Wednesday, September 17, 2008

The States of the Race Are Looking Good

Oh my! We have ourselves a flood of new state polls from ARG and Public Policy Polling.

The bad news: ARG confirms the "McSurge" effect in Ohio, North Carolina, and Colorado.

The good news: ARG shows an Obama rebound in New Mexico and a surprisingly close race in Missouri, Montana, and West Virginia. Oh yes, and Public Policy Polling confirms the Obama rebound in Virginia is for real.

Overall: The states of the race look quite good. :-)


McCain 46%
Obama 44%

McCain 50%
Obama 45%

McCain 49%
Obama 47%

McCain 49%
Obama 46%

New Mexico:
Obama 51%
McCain 44%

North Carolina:
McCain 52%
Obama 41%

McCain 50%
Obama 44%

West Virginia:
McCain 49%
Obama 45%

Public Policy Polling-

Obama 48%
McCain 46%

The Summary: Obama still has many paths to 270+ electoral votes while McCain's path is only one. McCain needs to hold nearly all of Bush's red states, but the polls tell us that this scenario may not happen. Obama, meanwhile, can win by either sweeping all three Western swing states (Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico), winning at least two of those three states plus Iowa, winning at least one of those three states and Virginia, and/or winning Iowa and Virginia. If I had to choose which situation looks more plausible for victory, I'd choose Obama's in a heartbeat. :-)


Anonymous said...

Are these polls accurate or are they skewed like the national ones that don't reflect eleven million new democrat voters.

In Colorado alone Democrats in the primaries registered more voters than voted in the ENTIRE general election of 2004.

atdnext said...


Honestly, we won't know for sure until election day. However, a good way to figure out now what these pollsters are thinking is to look at the internals. I know some pollsters, like Gallup and Rasmussen, have recently adjusted their numbers to include more Republicans than they did a month ago. Meanwhile, other pollsters include a larger number of Democrats, reflecting the all the new registrations. Each of these pollsters has its own turnout model, and we won't really know until election day which model is the most accurate.

PJHanniver said...

I don't understand why these polls are "good" when McCain is ahead in almost every state listed.

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