a college education; in both cases, it's 50-46.
SUSA provides this note about its methodology:
SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults 09/12/08 through 09/14/08. Interviews were conducted largely but not entirely after ABC News interview with Sarah Palin had been broadcast, after federal bailout of Fannie Mae had been announced, but before bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Of the adults, 817 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 732 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Virginia has 13 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Virginia by 8 points in both 2004 and 2000.
Brave New Pac also has a new hard hitting ad out:
Meanwhile, poor John McCain can't get people to show up to his rallies if Sarah Palin isn't with him:
JACKSONVILLE, Fl. -- At his first rally without Palin since selecting her as his running mate, McCain attracted roughly 3,000 people at an arena here with 16,000 seats.
She can't help herself. It's pathological.
It's just incredible.
Republicans really have no shame at all. They don't even bother to hide their racist beliefs - they're proud of it and intend to make a profit from it.
From the AP:
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Activists at a conservative political forum snapped up boxes of waffle mix depicting Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama as a racial stereotype on its front and wearing Arab-like headdress on its top flap.
Values Voter Summit organizers cut off sales of Obama Waffles boxes on Saturday, saying they had not realized the boxes displayed "offensive material." The summit and the exhibit hall where the boxes were sold had been open since Thursday afternoon.
The box was meant as political satire, said Mark Whitlock and Bob DeMoss, two writers from Franklin, Tenn., who created the mix. They sold it for $10 a box from a rented booth at the summit sponsored by the lobbying arm of the Family Research Council.
I'm nearly speechless. We need to win this election big and keep these people as far from decision making roles as we can. Get out there and do something for a local candidate, folks.
- The major indeces are off their lows, but overall the market's still sharply lower. The Dow's down 2% now while the Nasdaq's off just over 1%.
- Bank of America & Merrill Lynch are describing their deal as a "merger", but the reality seems to be that BofA will be taking over the $50 billion of Merrill's assets and "merging" them into BofA.
- AIG's stock is off over 40% as investors wonder whether there's a future for them.
- Lehman Brothers stock has fallen 90% JUST TODAY to spare change as they go bankrupt.
- Bush hardly had anything to say on today's news... Just something on "having confidence in the market".
Stay tuned here at C4O for more as we track today's big news on the financial crisis.
(It was 50-47 yesterday and 49-46 on Saturday.)
Research 2000/Daily Kos also has a one point change in the race, though it's to extend the lead that Obama had yesterday:
(It was 47-45 in yesterday's poll, and 47-47 the day before.)
But guess what, McCain said this morning that the fundamentals of our economy are strong. So there you have it: reform without a problem to start with--that's the McCain analysis:
The Obama campaign has responded to McCain's absurd suggestion that the fundamentals of our economy are strong. Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton said"
Today of all days, John McCain’s stubborn insistence that the ‘fundamentals of the economy are strong’ shows that he is disturbingly out of touch with what’s going in the lives of ordinary Americans. Even as his own ads try to convince him that the economy is in crisis, apparently his 26 years in Washington have left him incapable of understanding that the policies he supports have created an historic economic crisis.
The Democratic nominee for vice president has come out slugging in recent days. A report on Politico suggests that our vice presidential nominee will deliver a major and hard-hitting address today in Michigan. According to Politico:
While the lines of attack have long been drawn, Biden will assert . . . that a McCain presidency would amount to a third Bush term and will focus, in a detailed, comprehensive and aggressive way, on John McCain's domestic policies and harsh campaign tactics.If his speech hammers at away at a point he made the other day in Saint Louis, I think it may have some impact. The St. Louis Dispatch the other day reported that Biden in a Missouri stop hammered away at McCain's proposal to tax your healthcare benefits:
Taxing American workers' health care is not the answer, he said. Under McCain's plan, Biden said, a person earning $50,000 a year, with employer-provided health care worth $12,000 a year, would be subject to income taxes on all $62,000. Now, no taxes are levied on (workers') health care benefits.Yeah, that's change we can believe in, Senator McCain.
McCain has been highlighting his proposed $5,000 a year tax credit to offset some of that tax hike, but Biden said that at least $7,000 would still be subject to the tax.
Meanwhile, Sarah "Lying Sack of Shit" Palin was widely panned on the Sunday talk shows:
Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) said on CBS’s "Face The Nation": “She doesn’t know anything, and she is not ready to be vice president."
New Mexico Democratic Governor Bill Richardson said on Wolf Blitzer's "Late Edition": “Here’s the issue with Gov. Palin. She’s a governor. … That’s good executive experience. She’s telegenic. She’s smart. But there are just a lot of distortions about her record that are coming out."
Senator Claire McCaskill said on ABC's "This Week": "Sarah Palin this summer called Hillary Clinton a whiner. And now it’s oh, you know, they are being disrespectful to Hillary. I didn’t hear her say that when she was asked that before she was the vice presidential pick."
Updated: TPM has put together this montage of Sunday talkshows:
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Wall Street was in turmoil on Sunday as Merrill Lynch rushed to find shelter in a $35bn-plus takeover by Bank of America and Lehman Brothers headed towards filing for bankruptcy.
BofA's bold bid for Merrill came as the world's top banks appeared close to abandoning efforts to save Lehman and set out to build a firewall against further financial chaos with a $50bn liquidity pool to support other vulnerable institutions.
There was speculation late on Sunday that the Federal Reserve might announce additional liquidity support, possibly by easing the terms on its borrowing windows, to reduce the risk of a disorderly unwinding of Lehman's positions. The Fed meets to decide on interest rates on Monday. The moves capped a weekend of high drama that could lead to one of the most radical reshapings in Wall Street's history.
Thanks to the Bush-McCain GOP "laissez-faire" policies that actually privatized reward while socializing risk for these financial industry oligarchs, they allowed for a deregulated market that led to all these risky investments that are now collapsing all around us. I hear that McCain says this reinforces his call for "reform" on Wall Street. Excuse me... But what "reform"??!! Sorry, but his & Bush's "reform" is what f**ked us up in the first place. Why the hell would we want more?