Obama Returning West

I guess I'll need to be in Las Vegas some time this spring. It looks like President Obama hasn't forgotten The West.

The Rest of the West: Part 1

About 2 weeks ago, we talked about the rising Democratic tide in The Southwest. Now, I want for us to discuss what's happening in The Northwest. Believe it or not, we have plenty of opportunities up north as well.

Want to come along with me as we look at where we can win in 2010 and beyond?

Let's start in Wyoming. While John McCain beat Barack Obama by 32%, it was an improvement over Bush's 40% margin of victory in 2004. And believe it or not, Wyoming voters twice elected Democrat Dave Freudenthal as Governor while Democrat Gary Trauner twice lost the At-Large House seat by surprisingly narrow margins. We have an opportunity in 2010 to win both races, as Freudenthal is termed out and newly elected GOP Rep. Cynthia Lummis doesn't seem much more popular than outgoing GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin. I see both races as "Leans Republican" now, but that can change if we find good candidates.

Unlike Wyoming, Montana is rapidly trending Democratic. Bush won the state by 20% in 2004, but McCain could only muster a 3% win and Obama may be the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992 to win here in 2012. And better yet, Montana now has 2 Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, and a split legislature. But for some reason, incumbent GOP Rep. Dennis Rehberg is still in office. If we find a strong Democrat to challenge Rehberg in 2010, I think we can make this "Likely Republican" seat more competitive.

Now Idaho may not be trending Democratic as quickly as Montana, but the state is moving our way. Bush's 39% win in 2004 was reduced to a 25% McCain win this year. And better yet, Democrat Walt Minnick scored a stunning upset win over incumbent GOP Rep. Bill Sali in ID-01. But even though Minnick won this year, we must remember that this House seat will be the top GOP target in 2010. This race looks like a "Toss-up" now, and we'll need to work hard to hold ID-01 while continuing to make electoral gains in Idaho.

While all the other Northwest states previously mentioned still tilt toward the GOP, Washington state is quite the different game. Barack Obama won here by 17%, a great improvement over Kerry's narrower 7% win in 2004. Meanwhile, Democratic Governor Chris Gregoire won reelection this year while Democratic majorities in both house of the legislature, both Democratic Senators, and all 6 Democratic House Reps. look pretty safe. However, we have a chance to pick up another House seat in the eastern suburban Seattle WA-08 district. Incumbent GOP Rep. Dave Reichert only narrowly won reelection in 2006 & 2008 in a district that both Kerry & Obama won. If we perhaps find a candidate with legislative experience to challenge Reichert in 2010, we can finally win this "Toss-up" race.

As you can see, The Northwest is undergoing many of the same changes being seen Southwest. Wyoming and Idaho may still look strongly Republican, but Montana has rapidly become a swing state as Oregon and Washington have gone from simply leaning Democratic to strongly Democratic. As the population grows, diversifies, and changes from rural to suburban & urban, Democrats are rising to victory.

As long as demographics change and voters continue to care less about "the culture wars" and more about issues like energy, environmental preservation, and economic development, Democrats will win. That's why our party must continue to invest in winning The West. So are you ready to win?

Looking Southwest for 2010 & Beyond

This year has been quite transformative for The West, especially The Southwest. Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico have gone from Red to Blue. Utah and Arizona don't look quite as Red as they used to. Oh yes, and California now looks bluer than ever before.

But will this last? Will The Southwest continue to trend blue? And can Democrats continue to make gains here?

Honestly, I think so. Why? First off, demographics are shifting our way. Latinos continue to grow in population and political influence. "Creative Class" professionals continue to breathe new life into the region's urban areas. The area has changed, and the changes favor us.

And because the the demographics of The Southwest has changed, so has the politics. The old "rugged individualism" and "libertarian conservatism" that used to define the region's politics have faded away as these formerly rural states are becoming much more urban and suburban. After all, why would young parents in Henderson, NV, worry about whether or not they can own assault rifles when they have to make plans for their kids' college education, keep their kids safe from dangerous air and water pollution, and be able to afford a home and food and health care? Why would a couple of biotech researchers in Aurora, CO, feel threatened by public park land in the state when they're worried about keeping their jobs?

See where I'm going? The West has changed. I know. I've witnessed how my native Orange County, CA, has changed from "John Birch Society" embarrassment to dynamic urban environment. I've seen firsthand how Las Vegas has transformed from small casino town to world-class destination. I've been amazed by how the entire region has changed, and how we all saw this on full display as Democrats won across the board here.

