CA-47: Battleground in My Backyard?

(This is the start of my multi-part series on emerging Western Congressional races in 2010.)

If we're to believe the local news reports, Democrats may actually lose a Congressional seat in Southern California. Central Orange County Assembly Member/Local GOP Power Broker Van Tran has announced he will challenge seven-term Democratic incumbent Loretta Sanchez next year. Already, Republicans are cheering victory and preparing to dance on Loretta's political grave... But are they celebrating too early?

Believe it or not, the GOP is. But how can that be? Isn't Orange County extremely conservative and Republican-friendly? Not exactly.

Overall, the county is changing and becoming less of a "red county" and more of a "swing county". But in the 47th Congressional District, we saw quite a sharp turn left in the once "swing district" now turning increasingly blue. President Barack Obama cruised to a 60-38 win in the district last November. Just in the last three years, Democrats have jumped from a meager 4% registration advantage to a much heftier 12% advantage. And of course, Loretta had no problem crushing her GOP opponent by a gigantic 69-25 margin while Van Tran struggled to defeat a Democrat with little money in his own State Assembly district by a tinier 54-46 margin. So what is The OC Register seeing that I'm not when they say my home district will be among "the hottest races in 2010"?

I guess they see the GOP pouring money into this district and galvanizing the Vietnamese-American vote. And let's face it, they're trying hard to score a win anywhere they can find. But even if Van can build a massive campaign operation, he still needs to overcome his own controversial reputation in Little Saigon while simultaneously eroding Loretta's long history of serving this district. Oh yes, and it doesn't help Van that he's been shopping for a race, any race, to win now that he's termed out of the Assembly while Loretta's been busy preparing for just this kind of challenge.

So what should we do? Well, we shouldn't just take CA-47 for granted, even with all the good stats in our favor. Rather, we should see these good stats as encouragement to make sure Loretta Sanchez defeats Van Tran by a large enough margin to provide coattails to Democrats running to turn GOP-held "red" state & local seats (like Van's own 68th AD seat) blue. Since we need to undo the damage of both the radical right ideologues still running local governments in Orange County and the GOP minority in Sacramento that's still large enough to hold the state hostage, this can be our opportunity to not just keep the 47th Congressional District strongly "blue", but also elect more Democrats to office in OC.

And hey, Loretta deserves our support. She's been voting more progressive as the district's been turning bluer. And though she once had to tout "Blue Dog" membership to win over moderate Republicans, she's been doing a good job of listening to what we the constituents wants and voting accordingly. And more importantly, she always works hard for Orange County and delivers real results for real people. That's why all the local school districts, police departments, fire departments, and city agencies go to Loretta first to ensure our tax dollars come home to work for us.

So if you can, please make sure Loretta Sanchez goes back to Congress in 2010. But not only are we investing in Loretta's reelection, we're also investing in building a stronger Democratic majority in Central Orange County and a more progressive future for the whole county. We're turning OC bluer one new Democratic voter registration at a time, and we shouldn't let a Van Tran challenge scare us away from continuing our good work.

MN-Sen: Franken by 224?

It may happen. The Minneapolis Star-Tribune now projects that Al Franken will win the recount by that many votes. Crazy, huh?

Well, it'll be nice to see Paul Wellstone's seat filled by another solid Minnesota prairie progressive. Let's hope it happens. :-)

The R Word

Can we say it now? Really? Well, perhaps we should wait until 2012 before celebrating it. In the mean time, we can work hard to make it happen!

The House Is Now in Order

C4O All-Star Mary Jo Kilroy has just been announced as the winner in the OH-15 House race! This means that the new House will open next month with 257 Democrats & 178 Republicans. Hooray! :-)

Btw, Ohio now has a majority Democratic Congressional Delegation. Isn't that great? This certainly makes up for the recent news of Louisiana growing redder. Ohio's bigger, and it's growing bluer. ;-)

This Week's Strategy Session

So where do we stand now? Democrats have now won the White House, at least 58 Senate seats, and at least 255 House seats. We still have a Senate seat to win in Georgia, a Senate seat in limbo in Minnesota, and 5 House seats in limbo. We still have an illegal discriminatory intitative to overturn in California, a legally questionable discriminatory initiative to overturn in Florida, and the entire 2010 election to start preparing for.

