Quinnipiac's Final Battleground Polls

Are you ready? Well, here they are! Let's take a look.

Florida:
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 45%

Ohio:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 43%

Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 42%

The bad news: Florida is awfully close!

The good news: OMG, we may actually win Florida??!! And Ohio? And win comfortably in Pennsylvania? If anyone had told me this two months ago, I wouldn't have believed that person. But now, it seems quite possible.

Conclusion: So how do we make the possible into the actual? WE WORK! So don't stop now! Keep up the good work, and I know we'll win! :-D

Zogby, Zogby, Zogby!

You know you want it. You know you must have it. You know you need your Zogby fix, so here are today's numbers!

Obama (D) 50.8%
McCain (R) 43.7%

Zogby shows Obama steadily growing a larger lead. Let's see if the other pollsters confirm this in the morning. Still, it's always fun to see what new wild numbers Zogby comes up with! ;-)

Baracking the Vote in Nevada

In case you forgot, I'm busy this week helping Barack Obama's campaign here in Nevada. And of course, this also means I'm working hard for the Dina Titus for Congress campaign in Nevada's 3rd District. And as I get ready for another hard day of campaigning today in Las Vegas, I want to share with you my experience on the ground yesterday.





First off, the rally yesterday morning was fantastic! We filled up the entire football field AND the whole set of open bleachers at Coronado High School in Henderson to see Barack Obama lay out his vision for a stronger America. It's just amazing to witness how Obama has grown as a candidate. Not that long ago, I wondered where all the specifics were amidst all the talk of hope and change and unity. But now, he can inspire while also fleshing out concrete plans for change on Iraq, the economy, health care, energy, and so much more. Obama has really found his inner Clinton, and I think he's all the better for it.

After the rally, I headed over to Obama & Titus office near McCarran Airport to pick up my assignment. And guess what? They gave me a neighborhood in Henderson's Green Valley community, arguably the most Republican heavy area in the Vegas Valley! I suddenly wondered how much success I'd have with even finding Democrats, let alone Democrats who will vote on Tuesday.

But ultimately, my fears were misplaced as usual. For one, there were as many Obama yard signs as McCain signs up in the neighborhood. Oh yes, and I ran into quite a few Democrats who already voters! Of the many Obama supporters I found at home, only two had not voted yet. And remember, this is supposed to be a "Republican stronghold"! Not bad, eh?

So really, we have good reason to feel good about Tuesday. But still, this election is NOT a done deal for us! Remember that my friends and I here in Nevada still need to turn out the last-minute Obama-Titus voters and persuade those still undecided voters to vote for Obama & Titus! So if you can, please keep up the good work by volunteering and making calls from wherever you're at!

If you work as hard as you can in these next three days, we will win and WIN BIG! So what are you waiting for? Let's go out and win this election, baby!

GWU Battleground

Whoops! Where's the "tightening" that was promised? Not even GWU Battleground is showing any "tightening" for McCrazy!

Obama 49%
McCain 45%

McCrazy lost 1% from yesterday, so what was a 3% lead for Obama has increased 1% to a 4% Obama lead. Again, if even the least favorable polls for Obama show no "tightening", then McCrazy's in for a rough weekend. ;-)

And Finally, ABC-Washington Post...

ABC-WaPo is in, and here are today's numbers:

Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 44%

No change from yesterday. And again, no clear evidence of "tightening". McCrazy wants to believe that victory is in his reach, but it's now our job to make sure it doesn't get anywhere near him.

So far, so good. ;-)

IBD-TIPP Is In

Let's see where they have the state of the race.

Obama 48%
McCain 44%

Obama's +1 from yesterday, so he now has a +4 lead. So if the most conservative (in more ways than one) pollster so far this cycle shows a stable or slightly growing Obama lead just before we start to see post-30-Minute-Ad numbers, then I guess we're in good shape. ;-)

Here's Gallup!

And what's the surprise? No surprise, really. Obama's still leading, no matter how you want to count it.

