Thursday, July 10, 2008

Obama Well Positioned To Win

It's only July, and the election is still four months away. These facts are important facts to keep in mind, but I think there is little doubt that were the election held today, Barack Obama would win the election. Lots of things can change. I have been around long enough to know the Republicans can throw mud in a drought, but gas prices are going up at the same time that employment is going down and the war just keeps going on and on.

has a summary of Chuck Todd's, Larry Sabato's, Electoral-Vote.Com's, John Zogby's, Election Projection's, and Five Thirty Eight's assessments of where the Electoral College currently stands.

Three of them allocate all the votes despite findings within the margin of error. Electoral-Vote.com shows Obama over McCain, 320 to 218. Election Projection has Obama over McCain, 306 to 232. Five Thirty Eight has Obama over McCain, 313 to 225.

The remainder of these prognosticators play their cards a little closer to their chests and decline to allocate close states. Obama still leads by each of their assessments. Chuck Todd has Obama over McCain 210 to 189 with 139 electoral votes as toss-ups. Larry Sabato has solid Obama over solid McCain 183 to 144, a nice base for our candidate to build on. John Zogby sees Obama over McCain 273 to 160, with 105 still too close to call.

I typically am opposed to war, unemployment, and inflation, but this year, the only silver lining to these problems is the possibility that Republicans will crash and burn, as they justly deserve.

3 comments:

Psychodrew said...

Electoral-vote.com has him at 320 today. That includes IN & VA. Chris Cillizza had a post up on Gov. Kaine's VP prospects and he basically said that many operatives doubt that Obama can really carry the state unless Kaine is on the ticket. I read the same thing about Indiana and Bayh.

For all the hype about changing the map, I have a feeling that this is going to again come down to Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Of course, I'm just a bitter Clintonista.

DCDemocrat said...

It's a pointless exercise now, psychodrew, to worry over what might have been. We have what we have, and we go forward. The map looks good for Obama today, and that is the best we can have to day for our political interests.

For my part, I choose to move on.

Psychodrew said...

I think I've moved on. I donated to his campaign yesterday. Bear in mind, I had to hold my nose with one hand and type with the other, but I did it.

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