So where do we begin? Well, let's start in Georgia. Jim Martin needs our help right now.

I mean it. We are so close to winning. But if we slack off, we'll probably lose. Georgia is still a Red State, so most voters there are naturally inclined to elect Republicans.

However, this year is different. We have a great candidate in Jim Martin. We have a runoff election where it won't be too difficult to take advantage of our enthusiasm edge. We can win this election if we give it a try.

So why not go for it? What say you? And better yet, why not take some action if you're so inclined?

We'll need as many allies we can in Congress to implement President Obama's agenda of change. So why not take a shot at winning in Georgia? Now's the time to do it!

Where We Stand Now

Hey, everyone! I justed wanted to update you on where we stand electorally. I don't think you'll want to miss this! :-D

- Barack Obama looks to win the popular vote 52.4% to 46.1% and the electoral vote 365-173. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico have all flipped from red to blue. No state went from blue to red. Missouri currently looks to be going VERY narrowly for McCain, but as provisional votes are still being counted and a recount quite likely to happen, there's still a possibility Obama may win here as well.

- Democrats look to pick up at least six more Senate seats with three more seats still too close to call. Graduated All-Star Mark Udall won in Colorado while All-Stars Jeff Merkley in Oregon, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, and Kay Hagan in North Carolina all won & are headed to the Senate. Meanwhile, C4O All-Star Jim Martin in Georgia is going to a run-off election next month as C4O Rising Star Al Franken in Minnesota may still win as provisional votes are being counted and a mandatory recount looms ahead.

- In the House, Democrats have so far gained a net twenty seats with six seats still too close to call. C4O All-Stars Dina Titus (NV-03), Martin Heinrich (NM-01), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), John Boccieri (OH-16), Debbie Halvorson (IL-11), Gary Peters (MI-09), and Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) have all won & are on their way to Capitol Hill. Meanwhile, C4O Rising Stars Glenn Nye (VA-02) and Eric Massa (NY-29) have also won and are both on their way to Congress. So far, it's still too close to call for C4O All-Stars Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15) & Charlie Brown (CA-04) as provisional ballots and likely recounts may still change the outcome.

So are you excited about the change that's coming to Washington? I know I am! So congrats, everyone! WE WON! :-D

-

How The West Was Won... And Lost

This week has been nothing short of amazing! Barack Obama will be our next President. More and better Democrats will be going to Congress. The electoral map has undergone a major blue shift.

So why has this whole experience been bittersweet at best for me? Well, all is not well in my own home state. So what can we celebrate and what must we fix? Let me share with you the story of this election from behind the scenes.



First off, let's start with the bad news. We lost in California. But wait, you ask, didn't Obama win by about 24%? Isn't that good? Of course it is, and that isn't the problem.

The problem in California is that Barack Obama had hardly any coattails here. Look at how Prop 8, the marriage ban, may end up having to be stopped at the courts (again, hopefully). Look at how, barring the results in CA-44 & CA-04 changing in the provisional vote count, we have not gained any new Congressional seats. Look at how we're still short of a 2/3 supermajority in both houses of the state legislature.

Simply put, we failed our mission in The Golden State. There were hundreds of thousands of "undervotes" here, meaning that people voted Obama for President but did NOT continue downballot to vote on Congress, the initiatives, and local races. This is nothing short of tragic, and there's no excuse for the nation's biggest Blue State to still show so much red! Because of the inept and disastrous "leadership" of the state party, the refusal of the DCCC to invest in real races like CA-44 & CA-46, and the horribly gawd-awful "leadership" by The Task Force & Equality California on the No on 8 campaign & their failure to have a real ground game, we missed the opportunity to turn the Obama victory into a progressive victory in California.







Now contrast what happened in California on Tuesday to what happened in Nevada on the same day. While one state didn't change much, the other state next door underwent a massive transformation! Like Mountain West neighbors New Mexico & Colorado, Nevada is now officially a Blue State! And not just that, but Democrats now have a broad and clear mandate for progressive change.

Progressive Democrat Dina Titus was elected to Congress in a "swing district" that Bush won in 2004. Democrats now control both houses in the state legislature for the first time since 1991, including a 2/3 supermajority in the Assembly. Voters approved a good initiative that will actually help Nevada fully fund its schools. And of course, Barack Obama won the ex-Red State by a whopping 12%, including an 18% win in Clark County (Las Vegas Metro) and wins in the formerly Republican Carson City & Washoe (Reno) Counties!