All Registered Voters:
Obama 50%
McCain 42%

"Traditional" Likely Voters:
Obama 50%
McCain 45%

"Expanded" Likely Voters:
Obama 51%
McCain 44%

Since yesterday, Obama lost 1% in All Registered Voters, gained 1% in "Traditional Likely Voters", and stayed the same among "Expanded Likely Voters". Basically, Gallup shows us a stable +5 to +8 Obama lead.

Nice. ;-)

Today's States of the Race

Brought to you by Allstate & National Journal! They've released their new set of swing state polls. To get a better sense of what's happened in the last 10 weeks, I've included their Mid-September numbers in parentheses.

Ohio:
Obama 48%
McCain 41%
(Was 41-42 for McCain)

Virginia:
Obama 48%
McCain 44%
(Was 41-48 for McCain)

Colorado:
Obama 48%
McCain 44%
(Was Obama 45-44)

Florida:
Obama 45%
McCain 44%
(Was Tied 44-44)

North Carolina:
Obama 47%
McCain 43%
(NC wasn't polled in September.)

The bad news: NJ shows a closer race than most other pollsters in these swing states.

The good news: LOOK AT THE TRENDLINE! Obama has risen dramatically in the last 10 weeks! He's gone from losing all these states except Colorado to leading in all of them. That's nothing short of breathtaking.

Conclusion: Again, we should NOT count on "winning" before we make it happen! Perhaps the trend is moving in our direction... Or perhaps not so much. Whether we're just barely ahead for leading by a mile, nothing really counts until after the polls close on November 4. So what are you waiting for? Get out and MAKE VICTORY HAPPEN! :-D

Afternoon States of the Race

Brought to you by Rasmussen!

Alaska:
McCain (R) 57%
Obama (D) 41%

New Mexico:
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Minnesota:
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

The bad news: I guess Alaska's not flipping blue any time soon.

The good news: We don't need Alaska to win! However, we DO need Minnesota & New Mexico. And so far, Obama's safely ahead in BOTH states. As long as Obama wins these & the other states where he's leading outside the margin of error, he wins next week.

Conclusion: Keep up the good work! We're almost there! ;-)

Ugh, IBD-TIPP...

Well, I guess yesterday was a fluke. Their numbers today pretty much reverted back to Monday's.

Obama 47%
McCain 44%

I guess the silver lining here is that aside from their occasional wild swings both ways, IBD & TIPP have shown a fairly stable 3-4% Obama lead. And if the most pessimistic pollster has Obama ahead 3% nationally while most of the rest have a 5-10% Obama lead, then we're not really in all that bad shape less than a week out from the election. ;-)

GWU Battleground

GWU Battleground is in, and here's what they say:

Obama 49%
McCain 46%

No change from yesterday. It will be OK. Just breathe.

Well, at least that's what I tell myself. ;-)

MORE States of the Race!

So you can't get enough state polls? Well, here are some more polls from Quinnipiac that show what's happening in the three biggest swing states.

Florida:
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 45%

Ohio:
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 42%

Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 41%

The bad news: Florida is close.

The good news: Florida is close, so McCrazy's original plan to "bank" on The Sunshine State's 27 EVs isn't working! Also, Obama still looks to be running away with The Buckeye State & The Keystone State. If Obama wins Ohio & Pennsylvania, then it's all over on Tuesday night... WE WIN!

Conclusion: Again, DON'T LET UP! Keep working. Keep calling. Keep walking. As long as we work for it, we will win! :-D

The Morning's States of the Race

AP-GfK has released a new round of state polls, so let's take a look at what they're showing.

Florida:
Obama (D) 45%
McCain (R) 43%

North Carolina:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 46%

Ohio:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 41%

Virginia:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 42%

Colorado:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 41%

Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 40%

Nevada:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 40%

New Hampshire:
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 37%

The bad news: Florida and North Carolina look tight.

The good news: Obama still has the edge there in these crucial final days. And even better, Obama leads far outside the margin of error in all the other states reporting! With states like Colorado and Nevada & states like Virginia and Pennsylvania showing such strong leads for Obama, it looks like "the firewall" is holding up and he has at least 300 EVs firmly in his corner.

