Sunday, November 2, 2008

Pew's final poll

The Pew Research Center has released its final poll. Its results are these:

Obama 49
McCain 42
Other 2
Undecided 7

It estimates that more of the undecided voters will split for McCain than Obama; based on this assumption, it predicts the following will be the spread on election day:

Obama 52
McCain 46
Other 2

The sample size was 2,587 likely voters, and Pew conducted the field work between October 29 and November 1.

Pew makes the following observations:
Obama holds a wide lead over John McCain among those who say they have already voted (32% of all likely voters) or say they plan to vote before Election Day (7%). However, it is not quite as large as it was a week ago. More significant, the race is about even among voters who plan to vote on Election Day: 46% support McCain while 45% favor Obama.
These are the current breakdowns:

Among those who already voted:
Obama 54
McCain 36

Among those who will vote after the poll's conclusion but before election day:
Obama 64
McCain 26

Vote on Election Day:
Obama 46
McCain 45


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