So why were the results in Nevada so dramatically different? Let's see, Harry Reid and the state party leaders actually began early in registering more Democrats and building an aggressive field operation while the GOP was power drunk and asleep at the wheel. The Obama campaign and the state party were effective in coordinating with the Dina Titus campaign, the Jill Derby campaign up north, and the local campaigns. All the candidates up and down the ballot had a clear and consistent message for change on the economy, energy & environment, education, health care, and so much more. Basically, Democrats worked together on the ground and that's why we won!

So what lessons can we learn from this tale of two states? First off, there's no real substitute for a grassroots door-to-door, face-to-face campaign. Despite the good last-minute ads, they may have been too little & too late to make up for the lack of a ground game for No on 8 in California. Meanwhile in Nevada, no amount of negative attack ads from the Republicans against Dina Titus & Barack Obama could make up for their complete lack of a ground game while we Democrats truly rocked the vote!

Secondly, Nevada Democrats succeeded in translating an Obama victory into a progressive victory while California Democrats were simply lost in translation. Why couldn't we win the 45th & 48th Congressional Districts when Obama carried them? Why couldn't Debbie Cook win in the 46th when Obama carried it? Why were there so many undervotes statewide? Whatever the Nevada Democratic Party did right, the California Democratic Party needs to learn how to do it.

And finally, we should all be of good cheer! The West is ours if we want it! The results across the region prove that where Democrats work, Democrats win. But in places like California where state party leaders grew complacent, we lost out on real opportunities.

So what do we do next? After we're done celebrating, we will go back to work! We have more work to do to keep progress going, so let's do it! :-D

Yes, We Did!

Yes, I'm back home now. And yes, I wanted to congratulate all of us for all we did to make victory happen. Thank you so much!

We've lived through a whole lot in these last five months. We've seen all the ups and downs of the campaign. And now, we WON! Thanks to us, we have a Democratic President & a better & stronger Democratic Congress.

So can we all just take a break now? NO! OK, I guess we can take it easy tonight. But starting tomorrow, we have work to do. We have a President-elect to support, a party to continue building, and yes... We have errors to fix. Our victory could have been bigger & better in places like California & Arizona that lacked needed support & infrastructure, but the GOP caught a lucky break when "The Big Blue Wave" forgot to wash ashore when it left Nevada.

So what next? Honestly, we're still figuring out the details. Mainly, I'm thinking we need to remember what we stand for as Democrats, how to fight for our values, and how to keep winning. So please, please stay tuned. We have more to do & more to win!

The Closer

There's a reason why Michelle Obama is called "The Closer". I found it out yesterday in North Las Vegas. She knows how to seal the deal!

I was amazed yesterday as I heard from Michelle Obama herself on her own story, Barack's story, their family's common story, and our common story as Americans. Because both she and Barack actually remember where they came from what struggles they endured, they understand the economic problems that all of us are facing. I got that, and so did everyone else in North Las Vegas. We were all fired up & ready to go!

When Michelle Obama finished rallying us up, I quickly moved to the campaign office near the airport to see if I can be a "closer" as well. I was assigned a neighborhood in Silverado Ranch, a fairly Republican suburban area. I was up to the challenge, so I took it!

So I hit the pavement. I took notes from those who already voted early for Barack Obama & Dina Titus. I reminded those that haven't yet voted to vote today. All in all, I was able to reach out to some last-minute voters and remind them just how important today is.

Upon returning to the office, I made a few more calls to Henderson. And after that, I visited my family there. Oh yes, and I did remind them to vote for Obama & Titus today!

Here in Nevada, polls will be open today from 7:00 AM to 7:00 PM PDT. If you can, please make the calls and help me turn out the vote! Now's the time for all of us to be closers. Let's seal the deal and make victory happen today! :-D

What's Up in Vegas

Another day, another opportunity to win over some more Nevada voters! Yesterday, I had a chance to do this at the campaign office as I got my phone out and called local voters. I made the calls, and here's what happened.

