The Rest of the West: Part 1

About 2 weeks ago, we talked about the rising Democratic tide in The Southwest. Now, I want for us to discuss what's happening in The Northwest. Believe it or not, we have plenty of opportunities up north as well.

Want to come along with me as we look at where we can win in 2010 and beyond?

Let's start in Wyoming. While John McCain beat Barack Obama by 32%, it was an improvement over Bush's 40% margin of victory in 2004. And believe it or not, Wyoming voters twice elected Democrat Dave Freudenthal as Governor while Democrat Gary Trauner twice lost the At-Large House seat by surprisingly narrow margins. We have an opportunity in 2010 to win both races, as Freudenthal is termed out and newly elected GOP Rep. Cynthia Lummis doesn't seem much more popular than outgoing GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin. I see both races as "Leans Republican" now, but that can change if we find good candidates.

Unlike Wyoming, Montana is rapidly trending Democratic. Bush won the state by 20% in 2004, but McCain could only muster a 3% win and Obama may be the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992 to win here in 2012. And better yet, Montana now has 2 Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, and a split legislature. But for some reason, incumbent GOP Rep. Dennis Rehberg is still in office. If we find a strong Democrat to challenge Rehberg in 2010, I think we can make this "Likely Republican" seat more competitive.

Now Idaho may not be trending Democratic as quickly as Montana, but the state is moving our way. Bush's 39% win in 2004 was reduced to a 25% McCain win this year. And better yet, Democrat Walt Minnick scored a stunning upset win over incumbent GOP Rep. Bill Sali in ID-01. But even though Minnick won this year, we must remember that this House seat will be the top GOP target in 2010. This race looks like a "Toss-up" now, and we'll need to work hard to hold ID-01 while continuing to make electoral gains in Idaho.

While all the other Northwest states previously mentioned still tilt toward the GOP, Washington state is quite the different game. Barack Obama won here by 17%, a great improvement over Kerry's narrower 7% win in 2004. Meanwhile, Democratic Governor Chris Gregoire won reelection this year while Democratic majorities in both house of the legislature, both Democratic Senators, and all 6 Democratic House Reps. look pretty safe. However, we have a chance to pick up another House seat in the eastern suburban Seattle WA-08 district. Incumbent GOP Rep. Dave Reichert only narrowly won reelection in 2006 & 2008 in a district that both Kerry & Obama won. If we perhaps find a candidate with legislative experience to challenge Reichert in 2010, we can finally win this "Toss-up" race.

As you can see, The Northwest is undergoing many of the same changes being seen Southwest. Wyoming and Idaho may still look strongly Republican, but Montana has rapidly become a swing state as Oregon and Washington have gone from simply leaning Democratic to strongly Democratic. As the population grows, diversifies, and changes from rural to suburban & urban, Democrats are rising to victory.

As long as demographics change and voters continue to care less about "the culture wars" and more about issues like energy, environmental preservation, and economic development, Democrats will win. That's why our party must continue to invest in winning The West. So are you ready to win?

MONTANA?! YES. WE. CAN!

For a few weeks during the summer, it looked like Montana was a swing state. But shortly after the Republican Convention, it seemed like "Palinpalooza" sealed the deal for McCain here. Well, that's obviously not the case any more!!

Obama (D) 44%
McCain (R) 40%
Paul (I) 4%
Nader (I) 1%
Barr (L) 1%

With the economy in peril, Montanans seem to be giving Obama another look. Also, Ron Paul stands a serious threat to eat into McCain's numbers enough to throw the state's 3 electoral votes our way.

Simply put, this is nothing short of breathtaking! Who'd have thought that a Democrat could win MONTANA this year??!! This is all the more reason for us to work our behinds off to MAKE. THIS. VICTORY. BIG!!!! :-)

Tonight's Poll Report

Many thanks to TPM for providing us with these lovely new numbers!

Rasmussen:

Kentucky-
McCain (R) 52%
Obama (D) 42%

Montana-
McCain (R) 52%
Obama (D) 44%

Nebraska-
McCain (R) 56%
Obama (D) 37%

New Mexico-
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 44%

Economist-YouGov National:
Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 42%

The bad news: OK, so Obama isn't winning every state. Boo-hoo. ;-)

The good news: For all the talk of Montana swinging sharply to McCain, the newest poll numbers aren't quite confirming that. Sure, he's up... But not by as much as Republicans usually are here. Meanwhile, New Mexico is DEFINITELY showing a Democratic lean! Remember that the last Rasmussen poll showed McCain +2 here, so Ras is finally falling in line with all the other polls in showing Obama ahead nicely in The Land of Enchantment. Oh yes, and Economist-YouGov also seems to be falling in line with most other polls in showing Obama taking the lead nationally.

Conclusion: If this snapshot proves to be true, then Obama's looking good. If he forces McCain to spend money in places like Montana while Obama runs away with previously "purple states" like New Mexico, then Democrats are in great shape. All in all, I just wanted to share some good news with you before the debate. :-)

CNN Sez: The States of the Race Are Shifting

Here are the new CNN-Opinion Research state polls:

Montana-
McCain 54%
Obama 43%

West Virginia-
McCain 50%
Obama 46%

Colorado-
Obama 51%
McCain 47%

Michigan-
Obama 51%
McCain 46%

Pennsylvania-
Obama 53%
McCain 44%

Wow! No wonder why McCain's afraid to debate. Other than Montana, there simply isn't good news for him. West Virginia is now in play, while Obama is starting to solidify his leads in Colorado, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. With each passing day of Obama delivering a clear message of change and McCain delivering gaffe after scandal after another gaffe, the state of the race isn't looking hot for the GOP. I'm looking forward to seeing Obama cutting through the McCrap and telling some truth on the economic crisis later this week, as the voters clearly are looking for real leadership.

How the West Can Be Won

In case you missed it, check out this gem in today's LA Times. Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO) talks about his own experience getting elected in Colorado, and explains how Democrats win in the interior West (meaning the land between the Great Plains & the Pacific Coast states). It's a fascinating read.

Even though I'm one of those "Left Coast Californication Hippie Freaks", I understand that Democrats like Ken Salazar & Jon Tester don't campaign in the same way that Barbara Boxer & Patty Murray do. While environmental & natural resource issues and are also HUGE inland, one has to pursue this & other issues in a different way. But when Democrats get the "Western Mentality", Democrats win there just like they win here in The Golden State.

So anyways, take a look here & tell me what you think about winning The West.