A Popular President... REALLY??!!

Are we ready for this? Will Rasmussen be able to handle this?

Obama's Job as President-Elect:

58% Approve
38% Disapprove

Can we handle a popular President Obama? I say YES WE CAN! ;-)

Afternoon States of the Race

Brought to you by Rasmussen!

Alaska:
McCain (R) 57%
Obama (D) 41%

New Mexico:
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Minnesota:
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

The bad news: I guess Alaska's not flipping blue any time soon.

The good news: We don't need Alaska to win! However, we DO need Minnesota & New Mexico. And so far, Obama's safely ahead in BOTH states. As long as Obama wins these & the other states where he's leading outside the margin of error, he wins next week.

Conclusion: Keep up the good work! We're almost there! ;-)

Today's First Trackers

Let's see what they're telling us.

Research 2000:
Obama 50%
McCain 43%

OK, it looks a little scary at first. However, remember that Sunday's Obama +5 number is included in today's average. And with yesterday being Obama +6, it looks like we may start to see a recovery over the week.

Rasmussen:
Obama 51%
McCain 46%

No change from yesterday. Of all the trackers, Rasmussen has been clearest in showing a stable race. We've seen Obama at or above 50% and with a 4-8% lead for about a month now, so this reassures me.

Diageo-Hotline:
Obama 50%
McCain 42%

Nice. The same numbers for three days in a row. Let's hope these numbers hold over the next and final week!

So far, so stable, so good. Let's wait & see how the other trackers report.

The Morning's Trackers

Here we go! Just after the "news" of a "tightening race" in the Zogby poll, some were expecting a new "McSurge". Well, guess what?

Research 2000 Tracking:
Obama 51%
McCain 40%

Rasmussen Tracking:
Obama 52%
McCain 44%

It ain't happening! So far, the state of the race is stable with a comfortable Obama lead. Again, while we should NOT become complacent in these numbers, we also shouldn't start worrying over nothing.

So far, nothing scary... It's OK to breathe. ;-)

Tonight's States of the Race

Where should we begin? How about Florida?

St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 42%

And how 'bout those new Rasmussen polls?

Louisiana:
McCain (R) 57%
Obama (D) 41%

Georgia:
McCain (R) 51%
Obama (D) 46%

Washington:
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 43%

Minnesota:
Obama (D) 56%
McCain (R) 41%

The bad news: I guess Louisiana is out of reach.

The good news: Fortunately, we don't need Louisiana to win. However, we are winning all the must-win Kerry states like Washington & Minnesota! Oh yes, and how about Georgia??!! Wow... Georgia!!!!

Conclusion: I hate sounding like a broken record, but if this holds up in the next 12 days we'll be in for a good November 4. So you know what to do now. Make us win & make this win BIG! :-D

Kentucky??!!

Who would ever guess that McCain could only cling onto a single digit lead in The Bluegrass State? Don't believe me? Believe Rasmussen!

McCain (R) 52%
Obama (D) 44%

Will Obama win Kentucky next month? Probably not. But does this prove McCain's terrible weakness in this and other supposed "Solid Red States"? HELL, YEAH!

Btw, I can hardly wait for Ras' new Indiana, Ohio, and West Virginia polls. ;-)

States of the Race: Good News Out West!

Hot off the presses! Rasmussen has two new polls in two crucial Western swing states. Here, let's take a look!

Nevada:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 45%

Colorado:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 45%

The bad news: None here!

The good news: Obama is solidifying his leads out West! The closer to the election we get, the better Democrats are poised to win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico! At this point, both Colorado & New Mexico show strong leans toward Obama while Nevada is starting to show an Obama lean as well. With Obama winning all the Kerry states, Iowa, and these three Western Swing States, Obama has secured 278 electoral votes and a win on election day!

Conclusion: PLEASE, PLEASE DON'T STOP WORKING FOR VICTORY! Please keep donating, keep volunteering, keep going until we win! I post these poll numbers not to lull us into complacency, but to encourage us to work harder for victory. We're almost there now, so let's make it happen! :-)

The Morning's States of the Race

Rasmussen has new state polls out this morning. Want to take a look?

Ohio:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 49%

Missouri:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 46%

Oregon:
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 41%

The bad news: Ugh, Ohio. For some reason, Obama's numbers in Ohio have been worse than the rest of the Upper Midwest region and next-door Pennsylvania.

The good news: MISSOURI??!! Obama's up beyond the margin of error in Missouri?! This is nothing short of spectacular! If Obama wins Missouri, he wins the election hands down. Oh yes, and I like me those Oregon numbers! Stick a fork in the McBush campaign in the Pacific Northwest, Obama will win Oregon & Washington.

Conclusion: Ohio concerns me. I just don't get why Obama isn't breaking through as much there as all its neighboring states. Still, Missouri & Oregon are excellent news! If Obama can carry formerly "Red States" like Florida & Missouri, then he won't need Ohio.

Rasmussen Sez: The States of the Race Look Great!

Here, take a look!

