Thursday, September 18, 2008

Polls of Polls

Various observers look at the totality of polling data to try and average the data that is coming in from multiple pollsters. This morning, things are looking better for our guy.

I like the most because it does not treat all samples equally and uses statistical methods to make data from different poll comparable to each other. yesterday observed that the totality of national polling data is trending toward Obama:

Obama 46.7
McCain 44.8

Real Clear Politics yesterday gave McCain an advantage of 0.7 in its average of polls. Today, that has shifted:

Obama 47.0
McCain 45.3

Finally, CNN issued its Poll of Polls this morning:

Obama 47
McCain 45

So, based on these data, we see the race has swung dramatically back to what we saw before the convention. If Obama is at 48 on November 4, I think we all will be very happy that evening as we watch the results, because even if the undecided voters that day split 70 percent for McCain, Obama will become president.


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