Florida, Florida, Florida!!!

It was all about The Sunshine State in 2000... And PPP hints that it may be all about this state again in 2008.

Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 47%

Still, there's a difference this year. Unlike Gore & Kerry in the past, Obama does not need Florida to win. Still, this state is critical for us to win. Why?

I have a hunch that what happens in Florida may determine how big of a win Democrats have on November 4. If Obama narrowly loses Florida & Democrats stay even (probably trading in FL-16 for FL-24) or pick up just one net House seat, I think we'll probably be in for a comfortable but still fairly close 3-6%, ~300 EV Obama win along with a moderate 5-7 Senate seat pickup & 10-20 House seat pickup. Not bad, and I certainly won't cry. But still, we may later grumble about missed opportunities.

But if Obama wins Florida & Democrats pick up a net 2-4 House seats here, expect a landslide. Because Florida's run consistently slightly behind the national average, an Obama win here on November 4 will likely mean a larger 6-12% popular vote & 330+ EV national Obama landslide win AND a hearty 7-10 Senate seat pickup & 20-30 House seat pickup. Now do you see what I mean?

Florida makes the difference between a narrower Democratic victory & a wider Democratic victory. While I'm satisfied with either scenario, I obviously want us to work as hard as possible to win as BIG as possible. Now's our chance, so let's take it! :-D