Sunday, October 5, 2008

Sunday's States of the Race

Brought to you today by Political Wire!

Denver Post-Mason Dixon of Colorado:
Obama (D) 44%
McCain (R) 44%

Columbus Dispatch of Ohio:
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 42%

Minneapolis Star-Tribune of Minnesota:
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 37%

The bad news: Colorado. We can't sugar-coat this too much. This is the third consecutive poll showing Colorado at a tie or near-tie. So obviously, we have more work to do in The Centennial State. But on the other hand Mason-Dixon has consistently shown better numbers for McCain in the Western States than other pollsters, so we may have to wait & see before we decide just how close the race in Colorado is.

The good news: Ohio & Minnesota... Whoa!! Less than a month ago, McCain was growing his lead in Ohio while Obama's lead in Minnesota was shrinking to a near-tie. But now, Obama has strong leads in both states! With the economy becoming Issue #1 in so many of these Midwestern States, voters looking for real help are turning to Barack Obama.

Conclusion: Obama now looks to hold all the Kerry 2004/Gore 2000 states, meaning all the Blue States from both years + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire. That makes 264 electoral votes (EVs). All we need now are 6 more EVs.

And now, I see 5 plausible paths for Obama to take to get to 270+ EVs:

1. Gore-Kerry Blue States + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + Florida (291 EVs)

2. Gore-Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + Colorado + Nevada (278 EVs)

3. Gore-Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + Ohio (284 EVs)

4. Gore-Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + Virginia (277 EVs)

5. Gore-Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + New Hampshire + North Carolina (279 EVs)

At this point, Obama has many roads to 270 while McCain's one path continues to narrow... This is right where we want to be just one month before the election! :-)


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