Who Will Be Colorado's New Senator?

With all the recent attention on the Illinois debacle & the New York drama, I figured it would be nice for us to remember that Colorado will also soon have a Senate vacancy. So who would you like to see as Ken Salazar's successor?

Looking Southwest for 2010 & Beyond

This year has been quite transformative for The West, especially The Southwest. Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico have gone from Red to Blue. Utah and Arizona don't look quite as Red as they used to. Oh yes, and California now looks bluer than ever before.

But will this last? Will The Southwest continue to trend blue? And can Democrats continue to make gains here?

Honestly, I think so. Why? First off, demographics are shifting our way. Latinos continue to grow in population and political influence. "Creative Class" professionals continue to breathe new life into the region's urban areas. The area has changed, and the changes favor us.

And because the the demographics of The Southwest has changed, so has the politics. The old "rugged individualism" and "libertarian conservatism" that used to define the region's politics have faded away as these formerly rural states are becoming much more urban and suburban. After all, why would young parents in Henderson, NV, worry about whether or not they can own assault rifles when they have to make plans for their kids' college education, keep their kids safe from dangerous air and water pollution, and be able to afford a home and food and health care? Why would a couple of biotech researchers in Aurora, CO, feel threatened by public park land in the state when they're worried about keeping their jobs?

See where I'm going? The West has changed. I know. I've witnessed how my native Orange County, CA, has changed from "John Birch Society" embarrassment to dynamic urban environment. I've seen firsthand how Las Vegas has transformed from small casino town to world-class destination. I've been amazed by how the entire region has changed, and how we all saw this on full display as Democrats won across the board here.

So what should we do next? Let's first talk about Nevada. Barack Obama won here by 12% (vs. a 2% Bush win in 2004), Democrat Dina Titus defeated GOP incumbent Jon Porter for Congress in NV-03, and Democrats now control both houses of the state legislature. So what next? We keep Majority Leader Harry Reid in the Senate and put a good Democrat in the Governor's seat to replace the disgraced GOP incumbent Jim Gibbons, as both are quite doable. I'd now peg the Senate race as "Leans Democratic" and the Governor's race as "Toss-up". Oh yes, and we'd be wise to take advantage of Obama's possible 2012 coattails here by finding a legitimate challenger to GOP Senator John Ensign.

Colorado was also good to us this year, as Obama won by 9% (vs. a 5% Bush win in 2004), Tom Udall won a formerly GOP Senate seat, and Betsy Markey unseated GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave in CO-04. So what can we do now? I'd peg incumbent Senator Ken Salazar's 2010 race as "Likely Democratic" now, but we should keep a close watch to make sure we win again. And of course, we'll need to make sure Obama wins again in 2012.

But what about California? Obama won here by a whopping 24% (vs. a 10% Kerry win in 2004) and Democrats already have both Senate seats & 33 of 53 House seats. What more can we have? How about the Governor's seat, which I already consider "Leans Democratic" as the GOP has no strong candidate to succeed Arnold Schwarzenegger? And how about winning the "Toss-up" House races in CA-03, CA-04, and CA-44 in 2010, where we came so close this year? Same goes for the "Leans Republican" races in CA-46 and CA-50?

And what about Arizona? McCain won his home state by 9% (vs. an 11% Bush win in 2004), but Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick still managed to win a formerly GOP seat in AZ-01. So is there still potential here? I think so. Without the McCain home state edge, Obama can win here in 2012. And better yet, we can beat McCain in 2010, as well as fellow GOP Senator Jon Kyl in 2012, with the right candidates. Same goes with the 2010 Governor's race, which can be a "Toss-up" if we can have a quality candidate run against newly minted GOP Governor Jan Brewer.

So where do we go from here out West? We win! Ready to win?

States of the Race: Good News Out West!

Hot off the presses! Rasmussen has two new polls in two crucial Western swing states. Here, let's take a look!

Nevada:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 45%

Colorado:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 45%

The bad news: None here!

