With many thanks to TPM Election Central for the fresh new numbers!
Suffolk University of Virginia:
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 39%
Survey USA:
Virginia-
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 43%
New Hampshire-
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 40%
The bad news: Where?
The good news: Obama is now building strong leads in two states that looked like pure toss-ups only days ago! If Obama can take these two states and 17 electoral votes off the table for McCain, then it's realm game over for Election 2008! Obama now looks to have at least 270 EVs either solidly behind him or leaning his way. If he stays this strong he wins!
Conclusion: I hope Barack Obama will knock our socks off at the debate tomorrow night! If he can put away swing states like New Hampshire and Virginia now, then we'll be in awesome shape for November 4! :-)
Showing posts with label Survey USA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Survey USA. Show all posts
Monday, October 6, 2008
Thursday, October 2, 2008
More States of the Race
Oh, yeah! We have ourselves some juicy new polling from North Carolina (Rasmussen) and New Mexico (Survey USA)!
North Carolina:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 47%
New Mexico:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 44%
The bad news: None here!
The good news: North Carolina has DEFINITELY shifted toward Obama in the last couple of weeks! If this holds up, Obama will have a HUGE advantage with the electoral map that McCain may not be able to surmount. Meanwhile, New Mexico now looks like a near shoo-in for Obama. His lead in the polls here has consistently been 7-12%, so there's probably little to no reason for McCain to continue spending money here. Obama's winning the Latino vote by 37% and the Native American vote by 33%, so that more than makes up for the close race among Anglo voters.
Conclusion: In the last 72 hours, we've been discovering an electoral map that has shifted dramatically in Obama's favor. Now yes, we still have a month for that to change. But since attitudes are now starting to harden in the final stretch, McCain's options for "game changers" are becoming increasingly limited. If Obama stays strong and on message, Democrats will win! :-)
North Carolina:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 47%
New Mexico:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 44%
The bad news: None here!
The good news: North Carolina has DEFINITELY shifted toward Obama in the last couple of weeks! If this holds up, Obama will have a HUGE advantage with the electoral map that McCain may not be able to surmount. Meanwhile, New Mexico now looks like a near shoo-in for Obama. His lead in the polls here has consistently been 7-12%, so there's probably little to no reason for McCain to continue spending money here. Obama's winning the Latino vote by 37% and the Native American vote by 33%, so that more than makes up for the close race among Anglo voters.
Conclusion: In the last 72 hours, we've been discovering an electoral map that has shifted dramatically in Obama's favor. Now yes, we still have a month for that to change. But since attitudes are now starting to harden in the final stretch, McCain's options for "game changers" are becoming increasingly limited. If Obama stays strong and on message, Democrats will win! :-)
Monday, September 22, 2008
The States of the Race: Map Changing?
Yay! Here's a flood of new state polls courtesy TPM Election Central:
SurveyUSA:
Virginia-
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 45%
ARG:
Georgia-
McCain (R) 57%
Obama (D) 39%
New Jersey-
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 42%
South Dakota-
McCain (R) 55%
Obama (D) 39%
Wisconsin-
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 45%
Rasmussen:
Minnesota-
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 44%
North Carolina-
McCain (R) 50%
Obama (D) 47%
Mason-Dixon:
Pennsylvania-
Obama (D) 46%
McCain (R) 44%
The bad news: South Dakota & Georgia look pretty solid for McCain, and Pennsylvania still looks too close for comfort.
The good news: Obama still holds a lead in Pennsylvania, and he seems to be strengthening in Virginia, Minnesota, and New Jersey. In fact, I'd dare to say that New Jersey is pretty darn safe for us now. Meanwhile North Carolina is officially in play, which means Obama has more options to reach 270 EVs.
Conclusion: Even though we've lost a few opportunities in places like Georgia and the Dakotas, that's not too surprising as these are "Solid Red States" that may take a while to purple. But with Obama ahead in Virginia and close in North Carolina, we still have plenty of opportunities to turn the map more than blue enough for Democrats to win! :-)
SurveyUSA:
Virginia-
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 45%
ARG:
Georgia-
McCain (R) 57%
Obama (D) 39%
New Jersey-
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 42%
South Dakota-
McCain (R) 55%
Obama (D) 39%
Wisconsin-
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 45%
Rasmussen:
Minnesota-
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 44%
North Carolina-
McCain (R) 50%
Obama (D) 47%
Mason-Dixon:
Pennsylvania-
Obama (D) 46%
McCain (R) 44%
The bad news: South Dakota & Georgia look pretty solid for McCain, and Pennsylvania still looks too close for comfort.
The good news: Obama still holds a lead in Pennsylvania, and he seems to be strengthening in Virginia, Minnesota, and New Jersey. In fact, I'd dare to say that New Jersey is pretty darn safe for us now. Meanwhile North Carolina is officially in play, which means Obama has more options to reach 270 EVs.
Conclusion: Even though we've lost a few opportunities in places like Georgia and the Dakotas, that's not too surprising as these are "Solid Red States" that may take a while to purple. But with Obama ahead in Virginia and close in North Carolina, we still have plenty of opportunities to turn the map more than blue enough for Democrats to win! :-)
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