So what should we do next? Let's first talk about Nevada. Barack Obama won here by 12% (vs. a 2% Bush win in 2004), Democrat Dina Titus defeated GOP incumbent Jon Porter for Congress in NV-03, and Democrats now control both houses of the state legislature. So what next? We keep Majority Leader Harry Reid in the Senate and put a good Democrat in the Governor's seat to replace the disgraced GOP incumbent Jim Gibbons, as both are quite doable. I'd now peg the Senate race as "Leans Democratic" and the Governor's race as "Toss-up". Oh yes, and we'd be wise to take advantage of Obama's possible 2012 coattails here by finding a legitimate challenger to GOP Senator John Ensign.

Colorado was also good to us this year, as Obama won by 9% (vs. a 5% Bush win in 2004), Tom Udall won a formerly GOP Senate seat, and Betsy Markey unseated GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave in CO-04. So what can we do now? I'd peg incumbent Senator Ken Salazar's 2010 race as "Likely Democratic" now, but we should keep a close watch to make sure we win again. And of course, we'll need to make sure Obama wins again in 2012.

But what about California? Obama won here by a whopping 24% (vs. a 10% Kerry win in 2004) and Democrats already have both Senate seats & 33 of 53 House seats. What more can we have? How about the Governor's seat, which I already consider "Leans Democratic" as the GOP has no strong candidate to succeed Arnold Schwarzenegger? And how about winning the "Toss-up" House races in CA-03, CA-04, and CA-44 in 2010, where we came so close this year? Same goes for the "Leans Republican" races in CA-46 and CA-50?

And what about Arizona? McCain won his home state by 9% (vs. an 11% Bush win in 2004), but Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick still managed to win a formerly GOP seat in AZ-01. So is there still potential here? I think so. Without the McCain home state edge, Obama can win here in 2012. And better yet, we can beat McCain in 2010, as well as fellow GOP Senator Jon Kyl in 2012, with the right candidates. Same goes with the 2010 Governor's race, which can be a "Toss-up" if we can have a quality candidate run against newly minted GOP Governor Jan Brewer.

So where do we go from here out West? We win! Ready to win?

Whoops...

Nevada Rethuglicans look to be in a tailspin! Their one possibly legitimate challenger to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid looks like he's about to be indicted for mishandling state college savings funds. And they want to complain about supposed "Democratic corruption"? What about the rot plaguing their own house?

Haha. Give 'em hell, Harry. ;-)

Nevada Voting Early... And Turning Blue?

Early voting has begun in Nevada. I should know. I've been calling Nevada voters & asking them to vote early since Thursday. (Don't worry, I'll update you on that later today.)

But even though early voting has just begun, is it already game over for McBush & Failin'? The Silver State's premier political reporter, Jon Ralston, is now starting to think so. Here's what The Las Vegas Sun's columnist has to say about the state of the race in Nevada today.

But more and more, the state is looking as if it leans toward Barack Obama, no matter what the overmatched McCain folks do here. There are 100,000-plus more registered Democrats than Republicans in Nevada now. That should be an insurmountable barrier. If its not, and McCain wins Nevada, the Democrats will have to go into hiding.

Oh yes, and check out the early early voting returns!

Of the 25,000-plus who voted early, 15,644 were Democrats and 5,721 were Republicans, according to Clark County Election Department records. If that trend holds, this wont be a wave; it'll be a tsunami. Republicans had a lead on the first day of mail ballot tallying -- 5,407 to 4,947. So overall, its 20,591 to 11,128 [in the Democrats' favor].

Yes! We're almost there! Keep up the good work, and we'll turn this & more formerly "Red States" blue! :-D

States of the Race: Good News Out West!

Hot off the presses! Rasmussen has two new polls in two crucial Western swing states. Here, let's take a look!

Nevada:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 45%

Colorado:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 45%

The bad news: None here!

The good news: Obama is solidifying his leads out West! The closer to the election we get, the better Democrats are poised to win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico! At this point, both Colorado & New Mexico show strong leans toward Obama while Nevada is starting to show an Obama lean as well. With Obama winning all the Kerry states, Iowa, and these three Western Swing States, Obama has secured 278 electoral votes and a win on election day!

Conclusion: PLEASE, PLEASE DON'T STOP WORKING FOR VICTORY! Please keep donating, keep volunteering, keep going until we win! I post these poll numbers not to lull us into complacency, but to encourage us to work harder for victory. We're almost there now, so let's make it happen! :-)

Colorado? Yes, We WILL!

Wow! Public Policy Polling has a new Colorado poll out, and my is it pretty! Here, let's take a look.

Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 42%

Oh my, so Obama now has a healthy 10% lead in Colorado! And why is this? First, observe Latinos choosing Obama over McCain by an overwhelming 71-22 margin. Obama's margin was only 57-36 three weeks ago, so when combined with the stable 49-48 Obama-McCain margin with the white vote Obama has a larger overall lead.

Also a full 60% of voters list the economy as their top concern, up from 51% three weeks ago. And among these economy-minded voters, Obama has a very strong 60-34 lead over McCain. Obviously, Obama's clear & timely economic message is continuing to win over voters.

And finally, Sarah Palin's many woes continue to drag McCain down. She now has a 36-49 favorable-unfavorable rating, and this is just as the "Troopergate" report from Alaska is hitting the front pages in the mainstream media. It seems that the more familiar voters become with Palin, the less they like her.

So what can we do? Let's help push Obama over the top in the Rocky Mountain state! Oh yes, and C4O All-Star Mark Udall is ahead 49-39 in the Senate race here, so let's help him win as well! :-)

The Ground Game in Colorado

Here's a good update from TalkLeft on what's happening in The Centennial State. Basically, the new voter registration figures provide some great news for us. Also, the ballot initiatives up for a vote over there may provide an extra boost to Democrats. :-)

More States of the Race: We Can Win The Wild West

Yum! TPM has just fed us two new polls from the West:

Suffolk University- Nevada:
Obama 46%
McCain 46%

Public Policy Polling- New Mexico:
Obama 53%
McCain 42%

Wow! Combine a renewed focus on the economy with increasing strength among Latinos, and we have a more favorable map for Obama here. The more polling I see out of New Mexico, the more easily I breathe. While I don't think we should rest on our laurels quite yet, I do think Democrats are in for a good year in The Land of Enchantment. Hopefully the Obama campaign will keep up the good work here, so that we'll see a strong enough Obama win to help Democrats down ballot like Tom Udall and Martin Heinrich have an easier time winning.

And what can I say about Nevada? The race here is HOT, HOT, HOT! Because The Silver State's been hit hardest by the mortgage meltdown, people here seem quite open to Obama's message of real change to help real working people. Now if Obama just wins over a few more Indpendents while turning out the Democratic base en masse (which would help, since Dems now outnumber Reeps in the state), we can also win here.

So what can we conclude? Basically, the West will still be a key for us to win. While traditional battleground states like Ohio and Florida are still quite important this year, the "Big 3" Western Swing States of Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada provide Democrats for more options to win the White House as well as more seats for Congress. New Mexico now shows a good Democratic lean, so we now must focus on winning Colorado and Nevada to seal the deal and make Barack Obama our next President!

Btw, now's a great time to make victory happen! :-)

On Winning the West: PART 2!!

(Proudly cross-posted at CCN & Swing State Project)

Last week, I began analyzing the state of the races out West. And ever since then, I've received feedback about me not including all the competitive races out here. And to all of you fretting, I say... Don't worry!

Because we have so many opportunities to not just pick up electoral votes for Obama, but also additional House and Senate seats, I just couldn't pack them all into one diary. So today, without further adieu, I give you Part 2 of "On Winning the West"!

OK, there's no denying it. Colorado is one of the top swing states this year. Colorado is one of our best opportunities outside of New Mexico for a Western pick-up this year, but it's also a state where the Republicans are going for broke as they're doing everything they can to prevent us from turning the state blue. But because we have the facts, the issues, and the momentum on our side, we have a great opportunity to not just turn Colorado blue on the Presidential level, but also make the state's Congressional Delegation bluer as well.





Mark Udall is currently a Member of Congress representing the Boulder area, and he's the Democrat running for Senate here. Udall has a strong record of standing up for the values we believe in as well as working across the aisle to make change happen. He's been a leader on energy and environmental issues, and he's really the perfect fit for Coloradans on the issues they care about most. Despite a recent barrage of ugly attacks, Udall has the edge in this race. Still, our friends at the DSCC are taking the GOP threat seriously... And we should, too. As long as we have Udall's back, we can win here.

Another great opportunity for us in Colorado lies with Betsy Markey in the state's 4th Congressional District. This area has traditionally been more Republican-leaning, but that's quickly changing. The incumbent anti-environment, anti-choice, anti-gay, anti-immigrant, anti-working-class Marilyn Musgrave is so extremist that she couldn't even get 50% last time she ran for reelection. And already, Markey has taken the lead in the last indpendent poll done in the district. So far, it looks like the people here would rather see someone who's ready to work for them like Betsy Markey rather than face another two years with Musgrave. And with the DCCC and EMILY'S List making a move here, we know this is a real race that we can win.

