Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Deadheat in Georgia

A Republican pollster, Insider Advantage, finds that the race for Georgia is razor thin:

McCain, 48%
Obama, 47%
Barr, 1%
Other, 1%
Undecided, 3%

Comments the president of Insider Advantage:
Ironically, Obama had a better shot of winning Georgia than North Carolina or Florida but he’s letting it slip away.
From time to time, I offer a guestimate of what is occurring in early voting in Georgia. As of today, 1,206,891 Georgians have cast early ballots, and among them, 35.4% (n=427,076) were African American.

If we assume that African Americans in Georgia cast 95% of their votes for Obama and 5% of their votes for McCain and further assume that 30% of other voters cast their votes for Obama and 70% of their votes for McCain, these are the numbers that result:

401,451 African American
241,632 Other

25,625 African American
563,808 Other

In other words, early voting in Georgia, given my assumptions, would be:

Obama 53.2
McCain 48.8


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