Tuesday, July 29, 2008

About That USA Today-Gallup Poll...

Apparently, that new poll has McBush up 4 among likely voters. This seems to fly in the face of every other reliable poll out there... Including Gallup's own Daily Tracker! So wazzup?

It looks like Gallup may have f***ed up just a little in doing this poll. So are unlikely voters really skewing 61%-7% towards Obama? And Gallup can simultaneously show Obama up 8 and down 4 among "likely voters"? I'm not buying it.

But of course, expect the corporate media to shout out this poll from every mountain top. Expect them to proclaim, "He's alive! Our beloved McBush is alive & kicking!" But hey, at least you know the bizarre facts behind this bizarre poll. ;-)
Posted by atdnext at 7:40 AM
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6 comments:

Anonymous said...

That 67% does seem inflated. Could some of that be Republicans who hate McCain but can't bring themselves to actually go to the polls and vote for a Democrat.

July 29, 2008 at 8:01 AM
Mike Meyer said...

They were two different polls. One uses a rolling sample and looks at just registered voters, though it has a huge sample. That is the daily tracking poll that shows Obama up eight points among registered voters. On the other hand, the one done for "USA Today" was of both registered and likely voters. There always is a problem with what constitutes a likely voter, since that definition influences how the poll turns out.

All of that being said, let us never be quick to dismiss data because it doesn't look the way we want it to look.

July 29, 2008 at 8:31 AM
Anonymous said...

The daily tracking poll is registered voters? That doesn't seem reliable to me.

July 29, 2008 at 9:29 AM
Mike Meyer said...

Psychodrew, yes. It's hard to know what's reliable. Obama has caused a lot of people without a history of voting to get to the polls. Maybe measures of "registered voters" are actually more useful than measures of "likely voters," i.e., people who have a history of voting.

July 29, 2008 at 11:24 AM
atdnext said...

Drew & DCDem-

True. And sorry about the gallup mix-up. But still, I have doubts about this poll. Just the number of the 61-7 for Obama "unlikely voters" seems bizarre. And no, I'm not just saying this because I don't like these poll results... I've seen even a couple "PUMA" bloggers show doubts about this poll.

July 29, 2008 at 12:01 PM
Mike Meyer said...

atdnext: Most likely voter models are not going to have young people, particularly minority young people, at the polls, so I don't find the 61-7 number as bizarre as you do. The problem with the poll may be just how unlikely it is that, say, young African Americans will get to the polls. I would say we can expect the highest turnout in history of that particular demographic.

July 29, 2008 at 2:29 PM

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