Saturday, October 4, 2008

First Tracking Polls of the Day Out

Saturday's Rasmussen and Research 2000/Daily Kos data are out. Polls, of course, have three day rolling tallies, doggoneit, so these polls are the first to show Americans' reactions to the vice presidential debate since one-third of the participants responded after the much watched event on Thursday night, you betcha.

Rasmussen suggests the race look like this:

Obama 51
McCain 45

Rasmussen calls the race "stable" and observes:
For each of the past nine days, Obama has been at 50% or 51% and McCain has been at 44% or 45%.
He goes on to note
The stability of these results suggests that the McCain campaign faces a the very steep challenge in the remaining few weeks of Election 2008.
Research 2000/Daily Kos, however, suggests that Obama's upward progress has not stopped. Today's results show Obama has increased his margin over McCain by one point since yesterday:

Obama 52
McCain 40

The range yesterday was 51-40. Comments dkos poll analyst DemFromCT:
On successive days in the R2K poll, Obama was up +11 Wed, +12 Thurs and +13 Fri, which is post-debate and Obama strongest day yet (MoE +/- 5.1 for individual days.)
He also observes:
In the end, VP debates do not move presidential votes. With McCain trailing, too bad for him. He was the big loser Thursday night. Watching him sweat Indiana and North Carolina, let alone Florida and Ohio, tells you what you need to know.
Election Day is one day from today.


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