Now I know we can win Oregon for Obama. It's a pretty reliably blue state, although the polls are often close here. With some hard work and a strong message, we can not only keep Oregon blue for Obama... But also send another Democrat to the Senate!





Jeff Merkley is the Democrat running for Senate here. He has a strong record as Oregon's State House Speaker of bringing all sides to the table to pass legislation that has made a difference in people's lives while still holding true to his progressive values. That's why a multitude of progressive advocates, such as Oregon's labor unions, the Sierra Club, the League of Conservation Voters, Planned Parenthood PAC, and NARAL Pro-Choice America have all endorsed Merkley. Now the Republican incumbent Gordon Smith may claim to be "bipartisan", but we know he's just another Bush-Cheney-McCain enabler. The polls here may be close, but withour help and the DSCC's help Merkley can win.

So will you join us in helping these good Democrats win? We can win the West... As long as we stand up and fight! So will you fight with us? If we want change, we need to suppport it and work for it. So come on, let's bring some positive change to the West! :-)

On Winning the West

(Proudly cross-posted at Swing State Project and MyDD)

I know you've heard this. I have, too. "The battleground has moved West." To a large extent, this is true. And while we probably will may plenty of attention to traditional swing states like Florida & Ohio this fall, we probably also will be spending much more time analyzing developments in places like Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Montana.

But you know what? The Presidential Race isn't the only interesting race out west. Let's take a look at some extra goodies that we can look forward to.

Nevada is a critical state for Democrats this fall. First off, this state is a top target for Barack Obama to make the goal of at least 270 electoral votes. But in addition, we have two important Congressional races that can earn us two much needed seats as we expand our majority.

The 3rd Congressional District is one of the hottest races out West, if not the hottest. Dina Titus is running strong in a district where Democrats now outnumber Republicans. Both the Nevada Democratic Party and the Obama campaign are working hard here, and the key for them will be turning out all the newly registered Democrats while also winning over the swing voters that decide both Presidential elections and Congressional elections here in suburban Las Vegas. The Bush-McCain GOP incumbent Jon Porter is running scared, and we can tell. Dina Titus even has new ads on the air, and with our support she'll have everything she needs to win.

The 2nd Congressional District may have been tradionally a Republican stronghold, but Jill Derby is changing that. The race is competitive, and the Bush-McCain GOP footsoldier Dean Heller is already throwing everything but the kitchen sink to maintain his edge. We have the power to hold Heller's feet to the fire, and ultimately help Derby give Heller the boot.





Although Arizona may be John McCain's home state, that isn't stopping Democrats from competing hard here. And in addition to the Presidential race, we have a great candidate in Ann Kirkpatrick who looks to replace the corrupt (and retiring) GOPer Rick Renzi. Ann Kirkpatrick has worked hard for her community, has real Arizona values, and is running to bring about real change. This is one of our best chances at picking up a seat out west, so let's take it!





We all know New Mexico is one of our top swing states that we can turn blue. But in addition to Obama's victory, we can also send another Democrat to Congress! Martin Heinrich is running strong in this Albuquerque district... In fact, so strong that he's now taken the lead in the latest independent poll! The voters now see that Republican Darren White is just another Bush-Cheney sycophant, and they're ready for real change.





OK, so I know these aren't all of the great races that we're discovering out West. However, I hope that this gives you an idea of what's really at stake. If we play our cards right, we may not only wind up with a President Obama next January, but also with more and better Democrats in Congress. But if we don't stand up for our Democrats now, we can't win.

So please, stand with us. If you live in any of these areas, help out with the campaign. And no matter where you are, support your party, your values, and your candidates. Are you ready to win? I am! :-)

The Wild, Wild West

Whoa!

Arizona
McCain 47%
Obama 41%

Colorado
Obama 46%
McCain 43%

Nevada
McCain 47%
Obama 39%

New Mexico
McCain 46%
Obama 41%

OK, so McCain's moving up in Nevada & New Mexico while Obama's moving up in Colorado & Arizona... Right? Right?

I don't know. These numbers perplex me, and they seem to go against what all the other polls are telling us. Still, Mason-Dixon has a story to tell us.

The bad news is that McCain's numbers are too high on the economy. The good news is that Obama's consolidating his strength among Latinos, and he's keeping the race close despite the difficult summer... Even in ARIZONA!! The REALLY good news is that we still have time to fix the problems before November 4.

So don't assume these numbers are exactly what the ground game looks like, but do remember that we can do A LOT to turn these states blue. :-)