Obama with a hefty lead in Michigan?

Detroit Free Press/WDIV-TV hired Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa to conduct a poll in the Wolverine State. The poll suggests Obama has a substantial lead up there:

Obama 51
McCain 38

Selzer, of course, has had a strong Democratic lean this year, but she alone saw the Obama and McCain wins in Iowa last January. Nate at 538.com thinks she's the best pollster in the business. Nate spoke with her and observes about her analytical metholodology:

Selzer thinks that a lot of pollsters may be undercounting the youth vote, and potentially also the black vote.