Thursday, October 2, 2008

This Morning's States of the Race

Brought to you by Insider Advantage (via TPM Election Central)!

McCain (R) 50%
Obama (D) 44%

Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 47%

Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 46%

The bad news: Where? Georgia, perhaps?

The good news: If Georgia's within single digits, then McCain's in deep sh*t! And with yet another poll showing Obama ahead just to the south in Florida, the sun's really shining on Democrats here! Oh yes, and how about those sunny numbers from Nevada? They may be The Silver State, but Obama may actually win "The Gold Medal" thanks to Nevada!

Conclusion: Obama now looks to win all the Gore 2000 states... Also known as all the Kerry 2004 states - New Hampshire + Iowa + New Mexico. This makes for 260 electoral votes (EVs). If Obama also holds New Hampshire, that brings him up to 264 EVs.

So where can Obama find the additional 6 EVs to put him over the top? Let's start with Nevada. Nevada's 5 EVs bring Obama to 269 EVs, so he needs only 1 more EV to win. Any combination of Colorado, Virginia, Florida, and/or Ohio will take him there.

See why it helps Democrats to be able to compete in all these states? ;-)


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