Thursday, July 24, 2008

"The Myth of the Toss-Up Election"

Crystal Ball has a great article up that summarizes my feelings to a tee. It says, as I have felt for some weeks, that the idea the race is a toss-up right now is a myth. Granted that anything can change, the notion that it's a neck-and-neck race is a media narrative to sell advertisements. It ain't so:

While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed--historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months--point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November.


When one candidate has a strong lead in states with 260 electoral votes and the other candidate has a similar strong lead in states with 97 electoral votes, it ain't a toss-up.

Now, the winds may change. We know the moon waxes and wanes. Life has gone on the earth nearly extinct and then revived several times. McCain may rise again, but the election, were it held today, would not be a nail-biter.

3 comments:

atdnext said...

Nicely said, DCDem! Unless McBush suddenly comes out of his gaffe-induced coma (and I guess anything is possible), he's screwed. Haha. ;-)

Psychodrew said...

We need to run like we are behind. If people think that this is going to be a cakewalk, they might be less inclined to get involved or even vote. Even if we can lose some votes at the top, those votes will matter more down ticket (hence the reason I think its important to maintain ties with the PUMAs).

Dizzy said...

Well Said! We still need to work for it, though .. we can't sit on our collective laurels and let the McBush Machine eliminate the lead we've earned.

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