The good news: Obama is solidifying his leads out West! The closer to the election we get, the better Democrats are poised to win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico! At this point, both Colorado & New Mexico show strong leans toward Obama while Nevada is starting to show an Obama lean as well. With Obama winning all the Kerry states, Iowa, and these three Western Swing States, Obama has secured 278 electoral votes and a win on election day!

Conclusion: PLEASE, PLEASE DON'T STOP WORKING FOR VICTORY! Please keep donating, keep volunteering, keep going until we win! I post these poll numbers not to lull us into complacency, but to encourage us to work harder for victory. We're almost there now, so let's make it happen! :-)

Colorado? Yes, We WILL!

Wow! Public Policy Polling has a new Colorado poll out, and my is it pretty! Here, let's take a look.

Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 42%

Oh my, so Obama now has a healthy 10% lead in Colorado! And why is this? First, observe Latinos choosing Obama over McCain by an overwhelming 71-22 margin. Obama's margin was only 57-36 three weeks ago, so when combined with the stable 49-48 Obama-McCain margin with the white vote Obama has a larger overall lead.

Also a full 60% of voters list the economy as their top concern, up from 51% three weeks ago. And among these economy-minded voters, Obama has a very strong 60-34 lead over McCain. Obviously, Obama's clear & timely economic message is continuing to win over voters.

And finally, Sarah Palin's many woes continue to drag McCain down. She now has a 36-49 favorable-unfavorable rating, and this is just as the "Troopergate" report from Alaska is hitting the front pages in the mainstream media. It seems that the more familiar voters become with Palin, the less they like her.

So what can we do? Let's help push Obama over the top in the Rocky Mountain state! Oh yes, and C4O All-Star Mark Udall is ahead 49-39 in the Senate race here, so let's help him win as well! :-)

Tonight's States of the Race

Rasmussen has some new state numbers for our viewing pleasure, so let's take a look at them!

Ohio:
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 47%

Virginia:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Missouri:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 47%

Colorado:
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 45%

Florida:
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 45%

The bad news: Ohio??!! McCain's still slightly ahead in Ohio? Rasmussen says so, but they contradict just about all other pollsters that have recently shown Obama's numbers rising in The Buckeye State. So is Ras right and everyone else wrong? I don't know, so let's wait and see.

The good news: At this point, Obama's fortunes don't lie with Ohio alone! After all, Ras is yet another pollster showing Obama up by a healthy margin in Florida! If Obama can secure Florida, then it's truly game over... We win! Also, Obama has rebuilt a lead in Colorado while also taking the lead in Missouri. If Obama wins all these states and Virginia, then we're in for a sea of BLUE on November 4!

Conclusion: Now's a good time to give Obama an extra lift up if you're in Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Missouri, or Ohio! And no matter where you are, now is the perfect time to give some $$$ to local parties and Congressional candidates in these states. Let's make sure we maximize on a Big Blue Wave! :-)

Sunday's States of the Race

Brought to you today by Political Wire!

Denver Post-Mason Dixon of Colorado:
Obama (D) 44%
McCain (R) 44%

Columbus Dispatch of Ohio:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 42%

Minneapolis Star-Tribune of Minnesota:
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 37%

The bad news: Colorado. We can't sugar-coat this too much. This is the third consecutive poll showing Colorado at a tie or near-tie. So obviously, we have more work to do in The Centennial State. But on the other hand Mason-Dixon has consistently shown better numbers for McCain in the Western States than other pollsters, so we may have to wait & see before we decide just how close the race in Colorado is.

The good news: Ohio & Minnesota... Whoa!! Less than a month ago, McCain was growing his lead in Ohio while Obama's lead in Minnesota was shrinking to a near-tie. But now, Obama has strong leads in both states! With the economy becoming Issue #1 in so many of these Midwestern States, voters looking for real help are turning to Barack Obama.

Conclusion: Obama now looks to hold all the Kerry 2004/Gore 2000 states, meaning all the Blue States from both years + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire. That makes 264 electoral votes (EVs). All we need now are 6 more EVs.