First off, I found some voters who are understandably irritated by the 24/7 campaign in Nevada. I tried to explain to them that I wasn't out to deliberately annoy them, but I don't know if these people really got it. And honestly, these people are the ones who usually look for an excuse not to vote.

Fortunately, I found many more people at home who are planning to vote for Obama and Titus. These people missed early voting, so all they needed was a reminder to vote on Tuesday. Oh yes, and I also found even more Democrats who did vote early before the 10/31 deadline! And whether these folks already voted or will vote on Tuesday, they all sounded enthusiastic about Obama & Titus.

Oh, and did I mention that I was calling Henderson yesterday? And did I forget to say that I reached no McCain-Porter voters while on the phone?

So far, the state of the race looks good in Southern Nevada. However, our work is NOT done! We obviously still have voters to turn out to vote on Tuesday. So please, don't stop working now! Keep up the good work, help me turn out the vote, and I know we'll win! :-)

Baracking the Vote in Nevada

In case you forgot, I'm busy this week helping Barack Obama's campaign here in Nevada. And of course, this also means I'm working hard for the Dina Titus for Congress campaign in Nevada's 3rd District. And as I get ready for another hard day of campaigning today in Las Vegas, I want to share with you my experience on the ground yesterday.





First off, the rally yesterday morning was fantastic! We filled up the entire football field AND the whole set of open bleachers at Coronado High School in Henderson to see Barack Obama lay out his vision for a stronger America. It's just amazing to witness how Obama has grown as a candidate. Not that long ago, I wondered where all the specifics were amidst all the talk of hope and change and unity. But now, he can inspire while also fleshing out concrete plans for change on Iraq, the economy, health care, energy, and so much more. Obama has really found his inner Clinton, and I think he's all the better for it.

After the rally, I headed over to Obama & Titus office near McCarran Airport to pick up my assignment. And guess what? They gave me a neighborhood in Henderson's Green Valley community, arguably the most Republican heavy area in the Vegas Valley! I suddenly wondered how much success I'd have with even finding Democrats, let alone Democrats who will vote on Tuesday.

But ultimately, my fears were misplaced as usual. For one, there were as many Obama yard signs as McCain signs up in the neighborhood. Oh yes, and I ran into quite a few Democrats who already voters! Of the many Obama supporters I found at home, only two had not voted yet. And remember, this is supposed to be a "Republican stronghold"! Not bad, eh?

So really, we have good reason to feel good about Tuesday. But still, this election is NOT a done deal for us! Remember that my friends and I here in Nevada still need to turn out the last-minute Obama-Titus voters and persuade those still undecided voters to vote for Obama & Titus! So if you can, please keep up the good work by volunteering and making calls from wherever you're at!

If you work as hard as you can in these next three days, we will win and WIN BIG! So what are you waiting for? Let's go out and win this election, baby!

Nevada Early Voting UPDATE

Here's the latest news. Democrats have been outnumbering Republicans in early voting turnout so far by a 48%-34% margin in Washoe County (Reno) and a 52%-30% margin in Clark County (Las Vegas). And to put things further into perspective, Bush won Washoe County by 4% in 2004 while Kerry won Clark County by 6%. So far, SO GOOD for Democrats! ;-)

What Can We Expect After Tonight

Obviously, all of us are curious about what may or may not happen after Barack Obama gives the "closing argument" of his life on national teevee tonight. How will "swing voters" react? What will Obama supporters do? How will the McCrazy campaign respond? All these questions and more are swirling in my head, and I'm sure you've been thinking about it all as well.

So what happens? I guess there's no way for us to know until after it happens. Still, let me offer some words of encouragement.

First, the Obama campaign knows what it's doing. For us to think otherwise is needless worrying. If anyone can do something to "seal the deal" in this final week, I'm sure the smart strategists at Chicago HQ have designed this half-hour presentation to do just that.

Second, how the heck can a 30 minute primetime special on Obama's solutions for our troubled economy hurt us? For all the talk among the radical righties about this causing "a massive backlash", they're simply hoping for the nearly impossible. After all, remember how they all bragged about how "McCain will cream Obama in the debates"? Yeah, how did that work out for them? When we talk about the real-life concerns facing real Americans, Democrats win. And with the GOP desperately trying one more time to distract us with "lipstick" and "socialists" and "terrorists", now's the perfect time to redirect the conversation back to what matters.

