What's Up in Vegas

Another day, another opportunity to win over some more Nevada voters! Yesterday, I had a chance to do this at the campaign office as I got my phone out and called local voters. I made the calls, and here's what happened.

First off, I found some voters who are understandably irritated by the 24/7 campaign in Nevada. I tried to explain to them that I wasn't out to deliberately annoy them, but I don't know if these people really got it. And honestly, these people are the ones who usually look for an excuse not to vote.

Fortunately, I found many more people at home who are planning to vote for Obama and Titus. These people missed early voting, so all they needed was a reminder to vote on Tuesday. Oh yes, and I also found even more Democrats who did vote early before the 10/31 deadline! And whether these folks already voted or will vote on Tuesday, they all sounded enthusiastic about Obama & Titus.

Oh, and did I mention that I was calling Henderson yesterday? And did I forget to say that I reached no McCain-Porter voters while on the phone?

So far, the state of the race looks good in Southern Nevada. However, our work is NOT done! We obviously still have voters to turn out to vote on Tuesday. So please, don't stop working now! Keep up the good work, help me turn out the vote, and I know we'll win! :-)

Today's States of the Race

Brought to you by Allstate & National Journal! They've released their new set of swing state polls. To get a better sense of what's happened in the last 10 weeks, I've included their Mid-September numbers in parentheses.

Ohio:
Obama 48%
McCain 41%
(Was 41-42 for McCain)

Virginia:
Obama 48%
McCain 44%
(Was 41-48 for McCain)

Colorado:
Obama 48%
McCain 44%
(Was Obama 45-44)

Florida:
Obama 45%
McCain 44%
(Was Tied 44-44)

North Carolina:
Obama 47%
McCain 43%
(NC wasn't polled in September.)

The bad news: NJ shows a closer race than most other pollsters in these swing states.

The good news: LOOK AT THE TRENDLINE! Obama has risen dramatically in the last 10 weeks! He's gone from losing all these states except Colorado to leading in all of them. That's nothing short of breathtaking.

Conclusion: Again, we should NOT count on "winning" before we make it happen! Perhaps the trend is moving in our direction... Or perhaps not so much. Whether we're just barely ahead for leading by a mile, nothing really counts until after the polls close on November 4. So what are you waiting for? Get out and MAKE VICTORY HAPPEN! :-D

Whoops, No "Voter Fraud" in Nevada!

The Nevada Secretary of State has issued a report debunking all the myths of "VOTER FRAUD!!" that the Rethuglicans tried so hard to push. Oh noes, so how will McBush & Failin' now be able to suppress enough votes to win The West? Haha. Hooray for Nevada! Let the people vote!

The Morning's States of the Race

AP-GfK has released a new round of state polls, so let's take a look at what they're showing.

Florida:
Obama (D) 45%
McCain (R) 43%

North Carolina:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 46%

Ohio:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 41%

Virginia:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 42%

Colorado:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 41%

Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 40%

Nevada:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 40%

New Hampshire:
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 37%

The bad news: Florida and North Carolina look tight.

The good news: Obama still has the edge there in these crucial final days. And even better, Obama leads far outside the margin of error in all the other states reporting! With states like Colorado and Nevada & states like Virginia and Pennsylvania showing such strong leads for Obama, it looks like "the firewall" is holding up and he has at least 300 EVs firmly in his corner.

Conclusion: Still, we can NOT afford to be complacent! The national polls suggest that a little tightening may be happening, so we need to work as hard as we can to secure all these leads in all these states. So please, let's keep up the good work and win this election! :-D

LA Times Sez: Obama Ahead in Ohio & Florida

Whoops! McBush may just be losing the two last swing states he was banking on for victory. Here are the new LA Times-Bloomberg polls out:

Ohio:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 40%

Florida:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 43%

These are McCain's last hope of a win in a week. If he loses either of these states to Obama, stick a fork in his White House chances. So come on, you know what we need to do... Keep working until we WIN! :-)

Arizona Is a Dead Heat

Really! Cronkite/8 News shows a dead heat in its new poll!

McCain (R) 46%
Obama (D) 44%

WHOA! If I were in the McBush campaign, I wouldn't want to be in the same room with the candidate on November 4. Especially if Obama pulls off an upset win in Arizona, I could see McCrazy losing it.

Ah, poetic justice! ;-)

Hooray for Florida!

Early voting has just been extended, thanks to an executive order from Gov. Charlie Crist (R). Yes, you heard me right. For once, a Florida Republican actually did something to help people vote!

