Friday, October 17, 2008

First trackers of the day

Okay, my general take on things is this: Obama's numbers seem to be holding steady, though not quite as robust as last week, but McCain's numbers might be rising. There always has been a sense that the race would tighten at the end, and we're getting toward the end of this now. Three of the trackers this morning show the race's margin stable with where it was yesterday, but of course, the numbers tightened for Rasmussen yesterday, and his numbers are the same today as they were yesterday:

Obama 50
McCain 46

Rasmussen observes:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. These figures reflect a remarkably stable race in which Obama has enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-two straight days. The last time McCain was up by even a single point was one month ago today.
What has me a little spooked this morning are the numbers from Research 2000/Daily Kos. Their numbers are still quite comfortable, but the Thursday contribution to the three day total was just a six point race, so when Tuesday washes out, we'll see a change in Obama's lead:

Obama 52
McCain 42

Comments DemFromCT:
On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +12 Tues, +10 Wed and +6 Thurs. Friday's Today's polling will start to reflect the debate (one third of the sample is post-debate), and the +6 Thurs is a significant noticable change, for the first time in days. However, while the one-day Thursday numbers are 50-44, an improvement in McCain's numbers, Obama has been at 50 or more since 9/29 . . . . As Tuesday's number drops off tomorrow, the topline number should tighten.
Battleground/GWU also shows tightening in the race:

Obama 49
McCain 45

That's a one point drop in Obama's numbers and a one point increase in McCain's numbers.

Now, the other two polls are Diageo Hotline and Zogby, and they give some reassurance that we are holding our own.

Diageo/Hotline actually shows a 10-point race this morning:

Obama 50
McCain 40

Comments Diageo/Hotline:
Obama's 10% lead in today's Diageo/Hotline release equals his largest advantage ever in the tracking poll.
Zogby's numbers remain even with where they were yesterday:

Obama 49
McCain 44

Okay, Obama's numbers in these polls range from 49 to 52, and McCain's numbers range from 40 to 46. We'll see what comes next. We need trends to make an analysis. Pollster dot com's trend analysis is this:


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