And now, I see 5 plausible paths for Obama to take to get to 270+ EVs:

1. Gore-Kerry Blue States + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + Florida (291 EVs)

2. Gore-Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + Colorado + Nevada (278 EVs)

3. Gore-Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + Ohio (284 EVs)

4. Gore-Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + Virginia (277 EVs)

5. Gore-Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + North Carolina (279 EVs)

At this point, Obama has many roads to 270 while McCain's one path continues to narrow... This is right where we want to be just one month before the election! :-)

Obama in Colorado

In case you missed it yesterday...





And here are some real life volunteers who are fired up & ready to go!



:-)

CNN Sez: The States of the Race Are Shifting

Here are the new CNN-Opinion Research state polls:

Montana-
McCain 54%
Obama 43%

West Virginia-
McCain 50%
Obama 46%

Colorado-
Obama 51%
McCain 47%

Michigan-
Obama 51%
McCain 46%

Pennsylvania-
Obama 53%
McCain 44%

Wow! No wonder why McCain's afraid to debate. Other than Montana, there simply isn't good news for him. West Virginia is now in play, while Obama is starting to solidify his leads in Colorado, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. With each passing day of Obama delivering a clear message of change and McCain delivering gaffe after scandal after another gaffe, the state of the race isn't looking hot for the GOP. I'm looking forward to seeing Obama cutting through the McCrap and telling some truth on the economic crisis later this week, as the voters clearly are looking for real leadership.

Making Change Happen in Colorado

Here's what a real Colorado voter has to say about Barack Obama.

The Ground Game in Colorado

Here's a good update from TalkLeft on what's happening in The Centennial State. Basically, the new voter registration figures provide some great news for us. Also, the ballot initiatives up for a vote over there may provide an extra boost to Democrats. :-)

The States of the Race: Whoa!

We have some new numbers coming in this morning that are sure to knock your socks off. Please sit down as I reveal the new Portland Tribune (Oregon), Strategic Vision, and Insider Advantage state polls (all others via Political Wire).

Oregon-
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 40%

Strategic Vision:

New Jersey-
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 43%

Washington-
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 42%

Insider Advantage:

Virginia-
McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 46%

Colorado-
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 41%

The bad news: OK, let's start with Strategic Vision. They're a Republican polling firm, so I'm not too surprised that they show some fairly ugly numbers in Washington and New Jersey. If other polls confirm this, we can start worrying. Otherwise, they're most likely outliers.

The good news: Now, let's move on to those Portland Tribune poll. The new Oregon poll contradicts Rasmussen's small 4 point lead for Obama, but it also goes a little beyond the other polls showing a 7-9 point advantage for Obama. So most likely, the race is somewhere between Rasmussen and Portland Tribune. This would most likely mean Oregon's now leaning Democratic (as in no longer a toss-up state), and perhaps Obama's reason to continue campaigning here is to help downballot (like Jeff Merkley for Senate).

And finally, Insider Advantage... Yowzer! Their Virginia poll shows a tiny McCain lead, which mostly falls in line with other polls of this state (a range of McCain +2 to Obama +4). However, their Colorado poll looks quite surprising. No other poll of this state has shown either Obama or McCain with a double-digit advantage, so I'm a little tempted to call this an outlier. But since Insider Advantage usually has a good track record, I don't want to just flippantly dismiss them... Let's wait to see if other polls confirm their findings.

Conclusion: Whoa! ;-)

On Winning the West: PART 2!!

(Proudly cross-posted at CCN & Swing State Project)

Last week, I began analyzing the state of the races out West. And ever since then, I've received feedback about me not including all the competitive races out here. And to all of you fretting, I say... Don't worry!

Because we have so many opportunities to not just pick up electoral votes for Obama, but also additional House and Senate seats, I just couldn't pack them all into one diary. So today, without further adieu, I give you Part 2 of "On Winning the West"!

OK, there's no denying it. Colorado is one of the top swing states this year. Colorado is one of our best opportunities outside of New Mexico for a Western pick-up this year, but it's also a state where the Republicans are going for broke as they're doing everything they can to prevent us from turning the state blue. But because we have the facts, the issues, and the momentum on our side, we have a great opportunity to not just turn Colorado blue on the Presidential level, but also make the state's Congressional Delegation bluer as well.





