Al Franken Wins?

It looks like Minnesota has a new Senator... FINALLY! Oh wait, I guess it isn't over yet. Hopefully, this won't be tied up in the courts for too much longer.

MN-Sen: Franken by 224?

It may happen. The Minneapolis Star-Tribune now projects that Al Franken will win the recount by that many votes. Crazy, huh?

Well, it'll be nice to see Paul Wellstone's seat filled by another solid Minnesota prairie progressive. Let's hope it happens. :-)

Afternoon States of the Race

Brought to you by Rasmussen!

Alaska:
McCain (R) 57%
Obama (D) 41%

New Mexico:
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Minnesota:
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

The bad news: I guess Alaska's not flipping blue any time soon.

The good news: We don't need Alaska to win! However, we DO need Minnesota & New Mexico. And so far, Obama's safely ahead in BOTH states. As long as Obama wins these & the other states where he's leading outside the margin of error, he wins next week.

Conclusion: Keep up the good work! We're almost there! ;-)

Tonight's States of the Race

Where should we begin? How about Florida?

St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 42%

And how 'bout those new Rasmussen polls?

Louisiana:
McCain (R) 57%
Obama (D) 41%

Georgia:
McCain (R) 51%
Obama (D) 46%

Washington:
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 43%

Minnesota:
Obama (D) 56%
McCain (R) 41%

The bad news: I guess Louisiana is out of reach.

The good news: Fortunately, we don't need Louisiana to win. However, we are winning all the must-win Kerry states like Washington & Minnesota! Oh yes, and how about Georgia??!! Wow... Georgia!!!!

Conclusion: I hate sounding like a broken record, but if this holds up in the next 12 days we'll be in for a good November 4. So you know what to do now. Make us win & make this win BIG! :-D

Allstate-National Journal Does the Rust Belt

And the results? Pretty damn good for Democrats!

Minnesota:
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 40%

Pennsylvania:
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 41%

Wisconsin:
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 40%

The bad news: None here!

The good news: All 3 "Barely Blue States" from 2004 look awfully "Solid Blue" now! This is obviously good news for Obama & for us. No matter what crap McCrazy tries to throw at the wall in these states, it doesn't seem like any of it is working. Obama no longer looks to have any "blue-collar" or "white working class" problems anywhere in The Rust Belt. And now with the economy as Issue #1, this only helps Democrats here.

Conclusion: Still, let's NOT get complacent. Let's get working to make our victory BIG! :-D

Sunday's States of the Race

Brought to you today by Political Wire!

Denver Post-Mason Dixon of Colorado:
Obama (D) 44%
McCain (R) 44%

Columbus Dispatch of Ohio:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 42%

Minneapolis Star-Tribune of Minnesota:
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 37%

The bad news: Colorado. We can't sugar-coat this too much. This is the third consecutive poll showing Colorado at a tie or near-tie. So obviously, we have more work to do in The Centennial State. But on the other hand Mason-Dixon has consistently shown better numbers for McCain in the Western States than other pollsters, so we may have to wait & see before we decide just how close the race in Colorado is.

The good news: Ohio & Minnesota... Whoa!! Less than a month ago, McCain was growing his lead in Ohio while Obama's lead in Minnesota was shrinking to a near-tie. But now, Obama has strong leads in both states! With the economy becoming Issue #1 in so many of these Midwestern States, voters looking for real help are turning to Barack Obama.

Conclusion: Obama now looks to hold all the Kerry 2004/Gore 2000 states, meaning all the Blue States from both years + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire. That makes 264 electoral votes (EVs). All we need now are 6 more EVs.

And now, I see 5 plausible paths for Obama to take to get to 270+ EVs:

1. Gore-Kerry Blue States + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + Florida (291 EVs)

2. Gore-Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + Colorado + Nevada (278 EVs)

3. Gore-Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + Ohio (284 EVs)

4. Gore-Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + Virginia (277 EVs)

5. Gore-Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + North Carolina (279 EVs)

At this point, Obama has many roads to 270 while McCain's one path continues to narrow... This is right where we want to be just one month before the election! :-)

I Never Thought I'd Say This...

But I think I agree with Josh Marshall at TPM...

You'll notice that Rudy Giuliani apparently ran too long and they had to drop the Palin mini-movie that was supposed to introduce her speech. Normally people get fired for goofs like that. They didn't want Rudy's blood and iron speech the day after Gustav so they bumped it until tonight. Big mistake. He positively dripped with a kind of curdled anger, the origin of which is difficult to grasp. But he actually seemed to get angrier and angrier as the speech progressed -- off chopping his hands around, baring his teeth. I know the people in the hall loved it. But I think a lot of people will see it as whacked. Rancid. Curdled. Palin's speech ended up being much more partisan than I expected. But that was added to by the fact that she had to start her speech while the auditorium was still awash in the teeth-gnashing froth ginned up by Rudy's speech. I've seen political events that I totally got and others that I thought I got but was totally wrong about. So who knows? But take this as a sign that the McCain campaign has abandoned an effort to compete for swing voters and go back to the base energizing strategy that worked for President Bush in 2004. The numbers make that look like a tough proposition. But I think a few months from now, everyone will agree this was a mistake.

Seriously, does the GOP really think that turning out the 20-25% "base" that still want to believe that George W. Bush isn't EPIC FAIL will win them this election? I doubt it just as much as Josh Marshall does. Who thinks that the 75-80% of us who want real change won't turn out on November 4?

McBush is making a HUGE gamble in reverting to the old Rovian "turn out the base & screw everyone else" strategy... And we'll just have to see how it backfires. ;-)

Tonight's Poll Report: Battleground Midwest

Courtesy of Political Wire, here are some new polls in three EXTREMELY IMPORTANT Midwest states:

Iowa-
Obama 55%
McCain 40%

Minnesota-
Obama 53%
McCain 41%

Ohio-
Obama 47%
McCain 45%

At this point, I'd dare to say Minnesota & Iowa are no longer "Toss-Up" states, but now "Lean Obama" states. Obama's been consistently ahead in both states, and while I can't yet say we have a lock on these states, I do think the door's closing fast on McCain. And as for Ohio, it's a relief to see Obama retake the lead here. The GOP's economic policies have caused the people here to suffer, so I don't know how McCain's been able to even keep it close here.

So overall, more good news... And more reason for us to keep working our tushies off 'til we win on November 4! :-)