And finally, let's not forget the facts on the ground. Democrats have been voting early in greater numbers than Republicans, something that's totally unprecedented. Democrats have a better ground game also this year, something that's also unprecedented. So far, we're doing well. But still, why take any risks in the last week? Why not give Democrats one more reason to be "fired up & ready to go"? This 30 minute program may be able to do just that.

So there. We have reason to feel good going into tonight's historic media event. While we shouldn't be cocky and complacent, we do have every reason to trust the campaign's judgment and do all we can in these last days to support our candidate and our party.

So Far, So Good in The Silver State

That's what The Las Vegas Sun. Democrats continue to hold a large advantage in on-site early voting while only being slightly behind in vote-by-mail returns. Overall, this means Democrats hold a key edge in early voting.

So let's keep up the good work in Nevada! :-)

It's Hillary's B-Day Today!

So what are you doing to celebrate? Taylor has a good suggestion. Why not give Hillary a birthday gift she'll really appreciate... And for that matter, a gift that the entire nation will love! ;-)

MONTANA?! YES. WE. CAN!

For a few weeks during the summer, it looked like Montana was a swing state. But shortly after the Republican Convention, it seemed like "Palinpalooza" sealed the deal for McCain here. Well, that's obviously not the case any more!!

Obama (D) 44%
McCain (R) 40%
Paul (I) 4%
Nader (I) 1%
Barr (L) 1%

With the economy in peril, Montanans seem to be giving Obama another look. Also, Ron Paul stands a serious threat to eat into McCain's numbers enough to throw the state's 3 electoral votes our way.

Simply put, this is nothing short of breathtaking! Who'd have thought that a Democrat could win MONTANA this year??!! This is all the more reason for us to work our behinds off to MAKE. THIS. VICTORY. BIG!!!! :-)

Larry Sabato Hints at "The L Word"

Hardly any political reporter/analyst/pundit has the kind of reputation that Larry Sabato has. So for him to now openly suggest the possibility of a DEMOCRATIC LANDSLIDE is nothing short of breathtaking. Here's what he says will happen.

President:
Obama 318 EVs
McCain 171 EVs
Toss-up 49 EVs

In addition to all the Gore-Kerry states going to Obama, Democrats also have a BIG advantage in Iowa & New Mexico and have the edge in Colorado, Nevada, Virginia (just upgraded from "Toss-up"), and Florida. Only North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, and North Dakota (just upgraded from "Leans Republican") are still "Toss-ups".

Senate:

57 Democrats
41 Republicans
2 Toss-up

Larry Sabato notes that North Carolina & Oregon have now become "Lean Democratic Pick-ups" while Minnesota & Mississippi are the new "Toss-ups" and Georgia only barely "Leans Republican".

Feeling good? You should! Feeling complacent? You should NOT! Remember that the win on November 4 is only as BIG as we make it, so let's go out, work hard, and MAKE THIS WIN A LANDSLIDE!

More Happy News Tonight

More of our favorite unsavory Rethuglicans look to be in deep sh*t with less than two weeks left to turn the ship around. I love it. All these red districts are about to turn blue.

Remind me to make extra calls at the phone bank tomorrow night. ;-)

Republicans Concede Congress

Haha. This is hilarious. They're losing it... REALLY! Still, now's the perfect time to win as BIG as possible! ;-)

Tuesday Strategy Session: What We Can Do

In case you've lost track of time, we only have two weeks left to make a difference in this election. So what can we do? Well, let me tell you about what I did last weekend.

In addition to my local walking, I also made phone calls to Nevada. Other than door to door, face to face contact, the best way to reach voters is by way of volunteer phone calls. Yes, that's right. Better than robocalls, better than mailers, better than teevee or radio ads... Calling works! And last weekend, I was able to do just that in calling Nevada. I talked to undecided voters, I reminded Obama supporters to vote early, and I may have been able to convince people that weren't originally planning to vote to vote early.

This is why it's critical for us to keep working right now. And especially now, it's critical for us to reach voters in the swing states and GET THEM OUT TO VOTE! The Obama campaign has made it easy for us to help. All we need to do is visit my.barackobama.com and either sign up to call online and/or sign up for a physical phonebank.

It's simple. It's easy. And best yet, IT WORKS! Please make the calls for Obama and help Democrats win!