Thursday, September 18, 2008

Today's States of the Race

Here are the new state polls for this morning, courtesy of TPM.

Survey USA:

New Mexico-

Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 44%

Udall (D) 56%
Pearce (R) 41%


Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Obama (D) 48%
McCain (R) 46%

Christopher Newport University:


McCain (R) 48%
Obama (D) 39%

Warner (D) 54%
Gimore (R) 30%


Obama (D) 47%
McCain (R) 44%

The bad news: This Virginia poll shows McCain gaining strength, while Rasmussen shows a close race in Wisconsin and Oregon.

The good news: The Virginia poll goes against everything else that's been released this week, and since the pollster isn't well known, I'd call this an outlier. Otherwise, everything else looks great. Rasmussen state polls often lean a little more Republican than polls from other firms, so it may not be bad at all that even they show Obama up in Wisconsin and Oregon. SurveyUSA, meanwhile, confirms the Obama resurgence in New Mexico that ARG first spotted... And that also seems to help Tom Udall bounce back to a strong double-digit lead in the Senate race there. And finally while I'm cautiously considering the Selzer poll of Indiana may be an outlier (considering the other polls recently released), Ann Selzer simply is the best pollster in the Midwest so perhaps she may be onto something that all the other pollsters are missing (think Iowa Caucus).

Conclusion: Overall, this is more good news for Obama. He's holding onto the Gore-Kerry Blue States, so hopefully this means he can do more to play offense than get stuck in defense mode. Again that one Virginia poll smells like "OUTLIER!", so it probably shouldn't dissuade Obama from making a move here. And if we get any confirmation on the Selzer poll of Indiana, Obama may soon have an Option #6 to 270. :-)


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