Friday, September 19, 2008

The States of the Race: Whoa!

We have some new numbers coming in this morning that are sure to knock your socks off. Please sit down as I reveal the new Portland Tribune (Oregon), Strategic Vision, and Insider Advantage state polls (all others via Political Wire).

Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 40%

Strategic Vision:

New Jersey-
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 43%

Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 42%

Insider Advantage:

McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 46%

Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 41%

The bad news: OK, let's start with Strategic Vision. They're a Republican polling firm, so I'm not too surprised that they show some fairly ugly numbers in Washington and New Jersey. If other polls confirm this, we can start worrying. Otherwise, they're most likely outliers.

The good news: Now, let's move on to those Portland Tribune poll. The new Oregon poll contradicts Rasmussen's small 4 point lead for Obama, but it also goes a little beyond the other polls showing a 7-9 point advantage for Obama. So most likely, the race is somewhere between Rasmussen and Portland Tribune. This would most likely mean Oregon's now leaning Democratic (as in no longer a toss-up state), and perhaps Obama's reason to continue campaigning here is to help downballot (like Jeff Merkley for Senate).

And finally, Insider Advantage... Yowzer! Their Virginia poll shows a tiny McCain lead, which mostly falls in line with other polls of this state (a range of McCain +2 to Obama +4). However, their Colorado poll looks quite surprising. No other poll of this state has shown either Obama or McCain with a double-digit advantage, so I'm a little tempted to call this an outlier. But since Insider Advantage usually has a good track record, I don't want to just flippantly dismiss them... Let's wait to see if other polls confirm their findings.

Conclusion: Whoa! ;-)


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