Thursday, October 16, 2008

First trackers of the day

Tomorrow will be the first day we see any post-debate data. All the data today reflect the situation prior to the debate last evening. So what's the word of the day? Same as yesterday, "stable."

Rasmussen finds:

Obama 50
McCain 46

Rasmussen observes:
It’s the first time since September 25 that McCain’s support has reached 46%, but Obama has now enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-one straight days.
That's three weeks with a lead outside the standard error by a factor of at least two.

Research 2000/Daily Kos tells the story this way:

Obama 52
McCain 41

R2K has had Obama at 51 to 53 since September 29. During the same period, McCain has occupied a very narrow band of 40 to 42. During that period, he has been at 41 for eight days and 40 for nine days.

Diageo Hotline remains unchanged:

Obama 49
McCain 41

Those are the same numbers they reported yesterday.

Zogby, staggering like a sailor on a bender, moves the race from a four-point to a five-point lead by Obama:

Obama 49
McCain 44

I like to make fun of Zogby, but even though he reports a different margin every day, his numbers vary within the standard error, and the only interpretation we can draw is that he is a measuring a stable race.

In fact, even though Zogby sees a point shift in Obama's favor and Rasmussen sees a point shift in McCain's favor, all of these data tell the story of an electorate that seems to be hardening its opinion about who should be the next president.


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