Friday, September 19, 2008

Today's First Trackers

Here are the hot new numbers from Rasmussen and Research 2000-Daily Kos!

Rasmussen Tracking:

Obama 48%
McCain 48%

Research 2000 Tracking:

Obama 49%
McCain 42%

OK, it looks like these two polls are really diverging. Rasmussen shows a stable tie while Research 2000 shows a strong Obama lead. So who's right? We can't answer that, but we can shed some light on why the numbers are so different.

Basically, Rasmussen weights its number with Party ID while Research 2000, Diageo-Hotline, and Gallup don't. Diageo-Hotline and Rasmussen have also recently adjusted their samples to include more Republicans, so that can also explain why Rasmussen's numbers lately seem to be favoring McCain.

So what do all these polls mean? Well, they all confirm that the "McSurge" is completely gone while Obama's made his comeback. The renewed focus on the economy has really given Barack Obama his second wind, as he's making a connection with voters while McCain's many gaffes just remind voters that he's the self-proclaimed "non-expert on the economy". As long as the election remains focused less on personality-driven "scandaliciousness" and more on how we'll handle real problems like the economic downturn, Obama has the advantage.


Dizzy said...

You may be one of 3 or 4 people I know who can explain polling numbers (and discuss sampling methods) without sounding like a total academic ... you have the knack for making it digestible for the mainstream electorate.

I envy you for that, my friend.

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