Mark Udall is currently a Member of Congress representing the Boulder area, and he's the Democrat running for Senate here. Udall has a strong record of standing up for the values we believe in as well as working across the aisle to make change happen. He's been a leader on energy and environmental issues, and he's really the perfect fit for Coloradans on the issues they care about most. Despite a recent barrage of ugly attacks, Udall has the edge in this race. Still, our friends at the DSCC are taking the GOP threat seriously... And we should, too. As long as we have Udall's back, we can win here.

Another great opportunity for us in Colorado lies with Betsy Markey in the state's 4th Congressional District. This area has traditionally been more Republican-leaning, but that's quickly changing. The incumbent anti-environment, anti-choice, anti-gay, anti-immigrant, anti-working-class Marilyn Musgrave is so extremist that she couldn't even get 50% last time she ran for reelection. And already, Markey has taken the lead in the last indpendent poll done in the district. So far, it looks like the people here would rather see someone who's ready to work for them like Betsy Markey rather than face another two years with Musgrave. And with the DCCC and EMILY'S List making a move here, we know this is a real race that we can win.

Now I know we can win Oregon for Obama. It's a pretty reliably blue state, although the polls are often close here. With some hard work and a strong message, we can not only keep Oregon blue for Obama... But also send another Democrat to the Senate!





Jeff Merkley is the Democrat running for Senate here. He has a strong record as Oregon's State House Speaker of bringing all sides to the table to pass legislation that has made a difference in people's lives while still holding true to his progressive values. That's why a multitude of progressive advocates, such as Oregon's labor unions, the Sierra Club, the League of Conservation Voters, Planned Parenthood PAC, and NARAL Pro-Choice America have all endorsed Merkley. Now the Republican incumbent Gordon Smith may claim to be "bipartisan", but we know he's just another Bush-Cheney-McCain enabler. The polls here may be close, but withour help and the DSCC's help Merkley can win.

So will you join us in helping these good Democrats win? We can win the West... As long as we stand up and fight! So will you fight with us? If we want change, we need to suppport it and work for it. So come on, let's bring some positive change to the West! :-)

Barack Obama on the Economy in Golden, CO

Here's one of my favorite parts:

Make no mistake: my opponent is running for four more years of policies that will throw the economy further out of balance. His outrage at Wall Street would be more convincing if he wasn’t offering them more tax cuts. His call for fiscal responsibility would be believable if he wasn’t for more tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, and more of a trillion dollar war in Iraq paid for with deficit spending and borrowing from foreign creditors like China. His newfound support for regulation bears no resemblance to his scornful attitude towards oversight and enforcement. John McCain cannot be trusted to reestablish proper oversight of our financial markets for one simple reason: he has shown time and again that he does not believe in it.

Read the full transcript & watch the video from Colorado here.

New Obama Ad in Colorado

I like the sound of this.

Barack Obama: I'm Barack Obama, candidate for president, and I approved this message.
Ray Schoenke: This is Ray Schoenke. I played football with the Washington Redskins. Now I'm president of the American Hunters and Shooters Association. It's important to me that our next President protects our Second Amendment rights to own guns and defend ourselves.

Barack Obama and John McCain will both make sure we can keep our guns.

But what about keeping our jobs?

Barack's got a real plan that invests in creating jobs here at home and cuts taxes a thousand bucks for working families.

John McCain?

I saw a lot of cheap shots in my day...

But McCain's false attacks on Obama are just a fake to hide the ball. His plan sells out American workers.

McCain will keep giving tax breaks to companies that ship our jobs overseas.

And he'll look the other way while China breaks our trade deals.

It's the same old Bush playbook.

Look, when the coach loses eight years in a row, you don't bring him back for a ninth season!

We just can't afford more of the same.

Apparently, it's also up in Michigan, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland, Virginia and Ohio. Hopefully, we'll keep hearing more smart plays like this in the future. :-)

Obama in Colorado

Just what we needed...

