Saturday, October 18, 2008

Gallup Daily

Gallup Daily is out with its three sets of numbers. Among registered voters, McCain declined by one point. In the Traditional Likely Voter Model, the numbers and margins remain the same as they have been. In the Expanded Likely Voter Model, Obama loses one point and McCain gains one point.

Registered Voters
Obama 50
McCain 41

Expanded Likely Voter Model (This accounts for intent to vote.)
Obama 50
McCain 46

Traditional Likely Voter Model (This accounts for history and intent.)
Obama 49
McCain 47

Two notes:

1. Gallup Daily today shows McCain's numbers among registered voters declining a point so that he trails Obama by eight, but the expanded likely voter (intent to vote, including new voters) shows Obama dropping a point as McCain rises a point. It is possible that this is all statistical noise. It also is possible that it shows there is some complacency that, "Obama is going to win, and I don't need to vote."

2. In 2004, toward the end of the race, we also started to see the trackers moving towards each other. My guess is that as we get closer to election day, people become more settled in their choices, and the polls increasingly stop measuring shifting opinions in the electorate. The tracking polls now indicate these results:

Zogby, Obama +4
Gallup Expanded Likely Voter Model, Obama +4
Rasmussen, Obama +5
Research 2000/Daily Kos, Obama +7
Diageo Hotline, Obama +7


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