John McSame

Great news today from The Fix at the Washington Post. For months, even before the end of the primary battle, Democrats have been working hard to make the case the John McCain is running for George Bush's third term. New polling data indicates that the message is beginning to stick:

It's hard to miss the message. And, according to a new poll conducted by the Washington Post and ABC News voters are internalizing the message. Thirty eight percent of those surveyed said McCain would take the country in a "new" direction, while 57 percent said a McCain administration would mostly keep America on the "same" course.

In a New York Times/CBS poll conducted earlier this month, 43 percent of respondents said McCain would "continue Bush's policies," 28 percent said McCain would be less conservative than Bush, and 21 percent said McCain would be more conservative.

Given the current mood in the country, this can only be good news for Democrats. Last month, a Washington Post--ABC News poll found that Americans had their gloomiest outlook since 1992 when Americans elected a man from a town called Hope. A record 82% of Americans feel that the country is headed in the wrong direction.

When I heard that the Obama campaign was moving much of the DNC's political and organizing operations, I was justifiably concerned about the party becoming so entangled with the campaign that it was unable to act independently of Senator Obama. If, however, this move and other efforts to limit independent efforts by 527s keep Democrats on message, the campaign could be setting us up for a big victory in November.

But we should not get complacent. Looking at the daily tracking polls, Rasmussen has Obama up 45-41 and with leaners are added in, Obama is up 48-45. Obama is carrying 79% of Democrats while McCain is carrying 85% of Republicans. Among independents, Obama is leading 46-41. Even though Obama is not doing as well amogn Democrats as McCain is among Republicans, he still holds a (statistically insignificant) lead. Efforts to unite the party must begin continue.

Other polling data has found a big opening--and a big potential weakness--for Demcorats. A report just released by Rasmussen indicates that impression of both candidates are fluid:

In December, before the Iowa caucuses launched Obama’s successful campaign for the nomination, the Illinois Senator was seen as politically liberal by 47% of voters nationwide. By April, that number had grown to 54%. Today, 67% see him as politically liberal including 36% who say he is Very Liberal.

A similar pattern is seen for John McCain. The presumptive Republican nominee was seen as politically conservative by 31% of all voters in December, by 41% in April, and by 67% today. Just 19% say he is Very Conservative.

Given that John McCain has been in the public arena for some time, these are stunning numbers. They indicate that public attitudes toward the so-called Maverick have not hardened and that Democrats have the opportunity to shape his image just yet.

These numbers also indicate that Senator Obama is just as vulnerable. Indeed, Rasmussen issued a report last week that showed that 41% of voters believe he does not have enough experience to be president.

We are starting strong, but we have our work cut out for us. Just in case you forgot, this is the mentality that we are fighting against:

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