It was all about The Sunshine State in 2000... And PPP hints that it may be all about this state again in 2008.
Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 47%
Still, there's a difference this year. Unlike Gore & Kerry in the past, Obama does not need Florida to win. Still, this state is critical for us to win. Why?
I have a hunch that what happens in Florida may determine how big of a win Democrats have on November 4. If Obama narrowly loses Florida & Democrats stay even (probably trading in FL-16 for FL-24) or pick up just one net House seat, I think we'll probably be in for a comfortable but still fairly close 3-6%, ~300 EV Obama win along with a moderate 5-7 Senate seat pickup & 10-20 House seat pickup. Not bad, and I certainly won't cry. But still, we may later grumble about missed opportunities.
But if Obama wins Florida & Democrats pick up a net 2-4 House seats here, expect a landslide. Because Florida's run consistently slightly behind the national average, an Obama win here on November 4 will likely mean a larger 6-12% popular vote & 330+ EV national Obama landslide win AND a hearty 7-10 Senate seat pickup & 20-30 House seat pickup. Now do you see what I mean?
Florida makes the difference between a narrower Democratic victory & a wider Democratic victory. While I'm satisfied with either scenario, I obviously want us to work as hard as possible to win as BIG as possible. Now's our chance, so let's take it! :-D
Showing posts with label Public Policy Polling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Public Policy Polling. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Colorado? Yes, We WILL!
Wow! Public Policy Polling has a new Colorado poll out, and my is it pretty! Here, let's take a look.
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 42%
Oh my, so Obama now has a healthy 10% lead in Colorado! And why is this? First, observe Latinos choosing Obama over McCain by an overwhelming 71-22 margin. Obama's margin was only 57-36 three weeks ago, so when combined with the stable 49-48 Obama-McCain margin with the white vote Obama has a larger overall lead.
Also a full 60% of voters list the economy as their top concern, up from 51% three weeks ago. And among these economy-minded voters, Obama has a very strong 60-34 lead over McCain. Obviously, Obama's clear & timely economic message is continuing to win over voters.
And finally, Sarah Palin's many woes continue to drag McCain down. She now has a 36-49 favorable-unfavorable rating, and this is just as the "Troopergate" report from Alaska is hitting the front pages in the mainstream media. It seems that the more familiar voters become with Palin, the less they like her.
So what can we do? Let's help push Obama over the top in the Rocky Mountain state! Oh yes, and C4O All-Star Mark Udall is ahead 49-39 in the Senate race here, so let's help him win as well! :-)
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 42%
Oh my, so Obama now has a healthy 10% lead in Colorado! And why is this? First, observe Latinos choosing Obama over McCain by an overwhelming 71-22 margin. Obama's margin was only 57-36 three weeks ago, so when combined with the stable 49-48 Obama-McCain margin with the white vote Obama has a larger overall lead.
Also a full 60% of voters list the economy as their top concern, up from 51% three weeks ago. And among these economy-minded voters, Obama has a very strong 60-34 lead over McCain. Obviously, Obama's clear & timely economic message is continuing to win over voters.
And finally, Sarah Palin's many woes continue to drag McCain down. She now has a 36-49 favorable-unfavorable rating, and this is just as the "Troopergate" report from Alaska is hitting the front pages in the mainstream media. It seems that the more familiar voters become with Palin, the less they like her.
So what can we do? Let's help push Obama over the top in the Rocky Mountain state! Oh yes, and C4O All-Star Mark Udall is ahead 49-39 in the Senate race here, so let's help him win as well! :-)
Thursday, October 9, 2008
The Virginia Poll
Yes, Public Policy Polling (PPP) has now released the Virginia poll that everyone's been talking about!
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 43%
This is the largest lead ever recorded for Obama by PPP in Virginia. Obama's narrowing McCain's lead with white voters while also expanding his lead in Northern Virginia and taking a commanding lead among those voters most concerned about the economic crisis. If these numbers hold, Obama's in a great position to turn The Old Dominion blue! :-)
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 43%
This is the largest lead ever recorded for Obama by PPP in Virginia. Obama's narrowing McCain's lead with white voters while also expanding his lead in Northern Virginia and taking a commanding lead among those voters most concerned about the economic crisis. If these numbers hold, Obama's in a great position to turn The Old Dominion blue! :-)
Monday, October 6, 2008
More States of the Race
Fresh from Political Wire!
Democracy Corps of Ohio:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 43%
Public Policy Polling of North Carolina:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 44%
The bad news: Can't find any here!
The good news: Obama +6 in BOTH Ohio AND North Carolina?! Whoa! We have more polls confirming an Obama lead in both crucial swing states. Obama continues to expand his electoral vote lead as he offers real solutions on the economic crisis while McCain rummages through the bottom of the barrel to toss everything INCLUDING the kitchen sink at Obama.
Conclusion: Barack Obama is now not only pulling away in the national polls, but with the electoral map as well! Obama now stands a good chance of winning in an electoral landslide. We just need to keep up the good work, and the Obama campaign needs to stay on the offense and keep offering real solutions on the economy... And we'll win BIG!! :-)
Democracy Corps of Ohio:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 43%
Public Policy Polling of North Carolina:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 44%
The bad news: Can't find any here!