Conclusion: Still, we can NOT afford to be complacent! The national polls suggest that a little tightening may be happening, so we need to work as hard as we can to secure all these leads in all these states. So please, let's keep up the good work and win this election! :-D

Our Final Trackers for Today

It's OK to breathe. Really.

ABC-Washington Post:
Obama 52%
McCain 45%

IBD-TIPP:
Obama 48%
McCain 44%

Phew! ABC-WaPo is unchanged from yesterday, while IBD-TIPP shows Obama +1 from yesterday. All in all, it looks like we have a stable Obama lead.

Keep up the good work & we'll win this election! :-D

Today's States of the Race

Brought to you by Mason-Dixon & NBC News! Come on, let's take a look at what's happening!

Montana:
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 44%

North Carolina:
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 47%

New Hampshire:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 39%

The bad news: North Carolina looks awfully tight, so we can't afford to let up in The Tar Heel State!

The good news: Who would've ever guessed that "the bad news" would be North Carolina TIED... SERIOUSLY??!! Also, how 'bout Montana? Montana's a swing state!! Oh yeah, and whoo-hoo to The Granite State! Rasmussen & Marist suggested a tightening race in New Hampshire, but neither Mason-Dixon (which has NO Democratic lean!) nor other recent polls (like the University of NH) seems to show that.

Conclusion: Don't let up! The states of the race look good, but we can't afford to be complacent in these numbers. We need to secure a lock on AT LEAST 270 electoral votes before we start chatting about a "landslide".

So what are you waiting for? Let's win this election! :-D

The Race for Congress Looks Good

Swing State Project has released it's new House Forecast. And believe it or not, we're in for another "wave"! Haha, the Rethuglicans just can't catch a break. ;-)

Pew Sez: What "McSurge"?!

The Pew Center for the People & the Press has its new national poll out. And guess what? There's no big "McSurge" for us to worry about! The media may be chattering about "tightening", but there's none to see in the Pew poll.

All Registered Voters:
Obama 52%
McCain 36%

Likely Voters:
Obama 53%
McCain 38%

Already Voted:
Obama 53%
McCain 34%

Will Vote Before Next Tuesday:
Obama 56%
McCain 37%

Oh, my! McBush isn't digging himself out of the hole he's in. If we're to believe Pew, he's only digging deeper into it.

Let's see what this week's other polls show. But so far, it looks like we have ourselves a stable race. And now, a stable race means a nice Democratic win next Tuesday! :-D

Today's First Trackers

Let's see what they're telling us.

Research 2000:
Obama 50%
McCain 43%

OK, it looks a little scary at first. However, remember that Sunday's Obama +5 number is included in today's average. And with yesterday being Obama +6, it looks like we may start to see a recovery over the week.

Rasmussen:
Obama 51%
McCain 46%

No change from yesterday. Of all the trackers, Rasmussen has been clearest in showing a stable race. We've seen Obama at or above 50% and with a 4-8% lead for about a month now, so this reassures me.

Diageo-Hotline:
Obama 50%
McCain 42%

Nice. The same numbers for three days in a row. Let's hope these numbers hold over the next and final week!

So far, so stable, so good. Let's wait & see how the other trackers report.

CNN's Polls of Polls Sez: Obama Lookin' Good

Hot off the presses! CNN has released its new "poll of polls" showing the polling averages in these states:

Georgia:
McCain 50%
Obama 44%

Iowa:
Obama 52%
McCain 39%

Missouri:
Obama 46%
McCain 46%

New Hampshire:
Obama 52%
McCain 42%

If this holds up, McBush is a goner. He only has 9 days to change everything? While we should be prepared for anything, I doubt this can happen so soon. We now need to work our hardest to seal the deal & make our victory BIG!

Ready to make some history & defeat the Bush-McCain radical right? ;-)

Diageo-Hotline Sez: No "McSurge" Here!

Diageo-Hotline is in, and it looks like there's no "McSurge" to be found.

Obama 50%
McCain 42%

Whoops! McCain actually lost 1% from yesterday's numbers. Obama now has an 8% lead. Overall, it looks so far like the race remains stable... Which looks good for us. :-)