Kansas:
McCain (R) 54%
Obama (D) 41%

New Mexico:
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 42%

Illinois:
Obama (D) 56%
McCain (R) 39%

Massachusetts:
Obama (D) 62%
McCain (R) 34%

The bad news: I guess Obama won't win Kansas.

The good news: NEW MEXICO??!! Obama is up by double-digits in NEW MEXICO??!! Stick a fork in the McBush campaign there. The Land of Enchantment seems to be quite enchanted with Obama. ;-)

Conclusion: I love New Mexico. I can hardly wait to visit. ;-)

States of the Race: New Rasmussen Polls

Here we go!

North Carolina:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 48%

Ohio:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 47%

Virginia:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 47%

Missouri:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 47%

Florida:
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 46%

The bad news: North Carolina is a tie.

The good news: North Carolina is a tie! And better yet, Obama now leads in Missouri! If Obama wins The Show-Me State, this election is OVER. Same goes for Ohio, where Ras for the first time shows Obama ahead. And finally, Obama's leads in both Virginia & Florida seem to be stabilizing.

Conclusion: This map being shown by Rasmussen is simply remarkable! If this holds up, Obama wins hands down. Let's make sure this dream becomes reality! :-)

More Sunday Polls

Thanks to Open Left, we can see the early numbers for:

Rasmussen Tracking:
Obama 51%
McCain 45%

Diageo Hotline:
Obama 49%
McCain 41%

My first reaction upon seeing these numbers was worry. Is Obama slipping? But when I then saw DC's post below showing Obama gaining in Research 2000 & Zogby, I stopped worrying?

Why? We may just be seeing some statistical noise today as the polls diverge from each other. Other than that, it's all good today. :-)

The Morning's First Polls

Where should we start? How about Research 2000!

Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 40%

And even better, Open Left has the early numbers for two more trackers!

Rasmussen Tracking:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 45%

Diageo-Hotline Tracking:
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 41%

Rasmussen shows a stable race while both Research 2000 & Diageo-Hotline show Obama gaining. Let's see what Gallup shows, but in the mean time it looks like Obama's post-debate jump continues. :-)

Tonight's States of the Race

Rasmussen has some new state numbers for our viewing pleasure, so let's take a look at them!

Ohio:
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 47%

Virginia:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Missouri:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 47%

Colorado:
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 45%

Florida:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 45%

The bad news: Ohio??!! McCain's still slightly ahead in Ohio? Rasmussen says so, but they contradict just about all other pollsters that have recently shown Obama's numbers rising in The Buckeye State. So is Ras right and everyone else wrong? I don't know, so let's wait and see.

The good news: At this point, Obama's fortunes don't lie with Ohio alone! After all, Ras is yet another pollster showing Obama up by a healthy margin in Florida! If Obama can secure Florida, then it's truly game over... We win! Also, Obama has rebuilt a lead in Colorado while also taking the lead in Missouri. If Obama wins all these states and Virginia, then we're in for a sea of BLUE on November 4!

Conclusion: Now's a good time to give Obama an extra lift up if you're in Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Missouri, or Ohio! And no matter where you are, now is the perfect time to give some $$$ to local parties and Congressional candidates in these states. Let's make sure we maximize on a Big Blue Wave! :-)

Today's States of the Race

Where should we start? Why not Pennsylvania? Then we'll see what Rasmussen has for us. Sound good?

Muhlenberg of Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 40%

Rasmussen:

Nevada-
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

New Hampshire-
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 43%

The bad news: Where?

The good news: Where do I begin?! Obama is really shoring up his strength in Pennsylvania, a state that less than a month ago seemed to be in danger. The same can now be said about New Hampshire as well, as just last week The Granite State looked like a virtual tie. And finally, we have our third consecutive poll showing Obama ahead in The Silver State. Nevada had been hovering around a tie for many months, but Obama is now opening a lead that couldn't come at a better time.

Conclusion: If Pennsylvania and New Hampshire remain as blue as they look now, this can give Obama more freedom to focus time & money on "flipping" former red states like Nevada to the Blue column. So far, the map looks great. Obama just needs to make this into reality on November 4. :-)

More States of the Race

Oh, yeah! We have ourselves some juicy new polling from North Carolina (Rasmussen) and New Mexico (Survey USA)!

North Carolina:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 47%

New Mexico:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 44%

The bad news: None here!

The good news: North Carolina has DEFINITELY shifted toward Obama in the last couple of weeks! If this holds up, Obama will have a HUGE advantage with the electoral map that McCain may not be able to surmount. Meanwhile, New Mexico now looks like a near shoo-in for Obama. His lead in the polls here has consistently been 7-12%, so there's probably little to no reason for McCain to continue spending money here. Obama's winning the Latino vote by 37% and the Native American vote by 33%, so that more than makes up for the close race among Anglo voters.

