About 2 weeks ago, we talked about the rising Democratic tide in The Southwest. Now, I want for us to discuss what's happening in The Northwest. Believe it or not, we have plenty of opportunities up north as well.
Want to come along with me as we look at where we can win in 2010 and beyond?
Let's start in Wyoming. While John McCain beat Barack Obama by 32%, it was an improvement over Bush's 40% margin of victory in 2004. And believe it or not, Wyoming voters twice elected Democrat Dave Freudenthal as Governor while Democrat Gary Trauner twice lost the At-Large House seat by surprisingly narrow margins. We have an opportunity in 2010 to win both races, as Freudenthal is termed out and newly elected GOP Rep. Cynthia Lummis doesn't seem much more popular than outgoing GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin. I see both races as "Leans Republican" now, but that can change if we find good candidates.
Unlike Wyoming, Montana is rapidly trending Democratic. Bush won the state by 20% in 2004, but McCain could only muster a 3% win and Obama may be the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992 to win here in 2012. And better yet, Montana now has 2 Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, and a split legislature. But for some reason, incumbent GOP Rep. Dennis Rehberg is still in office. If we find a strong Democrat to challenge Rehberg in 2010, I think we can make this "Likely Republican" seat more competitive.
Now Idaho may not be trending Democratic as quickly as Montana, but the state is moving our way. Bush's 39% win in 2004 was reduced to a 25% McCain win this year. And better yet, Democrat Walt Minnick scored a stunning upset win over incumbent GOP Rep. Bill Sali in ID-01. But even though Minnick won this year, we must remember that this House seat will be the top GOP target in 2010. This race looks like a "Toss-up" now, and we'll need to work hard to hold ID-01 while continuing to make electoral gains in Idaho.
While all the other Northwest states previously mentioned still tilt toward the GOP, Washington state is quite the different game. Barack Obama won here by 17%, a great improvement over Kerry's narrower 7% win in 2004. Meanwhile, Democratic Governor Chris Gregoire won reelection this year while Democratic majorities in both house of the legislature, both Democratic Senators, and all 6 Democratic House Reps. look pretty safe. However, we have a chance to pick up another House seat in the eastern suburban Seattle WA-08 district. Incumbent GOP Rep. Dave Reichert only narrowly won reelection in 2006 & 2008 in a district that both Kerry & Obama won. If we perhaps find a candidate with legislative experience to challenge Reichert in 2010, we can finally win this "Toss-up" race.
As you can see, The Northwest is undergoing many of the same changes being seen Southwest. Wyoming and Idaho may still look strongly Republican, but Montana has rapidly become a swing state as Oregon and Washington have gone from simply leaning Democratic to strongly Democratic. As the population grows, diversifies, and changes from rural to suburban & urban, Democrats are rising to victory.
As long as demographics change and voters continue to care less about "the culture wars" and more about issues like energy, environmental preservation, and economic development, Democrats will win. That's why our party must continue to invest in winning The West. So are you ready to win?
Showing posts with label Oregon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oregon. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Friday, October 17, 2008
The Morning's States of the Race
Rasmussen has new state polls out this morning. Want to take a look?
Ohio:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 49%
Missouri:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 46%
Oregon:
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 41%
The bad news: Ugh, Ohio. For some reason, Obama's numbers in Ohio have been worse than the rest of the Upper Midwest region and next-door Pennsylvania.
The good news: MISSOURI??!! Obama's up beyond the margin of error in Missouri?! This is nothing short of spectacular! If Obama wins Missouri, he wins the election hands down. Oh yes, and I like me those Oregon numbers! Stick a fork in the McBush campaign in the Pacific Northwest, Obama will win Oregon & Washington.
Conclusion: Ohio concerns me. I just don't get why Obama isn't breaking through as much there as all its neighboring states. Still, Missouri & Oregon are excellent news! If Obama can carry formerly "Red States" like Florida & Missouri, then he won't need Ohio.
Ohio:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 49%
Missouri:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 46%
Oregon:
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 41%
The bad news: Ugh, Ohio. For some reason, Obama's numbers in Ohio have been worse than the rest of the Upper Midwest region and next-door Pennsylvania.
The good news: MISSOURI??!! Obama's up beyond the margin of error in Missouri?! This is nothing short of spectacular! If Obama wins Missouri, he wins the election hands down. Oh yes, and I like me those Oregon numbers! Stick a fork in the McBush campaign in the Pacific Northwest, Obama will win Oregon & Washington.
