And Now for ARG...

Yes, they have a new national poll out...

Obama 50%
McCain 45%

Obama's up 1% from the last ARG national poll done earlier this month. So once more, we see Obama inching upward. No wonder why McBush is in full panic mode. ;-)

Today's States of the Race

Yowzer! We have ourselves some new national & state polls from ARG. Let's take a look at what they say is happening.

National-
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 46%

Arkansas-
McCain (R) 53%
Obama (D) 41%

Massachusetts-
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 39%

Oregon-
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 41%

Pennsylvania-
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 46%

Vermont-
Obama (D) 56%
McCain (R) 38%

Nationally, ARG shows a dramatic shift back to Obama. McCain was actually +3 in their last poll from last week, so the financial crisis is having an impact here as the conversation moves back to the economy and Obama regains his footing. But with the state polls, we don't see too many surprises. Obama's slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, still behind in Arkansas, and building a commanding lead in Oregon while also holding strong leads in Vermont and Massachusetts.

Overall, we're looking good. :-)

The States of the Race: Map Changing?

Yay! Here's a flood of new state polls courtesy TPM Election Central:

SurveyUSA:

Virginia-
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 45%

ARG:

Georgia-
McCain (R) 57%
Obama (D) 39%

New Jersey-
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 42%

South Dakota-
McCain (R) 55%
Obama (D) 39%

Wisconsin-
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 45%

Rasmussen:

Minnesota-
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 44%

North Carolina-
McCain (R) 50%
Obama (D) 47%

Mason-Dixon:

Pennsylvania-
Obama (D) 46%
McCain (R) 44%

The bad news: South Dakota & Georgia look pretty solid for McCain, and Pennsylvania still looks too close for comfort.

The good news: Obama still holds a lead in Pennsylvania, and he seems to be strengthening in Virginia, Minnesota, and New Jersey. In fact, I'd dare to say that New Jersey is pretty darn safe for us now. Meanwhile North Carolina is officially in play, which means Obama has more options to reach 270 EVs.

Conclusion: Even though we've lost a few opportunities in places like Georgia and the Dakotas, that's not too surprising as these are "Solid Red States" that may take a while to purple. But with Obama ahead in Virginia and close in North Carolina, we still have plenty of opportunities to turn the map more than blue enough for Democrats to win! :-)

The States of the Race Are Looking Good

Oh my! We have ourselves a flood of new state polls from ARG and Public Policy Polling.

The bad news: ARG confirms the "McSurge" effect in Ohio, North Carolina, and Colorado.

The good news: ARG shows an Obama rebound in New Mexico and a surprisingly close race in Missouri, Montana, and West Virginia. Oh yes, and Public Policy Polling confirms the Obama rebound in Virginia is for real.

Overall: The states of the race look quite good. :-)

ARG-

Colorado:
McCain 46%
Obama 44%

Missouri:
McCain 50%
Obama 45%

Montana:
McCain 49%
Obama 47%

Nevada:
McCain 49%
Obama 46%

New Mexico:
Obama 51%
McCain 44%

North Carolina:
McCain 52%
Obama 41%

Ohio:
McCain 50%
Obama 44%

West Virginia:
McCain 49%
Obama 45%

Public Policy Polling-

Virginia:
Obama 48%
McCain 46%

The Summary: Obama still has many paths to 270+ electoral votes while McCain's path is only one. McCain needs to hold nearly all of Bush's red states, but the polls tell us that this scenario may not happen. Obama, meanwhile, can win by either sweeping all three Western swing states (Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico), winning at least two of those three states plus Iowa, winning at least one of those three states and Virginia, and/or winning Iowa and Virginia. If I had to choose which situation looks more plausible for victory, I'd choose Obama's in a heartbeat. :-)