The good news: Obama +6 in BOTH Ohio AND North Carolina?! Whoa! We have more polls confirming an Obama lead in both crucial swing states. Obama continues to expand his electoral vote lead as he offers real solutions on the economic crisis while McCain rummages through the bottom of the barrel to toss everything INCLUDING the kitchen sink at Obama.
Conclusion: Barack Obama is now not only pulling away in the national polls, but with the electoral map as well! Obama now stands a good chance of winning in an electoral landslide. We just need to keep up the good work, and the Obama campaign needs to stay on the offense and keep offering real solutions on the economy... And we'll win BIG!! :-)
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Bringing Home Michigan!
Public Policy Polling has a new Michigan poll... One that you just have to see!
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 41%
In just 3 weeks, Obama's gone from +1 to +10! Why? The economy is Issue #1, and a HUGE gender gap has opened.
This is yet another poll showing Michigan moving strongly to Obama. Let's hope this keeps up. :-)
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 41%
In just 3 weeks, Obama's gone from +1 to +10! Why? The economy is Issue #1, and a HUGE gender gap has opened.
This is yet another poll showing Michigan moving strongly to Obama. Let's hope this keeps up. :-)
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Florida Turning Blue?
Public Policy Polling says it can happen this year.
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 46%
Why is this happening? Simple. It's the economy again, stupid! The economic turbulence is the #1 issue in Florida, and Obama is favored 55-40 on the economy. Oh yes, and the "Palinpalooza" debacle is also hurting McCain. Floridians now narrowly say 41-40 that they're less likely to vote for McCain because he picked Palin, which is down from 45-34 saying they're more likely.
So what does this mean? Florida's seriously in play for Obama! As long as Obama continues to make connections on the economy and turns away McCain's distractions, Florida may end up going blue this year! :-)
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 46%
Why is this happening? Simple. It's the economy again, stupid! The economic turbulence is the #1 issue in Florida, and Obama is favored 55-40 on the economy. Oh yes, and the "Palinpalooza" debacle is also hurting McCain. Floridians now narrowly say 41-40 that they're less likely to vote for McCain because he picked Palin, which is down from 45-34 saying they're more likely.
So what does this mean? Florida's seriously in play for Obama! As long as Obama continues to make connections on the economy and turns away McCain's distractions, Florida may end up going blue this year! :-)
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
The States of the Race Are Looking Good
Oh my! We have ourselves a flood of new state polls from ARG and Public Policy Polling.
The bad news: ARG confirms the "McSurge" effect in Ohio, North Carolina, and Colorado.
The good news: ARG shows an Obama rebound in New Mexico and a surprisingly close race in Missouri, Montana, and West Virginia. Oh yes, and Public Policy Polling confirms the Obama rebound in Virginia is for real.
Overall: The states of the race look quite good. :-)
ARG-
Colorado:
McCain 46%
Obama 44%
Missouri:
McCain 50%
Obama 45%
Montana:
McCain 49%
Obama 47%
Nevada:
McCain 49%
Obama 46%
New Mexico:
Obama 51%
McCain 44%
North Carolina:
McCain 52%
Obama 41%
Ohio:
McCain 50%
Obama 44%
West Virginia:
McCain 49%
Obama 45%
Public Policy Polling-
Virginia:
Obama 48%
McCain 46%
The Summary: Obama still has many paths to 270+ electoral votes while McCain's path is only one. McCain needs to hold nearly all of Bush's red states, but the polls tell us that this scenario may not happen. Obama, meanwhile, can win by either sweeping all three Western swing states (Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico), winning at least two of those three states plus Iowa, winning at least one of those three states and Virginia, and/or winning Iowa and Virginia. If I had to choose which situation looks more plausible for victory, I'd choose Obama's in a heartbeat. :-)
The bad news: ARG confirms the "McSurge" effect in Ohio, North Carolina, and Colorado.
The good news: ARG shows an Obama rebound in New Mexico and a surprisingly close race in Missouri, Montana, and West Virginia. Oh yes, and Public Policy Polling confirms the Obama rebound in Virginia is for real.
Overall: The states of the race look quite good. :-)
ARG-
Colorado:
McCain 46%
Obama 44%
Missouri:
McCain 50%
Obama 45%
Montana:
McCain 49%
Obama 47%
Nevada:
McCain 49%
Obama 46%
New Mexico:
Obama 51%
McCain 44%
North Carolina:
McCain 52%
Obama 41%
Ohio:
McCain 50%
Obama 44%
West Virginia:
McCain 49%
Obama 45%
Public Policy Polling-
Virginia:
Obama 48%
McCain 46%
The Summary: Obama still has many paths to 270+ electoral votes while McCain's path is only one. McCain needs to hold nearly all of Bush's red states, but the polls tell us that this scenario may not happen. Obama, meanwhile, can win by either sweeping all three Western swing states (Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico), winning at least two of those three states plus Iowa, winning at least one of those three states and Virginia, and/or winning Iowa and Virginia. If I had to choose which situation looks more plausible for victory, I'd choose Obama's in a heartbeat. :-)
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