So whatever Crist's motivations were, we here at C4O are glad that more Florida voters will actually be able to have their say. :-)

So Far, So Good in The Silver State

That's what The Las Vegas Sun. Democrats continue to hold a large advantage in on-site early voting while only being slightly behind in vote-by-mail returns. Overall, this means Democrats hold a key edge in early voting.

So let's keep up the good work in Nevada! :-)

The New Mexico Report

At Motley Moose, alyssa chaos has a report from her hometown in New Mexico. So far, so good. Oh yes, and Hillary's making a BIG difference down there! Hooray! ;-)

CNN's Polls of Polls Sez: Obama Lookin' Good

Hot off the presses! CNN has released its new "poll of polls" showing the polling averages in these states:

Georgia:
McCain 50%
Obama 44%

Iowa:
Obama 52%
McCain 39%

Missouri:
Obama 46%
McCain 46%

New Hampshire:
Obama 52%
McCain 42%

If this holds up, McBush is a goner. He only has 9 days to change everything? While we should be prepared for anything, I doubt this can happen so soon. We now need to work our hardest to seal the deal & make our victory BIG!

Ready to make some history & defeat the Bush-McCain radical right? ;-)

The Morning's States of the Race

Brought to you by Politico-Insider Advantage!

Florida:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 47%

Ohio:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 42%

The bad news: I guess Florida is close.

The good news: Still, remember that this is the first time Politico-IA has shown Obama ahead in Florida, so he's still moving in the right direction. And OHIO??!! Wow, Obama is REALLY pulling ahead in The Buckeye State! This is the fourth consecutive poll this week (along with Big Ten, Qunnipiac, and Suffolk) showing Obama ahead far outside the margin of error in Ohio, so there's obviously real movement happening here. I guess it's about time that Ohio catch up with the rest of The Rust Belt.

Conclusion: Florida & Ohio may not be key to Obama's victory this year, but they still are key to a large Democratic victory vs. a narrow win. If we can win one or both states, we'll likely see a landslide that gives Obama a BIG mandate AND sends far more Democrats to the House & Senate. That's why it's critical that we NOT give up, NOT get complacent, and keep working until we win & win BIG! :-D

MONTANA?! YES. WE. CAN!

For a few weeks during the summer, it looked like Montana was a swing state. But shortly after the Republican Convention, it seemed like "Palinpalooza" sealed the deal for McCain here. Well, that's obviously not the case any more!!

Obama (D) 44%
McCain (R) 40%
Paul (I) 4%
Nader (I) 1%
Barr (L) 1%

With the economy in peril, Montanans seem to be giving Obama another look. Also, Ron Paul stands a serious threat to eat into McCain's numbers enough to throw the state's 3 electoral votes our way.

Simply put, this is nothing short of breathtaking! Who'd have thought that a Democrat could win MONTANA this year??!! This is all the more reason for us to work our behinds off to MAKE. THIS. VICTORY. BIG!!!! :-)

Allstate-National Journal Does the Rust Belt

And the results? Pretty damn good for Democrats!

Minnesota:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 40%

Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 41%

Wisconsin:
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 40%

The bad news: None here!

The good news: All 3 "Barely Blue States" from 2004 look awfully "Solid Blue" now! This is obviously good news for Obama & for us. No matter what crap McCrazy tries to throw at the wall in these states, it doesn't seem like any of it is working. Obama no longer looks to have any "blue-collar" or "white working class" problems anywhere in The Rust Belt. And now with the economy as Issue #1, this only helps Democrats here.

Conclusion: Still, let's NOT get complacent. Let's get working to make our victory BIG! :-D

McBush Pulling the Plug on Nevada to Dress Up Failin'?

Not yet... But they have cut back on their Nevada campaign. What shocks me the most is that they have yet to pay for & execute the live paid calls (you know, the "OSAMA OBAMA PALS AROUND WITH TERRORISTS!" bullshit) in Las Vegas that they ordered some two months ago.

So apparently, they can't afford to make the ugly attack calls in Vegas... But they can afford to buy $150,000 worth of ugly AND expensive clothes for Sarah Failin' at Saks, Neiman, Macy's, & Bloomingdales??!! Wow, talk about "fiscal conservatism" being thrown out the window!

But hey, if they'd rather play "Extreme Makeover" with Failin' than win Nevada, I'm happy with this. I'm sure Barack Obama awfully appreciates those extra 5 electoral votes. ;-)

Kentucky??!!

Who would ever guess that McCain could only cling onto a single digit lead in The Bluegrass State? Don't believe me? Believe Rasmussen!

McCain (R) 52%
Obama (D) 44%

Will Obama win Kentucky next month? Probably not. But does this prove McCain's terrible weakness in this and other supposed "Solid Red States"? HELL, YEAH!

