Monday, November 3, 2008

Last Public Policy Polling

PPP sees Pennsylvania this way:

Obama 53
McCain 45

PPP comments:
Obama has a commanding 56-38 lead with independent voters in the state. As he is in many swing states, Obama is actually carrying more Republican voters (16%) than John McCain is Democratic voters (15%), perhaps surprising in a state where Hillary Clinton won the primary in a walk.
PPP finds Ohio as pretty tight but still tilting towards Obama:

Obama 50
McCain 48

PPP observes that while the race has tightened, it doesn't represent a collapse in Obama's support, which has remained steady. Comments PPP:
(Obama's) banked a huge lead with early voters, who made up about 30% of the sample. He's up 65-34 with those folks. McCain's tightening the race to two points is predicated on his winning election day voters 54-44.
North Carolina also is incredibly tights:

Obama 50
McCain 49

PPP comments:
PPP projects that he racked up a lead of a little over 250,000 voters during early voting. He led 55-45 among those who said they had already voted in our poll, and a little over 2.5 million North Carolinians have already cast their ballots.

But among those planning to vote on election day John McCain leads 56-42. It is always better to have actual votes than hypothetical votes so there's no doubt Obama has the edge right now- the question is just whether enough of those McCain supporters really turn out to make up the gap.
Who would have imagined that Montana would be a tossup at the end of the day?

Obama 48
McCain 47
Paul 4

The story is the same in Montana as anywhere else:
Like in many states, the contest in Montana is going to come down to election day turnout. Among those who say they have already cast their ballots in the state, Barack Obama has built up a 61-35 lead. Among those planning to vote on Tuesday John McCain has a 53-40 advantage.
Florida is also close, close, close, but it trends the way all the other polls have said it is trending:

Obama 50
McCain 48

Once again, the same story:
Over half of those who plan to vote in Florida this fall already have, and among those voters Barack Obama has built up a a 56-43 lead. That leaves John McCain playing catch up if he hopes to take the state on election day- he has a 54-42 lead among those folks planning to vote Tuesday, but the big question is whether they will really turn out.


Post a Comment