Tuesday, October 28, 2008

First trackers of the day

All three morning trackers suggest that a week out from the national election, the polls have tightened. Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 51
McCain 46

These were Rasmussen's numbers yesterday as well. Rasmussen observes:
Nationally, Obama has now been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 33 straight days. During that 33-day stretch, Obama’s voter support has stayed between 50% and 52% every day while McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range.
Research 2000/Daily Kos reports this morning:

Obama 50
McCain 43

The numbers yesterday were, that is, 50-42. Dkos Poll Guru DemFromCT comments:
On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +9 Sat, +5 Sunday and +6 Mon, with a +11 Friday sample rolling off.
Zogby saw slight decline in both Obama's and McCain's numbers, though by rounding. McCain's number seem stable:

Obama 49
McCain 45

Yesterday, the numbers were 50-45. Zogby doesn't make any headline-grabbing pronouncements about the statistical noise in his numbers, but he does make this interesting observation:
Among those voters who have already cast ballots, Obama continues to lead – today by 18 points, while Obama and McCain are dead–even among those who are likely to vote but who have not yet cast their ballots.
Hotline Diageo for the third straight day posts the same numbers:

Obama 50
McCain 42

There is an interesting article by pollster Steve Lombardo at pollster.com. The article is entitled, "Eight Days to Go and McCain Can't Seem to Break Through." The take away paragraph perhaps is this:
While McCain has stopped most of his downward slide, he still lags Obama nationally and in key states. The LCG regression analysis shows McCain behind by 7.6 points. If the current trend holds, McCain will lose the election by 8.7 points. To give you an idea of the hole McCain finds himself in, we have not seen a single reputable national poll showing McCain at or above 50% in more than a month.


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