Conclusion: In the last 72 hours, we've been discovering an electoral map that has shifted dramatically in Obama's favor. Now yes, we still have a month for that to change. But since attitudes are now starting to harden in the final stretch, McCain's options for "game changers" are becoming increasingly limited. If Obama stays strong and on message, Democrats will win! :-)

Today's States of the Race

Courtesy of TPM Election Central, here are the new Fox-Rasmussen state polls out today:

Colorado:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 48%

Florida:
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 47%

Ohio:
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 47%

Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 42%

Virginia:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 47%

The bad news: Ohio seems static. Obama gained ground for a while and brought the race here back to a tie about 10 days ago. But ever since then, there hasn't been much movement. I wonder why, especially with the economy being such an important issue here.

The good news: Whatever movement we haven't seen in Ohio has more than been made up for in Florida! Not that long ago, I was wondering if The Sunshine State was starting to look safe for McCain. But with the ugly economic clouds covering the bright sun here, the state of the race has shifted. Without a doubt, Florida is DEFINITELY winnable for Obama now... Perhaps even more so than Ohio at this point. Obama's investment in Florida is certainly paying off.

Meanwhile, Obama maintains an egde in Virginia and Colorado while also building a larger lead in Pennsylvania. If this keeps up, Obama has a much easier path to 270 EVs than he had just a month ago.

Conclusion: I'm feeling better now that I'm seeing these numbers. :-)

Rasmussen's Take on the States of the Race

OK, here are some new Rasmussen state numbers (via TPM).

West Virginia-
McCain (R) 50%
Obama (D) 42%

Pennsylvania-
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 45%

Ohio-
McCain (R) 47%
Obama (D) 46%

Massachusetts-
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 38%

Arkansas-
McCain (R) 51%
Obama (D) 42%

The bad news: They still show a tough race for Obama in West Virginia, contradicting somewhat the other polls showing a close race.

The good news: Obama's still within 10% in West Virginia, as well as Arkansas. These have been considered "Solid Red States" this year, so perhaps McCain's still in danger in these states. Meanwhile, Ohio remains tight and Obama maintains a slim lead in Pennsylvania. Oh yes, and Massachusetts is safer than ever.

Conclusion: While opportunities close up in some areas on the map while opening up in other areas, it looks overall like Obama's in a good position. And as long as he holds Pennsylvania and keeps Ohio as an option, Obama's still on track to win. :-)

Today's First Trackers

Come & get 'em!

Rasmussen Tracking:

Obama 48%
McCain 48%

Research 2000 Daily Tracking:

Obama 49%
McCain 43%

Nothing too exciting. For some reason, Rasmussen seems to always show a near or exact tie. Meanwhile, Research 2000 seems to be stabilizing with a healthy Obama lead. Which one is right? We'll see when the other new numbers come out today. ;-)

States of the Race: Good, Bad, or Ugly?

Oh my! We have ourselves some new Rasmussen polls, along with a new UNH poll of New Hampshire. Whee, here we go!

University of NH Poll of New Hampshire:

McCain (R) 47%
Obama (D) 45%

Rasmussen:

Florida-
McCain (R) 51%
Obama (D) 46%

Michigan-
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 44%

Ohio-
McCain (R) 50%
Obama (D) 46%

Pennsylvania-
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 45%

Virginia-
McCain (R) 50%
Obama (D) 48%

The bad news: This should be our rude awakening for the "Live Free or Die" State. We'll have to fight hard for New Hampshire, and I hope Obama's ready for that fight.

The good news: Rasmussen confirms that Obama's on the up-swing in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Hopefully, this means our climb there won't be so difficult. Meanwhile, their Florida, Virginia, & Ohio numbers look better than their last polls of these states. Since Ras usually leans more Republican, hopefully this means the other polls showing more of a tied race in these states are correct.

Conclusion: Michigan and Pennsylvania look good, and with hard work & true grit I'm sure we'll win these states. On the other hand, we still have work to do to turn things around in New Hampshire. Overall, it's not bad... And Obama's still in good shape in most of these critical swing states. :-)

The States of the Race: Map Changing?

Yay! Here's a flood of new state polls courtesy TPM Election Central:

SurveyUSA:

Virginia-
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 45%

ARG:

Georgia-
McCain (R) 57%
Obama (D) 39%

New Jersey-
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 42%

South Dakota-
McCain (R) 55%
Obama (D) 39%

Wisconsin-
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 45%

Rasmussen:

Minnesota-
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 44%

North Carolina-
McCain (R) 50%
Obama (D) 47%

Mason-Dixon:

Pennsylvania-
Obama (D) 46%
McCain (R) 44%

The bad news: South Dakota & Georgia look pretty solid for McCain, and Pennsylvania still looks too close for comfort.

The good news: Obama still holds a lead in Pennsylvania, and he seems to be strengthening in Virginia, Minnesota, and New Jersey. In fact, I'd dare to say that New Jersey is pretty darn safe for us now. Meanwhile North Carolina is officially in play, which means Obama has more options to reach 270 EVs.

Conclusion: Even though we've lost a few opportunities in places like Georgia and the Dakotas, that's not too surprising as these are "Solid Red States" that may take a while to purple. But with Obama ahead in Virginia and close in North Carolina, we still have plenty of opportunities to turn the map more than blue enough for Democrats to win! :-)