States of the Race: The "Oh!" in Ohio

Can Ohio once again be the final determinant in who becomes our next President? The new round of state polls suggest so. Here, take a look.

Quinnpiac University:

Florida-
McCain 50%
Obama 43%

Pennsylvania-
Obama 48%
McCain 45%

Ohio-
Obama 49%
McCain 44%

Public Policy Polling:

Colorado-
Obama 47%
McCain 46%

Well, Colorado also still looks to be in a position to swing the election Obama's way. At this point, Obama has five main roads to victory:

1. Win all the Kerry states + the 3 Western Swing States of Colorado + New Mexico + Nevada.

2. Win all the Kerry states + Iowa + at least 2 of the 3 Western Swing States of Colorado + New Mexico + Nevada.

3. Win all the Kerry states + Iowa + Virginia + at least one of the Western Swing States of Colorado + New Mexico + Nevada.

4. Win all the Kerry states + Florida.

5. Win all the Kerry states + Ohio.

So do you see how Ohio can be a complete game-changer? If McCain loses Ohio, he loses the White House. It's really that plain & simple. And if Florida & Virginia go to McCain on 11/04, we'll all be focusing once again on Ohio. As long as we win Ohio & win the Western battlegrounds, we win the White House. :-)

Rasmussen Sez: The States of the Race Look Good!

Phew! After the cacophony of national tracking polls, we're now starting to get a better look off what the ground game looks like. We now have new state polls from Rasmussen (via TPM), and we overall have good news. While Ohio looks difficult, Virginia & Pennsylvania haven't moved while Obama's trending up in Florida & Colorado.

So without further adieu...

Ohio-

McCain 51%
Obama 44%

Virginia-

McCain 49%
Obama 47%

Florida-

Obama 48%
McCain 48%

Pennsylvania-

Obama 47%
McCain 45%

Colorado-

Obama 49%
McCain 46%

If these kinds of numbers hold up, we can breathe a sigh of relief. I'm starting to get the feeling that as Florida and/or Colorado goes, so does the White House. :-)

UPDATE: For everyone freaking out over the daily tracking polls, Rasmussen just released today's new numbers:

Obama 48%
McCain 48%

Hmmm... It looks to me like the "McSurge" has just ended. ;-)

Today's Polls

Here are some interesting poll numbers via 538.com:

From Strategic Vision (R)-

Florida: McCain +7

From CNN-

Colorado: McCain +1
Nevada: Obama +5
Pennsylvania: Obama +5
New Mexico: Obama +13

The Strategic Vision numbers in Florida are bizarre. But since they're Republican pollsters, their numbers skew somewhat to the right of all other pollsters. We probably don't have to worry too much about them.

But regarding CNN, their numbers are quite fascinating. Colorado looks VERY tight, but the numbers in Nevada, New Mexico, & Pennsylania are quite encouraging. We stand a good chance of winning all these states in the fall, so we should continue working hard here.

Barack Obama really looks to be enjoying a rise in the state polls, and if this continues we can really look forward to a solid win in November. :-)

Claire McCaskill at the Democratic Convention

Here was another great speech from last night that I hope everyone gets to see.

The Wild, Wild West

Whoa!

Arizona
McCain 47%
Obama 41%

Colorado
Obama 46%
McCain 43%

Nevada
McCain 47%
Obama 39%

New Mexico
McCain 46%
Obama 41%

OK, so McCain's moving up in Nevada & New Mexico while Obama's moving up in Colorado & Arizona... Right? Right?

I don't know. These numbers perplex me, and they seem to go against what all the other polls are telling us. Still, Mason-Dixon has a story to tell us.

The bad news is that McCain's numbers are too high on the economy. The good news is that Obama's consolidating his strength among Latinos, and he's keeping the race close despite the difficult summer... Even in ARIZONA!! The REALLY good news is that we still have time to fix the problems before November 4.

So don't assume these numbers are exactly what the ground game looks like, but do remember that we can do A LOT to turn these states blue. :-)