Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Florida, Florida, Florida!!!

It was all about The Sunshine State in 2000... And PPP hints that it may be all about this state again in 2008.

Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 47%

Still, there's a difference this year. Unlike Gore & Kerry in the past, Obama does not need Florida to win. Still, this state is critical for us to win. Why?

I have a hunch that what happens in Florida may determine how big of a win Democrats have on November 4. If Obama narrowly loses Florida & Democrats stay even (probably trading in FL-16 for FL-24) or pick up just one net House seat, I think we'll probably be in for a comfortable but still fairly close 3-6%, ~300 EV Obama win along with a moderate 5-7 Senate seat pickup & 10-20 House seat pickup. Not bad, and I certainly won't cry. But still, we may later grumble about missed opportunities.

But if Obama wins Florida & Democrats pick up a net 2-4 House seats here, expect a landslide. Because Florida's run consistently slightly behind the national average, an Obama win here on November 4 will likely mean a larger 6-12% popular vote & 330+ EV national Obama landslide win AND a hearty 7-10 Senate seat pickup & 20-30 House seat pickup. Now do you see what I mean?

Florida makes the difference between a narrower Democratic victory & a wider Democratic victory. While I'm satisfied with either scenario, I obviously want us to work as hard as possible to win as BIG as possible. Now's our chance, so let's take it! :-D


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