Tuesday, September 23, 2008

An Average Prognosticator's View of the Shape of the Electoral College on September 22

I thought it might be interesting to get a sense of the basic current view of Internet prognosticators of the Electoral College outcomes. Three Blue Dudes provides an overview to 84 sites on the web that use various methods to project trends in the Electoral College. Twenty-one of those web sites updated their projections yesterday, September 22. Of those 21 sites, 17 gave Obama the advantage in the Electoral College, two gave the advantage to McCain, and two projected a tie. Neither of the sites that saw an advantage for McCain projected he had enough electoral votes to claim the presidency: just that he had an advantage among the states they felt they could project. The average Electoral College projections for the 21 sites that updated their projections yesterday were these:

Obama 262.5
McCain 234.8

Ten of the 21 sites included estimates of toss-ups in their projections. Those 10 sites had an average 83.7 toss-up electoral votes.

Among the 11 sites that did not include a toss-up category, nine saw an outright Obama victory, and two saw a tie between the Democratic and Republican nominees. Among these 11 sites, the average of the Electoral College estimates were:

Obama 280.5
McCain 257.5


Susan said...

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes-- 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com


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