Btw, I can hardly wait for Ras' new Indiana, Ohio, and West Virginia polls. ;-)

Nevada Early Voting UPDATE

Nevada's premier political reporter & analyst, Jon Ralston, has an update on Nevada early voting in The Las Vegas Sun. Here's what he's saying today.

[... M]ore than 15,000 Democrats voted the first day, then about 12,000 the second and 13,000 the third. More important, for Beers and the GOP, everything is relative 5,700 Republicans voted Saturday, a little more than 5,000 on Sunday and about 6,000 on Monday. If that pathetic pace continues though it seems unlikely by the end of the 14-day early voting period, Republicans will be far enough behind to make Nov. 4 an afterthought.

The state Palin visited Tuesday has been overtaken by a Democratic registration tsunami that has put the GOP more than 100,000 voters behind statewide. And now, after three days of early voting, it appears Democrats have converted their registration machine into a turnout juggernaut, holding a 59 percent to 25 percent lead in Clark County in the early vote 56 percent to 29 percent, if mail ballots are counted.

That is nothing short of devastating if it holds up: no GOP Election Day machine, no voter suppression techniques, no wailing about ACORNs and Ayers can change that.

This is great news for us! The more Democrats vote and vote early, the less likely it is for Rethuglicans to steal the election for McBush-Failin'. That's why we must continue to drive Democrats to the polls NOW and why we must fight the GOP's efforts to supress the vote.

PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE DO WHATEVER YOU CAN TO HELP OBAMA WIN NEVADA!! See how you can help get out the vote! We're already winning The Silver State, so all we need to do now is seal the deal and make the victory as large as possible so that Dina Titus & Jill Derby are elected to Congress and so Democrats win both houses of the Legislature!

Oh yes, and please don't forget to donate while we can still make a difference! We can win Nevada and win here BIG! YES, WE CAN! :-)

Is West Virginia Still Close?

The Rainmaker Group, a Democratic polling outfit, has released a new West Virginia poll. Here, take a look.

McCain (R) 42%
Obama (D) 41%

I figured these are good numbers to ruminate on while we all hold our collective breath for those shiny new CNN-Time swing state polls to be released this afternoon. I wonder if they'll also show West Virginia as a toss-up. Perhaps I was a little too fast to give up on The Mountaineer State. ;-)

Tuesday Strategy Session: What We Can Do

In case you've lost track of time, we only have two weeks left to make a difference in this election. So what can we do? Well, let me tell you about what I did last weekend.

In addition to my local walking, I also made phone calls to Nevada. Other than door to door, face to face contact, the best way to reach voters is by way of volunteer phone calls. Yes, that's right. Better than robocalls, better than mailers, better than teevee or radio ads... Calling works! And last weekend, I was able to do just that in calling Nevada. I talked to undecided voters, I reminded Obama supporters to vote early, and I may have been able to convince people that weren't originally planning to vote to vote early.

This is why it's critical for us to keep working right now. And especially now, it's critical for us to reach voters in the swing states and GET THEM OUT TO VOTE! The Obama campaign has made it easy for us to help. All we need to do is visit my.barackobama.com and either sign up to call online and/or sign up for a physical phonebank.

It's simple. It's easy. And best yet, IT WORKS! Please make the calls for Obama and help Democrats win!

And btw, about Florida...

In case you missed it, here's the new Reseach 2000 poll of Florida:

Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 45%

Nice. The Sunshine State seems to be going our way. If we keep up the good work, I know we can win. :-)

BREAKING: Supreme Court Rejects Ohio GOP Attempt to Purge New Voters

This just in from the AP. In a surprising move, the US Supreme Court just sided with the Ohio Secretary of State in overturning a lower court ruling that would have forced local election officials to purge voters off the rolls whose names did not exactly match the information recorded in other state & federal government databases.

So what does this mean? The Ohio Republicans were trying to purge legitimate new voters off the rolls by arguing that voters like "Jane D. Plain of Columbus, OH" shouldn't be allowed to vote if her drivers license shows "Jane Plain of Columbus, OH" and her Social Security records show a "Jane Doe Plain of Columbus, OH". Anyone who was recently married or has a middle name that isn't always included or was simply a victim of some government bureaucrat's sloppy handwriting could have been purged off the rolls. And why? Just so the state GOP can "deliver Ohio to McCain" in the same way that former Secretary of State Ken Blackwell promised to "deliver Ohio to George W. Bush" playing dirty tricks in 2004?

Good on the Supremes. It's good that they're standing up for the voters for once. Maybe they still feel guilty about Florida in 2000? Whatever their thinking, I'm glad they're allowing people's votes to be counted this time.