Conclusion: Ohio concerns me. I just don't get why Obama isn't breaking through as much there as all its neighboring states. Still, Missouri & Oregon are excellent news! If Obama can carry formerly "Red States" like Florida & Missouri, then he won't need Ohio.
Friday, September 19, 2008
The States of the Race: Whoa!
We have some new numbers coming in this morning that are sure to knock your socks off. Please sit down as I reveal the new Portland Tribune (Oregon), Strategic Vision, and Insider Advantage state polls (all others via Political Wire).
Oregon-
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 40%
Strategic Vision:
New Jersey-
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 43%
Washington-
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 42%
Insider Advantage:
Virginia-
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 46%
Colorado-
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 41%
The bad news: OK, let's start with Strategic Vision. They're a Republican polling firm, so I'm not too surprised that they show some fairly ugly numbers in Washington and New Jersey. If other polls confirm this, we can start worrying. Otherwise, they're most likely outliers.
The good news: Now, let's move on to those Portland Tribune poll. The new Oregon poll contradicts Rasmussen's small 4 point lead for Obama, but it also goes a little beyond the other polls showing a 7-9 point advantage for Obama. So most likely, the race is somewhere between Rasmussen and Portland Tribune. This would most likely mean Oregon's now leaning Democratic (as in no longer a toss-up state), and perhaps Obama's reason to continue campaigning here is to help downballot (like Jeff Merkley for Senate).
And finally, Insider Advantage... Yowzer! Their Virginia poll shows a tiny McCain lead, which mostly falls in line with other polls of this state (a range of McCain +2 to Obama +4). However, their Colorado poll looks quite surprising. No other poll of this state has shown either Obama or McCain with a double-digit advantage, so I'm a little tempted to call this an outlier. But since Insider Advantage usually has a good track record, I don't want to just flippantly dismiss them... Let's wait to see if other polls confirm their findings.
Conclusion: Whoa! ;-)
Oregon-
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 40%
Strategic Vision:
New Jersey-
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 43%
Washington-
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 42%
Insider Advantage:
Virginia-
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 46%
Colorado-
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 41%
The bad news: OK, let's start with Strategic Vision. They're a Republican polling firm, so I'm not too surprised that they show some fairly ugly numbers in Washington and New Jersey. If other polls confirm this, we can start worrying. Otherwise, they're most likely outliers.
The good news: Now, let's move on to those Portland Tribune poll. The new Oregon poll contradicts Rasmussen's small 4 point lead for Obama, but it also goes a little beyond the other polls showing a 7-9 point advantage for Obama. So most likely, the race is somewhere between Rasmussen and Portland Tribune. This would most likely mean Oregon's now leaning Democratic (as in no longer a toss-up state), and perhaps Obama's reason to continue campaigning here is to help downballot (like Jeff Merkley for Senate).
And finally, Insider Advantage... Yowzer! Their Virginia poll shows a tiny McCain lead, which mostly falls in line with other polls of this state (a range of McCain +2 to Obama +4). However, their Colorado poll looks quite surprising. No other poll of this state has shown either Obama or McCain with a double-digit advantage, so I'm a little tempted to call this an outlier. But since Insider Advantage usually has a good track record, I don't want to just flippantly dismiss them... Let's wait to see if other polls confirm their findings.
Conclusion: Whoa! ;-)
Thursday, September 18, 2008
On Winning the West: PART 2!!
(Proudly cross-posted at CCN & Swing State Project)
Last week, I began analyzing the state of the races out West. And ever since then, I've received feedback about me not including all the competitive races out here. And to all of you fretting, I say... Don't worry!
Because we have so many opportunities to not just pick up electoral votes for Obama, but also additional House and Senate seats, I just couldn't pack them all into one diary. So today, without further adieu, I give you Part 2 of "On Winning the West"!
OK, there's no denying it. Colorado is one of the top swing states this year. Colorado is one of our best opportunities outside of New Mexico for a Western pick-up this year, but it's also a state where the Republicans are going for broke as they're doing everything they can to prevent us from turning the state blue. But because we have the facts, the issues, and the momentum on our side, we have a great opportunity to not just turn Colorado blue on the Presidential level, but also make the state's Congressional Delegation bluer as well.
Mark Udall is currently a Member of Congress representing the Boulder area, and he's the Democrat running for Senate here. Udall has a strong record of standing up for the values we believe in as well as working across the aisle to make change happen. He's been a leader on energy and environmental issues, and he's really the perfect fit for Coloradans on the issues they care about most. Despite a recent barrage of ugly attacks, Udall has the edge in this race. Still, our friends at the DSCC are taking the GOP threat seriously... And we should, too. As long as we have Udall's back, we can win here.
