Tuesday, July 29, 2008

A New Gallup Shows McCain Up and Obama Down

I confess that the polls are troubling me a little. I don't like it when some polls show the race dead even, some polls show Obama way out ahead, and now one poll (Gallup-USA Today) shows McCain ahead. What that tends to suggest to me is that there is volatility in the electorate, and I would prefer for the lake to be without ripples, a little like glass, as Obama moves effortlessly to the goal line.

The result that Gallup-USA Today shows is different from the Gallup Daily, which has Obama up by eight. The Gallup-USA Today may be an outlier, but its results are these:

McCain 49, Obama 45 (LV)
Obama 47, McCain 44 (RV)

Meanwhile, Rasmussen today reports that Obama's bounce is all gone:
Obama now attracts 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46%. Compared to a week ago, Obama has gained a single percentage point.
As always, like any researcher, I am screaming for, "More data!"

2 comments:

Psychodrew said...

Marc Blumenthal has a post on this at Pollster.com. He warned against buying into a lasting Berlin bounce.

Right now, look at the way the candidates are running. McCain is desperate, throwing anything and everything he can at Obama (an ad on snubbing the troops). Obama is acting above the fray, almost presidential. My take from their behavior is that McCain feels like he is losing.

DCDemocrat said...

Psychodrew, I agree that McCain is acting like a loser. All of this may be a blip, but I think it's important to consider all the data and see what we can see.

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