Another great opportunity for us in Colorado lies with Betsy Markey in the state's 4th Congressional District. This area has traditionally been more Republican-leaning, but that's quickly changing. The incumbent anti-environment, anti-choice, anti-gay, anti-immigrant, anti-working-class Marilyn Musgrave is so extremist that she couldn't even get 50% last time she ran for reelection. And already, Markey has taken the lead in the last indpendent poll done in the district. So far, it looks like the people here would rather see someone who's ready to work for them like Betsy Markey rather than face another two years with Musgrave. And with the DCCC and EMILY'S List making a move here, we know this is a real race that we can win.
Now I know we can win Oregon for Obama. It's a pretty reliably blue state, although the polls are often close here. With some hard work and a strong message, we can not only keep Oregon blue for Obama... But also send another Democrat to the Senate!
Jeff Merkley is the Democrat running for Senate here. He has a strong record as Oregon's State House Speaker of bringing all sides to the table to pass legislation that has made a difference in people's lives while still holding true to his progressive values. That's why a multitude of progressive advocates, such as Oregon's labor unions, the Sierra Club, the League of Conservation Voters, Planned Parenthood PAC, and NARAL Pro-Choice America have all endorsed Merkley. Now the Republican incumbent Gordon Smith may claim to be "bipartisan", but we know he's just another Bush-Cheney-McCain enabler. The polls here may be close, but withour help and the DSCC's help Merkley can win.
So will you join us in helping these good Democrats win? We can win the West... As long as we stand up and fight! So will you fight with us? If we want change, we need to suppport it and work for it. So come on, let's bring some positive change to the West! :-)
Last week, I began analyzing the state of the races out West. And ever since then, I've received feedback about me not including all the competitive races out here. And to all of you fretting, I say... Don't worry!
Because we have so many opportunities to not just pick up electoral votes for Obama, but also additional House and Senate seats, I just couldn't pack them all into one diary. So today, without further adieu, I give you Part 2 of "On Winning the West"!
OK, there's no denying it. Colorado is one of the top swing states this year. Colorado is one of our best opportunities outside of New Mexico for a Western pick-up this year, but it's also a state where the Republicans are going for broke as they're doing everything they can to prevent us from turning the state blue. But because we have the facts, the issues, and the momentum on our side, we have a great opportunity to not just turn Colorado blue on the Presidential level, but also make the state's Congressional Delegation bluer as well.
Mark Udall is currently a Member of Congress representing the Boulder area, and he's the Democrat running for Senate here. Udall has a strong record of standing up for the values we believe in as well as working across the aisle to make change happen. He's been a leader on energy and environmental issues, and he's really the perfect fit for Coloradans on the issues they care about most. Despite a recent barrage of ugly attacks, Udall has the edge in this race. Still, our friends at the DSCC are taking the GOP threat seriously... And we should, too. As long as we have Udall's back, we can win here.
Another great opportunity for us in Colorado lies with Betsy Markey in the state's 4th Congressional District. This area has traditionally been more Republican-leaning, but that's quickly changing. The incumbent anti-environment, anti-choice, anti-gay, anti-immigrant, anti-working-class Marilyn Musgrave is so extremist that she couldn't even get 50% last time she ran for reelection. And already, Markey has taken the lead in the last indpendent poll done in the district. So far, it looks like the people here would rather see someone who's ready to work for them like Betsy Markey rather than face another two years with Musgrave. And with the DCCC and EMILY'S List making a move here, we know this is a real race that we can win.
Now I know we can win Oregon for Obama. It's a pretty reliably blue state, although the polls are often close here. With some hard work and a strong message, we can not only keep Oregon blue for Obama... But also send another Democrat to the Senate!
Jeff Merkley is the Democrat running for Senate here. He has a strong record as Oregon's State House Speaker of bringing all sides to the table to pass legislation that has made a difference in people's lives while still holding true to his progressive values. That's why a multitude of progressive advocates, such as Oregon's labor unions, the Sierra Club, the League of Conservation Voters, Planned Parenthood PAC, and NARAL Pro-Choice America have all endorsed Merkley. Now the Republican incumbent Gordon Smith may claim to be "bipartisan", but we know he's just another Bush-Cheney-McCain enabler. The polls here may be close, but withour help and the DSCC's help Merkley can win.
So will you join us in helping these good Democrats win? We can win the West... As long as we stand up and fight! So will you fight with us? If we want change, we need to suppport it and work for it. So come on, let's bring some positive change to the West! :-)
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